Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation** - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - **Liquidity** - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - **Interest Rates** - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates** - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - **Exchange Rates** - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to sudden news from Canada. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production estimates for the US and Brazil were slightly revised upwards month - on - month, and the US export volume was slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet situation was still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Based on weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From January 15th to January 22nd, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.85 million tons for the current year; 230,000 tons were exported to China during the week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.65 million tons. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said he had no plans to sign any trade agreements with China after Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff. From January 16th to January 23rd, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The stock - to - use ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, the January forecast for US exports was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast [10]. - **Viewpoints**: The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to Canadian news. The January USDA report was slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet was better than in 2024/25. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week. Short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: It shows the basis trends of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract from 2022 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The report displays the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: It presents the 5 - month and 9 - month spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: It compares the precipitation of Brazilian and US soybeans with the same period of previous years, and provides precipitation data and temperature deviation data for different regions in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][41][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: It shows the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the export volume to China in the current and next market years, and the monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [48][49][51]. - **Chinese Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: It presents the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [57][58]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: It shows the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, the export volume to China, the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China from 2021 to 2025 [60][61][63]. - **Argentine Soybean Shipping to China**: It shows the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [66][67]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [71][72]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: It presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [74][75]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: It shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption**: It shows the cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - **Breeding Profit**: It presents the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [83][84].

在金银价格暴跌之际，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）于当地时间周五宣布上调Comex黄金和白银期 货的交易保证金要求。根据声明，对于非高风险账户，黄金期货的保证金将从当前合约价值的6%提高 至8%，高风险账户的保证金则从6.6%上调至8.8%。白银方面，非高风险账户的保证金将从11%升至 15%，高风险账户将从12.1%提高至16.5%。铂金和钯金期货的保证金也将相应上调。相关调整将于下周 一收盘后生效。 3、众议院休会无法审议拨款法案 美联邦政府部分"停摆" 当地时间30日晚，美国参议院以71票赞成、29票反对的结果，通过了1.2万亿美元的联邦政府多个 部门剩余财年拨款法案，为国会避免政府长期停摆铺平了道路。但由于众议院预计要到下周一（2月2 日）才能复会并安排投票，相关拨款无法在现有预算授权到期前完成立法程序。美国联邦政府于当地时 间1月31日零时进入技术性、部分"停摆"状态。（央视新闻） 1、特朗普称庞大舰队驶向伊朗 已超委内瑞拉 据环球时报援引埃菲社1月30日报道，美国总统特朗普30日警告称，驶向伊朗的舰队规模"甚至比部 署在委内瑞拉的舰队还要大"，但他为与德黑兰达成协议敞开大门。报道称，特朗普在椭圆形办公 ...

贵金属市场出现史诗级下跌。截至31日收盘，现货黄金盘中一度跌破每盎司4700美元，收盘下跌了 9.6%，回到4860美元附近。现货白银价格盘中更是一度暴跌超过30%，收盘则回到每盎司85美元附近。 受到影响，国内金饰价格31日大幅下调，部分品牌金饰克价较前一日跌超100元。其中，周大福足金饰 品报1625元／克，较前一日跌60元，老庙黄金报1546元／克，较前一日跌144元。 从极速拉升到高位跳水 最近一周，国际黄金市场呈现剧烈波动。数据显示，1月26日早盘，现货黄金率先突破5000美元整数关 口，午后再度攀升至5100美元；1月28日黄金持续爆发，早盘突破5200美元，午后冲上5300美元，尾盘 则升至5400美元，单日连破三道关口；1月29日早盘涨势不减，突破5500美元并逼近5600美元这一重要 整数位，4天内完成6道整百关口的突破，创下全球黄金市场短期上涨新纪录。 不过，这一轮上涨势头在巅峰时刻戛然而止。1月29日当天，金价在创下历史新高后急转直下，现货黄 金价格从每盎司5530美元附近跌至每盎司5105.83美元，日内最大跌幅达5.7%，一度跌超400美元。1月 30日，金价呈现单边急速下行，盘中一 ...

2026年1月30日晚夜盘，豆粕、玉米系列期权正式在大连商品交易所（以下简称"大商所"）挂牌交易， 首批挂牌以M2607、C2607期货合约为标的的系列期权合约。作为国内农产品期权市场的重要创新举 措，系列期权为豆粕、玉米产业链企业提供更灵活高效的套保选择，标志着我国商品期权市场在农产品 领域的期限覆盖与功能适配迈上新台阶。 上海源耀农业公司相关负责人表示，系列期权推出后，能更好地匹配企业偏短期的现货头寸，在期限灵 活性与成本控制方面的优势更为突出。希望交易所未来能研发推出更多短周期期权产品，更好满足产业 企业精细化套保需求。 精准匹配产业短期套保需求 诸城兴贸玉米开发有限公司期货部蒋雷也表达了类似的观点，玉米贸易具有连续性，系列期权能更好匹 配企业月度风险管理节奏，助力稳定生产经营。 据了解，作为大商所首批短周期期权产品，此次挂牌的豆粕、玉米系列期权，是在现有常规期权合约的 基础上增挂的月度期权合约，标的期货合约与常规期权相同，通过新增"MS"专属标识区分交易代码， 形成"常规期权+系列期权"的互补格局，有效满足产业在部分月份上套保工具的空白。 期权市场"量质齐增" 工具持续创新 与常规期权相比，系列期权的 ...

早上好！ 昨夜今晨，黄金、白银价格继续大幅下跌。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4800美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过 10%；白银期价一度跌破80美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过30%。截至收盘，纽约黄金下跌8.35%，报4907.5 美元/盎司；现货黄金重挫9%，报4891.43美元/盎司；纽约白银下跌25.5%，报85.25美元/盎司。国内夜 盘方面，沪金收跌9.83%，沪银收跌17%。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.73%，在汇市尾市收于96.989。 数据方面，据美国商品期货交易委员会最新消息披露，截至1月27日当周，纽约商品交易所黄金投机客 将净多头头寸削减17742份合约，至121421份合约；白银投机客将净多头头寸削减4032份合约，至7294 份合约。 MKS普安普贵金属公司金属策略主管尼基・希尔斯在一份报告中称：2026年1月的交易已收官，这一月 将成为贵金属市场历史上波动最剧烈的一个月。 火爆的市场为何突然降温？有何突发原因？渣打银行大宗商品研究全球主管苏琪・库珀表示，市场本就 存在回调需求，触发因素或为多重因素叠加，既包括美联储主席人选的公布，也涉及更宏观的资金流动 层面。 弘业期货有色金属研究员 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant declines, with New York gold futures dropping over 10% to below $4800 per ounce, and silver futures falling over 30% to below $80 per ounce [1] - As of the close, New York gold was down 8.35% at $4907.5 per ounce, while spot gold fell 9% to $4891.43 per ounce; New York silver decreased by 25.5% to $85.25 per ounce [1][2] - Domestic night trading saw Shanghai gold drop by 9.83% and Shanghai silver by 17% [1] Group 2: Speculative Positions - According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of January 27, speculators reduced their net long positions in gold by 17,742 contracts to 121,421 contracts, and in silver by 4,032 contracts to 7,294 contracts [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - The volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to multiple factors, including the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair and macro-level capital flows [4] - Analysts suggest that the recent price drops were triggered by a decrease in market panic due to easing tensions in Iran, a strong rebound in the dollar, and profit-taking by long positions [4][5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the instability in Venezuela and Iran, as well as ongoing conflicts in various regions, have previously driven up precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5][6] Group 4: Consumer Impact - The rapid fluctuations in gold prices have led to significant daily price changes in retail gold jewelry, with prices increasing by nearly 100 yuan per gram within a day [7][9] - Despite rising prices, consumer demand remains strong, with many buyers motivated by the "buy high, sell higher" mentality [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that while the long-term trend for gold remains upward, there are short-term risks of further corrections [11] - The expectation of continued central bank demand for gold and the potential for increased allocations in a "de-dollarization" context are seen as supportive factors for gold prices in the medium to long term [11]

昨夜今晨，黄金、白银价格继续大幅下跌。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4800美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过 10%；白银期价一度跌破80美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过30%。截至收盘，纽约黄金下跌8.35%，报4907.5 美元/盎司；现货黄金重挫9%，报4891.43美元/盎司；纽约白银下跌25.5%，报85.25美元/盎司。国内夜 盘方面，沪金收跌9.83%，沪银收跌17%。 | 脂自选 总览 | 国内 | 星际 | 今日解读 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 能源化工 | 贵金属 | 有色金属 | | | 名称 | ◀ 最新: | 涨幅%; | 涨跌 # | | 微型COMEX黄金主连 MGCW0 | 4914.9 | -8.22% | -439.9 | | 微型COMEX白银主连 SILWO | 85.16 | -25.58% | -29.27 | | COMEX黄金主连 GCW0 | 4907.5 | -8.35% | -447.3 | | COMEX白银主连 SIWO | 85.250 | -25.50% | -29.179 | | 铂金主连 PLWO | 2178.2 | -16.81 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, has led to increased market investment activity, prompting two gold and silver-themed LOF products to announce purchase limits [1] - As of January 28, the international spot gold price reached a new high of $5,300 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 2% and a cumulative rise of over 21% since early 2026 [1] - The silver market also experienced a historic surge, with international spot silver prices surpassing $100 per ounce and silver futures rising over 60% since early 2026 [1] Group 2 - Regulatory bodies have taken swift action to curb market overheating and prevent violations, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusting margin requirements and trading limits for nickel and other futures contracts [2] - On January 28, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for silver deferred contracts, effective January 30 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also implemented measures against clients who exceeded trading limits in silver and tin futures, indicating heightened regulatory scrutiny in the precious metals market [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current high investment sentiment in the precious metals market, while supported by macroeconomic narratives, may lead to irrational trading behaviors due to rapid price increases [3] - The manager of the Bosera Gold ETF highlighted gold's role as a strategic investment during periods of economic and political uncertainty, especially as equity market valuations are high and cryptocurrency volatility is declining [4] - Silver's long-term outlook is expected to remain strong due to significant supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, alongside declining inventories [4]

CHIll Andrews 2026年1月30日 中信期货研究所 宏观研究组 投资咨询业务资格: 正监许可 2012 669号 【贵金属】异动点评 1月30日金银价格自高位回落。伦敦金现盘中一度下探至5067美元/盎司附近:伦敦银同步走弱,价格回落至100美元/盎司附 近。在前期连续快速拉升并刷新历史高位后,贵金属整体进入高位震荡并伴随回落,短期价格波动明显放大。 美联储主席提名预期持续扰动市场,美元走强压制贵金属价格。特朗普表示将很快公布下一任美联储主席候选人,市场对 凯文 · 沃什获提名的预期进一步升温,并将其解读为相对更偏鹰的政策情景之一,美元阶段性走强,对金银形成持续压力。 从交易层面看,当前回落仍主要由预期变化与仓位调整驱动,尚未演变为系统性风险出清。 在风险偏好阶段性回落背景下,贵金属出现一定"流动性出清"特征。前期快速上涨积累了较高的短线多头与杠杆头寸, 在美元反弹与政策预期扰动下,获利了结与被动减仓共振,放大了回撤幅度,但并未伴随实际金融条件的系统性收紧。 展望后市,金银预计整体维持高位震荡格局。若沃什提名预期继续强化,美元与政策立场交易或对贵金属形成阶段性压 制,但美联储独立性争议,财政扩张 ...