【环球网财经综合报道】近日，全球贵金属市场经历剧烈波动，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）与上海期货交易所（上期所）相继出台新规，通 过上调保证金及涨跌停板幅度等措施强化市场风险管理。 芝商所大幅上调贵金属期货保证金 1月31日，在金价和银价经历数十年来最大幅度下跌后，芝加哥商品交易所宣布，自下周一收盘后，将全面上调Comex黄金、白银期货的保证 金要求。具体来看，黄金期货合约中，非高风险等级保证金从6%提高至8%，高风险等级保证金从6.6%提高至8.8%；白银期货合约调整幅度 更大，非高风险等级保证金从11%提高至15%，高风险等级保证金从12.1%提高至16.5%。此外，铂金和钯金期货合约的保证金也将同步提 高。 芝商所表示，此次调整是针对市场波动进行的"常规审查"结果，旨在确保抵押品覆盖充足，维护市场稳定运行。保证金上调意味着投资者需 缴纳更多资金以确保履约能力，这一举措虽在市场大幅波动时较为常见，但可能对资金量较小的参与者形成挤压。部分投资者可能因无法及 时追加保证金而被迫平仓，进一步加剧市场波动。 值得注意的是，本周早些时候，在贵金属价格快速上涨后，芝商所已上调过白银、铂金和钯金期货的保证金要求，显示出其对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline after a strong rally, with the April gold futures price dropping below $4,800 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% [1]. Price Movements - On January 30, the spot gold price fell by more than 12%, reaching a low of $4,682 per ounce, and closed down 9.25% at $4,880.03 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, with most products seeing a price drop of around 80 yuan per gram within two days [1]. - Major gold brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, reported significant price drops, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price falling from 1,706 yuan per gram on January 29 to 1,625 yuan per gram on January 31, a decrease of 81 yuan over two days [11]. Market Reactions - Consumers are responding to the price drop by purchasing gold, with reports of long queues at gold recycling centers and increased buying activity for investment gold bars [1][3][6]. - A consumer in Beijing spent over 200,000 yuan to buy 200 grams of gold, viewing it as a long-term investment despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. - In Nanchang, consumers expressed urgency to buy gold due to recent price declines, indicating a belief that prices may rise again soon [6][8]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to an overheated market, with volatility nearing historical extremes and speculative funds seeking to take profits [14][15]. - The gold price's steep ascent has been rare, with monthly increases exceeding 20% being historically uncommon since 1968 [15]. - Analysts suggest that the market may need time to stabilize and find a new equilibrium price following the recent volatility [16]. Institutional Responses - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications, have increased risk assessment requirements for clients engaging in gold transactions, reflecting heightened market risks [17][19]. - Other banks have adjusted investment thresholds and trading limits to remind investors of the risks associated with recent price fluctuations [22][23].

周度报告-国债期货 PMI 不及预期，但债市难大幅走强 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 张粲东 | 宏观策略高级分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Analyser] | F3085356 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0018866 | | Tel: | 63325888-1610 | | Email: | candong.zhang@orientfutures.com | 97 102 107 112 117 122 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.5 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 2年期国债期货 5年期国债期货 10年期国债期货 30年期国债期货（右轴） 元 元 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货走势分化 本周（01.26-02.01）国债期货走势分化。周一，市场消息面较为 平静，资金面小幅收敛，短端品种表现较弱。股市震荡偏弱， 此前表现较强的部分板块调整幅度相对较大，长端 ...

截至2026年1月30日当周，沪银期货主力合约收于27941元/千克，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持55480手。 本周(1月26日-1月30日)市场上看，沪银期货周内开盘报25228元/千克，最高触及32380元/吨，最低下探至24890元/千克，周度涨跌幅达15.82%。 消息面回顾： 中国银行调整白银延期合约业务参数，自2026年1月30日(星期五)收盘清算时起，保证金比例由48.26%调整为50.80%。 周四晚间，美元指数收跌。货币政策预期方面，特朗普宣称利率应下降2～3个百分点，并预告下周公布美联储主席人选，或强化未来宽松货币政 策的预期。 1月29日，上期所白银期货仓单482008千克，环比上个交易日减少26360千克。 机构观点汇总： 华联期货：消息面，虽然格陵兰岛局势近期有缓和迹象，不过双方博弈仍在继续，北欧资金抛售美国资产，中东冲突加剧，地缘政治风险难言平 息，市场避险情绪仍强，推动贵金属价格上涨。另外，新任美联储主席人选或于本周公布，短期可能成为市场焦点，继续关注美联储降息预期变 化以及地缘叙事带来的市场影响。商品属性方面，白银供应端增长显著乏力，而需求端有明显增量，光伏、新能源汽车、A ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the listing of specific futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, including paraxylene futures, bottle futures, short fiber futures, and options for PTA, paraxylene, and bottles, which will be open to foreign investors through qualified overseas brokerage firms [1][2] - The introduction of these products is expected to enhance the internationalization of China's futures market and has a profound impact on the globalization of futures instruments [1] - The PTA futures market has been stable since the introduction of foreign traders in 2018, with over 90% of national PTA production enterprises and 70% of polyester enterprises participating in PTA futures trading [1] Group 2 - The internationalization of the polyester sector is a crucial part of China's high-level opening of the futures market, complementing existing polyester futures and options markets, which will optimize investor structure and improve price discovery efficiency [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to conduct market cultivation and investor education activities to ensure the smooth implementation and stable operation of the internationalization of the polyester sector under the guidance of the CSRC [2]

很多人到现在还没意识到，2026年开年那一轮白银暴涨，真正不寻常的地方，不是涨得有多猛，而是美 国这一次，几乎没怎么反击。 要知道，过去几十年，不管是石油，粮食，还是金属，只要价格失控，华尔街总有办法"按一按"，做 空，加杠杆，放预期，甩合约，熟得不能再熟。 可偏偏这次白银一路往上蹿，从去年中到今年初翻了几倍，美国金融市场几乎是边骂边看，动作明显慢 了半拍，问题就出在一句话上，这一次，不是钱不够，是银子不在他们手里了。 管制白银开始 很多人以为白银行情是"市场突然发疯"，但如果你把时间线往前拨，会发现真正的转折点，早就埋下 了。 2026年1月，中国把白银正式纳入了出口国营贸易管理清单，这句话看着不刺激，但懂行的人一眼就明 白了，白银，从"你爱卖谁卖谁"，变成了"国家统一看着办"。 以前出口白银，是企业的事，现在出口白银，是国家层面的资源调度，这一步，等于直接告诉全球市场 一句话，这东西，我们要先顾自家用。 而这恰好戳中了美国最不舒服的地方，在很多人印象里，白银好像不如黄金"高级"，可现实是工业离不 开白银，但可以暂时没有黄金。 光伏板要用银浆，新能源车的电控系统要用银，半导体，通信设备，AI服务器，全都绕不 ...

近日持续飙高的贵金属出现"崩盘式"跳水，截至1月31日收盘，伦敦金报4865.35美元/盎司，下跌 9.45%，《每日经济新闻》记者统计发现，这创下近40年以来最大跌幅。 其他贵金属价格也未能幸免，白银收跌26.77%，报84.7美元/盎司，亦创下1980年年初以来的最大单日 跌幅。此外，现货铂金重挫约18%，现货钯金重挫约15%。 1月31日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者以消费者身份实地走访国内黄金珠宝交易核心的深圳水贝市场， 直击金价暴跌后的市场交易实况。对于近日黄金价格下跌，一位料商人士对记者表示：反正自己会锁仓 不出。 "现在的料不好拿。"对于料商不出货，一位商家解释称，一方面是因为现在金价暴跌，另一个原因则是 临近春节，料商接的料太多没办法处理。 部分料商选择暂不出货 "前天（1月29日）金价（1克）1200多元，今天1126.5元。"记者以消费者身份实地走访深圳水贝时，一 位专门售卖金条的商家表示，目前金条价格是大盘价加15元工费，金条1克到手是1141.5元，相较前天 的价格下跌超过50元，当被问及今日（1月31日）价格是否还会变动时，该商家表示需等到下周一，"今 天是周末，金价不会变动"。 在黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, particularly the significant price drop following a speculative surge, drawing parallels to historical events like the Hunt brothers' squeeze in 1980 and the quantitative easing speculation in 2011, suggesting that the current market may be facing a similar fate due to regulatory interventions and lack of fundamental support [1][18]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices began in November 2025, with the Shanghai silver main contract rising from 11,441 yuan/kg to a peak of 32,382 yuan/kg by January 30, 2026, marking a 183% increase, while the COMEX silver contract saw a 152% rise during the same period [6]. - The speculative frenzy led to significant interest in silver-related stocks, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous experiencing maximum gains of 273% and 233%, respectively, and the Guotou Silver LOF fund achieving a peak increase of 311.21% [6]. Regulatory Response - In response to the market volatility, the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin requirements for silver futures contracts, which contributed to a sharp decline in prices, with the Shanghai silver main contract dropping 17% to 24,832 yuan/kg shortly after the regulatory changes [2][10]. - The regulatory measures included targeted actions against investors engaging in abnormal trading behaviors, indicating a strong stance to maintain market order and prevent excessive speculation [9]. Investor Behavior - Investors, like Mr. Liu, initially profited from the silver surge but faced significant losses during the subsequent crash, highlighting the risks associated with speculative trading in volatile markets [4][12]. - The article notes that the current market sentiment is characterized by a blind rush into silver investments, with some investors purchasing silver-related assets without a clear understanding of the underlying fundamentals [8]. Historical Context - The article draws comparisons between the current silver market and past speculative bubbles, emphasizing that both the Hunt brothers' event and the 2011 surge ended with regulatory interventions leading to sharp declines in prices [16][18]. - Historical data shows that the current bull market in silver, which began in July 2022, has seen prices rise approximately 600% over three and a half years, echoing patterns seen in previous market cycles [13][17]. Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism about silver's future, noting that while the industrial demand for silver remains strong, the speculative nature of the current market could lead to significant price corrections if macroeconomic conditions shift [19][20]. - The interplay between silver's industrial applications and its financial attributes will be crucial in determining future price movements, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and regulatory developments [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation** - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - **Liquidity** - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - **Interest Rates** - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates** - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - **Exchange Rates** - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to sudden news from Canada. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production estimates for the US and Brazil were slightly revised upwards month - on - month, and the US export volume was slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet situation was still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Based on weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From January 15th to January 22nd, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.85 million tons for the current year; 230,000 tons were exported to China during the week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.65 million tons. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said he had no plans to sign any trade agreements with China after Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff. From January 16th to January 23rd, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The stock - to - use ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, the January forecast for US exports was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast [10]. - **Viewpoints**: The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to Canadian news. The January USDA report was slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet was better than in 2024/25. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week. Short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: It shows the basis trends of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract from 2022 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The report displays the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: It presents the 5 - month and 9 - month spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: It compares the precipitation of Brazilian and US soybeans with the same period of previous years, and provides precipitation data and temperature deviation data for different regions in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][41][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: It shows the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the export volume to China in the current and next market years, and the monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [48][49][51]. - **Chinese Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: It presents the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [57][58]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: It shows the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, the export volume to China, the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China from 2021 to 2025 [60][61][63]. - **Argentine Soybean Shipping to China**: It shows the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [66][67]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [71][72]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: It presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [74][75]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: It shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption**: It shows the cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - **Breeding Profit**: It presents the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [83][84].