Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - **Price and trading volume**: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 22 to May 6 are presented, as well as the price data of rapeseed meal futures and spot from April 22 to April 30. - **Warehouse receipts**: The statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 21 to May 6 show an overall upward trend. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated upwards. - **Inventory and processing**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounded from a low level [14][15][16][24][25][26][28][30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal closed up in a fluctuating manner, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually recovering. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure, and the market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 68, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decreased, but capital flowed in. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the rapeseed meal price will return to range - bound trading [10].

2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期偏弱，下方有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：关注二育节奏 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间偏强 | | --- | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,974 | 涨跌幅 -2.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 7,912 | 涨跌幅 -0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 7, ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 6, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Risk of unilateral correction, relatively strong among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans fluctuated during the holiday, Dalian soybean meal may run weakly [2][17] - Soybean: Range - bound [2][18] - Corn: Range - bound with an upward bias [2][20] - Sugar: Range consolidation [2][25] - Cotton: Still lacks upward drivers [2][29] - Eggs: Range adjustment [2][34] - Hogs: Trading volume decreased during the holiday, focus on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2][36] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mill purchases [2][40] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,148 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton. MPOB monthly report forecast shows that Malaysia's April 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.79 million tons, up 14.8% month - on - month; production is expected to be 1.62 million tons, up 16.9%; exports are expected to be 1.1 million tons, up 9.7% [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating short - term weakness [16]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Soybean oil main contract closed at 7,832 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.67% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a risk of unilateral correction [16]. Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 2,920 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (- 1.91%). CBOT soybean 07 contract closed at 1046 cents/bu, down 12.25 cents/bu (- 1.16%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating potential weak operation [19]. Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2507 contract closed at 4,188 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.19%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2507 contract closed at 2,377 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. C2509 contract closed at 2,392 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. As of April 27, the U.S. corn sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the five - year average of 22% [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a range - bound with an upward bias [23]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price was 17.43 cents/lb, up 0.16 cents/lb. Mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CAOC expects China's 24/25 sugar production to be 11 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting range consolidation [27]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2509 contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. ICE cotton 07 contract closed at 68.53 cents/lb, up 0.25%. Domestic cotton spot basis was stable, while the cotton yarn market had weak trading [29][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a lack of upward drivers [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2505 contract closed at 3,073 yuan/500 kg, down 1.88%. Egg 2509 contract closed at 3,791 yuan/500 kg, down 0.47% [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing range adjustment [34]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. Sichuan spot price was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The procurement progress of second - fattening in April was more than half, and the high - price chasing sentiment cooled down. The short - term support level of LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting focusing on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [38]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. PK505 contract closed at 7,776 yuan/ton, down 2.29%. Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating to focus on oil mill purchases [42].

Group 1 - As of April 30, 2025, corn futures closed at 2377 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 1.76% with a trading volume increase of 112,988 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - For the week ending April 24, 2024, U.S. corn export net sales were 1.014 million tons, down from 1.153 million tons the previous week, while corn shipments were 1.598 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons [2] - On April 30, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a corn warehouse receipt of 168,663 contracts, an increase of 35,188 contracts from the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - Market sentiment for corn prices is strong, with expectations of high volatility; however, caution is advised due to potential pressure from upcoming wheat harvests [4] - Supply dynamics indicate that grain reserves in Northeast China are nearing depletion, leading to a bullish outlook among traders, while demand from livestock and feed sectors is increasing due to improved profitability [5] - The stability of wheat prices and its reduced price gap with corn may impact corn demand negatively, highlighting the need to monitor U.S.-China tariff policy changes [5]

Core Points - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on May 5, with corn down 3.14%, wheat down 2.16%, and soybeans down 1.18% [1] - Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are expected to facilitate rapid spring planting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1][2] - The USDA reported significant increases in cumulative export inspection volumes for corn (29%), soybeans (11%), and wheat (14%) compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - On May 5, the most active July corn contract closed at $4.54 per bushel, down 14.75 cents; July wheat at $5.31 per bushel, down 11.75 cents; and July soybeans at $10.46 per bushel, down 12.5 cents [1] - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that for the week ending May 1, corn export inspections totaled 63.317 million bushels, wheat 11.4 million bushels, and soybeans 11.9 million bushels [1] - IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 from 82.5 million tons to 83.8 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 2.07%, closing at 30.9673 points, indicating a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 3.14%, settling at $4.5425 per bushel, reflecting a significant drop in grain prices [1]

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

Research View - The research view on various agricultural products is mostly "sideways." Corn is in a sideways state, with long positions shifting to the July and September contracts. The spot market continues to show a strong performance driven by the futures. Northeast corn prices are rising, with a general increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and traders' enthusiasm for shipping is average. In North China, corn prices are also running strongly. Technically, the July contract has broken through the previous high [1]. - Soybean meal is also in a sideways state. CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to trade - related tensions and farmers' eagerness to plant soybeans. In the domestic market, the futures have raised the margin, and the market is mainly sideways. The spot supply of soybean meal is still tight, but it is expected to improve in May [1]. - Fats and oils are in a sideways state. BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and the weakness of competing vegetable oils. Domestically, palm oil led the decline with reduced positions, and the oils market was weakly sideways. The increase in domestic ship purchases has pressured the spot and futures prices [1]. - Eggs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, egg futures fluctuated. The spot price has been weak recently, but the May Day holiday has a certain boosting effect on terminal demand. After the plum - rain season, the egg price is likely to decline [1]. - Pigs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs fluctuated downward. Although the May Day holiday has increased the slaughtering enterprises' stocking demand, the impact on the pig price is limited. The market generally believes that the second - fattened pigs will be slaughtered more actively around May [2]. Market Information - The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and 120,000 tons of corn to Spain, all for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year [3]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement a hog production capacity regulation plan, aiming to reduce the proportion of grain in the feed consumed by the national aquaculture industry to about 60% and the proportion of soybean meal to about 10% by 2030 [3]. - As of the end of the 17th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 97,000 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 37.00%. The coastal inventory was 84,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 31.90% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][7][9][13]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of various agricultural products, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][19][21][25]. Research Team Members - The agricultural product research team members include Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, an analyst of beans at Everbright Futures; and Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures prices in Malaysia have declined for three consecutive days, influenced by Indonesia's sudden reduction of export taxes, leading to a "price war" in the palm oil market [1] Group 1 - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to competitive pricing strategies initiated by Indonesia [1] - The recent changes in export tax by Indonesia may significantly impact the pricing dynamics of palm oil in the region [1] - There is speculation on whether Malaysian palm oil prices will fall below a certain support level amidst these developments [1]

2025年04月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求仍然不乐观 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势震荡 | 9 | | 生猪：阶段性去库开启，等待节后印证 | 10 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 30 日 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,120 7,780 | -0.66% ...