Core Viewpoint - 弘业期货's stock has experienced a decline in both price and trading volume, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance and market perception [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 26, 弘业期货's stock price dropped by 2.06% to 9.98 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10.058 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, 弘业期货's stock has decreased by 5.85%, with a decline of 1.29% over the last five trading days, 1.48% over the last twenty days, and 0.89% over the last sixty days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, 弘业期货 reported a revenue of 462 million CNY, representing a significant year-on-year decrease of 76.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.09 million CNY, down 87.27% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, 弘业期货 has distributed a total of 44.34 million CNY in dividends, with 14.11 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, 弘业期货 had 54,400 shareholders, a decrease of 13.10% from the previous period, with an average of 0 shares per shareholder [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 3.20 million shares, and new shareholder Southern Financial Theme Flexible Allocation Mixed A [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-26 上海地产政策超预期，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 1月CPI同比上升0.2%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：1月社融实现开门红，新增规模达7.22万亿元， 同比多增1662亿元，政府债券净融资回升，财政靠 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Go short on the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The US tariff policy has become the short - term main line, and the risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The US is imposing anti - subsidy taxes on solar cell components from India, Indonesia, and Laos, and may take tariff measures against China. If the US takes restrictive measures, China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Due to the increased market risk sentiment, the demand for gold as a safe - haven investment may increase. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US will impose anti - subsidy taxes on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The general subsidy rates for Indian, Indonesian, and Laotian producers/ exporters are set at 125.87%, 104.38%, and 80.67% respectively. The US may also take tariff measures against China, and China will defend its rights if the US proceeds with relevant actions [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1144.80 yuan/gram, closed at 1151.06 yuan/gram, with a 0.05% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. The night - session closed at 1153.90 yuan/gram, up 0.25% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 22205.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23029.00 yuan/kilogram, with a 3.14% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 413159 lots, and the open interest was 182667 lots. The night - session closed at 23365 yuan/kilogram, up 1.46% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 25, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.050%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.585%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2401 lots, and the short positions changed by - 774 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 270082 lots, a 52.62% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 4844 lots, and the short positions changed by 6908 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 981009 lots, a 91.04% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,094.19 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,108 tons, an increase of 278 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 25, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 7.03 yuan/gram, and for silver was 319.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 49.98, a - 3.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 58.65, a - 0.95% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 29252 kilograms, a 7.13% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 244086 kilograms, a 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile and bullish pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: It is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22500 yuan/kilogram and 24000 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Go short on the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On February 25, platinum and palladium prices rose overall. The PT2606 contract closed up 7.13% to 58 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 4.59% to 45.95 yuan/gram. [6] - Macroeconomic factors such as tariff policy uncertainty and Middle - East geopolitical tensions support the precious metals market. [6] - In the short - term, new tariff policies on key minerals may affect the short - term upward trend of the market. In the long - term, the global platinum supply - demand gap persists, and the global palladium supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve, providing long - term support for platinum and palladium. [6] - In the short - term, platinum and palladium are expected to remain relatively strong but with high volatility. It is recommended that investors follow the trend and mainly go long at low prices. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum: The platinum futures main contract closing price was 586 yuan/gram, up 6.19% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 600 yuan/gram; the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 yuan/gram, up 207.69%. [4] - Palladium: The palladium futures main contract closing price was 457.95 yuan/gram, up 4.45%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 453.5 yuan/gram, up 4.25%; the basis (spot - futures) was - 4.45 yuan/gram, up 28.99%. [4] International Prices - London spot platinum was 2278.1 dollars/ounce, up 5.65%; London spot palladium was 1805.984 dollars/ounce, up 2.97%. [4] - NYMEX platinum was 2287.6 dollars/ounce, up 5.99%; NYMEX palladium was 1837 dollars/ounce, up 3.70%. [4] Internal - External 15 - point Spread - The dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.9321, down 0.13%. [4] - The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum was 12.27 yuan/gram, up 52.11%; the spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum was 9.88 yuan/gram, up 31.06%. [4] Ratios and Inventory - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2796, an increase of 0.0210. The ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2294, an increase of 0.0320. [5] - NYMEX platinum inventory was 186,269 troy ounces, with a change of 0.00%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 578,195 troy ounces, with a change of 0.00%. [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position was 69,291, up 0.33%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 12,347, up 2.18%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position was 16,538, down 1.52%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was 513, down 4.09%. [5]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.38 with a 1.66 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 4.79 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.55 with a 15.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.59 with a 3.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.02 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.77 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.55 with a 1.29 bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.42 bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.04 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 95 billion yuan [4] - In February, the LPR rates remained unchanged: 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. From February 24th - 28th, 22524 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 14524 billion, 4000 billion, and 4000 billion maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. Also, on February 25th, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4735.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 3054.9, the CSI 500 rose 1.6% to 8527.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.52% to 8426.3. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 24812 billion yuan, an increase of 2628 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with rare earths, small metals, energy metals, real estate services, steel, non - ferrous metals, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the gains, while the film and television theater and advertising marketing sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 106320 with an 8.7% increase, IF open interest was 283440 with a 6.9% increase; IH volume was 52712 with a 24.8% increase, IH open interest was 108963 with a 9.6% increase; IC volume was 126978 with a 3.0% increase, IC open interest was 298578 with a 5.7% increase; IM volume was 166542 with a 2.9% decrease, IM open interest was 372430 with a 1.9% increase [6] - The IF basis for the current - month contract was 1.50%, next - month 1.34%, current - quarter 2.67%, and next - quarter 3.60%; the IH basis was - 1.70%, - 1.00%, 0.16%, and 2.08% respectively; the IC basis was - 0.27%, 1.07%, 3.39%, and 4.40% respectively; the IM basis was 3.90%, 4.43%, 6.80%, and 7.56% respectively [8] Group 3: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - Shanghai launched post - holiday real - estate regulatory optimization measures, shortening the social security or tax payment period for non - local residents to buy houses in the inner - ring area to 1 year, increasing the maximum first - home provident fund loan limit from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and further increasing it to 3.24 million yuan for multi - child families or those buying green buildings.沪籍 families buying their only new home are exempt from property tax [7] - Driven by favorable policies, the stock index is running strongly. With the expected policy benefits from the upcoming "Two Sessions", the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly. Long - term and medium - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [7]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-26 市场流动性概况 2026-02-25，股指板块成交6909.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.06%；持仓金额16226.11亿元，较上一交易日变动 +6.12%；成交持仓比为42.56%。 国债板块成交6891.49亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.76%；持仓金额9373.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.14%；成交持 仓比为70.65%。 基本金属板块成交5850.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+66.87%；持仓金额6717.58亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.00%； 成交持仓比为82.90%。 贵金属板块成交6387.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+71.52%；持仓金额5184.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.35%；成 交持仓比为152.20%。 能源化工板块成交4554.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.05%；持仓金额4816.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.42%； 成交持仓比为80.65%。 农产品板块成交3426.25亿元，较上一交易日变动+41.16%；持仓金额6244.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.07%；成 交持仓比为52.57%。 黑色建材板块成交1815 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Wednesday, the main 05 contract of soybean oil closed at 8,228 in the afternoon, with a daily change of 88 or 1.08%. The spot price of soybean oil generally increased by about 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. With the continuous confrontation between the US and Iran, the international crude oil price remained firm. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy was positive, and the market sentiment was bullish. CBOT soybean oil reached the key level of 60 cents/pound. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year-on-year, and the overall inventory of the three major oils slightly declined from the high level and was lower than the same period last year. The supply - demand fundamentals were gradually improving. It is expected that the upward momentum of soybean oil will continue, and long positions in the main contract are recommended to be held. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean oil is 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8,560 - 8,600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Wednesday, rapeseed oil futures first declined and then rose. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.38% at 9,244. After the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, so the supply of rapeseed oil might increase, while the downstream consumption was in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand was weak. However, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports was limited. There were continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation would still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. Driven by macro factors and the expectation of US biodiesel demand, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate with the oil and fat sector, and its own unilateral driving direction is still unclear. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively strong following the sector, but be cautious when chasing up. The upper resistance range of the 05 contract is 9,390 - 9,400, and the lower support range is 8,800 - 8,810 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Wednesday, palm oil futures opened lower, rose, and then fell back at the end of the session. The main 2605 contract closed down 0.16% at 8,848. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory at the origin was at a high level, putting pressure on the palm oil price. In March, Indonesia will increase the export tariff, which will indirectly benefit the export of Malaysian palm oil. There is still room for trading on the demand side during the Indian Ramadan stocking period, and the downside space of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy expectation in March. After the continuous decline before the festival, the downside space of palm oil may be limited. Consider looking for opportunities to go long on dips. The upper resistance range of the main contract is 9,000 - 9,020, and the lower support range is 8,650 - 8,700 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, the CBOT soybean 05 contract rose and temporarily closed at around 1,162 cents/bushel in the afternoon; the main 05 contract of soybean meal closed at 2,831 in the afternoon (daily change of 50 or 1.80%); the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 closed at 3,589 in the afternoon (daily change of 63 or 1.79%). With the positive expectation of biodiesel, the consumption of US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectations of US soybeans to China and India were not bad. Multiple positive expectations resonated, driving up the price of CBOT soybeans and the prices of Chinese soybean commodities. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year - on - year, and the market was still worried about the soybean supply in China before May. The situation of loose supply of oil and meal may gradually reverse. The valuation of soybean meal is low, and the positive driving factors are gradually emerging. The short - term price of the main soybean meal futures may be strong. Consider lightly laying out long positions. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean meal is 2,760 - 2,780 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3,750 - 3,780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Wednesday, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell back. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.57% at 2,312. Driven by the leading rise of soybeans, rapeseed meal followed and was relatively strong. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, while the demand entered the consumption off - season. Currently, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports is limited; there are continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation will still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can consider short - term range operations. The lower support level of the RM main contract is 2,190 - 2,200, and the upper resistance level is 2,340 - 2,350 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Wednesday, the futures prices showed a volatile consolidation trend. In the overseas market, there is a game between the high inventory of US corn and good export performance this year. However, the initial estimate of the planting area of US corn in the new year at the outlook forum decreased significantly, which provided some support for the futures price. The futures price is expected to continue the bottom - building trend. In the domestic market, the decrease in high - quality grain sources year - on - year and the phased supply - demand mismatch support the continuation of the market. The futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but considering the relatively high temperature this year, there is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, and the driving force for the improvement of downstream profits is limited. Be cautious about the upside space. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - long thinking. For option operations, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. The support range of the corn 2605 contract is 2,240 - 2,250, and the resistance range is 2,380 - 2,400; the support range of the corn starch 05 contract is 2,540 - 2,550, and the resistance range is 2,740 - 2,750 [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Wednesday, the main contract of soybean No. 1 increased in position and rose during the session, closing at 4,679 in the afternoon (daily change of 46 or 0.99%). Currently, the soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The futures price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. Consider holding long positions lightly. The resistance level of the 05 contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [7]. - **Live Pigs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of live pigs increased in position and stopped falling and rebounded. After the spot price fell below the cash flow, the breeding side showed a sentiment of reluctant to sell. On the first day after the Spring Festival, the futures price of live pigs opened low and went low to make up for the decline of the spot price during the holiday. The national average price was 10.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 0.70 yuan/kg compared to before the holiday. This week, the slaughter volume was at a seasonal low, and slaughtering enterprises were still in losses. In January, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. Currently, it is 101.6% of the normal reserve, and the inventory of breeding sows is still relatively sufficient. After the Spring Festival, the price of piglets slightly dropped to about 360 yuan/head, and self - breeding and self - raising returned above the cost. Currently, the far - month contracts of live pig futures show a premium over the near - end spot and near - month contracts. The pressure on the near - end spot is relatively large, and the monthly pattern maintains near - weak and far - strong. Wait for further confirmation of capacity reduction in the medium term, and the far - month premium may continue to widen. Cautious investors can hold long positions in far - month contracts. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,200 as the support level and 12,000 - 12,300 as the resistance level. Aggressive investors can wait for the release of spot pressure in the medium term and lightly go long on the 2607 contract below 12,000. For options, hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold long futures positions + sell deep out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the systematic fluctuations of the agricultural product sector [7]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of eggs opened low, rose, and fluctuated widely. After the Spring Festival, the futures price of eggs was strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. The far - month contracts increased in position and declined to repair the excessive discount to the spot price. After the spot price of eggs dropped to about 2.7 yuan/jin before the festival, it slightly opened higher to around 2.9 yuan/jin in the low - price areas after the festival. Currently, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry has decreased to 2.85 - 2.95 yuan/jin following the prices of corn and soybean meal, and the breeding profit has turned positive. Since farmers have continued to suffer deep losses since the fourth quarter, the number of culled chickens has also increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens in February was small, which alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, and the supply - demand pressure may continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the premium of the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs over the current off - season spot price has widened. Cautious investors are recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can go long on the 04 contract below 3,000 points. Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts in the historical low - price range. The support level of the 2604 contract is 3,000 - 3,100 points, and the resistance level is 3,390 - 3,420 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean No. 1 05**: The domestic soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Soybean No. 2 05**: The expectation of US soybeans is positive, driving up the prices of domestic soybeans. Pay attention to whether imported soybeans will be auctioned later. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Temporarily wait and see [11]. - **Soybean Oil 05**: The confrontation between the US and Iran has escalated, and the rise of international crude oil has driven up the prices of vegetable oils. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy is positive, and the trends of US soybeans and US soybean oil are strong. The upward driving force of Dalian soybean oil continues. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Hold long positions [11]. - **Rapeseed Oil 05**: There are positive factors, but the own driving direction still needs to pay attention to the evolution of China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Be cautious about short - term long positions [11]. - **Palm 05**: The high - frequency export data is negative, but there are still expectations for the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first quarter. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after stabilizing [11]. - **Soybean Meal 05**: US soybeans are running strongly, the Brazilian premium is firm, and the downstream consumption of Chinese soybean meal still has resilience. Soybean meal may bottom out and rebound. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05**: The supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the tariff policy is still variable. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - **Corn 05**: There is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, but the phased supply - demand mismatch support still exists. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - **Starch 05**: It follows the cost of corn and fluctuates within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - **Live Pigs 05**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Eggs 05**: The number of newly - opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of the consumption peak season. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties such as soybean No. 1 3 - 5, soybean No. 2 3 - 5, soybean oil 5 - 9, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For the corn 5 - 9 spread, it is recommended to go short on rallies [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For most spreads such as 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. The 05 rapeseed oil - rapeseed meal ratio is treated as bullish [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean oil, etc. [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures price, CNF arrival price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and opening rate of various fats and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF price, arrival duty - paid cost, and additional tariffs on the US [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, opening rate, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It shows the spot prices of live pigs and eggs in different regions and their price changes [20][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the weekly average prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other information of live pigs and eggs [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and other related price charts [25][27][28]. - **Fats and Oils**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and other data charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [35][42][47]. - **Feed**: It includes the price, inventory, consumption, and other data charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [51][64][72]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils It provides the historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put -

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be weakly volatile [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to buy on dips; aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][9][10][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; soda ash is recommended to short on rallies; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][15][17][18]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile; red dates are expected to move sideways [1][23][24][25]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are advised to be cautious about shorting in the 05 contract and short on rallies; eggs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - month contract if the culling does not accelerate; corn is for range trading; soybean meal is recommended to short on rallies; oils are advised to buy on dips [1][25][27][28]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as policy changes, inventory levels, and production capacity [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term may move sideways, and may be strongly volatile before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Medium - to long - term is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: May move sideways, pay attention to supply pressure [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded. It is expected to move sideways under the background of low valuation and weak driving force. Pay attention to the post - festival demand recovery progress [7]. - **Glass**: Supply has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and demand will be weak in the short term. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the post - festival volatility will increase [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - demand relationship is tight, and there is still support. After a rapid release of risks, it may stabilize. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory inflection point and macro - sentiment calming [9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation has improved, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains. Strengthen observation [10]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff increase and the Fed's policy, the medium - term price operation center has moved up. Range trading is recommended [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply may increase, and it is expected to continue to trade in a range. Pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun ore end [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to policies, export, inventory, and raw material prices [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [17]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the supply pressure will increase in March. Pay attention to raw material prices and downstream demand [18]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is enhanced, and the demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rates [19]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, and the demand is supported. It is expected to move sideways [20]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The inland market is relatively weak [20]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, and geopolitical situations [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [22]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The consumption expectation has recovered after the festival, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [23]. - **Apples**: The sales in the producing and selling areas are normal. It is expected to be strongly volatile [24]. - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the producing area is based on quality. It is expected to move sideways [25]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price is weakly adjusted. In the medium - to long - term, the supply will gradually tighten. The 05 contract is advised to short on rallies [25]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is seasonally weak. If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies in the near - month contract [27]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price is expected to move in a range. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range trading is recommended [28]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [29]. - **Oils**: In the short term, there is support below, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [29].

Group 1 - Information about sector fund flow [%] [1] - Information about sector trading volume change [%] [2] - Information about the price change of futures main contracts [3] - Information about the daily trading volume change of varieties [4]