南华期货镍&不锈钢产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 镍不锈钢尾盘跳水，周内主要跟随大盘以及宏观层面情绪带动偏多，贵金属以及有色领跌带领盘面大幅回 调，资金面同步炒作对盘面指引较深。此外配额发放节奏持续笼罩上方，PT Vale称目前获批配额仅为生产需 求的30%，进一步做实配额缩减预期。印尼方面周中有加强布局下游终端电池领域叙事，中长期或对供需格 局造成影响，短期推动不足。基本面上目前改善有限。菲律宾以及印尼主要矿区均进入雨季，产量以及装船 量均会受到影响，矿端发运受限。新能源方面目前价格跟随镍价上涨，节前大多厂商已经完成备货，目前高 价下进一步采购意愿不足。镍铁跟随盘面同步反弹，前期龙头采购价上行，但是目前成本高企下下游接受意 愿有所降低。不锈钢周内震荡偏强。目前盘面较高情况下库存有一定上升。现货方面盘价持续上调，试图借 趋势挺价，但是节前实际高位成交有限，下游高价接受度较低，目前多空博弈不减。 近端交易逻辑 —尾盘深度回调，受大盘影响为主 当前镍不锈钢期货盘面的近端逻辑以宏观以及大盘指引为主，近期贵金属以及有色均有不同程度的调整，沪 镍近期交易逻辑有所淡化，跟随大盘波动偏多。此外印尼端政策扰动仍有余波，基本面底部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices driven by a sudden shift in policy expectations following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced liquidations across various asset classes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices experienced a historic drop, with spot gold falling over 12% and silver plunging more than 35%, marking the largest single-day declines in nearly 40 years [1][2]. - Gold prices fell from a peak of 5598.75 USD/oz to a low of 4682 USD/oz, closing at 4880.03 USD/oz, while COMEX gold futures dropped 8.35% [2]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with prices hitting a high of 121.65 USD/oz before plummeting to 74.28 USD/oz, closing down 26.42% [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Warsh's nomination is perceived as a shift towards a more hawkish stance for the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the previously supportive narrative for gold prices, leading to a significant sell-off [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's approach may disrupt the narrative of central bank independence that had previously supported rising gold prices, resulting in a sharp increase in the dollar index [3]. Group 3: Margin Calls and Liquidation - The article highlights a vicious cycle of forced liquidations triggered by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a downward spiral of selling pressure [4][5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange and domestic exchanges raised margin requirements, exacerbating the liquidity crunch and forcing leveraged positions to liquidate [4][5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - Prior to the crash, the gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's RSI reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a correction [6]. - The implied volatility for gold ETFs surged to 39.67, reflecting a market with low tolerance for error and a need for significant price adjustments to absorb profit-taking and emotional premiums [6]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The article notes that retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at much higher prices [7]. - Retail policies regarding returns on gold products vary, with many retailers not accepting returns once the items are out of their possession, complicating consumer reactions to the price crash [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the sharp decline, gold and silver recorded substantial gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [8]. - Analysts express divided views on the future of gold and silver, with short-term volatility expected due to ongoing forced liquidations, while long-term trends may favor a shift away from the dollar and increased central bank gold purchases [8][9].

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 ★国债期货行情简评： Ø ★国债期货日频择时策略： ★风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债表现分化，30年期主力合约收跌-0.33%，十年期主力合约涨0.11%，五年期主力合约 涨0.01%，两年期主力合约收跌-0.02% Ø 上周各品种基差分化，十债CTD券为250018，30号基差收于0.05元左右，与历史平均水平持平； 三十年期CTD券为210005，30号基差收于0.27元，高于历史基差的平均水平。 Ø 期债受到金银铜等商品的影响较小，上周表现震荡偏弱。随着1月的经济数据逐渐公布，预计通胀 等数据不弱，同时市场对春节和两会的股市上涨有所 ...

"金价暴跌， 手里的黄金基金该怎么办？" "大跌正好， 趁低买些首饰， 过年佩戴正合适。" 北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅。现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，遭遇40年来 单日最大跌幅。受国际金价急速下挫传导影响，国内首饰金价同步迎来大幅回调。 记者走访本地市场了解到，终端足金金饰销售持续火热，黄金回收业务亦同步升温，市场交投氛围十分活跃。有消费者一次性购入足金饰品263克，单笔 消费金额超过36万元。 市民购金热情未减。 黄金白银贵金属价格 为何"高台跳水"？ 受访分析人士均指出，金银价格的急跌，是受沃什获提名的消息触发，随后跌速加快。此前大量涌入贵金属市场的资金开始集中获利了结，叠加美元指数 快速拉升，使得以美元计价的黄金和白银对海外投资者而言成本陡增。数据显示，美元指数当日一度上涨约0.8%，对贵金属（价格）形成明显压制。 业内人士表示，本轮金价大幅波动之下，市民投资与消费心态呈现鲜明分化：有人逢低果断抄底、配置金银实物，有人担忧后续继续下跌而急于变现避 险，还有不少基金及实物持有者面对剧烈行情手足无措，多元心态交织，共同推高了整体市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum experienced a stage of unexpectedly large pullbacks, while palladium declined in tandem and was in a weak consolidation phase. Both platinum and palladium are considered weak. The price ranges are 500 - 600 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract in Guangzhou and 400 - 480 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract in Guangzhou [3][4]. - Platinum reached below the annual target value of $3000 per ounce and then lost its upward momentum. The forward discount in the London platinum market rapidly converged, and the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve disappeared. The change in the forward structure was likely due to the profit - taking of overseas forward long positions in the arbitrage portfolio after the narrowing of the internal - external price difference. There is a risk of further decline in the daily and weekly dimensions, but in the monthly and quarterly levels, platinum is expected to regain lost ground and revise its valuation upwards [4]. - Palladium showed more resilience than platinum in this pullback. Its London liquidity is tightening, ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, and there is a small inventory build - up in the US. It is still too early to say that palladium has returned to fundamental pricing, and it is expected to generally follow the fluctuations of other precious metals [4]. - Due to the significant fluctuations in the precious metals sector, all unilateral positions are recommended to enter on the right - hand side, and protection can be set through short - option positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) Trading Volume and Open Interest - As of the end of this week, the total open interest of platinum in Guangzhou was 33,860 lots, and the trading volume this week was 159,187 lots. The total open interest of palladium in Guangzhou was 12,615 lots, and the trading volume this week was 83,402 lots. Both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The price of platinum contract 08 is the lowest, and the structures of both platinum and palladium have switched to the B structure. Since platinum and palladium are in the initial listing stage, the inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has not been disclosed [8]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - In the short term, platinum has a large pullback and is expected to oscillate at a low level. One can consider the long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is below 1.2. In the first half of this week, palladium made up for its gains, and platinum had a significant pullback on Thursday and Friday, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to rapidly converge. As of the close on Friday, the overseas platinum - palladium ratio was 1.27, and the ratio in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.36 [10][12]. Overseas Futures - Spot Spread - **Platinum**: The spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract showed a large - scale inversion on Thursday but basically returned to the flat - water level on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply, changing from - $155 per ounce to $283 per ounce within the week [15]. - **Palladium**: The spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract fluctuated within a narrow range, reaching $10 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an enlarged fluctuation, with an average value of $40.2 per ounce this week [19]. Arbitrage Costs | Arbitrage Type | Cost | Spread | Profit Window | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Platinum Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 8.2 yuan/gram | - 7.8 yuan/gram | Not opened [21] | | Palladium Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 6.3 yuan/gram | - 20 yuan/gram | Not opened [23] | | Platinum Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 8.4 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [25] | | Palladium Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 6.2 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [27] | | Platinum Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 74.1 yuan/gram | 88.5 yuan/gram | 14.4 yuan/gram profit window [29] | | Palladium Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 57.5 yuan/gram | 51 yuan/gram | Not opened [31] | | Platinum Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Platinum Forward, Sell 2606) | 71.6 yuan/gram | 100.5 yuan/gram | 28.9 yuan/gram profit window [33] | | Palladium Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Palladium Forward, Sell 2606) | 54.7 yuan/gram | 59.5 yuan/gram | Almost no profit window [35] | Recycling Spread - This week, the platinum recycling discount widened and then rebounded to the level of - 86 yuan/gram, while the palladium recycling discount rapidly widened to the magnitude of - 100 yuan/gram [37]. ETF Holdings - This week, the platinum ETF holdings increased by 2.93 tons (about 94,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.92 tons (about 29,600 ounces). Both platinum and palladium ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, but the prices dropped significantly on Friday, so the subsequent flow of ETFs needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) Forward Discount Rates - In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discounts has diverged. The platinum forward discount continued to converge significantly, and on Friday, it broke the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve from Monday to Thursday, with the full - term discount now within 6%. The palladium forward discount quickly increased, reaching the level of 4% on Friday [44]. Inventory and Registered Warrant Ratio - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 655,200 ounces, approximately 20.37 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants increased accordingly, reaching 51.6% on Friday [45]. - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased to 224,000 ounces, approximately 6.97 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants continued to decline to 63.7% [48]. China's Import - Export Data - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and there has been a divergence between imports and net inflows. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both imports and exports increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. - **Palladium**: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, imports further increased to 5.68 tons, with a net inflow of 5.63 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance - A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance reached - 170 kg on Wednesday and returned to a positive value around Thursday. The London palladium fixing supply - demand balance also reached - 170 kg on Wednesday [57][58][59].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：加速下跌；白银：快速宣泄情绪 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银偏弱 价格区间：1000-1100元/克、21000-25000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.72%，伦敦银回升4.23%。金银比从前周的50.3回落至47，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.26%（2年期 3.52%），美元指数录得97.1。 ◆ 1月30日周四夜盘起，贵金属开启了历史性的暴跌，伦敦金从最高点接近5600美元在48小时内完成了约16%的跌幅，最低回到4700美元下方； 伦敦银则进一步彰显了其弹性，最高从121美元回到78美元附近，跌幅超过35%。当金银以超乎历史的斜率上行时 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场持稳运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4459元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸企出货价格基本稳定，部 分出版订单提货尚未结束，个别成交存在商谈空间；第二，周内华南地区个别产线停机，行业供给有所减量，但部分纸企库存压力仍存；第 三，临近春节，下游订单有限，备货热情一般，经销商多数稳价出货；第四，上游木浆价格走势偏弱，成本面对双胶纸支 ...

2026年1月30日晚，张刚目不转睛地盯着电脑上的COMEX黄金、白银期货报价实时走势，即便 是上厕所也不敢耽搁时间。 张刚是美国华尔街一家资产规模逾2亿美元的对冲基金的基金经理，管理着一只6000万美元的贵 金属投资基金，主要投向黄金ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）、COMEX黄金和白银期货以及期权 等衍生品。纽约商品交易所推出的COMEX黄金、白银期货是国际黄金、白银价格的重要参考。 这一晚，COMEX黄金、白银期货价格遭遇史诗级大跌。截至1月31日凌晨收盘时，COMEX黄金 期货主力合约报价从5410美元/盎司跌至4907美元/盎司，盘中最大跌幅逾12%，创下近40年以 来最大单日跌幅；COMEX白银期货主力合约报价从115.89美元/盎司跌至85.25美元/盎司，盘 中最大跌幅达到35.30%，创下1980年年代以来最大单日跌幅。 在大量资本涌入贵金属市场推高黄金、白银价格迭创新高后， 整个贵金属投资市场充满极度拥挤的买涨头寸、创纪录的看涨 期权购买量与极端的投资杠杆倍数，形成泡沫化投资氛围，任 何的风吹草动，都会引发资本争相"多杀多"，酿成黄金、白银 价格遭遇超预期的大幅回调。 作者：陈植 封图：图虫 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面供需双弱，情绪面占主导 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，产地部分煤矿产量继续提升，叠加前期因安监影响停减产的煤矿恢复正常，供应端继续增量，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量 周环比增加14.67万吨至1234.29万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.02%至85.87%。。进口方面，本周甘其毛都口岸通关车数维持高位运行，中国煤炭资源 网统计本周（1.26-1.29）甘其毛都口岸通关4天，日均通关1457车，较上周同期环比增加281车。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 焦炭首轮提涨于上周落地，涨后预计平稳运行，焦化厂心态普遍偏保守，且对炼焦煤的补库已接近尾声，进一步追高采购的意愿不强。本周全国日均 铁水产量为227.98万吨，较上周下降0.12万吨，铁水产量降至低位，对原料的刚性需求减弱。 。 ◆ 3、库存： ➢ 本周各环节焦煤总库存环比增35.3万吨，本周仍处冬储补库周期，坑口库存下 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：加速下跌；白银：快速宣泄情绪 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银偏弱 价格区间：1000-1100元/克、21000-25000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.72%，伦敦银回升4.23%。金银比从前周的50.3回落至47，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.26%（2年期 3.52%），美元指数录得97.1。 ◆ 1月30日周四夜盘起，贵金属开启了历史性的暴跌，伦敦金从最高点接近5600美元在48小时内完成了约16%的跌幅，最低回到4700美元下方； 伦敦银则进一步彰显了其弹性，最高从121美元回到78美元附近，跌幅超过35%。当金银以超乎历史的斜率上行时 ...