Group 1 - The current spot silver price is trading below $73.47, with a recent opening at $76.23 and a current price of $73.10, reflecting a decline of 4.04% [1] - The highest price reached was $76.40, while the lowest was $72.43, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of recovery, with October home prices increasing by 1.7% year-over-year, the lowest annual growth rate in over 13 years, suggesting improved affordability [1] Group 2 - The bearish engulfing pattern observed on the daily chart for silver is a negative signal, potentially indicating a deeper correction [2] - Resistance levels for silver are identified at $76.50, followed by psychological levels at $80.00 and historical highs at $85.87 [2] - Support levels are noted at the 50-period moving average and the recent low of $70.53, with further declines focusing on the December 18 low of $64.75 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level has listed expanding domestic demand as the primary strategic task, and the national subsidy policy will continue to advance next year. The domestic financing balance has reached a new high again, market risk appetite is gradually warming up, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile repair trend on the last trading day before the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - policy**: In 2026, the national subsidy policy continues. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies and allocated the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in. The subsidy objects in 2026 include new smart products like smart glasses and smart home, and exclude home decoration and electric bicycles. New car purchase subsidies are 12% or 10% of the car price with the same upper limits as in 2025. The scope of home appliance subsidies is narrowed to 6 categories, and the subsidy ratio for first - level energy - efficiency home appliances drops from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance decreasing from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Overseas, the Fed's December meeting minutes show that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates, but officials had significant differences [1] - **Index performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined to close at 3,965.12 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%. Among industries, petroleum and petrochemical, automobile, non - ferrous metals, and machinery equipment industries led the gains, while commerce and retail, real estate, and public utilities industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.24% to 23,419.08 points [1] - **Futures market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined on the day. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH, IC, and IM increased simultaneously [1] 3.2 Strategy - The high - level has listed expanding domestic demand as the primary strategic task, and the national subsidy policy will continue to advance next year. The domestic financing balance has reached a new high again, market risk appetite is gradually warming up, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile repair trend on the last trading day before the holiday [2] 3.3 Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [11][7] 3.4 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock index performance**: On 2025 - 12 - 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,965.12 points with a daily change of + 0.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,604.07 points with a + 0.49% change, the ChiNext Index at 3,242.90 points with a + 0.63% change, the CSI 300 Index at 4,651.28 points with a + 0.26% change, the SSE 50 Index at 3,036.55 points with a + 0.06% change, the CSI 500 Index at 7,458.94 points with a + 0.38% change, and the CSI 1000 Index at 7,597.30 points with a + 0.04% change [13] - Other charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the financing balance [14] 3.5 Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, the trading volume of IF is 94,429 (a change of - 1,730), and the open interest is 281,129 (a change of + 5,274) [15] - **Basis**: The basis data of different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented. For instance, the current - month contract basis of IF is - 8.57 (a change of - 8.33) [40] - **Inter - delivery spread**: The inter - delivery spread data for different contract combinations (such as next month - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of IF is - 10.00 (a change of + 5.00) [44]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Index has recently rebounded to around 25,855 points, influenced by easing US-China trade relations and ongoing tariff news, with short-term market conditions expected to be affected by these factors [9][10]. - The People's Bank of China maintained the 5-year LPR at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00%, while the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.50-3.75% [9]. - The report highlights the performance of major indices, with the Hang Seng Index up 28.9% year-to-date, and the H-share Index up 23.3% [3]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855 points, up 219 points or 0.86%, with a total market turnover of HKD 1,998 million [10]. - The H-share Index rose to 8,991 points, gaining 99 points or 1.12%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 95 points or 1.74% [10]. - The report provides a summary of the best and worst performing stocks within the Hang Seng Index, with Baidu Group (9888) leading with an increase of 8.9% and a year-to-date gain of 56.8% [3]. Company Analysis: Midea Group (0300.HK) - Midea Group reported a revenue of RMB 111.9 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.87 billion, up 8.95% year-on-year [24]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 363.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.82%, with a net profit of RMB 37.88 billion, up 19.51% [24]. - The total assets of Midea Group were RMB 593.3 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, while total liabilities decreased by 4.6% to RMB 359.2 billion [25]. New IPO Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Zhiyu (2513) in the artificial intelligence sector, with a proposed price of HKD 116.20 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 4.348 billion [30]. - Tian Shu Intelligent Chip (9903) is also set to launch with a proposed price of HKD 144.60, aiming to raise around HKD 3.677 billion [30]. - The report notes that these IPOs are expected to generate significant market interest due to their medium to large scale [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic and industry - related news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also includes information on upcoming events and market closures due to holidays. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic precious metal futures initially continued to decline, with platinum and palladium hitting the daily limit down for the second consecutive day (13% decline), but rebounded at night. COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce [5]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both declined slightly, with U.S. crude down 0.22% to $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.24% to $61.34 per barrel [6]. - London base metals all rose, with LME nickel up 6.11% to $16780.0 per ton, LME copper up 3.69% to $12673.5 per ton, etc. [6]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with liquefied gas and glass up over 2%, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell over 1% [8]. Important News Macroeconomic News - South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol will visit China from January 4 - 7, 2026 [10]. - Yemen declared a 90 - day state of emergency and a 72 - hour blockade [10]. - In 2026, policies for consumer goods replacement will be optimized, and 62.5 billion yuan of special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated [10][11]. - The 8th China Securities Association Risk Management Professional Committee emphasized risk prevention and high - quality development [13]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December but debated the risks to the U.S. economy [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases due to global oil supply surplus [15]. - Central enterprises will ensure the supply and price stability of phosphate fertilizers [15]. - India's November crude oil imports increased 11.1% year - on - year, and gasoline and diesel exports also rose [16]. Metal Futures - A Guinean company has resumed bauxite mining and export [18]. - Some lead and lithium enterprises plan to cut production due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - The RKAB nickel ore quota for 2026 will start on January 1 [21]. Black - Series Futures - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports increased by 246.21 tons [23]. - The iron ore inventory at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports decreased by 122.5 tons [25]. - The coking coal long - term contract price decreased by 3.6% in December 2025 [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - Domestic soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate, and the soybean crushing volume is expected to decline during the New Year's holiday [28]. - The 2025 national grain purchase volume reached 830 billion catties, stable for three consecutive years [29]. - China's hog price rose 0.17% in the fourth week of December 2025 [31]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares were narrowly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [34]. - Hong Kong stocks rose, and the 2025 Hong Kong IPO scale ranked first globally [34]. - The China Securities Association revised the evaluation method for brokerage investment banking business quality [35]. Industry - Four ministries issued an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automotive industry [36]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoted the innovation and development of Internet exchange centers [36]. - China's social logistics volume in the first 11 months increased 5% year - on - year [38]. Overseas - Trump threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell and has a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [43]. - India's GDP has exceeded Japan's, and it is expected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030 [45]. - The Axis International Company sued Guinea for at least $28.9 billion in compensation [45]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks slightly declined, European stocks rose, and most Asia - Pacific stocks fell [46][48]. - South Korea plans to announce a roadmap for inclusion in the MSCI developed market index [48]. Commodities - Precious metals initially declined and then rebounded, and oil prices fell slightly [49]. - Base metals rose, and Indonesia plans to cut nickel production in 2026 [50][51]. - OPEC + is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases [52]. Bonds - The domestic bond market stabilized after a decline, and Japanese benchmark bonds fell [53]. - South Korea plans to issue more government bonds in 2026 [54]. - U.S. bond yields showed mixed trends [54]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose [56]. - China's banking industry had a net foreign asset of $371.6 billion in September 2025 [56]. Upcoming Events and Market Closures - There are multiple events scheduled for December 31, 2025, including central bank operations and press conferences [58]. - Many markets will have closures or half - day trading due to the New Year's holiday [60].

Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达 首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、 智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补 贴 12%或 10%，补贴上限仍延续 2025 年标准。财政部、税务总局发布公告， 自 2026 年起，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，增值税征收率从 此前的 5%下调至 3%，满两年及以上的免征增值税。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材：驱动不强 震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号 ...

个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上 （含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 2025年12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》（2025年第17号），明确自2026年1月1日起，调整个人销售 住房的增值税政策。 新规规定： 根据公告，个人销售购买不足2年的住房，增值税征收率由原政策下的5%下调至3%，按销售额全额征收；销售购买2年以上（含2年）的住 房，则继续免征增值税。 对此，上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进分析称，此次调整最直接的影响是降低了短期持有住房的交易成本。他以一套售价100万元、持有 未满2年的住房为例：原先需缴纳增值税约5万元，新政后仅需3万元，业主税费负担直接减少2万元。 "这有助于减轻业主出售短期房产的压力，提高房源流动性。"严跃进分析称，成本的降低有望促使一部分因税费过高而犹豫的业主进入市场， 增加二手房供应。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉告诉记者，新政出台的背景是，当前新房和二手房市场开始分化，导致"卖旧买新"循环受阻。新政 将降低"卖旧买新"的循环阻力， ...

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

凤凰网财经讯 12月31日，三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.09%，深成指涨0.17%，创业板指涨0.15%。先进 封装、存储器、消费电子、光伏题材走强，稳定币、商业航天、能源金属概念股走弱。北交所新股N蘅 东光上市涨逾1000%。 | | | | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 * * ● | 咸新 | 张幅% | | 涨跌 涨跌家数 | | 用 | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3968.73 | 0.09 | 3.62 | 1047/784 | 0.03 | 350万 | 350万 62.61 7. | | 深证成指 | 13627.26 | 0.17 | 23.19 | 1542/867 | -0.01 | 808万 | 808万 119.18亿 | | 北证50 | 1449.56 | -0.07 | -1.08 | 149/87 | -0.15 | 17.5万 | 7.70 Z 17.5万 | | 创业板指 | 3247.74 | 0.15 | 4.84 | 760/445 | 0.0 ...