Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Pressure is released periodically, and it is looking for support at lower levels [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fluctuations in US biodiesel policy have intensified short - term risks [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force, and the market is oscillating [2][13]. - **Soybean**: The spot market is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is slightly stronger and oscillating [2][13]. - **Corn**: It is running in an oscillating pattern [2][16]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [2][21]. - **Cotton**: It fluctuates following market sentiment [2][25]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [2][30]. - **Pigs**: Short - term expectations have weakened [2][32]. - **Peanuts**: They are oscillating strongly [2][37]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Data - Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change, and night - session closing price was 8,022 yuan/ton with a 0.48% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% change, and night - session closing price was 7,786 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [6]. Macro and Industry News - EU is still discussing whether to classify Malaysia as a low - risk country under the EUDR, which may lead to trade restrictions on Malaysian palm oil. GAPKI urged the Indonesian government to postpone the plan to raise palm oil export special tax. Small - scale palm oil producers face financial inequality issues [7][8]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4168 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 4185 yuan/ton with a + 0.48% change. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 2899 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - session closing price was 2896 yuan/ton with a - 0.21% change [13]. Macro and Industry News - CBOT soybeans were fluctuating, affected by South American soybean harvests, US - China trade relations, and US weather conditions. US soybeans lack price competitiveness under current tariffs, and Brazil's record - high soybean harvest dominates the global export market [15]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - C2507's day - session closing price was 2,335 yuan/ton with a - 0.43% change, and night - session closing price was 2,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.09% change. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change, and night - session closing price was 2,348 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change [17]. Macro and Industry News - There were price differences in corn collection and sales in different regions, and the price of imported grains such as sorghum and barley was also reported [18]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 17.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6170 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5855 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress was slower year - on - year, USDA expected Brazil's production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season, India's 24/25 season sugar production was 2569 tons by the end of April, and Brazil's April exports decreased by 18% year - on - year [21]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,390 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, and night - session closing price was 13380 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change. ICE US cotton 07's closing price was 65.14 cents/pound with a - 0.53% change [25]. Macro and Industry News - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was light, the cotton yarn market had some improvements but the profit situation deteriorated, and ICE cotton lacked upward - driving force due to good weather in US cotton - growing areas [26][27]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Egg 2507's closing price was 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.06% change, and Egg 2509's closing price was 3,788 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.21% change [30]. Macro and Industry News - No macro and industry news was provided for eggs. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Henan's spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 14350 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15190 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts also showed certain changes [34]. Market Logic - The price spread between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted, group - farm piglet sales decreased, and short - term expectations weakened. The 11 - 1 reverse spread could be considered for medium - and long - term layout [36]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase. PK510's closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change [37]. Spot Market Focus - In different peanut - producing areas, the supply from farmers was limited, and the purchasing intention of downstream customers improved. Most areas had a strong price trend [38].

从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-05-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆窄幅下跌，EPA 已向白宫提交了 RVO 规则供审核，但传言提交的版本大幅低于市场预期，美 豆油弱势带动美豆下跌。周末国内豆粕现货小幅下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报2880元/吨。据MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨 量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧，有利润的情况下当地也会积极出货 ...

期货热点追踪 豆油领跌拖垮油脂市场！棕榈油增产季将至，价格还要跌多少？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 菜籽类市场周报 新年度供需格局好转 拖累菜系盘面价格 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，主力09合约收盘价9277元/吨，较前一周-78元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：短期市场聚仍焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实。不过，USDA报告预计全球菜籽 2025/26年度产量为8955.8万吨，同比增加445.9万吨，期末库存预计为923.2万吨，同比增加8.1 万吨。新年度供需格局好转，远期价格承压。其它方面，由于原油期价冲高回落，且市场担忧美 豆油生物燃料需求不及预期，市场情绪快速降温，美豆油高位回落。同时，棕榈油产地逐渐步入 季节性增产季，棕榈油价格仍将承压。国内方面，菜籽进口到港量下滑，菜油供应端压力减弱。 且关税增加后，加菜油的进 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The domestic soybean price fluctuated yesterday, with the remaining domestic soybean supply decreasing, which is the main support for the market. The temporary supply shortage of imported soybeans has been alleviated, but there is no significant increase at present, so the price still has support. The remaining supply of farmers is limited, and the price quotes are chaotic, but the overall sentiment of holding out for higher prices is strong. Long - term attention should be paid to the state reserve rotation policy, farmers' spring sowing, and remaining supply situation [3] - The domestic peanut price rose yesterday. As of May 8, 2025, the national average price of common peanuts decreased by 0.24% compared with last week. The domestic peanut trading atmosphere is poor, the supply from production areas is limited, middlemen purchase on demand, and most of them hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the existing inventory. Traders purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is dull. Recently, major oil mills have started operations one after another, and it is expected that they will make stable purchases in the short term, which will effectively relieve the pressure on production areas to sell goods and boost market sentiment [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2505 contract yesterday was 4,172.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.05% [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 12, a change of + 2 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information Summary - On Wednesday, most contracts of soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.3%. Only the May contract closed slightly lower. At the close, soybean futures ranged from a decline of 9.25 cents to an increase of 5.25 cents. The May contract fell 9.25 cents to close at 1,067 cents/bu; the July contract rose 5.25 cents to close at 1,077.75 cents/bu; the November contract rose 1.75 cents to close at 1,061.25 cents/bu [2] - On May 15, the loading price of national standard first - class 39% protein medium - sized tower grain in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 2.08 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Baoqing, Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang, it was 2.06 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Fuyin, Jiamusi, Heilongjiang, it was 2.07 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nehe, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, the loading price of national standard first - class 41% protein medium - sized tower grain was 2.18 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nenjiang, Heihe, Heilongjiang, it was 2.16 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hailun, Suihua, Heilongjiang, it was 2.17 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract yesterday was 8,226.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.12% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,300.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.48%. The spot basis was PK05 - 226.00, a change of + 10.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 4.24% [3] Market Information Summary - Currently, the quoted price of Baisha common peanuts in Huangludian, Henan is 4.20 - 4.25 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Haohua common peanuts in Junan, Linyi, Shandong is about 3.90 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the quoted price of 308 common peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.00 - 4.10 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Huayu 23 common peanuts in Xingcheng is 4.18 - 4.20 yuan/jin; the purchase price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin production area is 4.05 - 4.15 yuan/jin [3]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：博弈持续 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月16日 2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply of Brazilian new - season soybeans is increasing, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. With the recovery of oil mill operations, the soybean meal inventory will gradually rise. The supply pressure is emerging, and the support from import costs will weaken, so the soybean meal price will face significant pressure. Also, the positive outcome of the China - US talks may reduce the impact of the trade war on US soybeans and domestic soybean meal [2] - For corn, the supply of domestic corn is abundant as the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high. The demand side is weak as deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2923 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2537 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2960 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian soybean exports: In May 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 14.268 million tons, 13% higher than last week's forecast. From January to April, Brazil exported 40.42 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 41.5% of last year's total exports [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Brazilian new - season soybeans are arriving at Chinese ports, and the arrival volume will exceed 10 million tons from April to July. The supply pressure is emerging, and the import cost support will weaken [2] - Demand: Not specifically mentioned, but the overall supply - side situation indicates potential downward pressure on prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2342 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.48%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - French corn: In the 2024/25 season, France's corn production is expected to be 13.973 million tons, 15.9% higher than the previous season. Exports are expected to be 4.702 million tons, up 11.5%, and the ending inventory is estimated to be 3.472 million tons, 2.5% higher than last month's forecast [3] Market Analysis - Supply: The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. The downstream提货 speed is slow [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 18.08 | 17.66 | -2.32% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.55 | 65.49 | -0.09% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6185.0 | 6165.0 | -0.32% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5995.0 | 6000.0 | 0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.28% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14350.0 | 14450.0 | 0.70% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | -321.0 | -320.0 | -0.31% | ...