Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6472 after the US Supreme Court heard debates regarding Trump's tariff policies [1] - The latest ADP employment report indicated an addition of over 42,000 jobs in the US last month, surpassing the expected median of 40,000, reversing a previous decline of 32,000 jobs [1] - The ISM report showed an increase in the services PMI from 50 to 52.4, while S&P's data indicated a rise from 54.2 to 54.8 [1] Group 2 - Australia's trade surplus for September expanded to AUD 3.938 billion, exceeding the expected AUD 3.850 billion and the previous value of AUD 1.111 billion [2] - Exports turned positive with a growth of 7.9%, while imports increased by 1.1%, lower than the previous growth of 3.3% [2] Group 3 - The AUD/USD pair stabilized after hitting a low of 0.6463, coinciding with a key support level that aligns with an ascending trend line since May 12 [3] - A head and shoulders pattern has formed, indicating a bearish reversal, with the neckline being the aforementioned ascending trend line [3] - The most likely forecast for AUD/USD is bearish, with an initial target at the psychological level of 0.6400; a break above the 100-day moving average at 0.6541 would invalidate the bearish outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - No core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.084, UK 4.433, France 3.444, Germany 2.649, Italy 3.411, Spain 3.166, Switzerland 0.094, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.680, Brazil 6.167, China 1.802, South Korea 3.198, Australia 4.366, New Zealand 4.132 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 2 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are: US 3.556, UK 3.781, Germany 1.985, Japan 0.934, Italy 2.174, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.763, Australia 3.599 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Emerging - Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: Exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - economy currencies include: Brazil 5.352, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 17.377, Korean won 1449.800, Thai baht 32.365, Malaysian ringgit 4.183 [3]. - **Renminbi Data**: In - shore RMB 7.119, off - shore RMB 7.121, RMB central parity rate 7.087, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.972 [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6720.320, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46912.300, NASDAQ 23053.990, Mexican index 63093.120, UK index 9735.780, French CAC 7964.770, German DAX 23734.020, Spanish index 16118.000, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 50883.680, Hang Seng Index 26485.900, Shanghai Composite Index 4007.760, Taiwan index 27899.450, South Korean index 4026.450, Indian index 8337.058, Thai index 1313.310, Malaysian index 1618.940, Australian index 9098.572, emerging - economy index 1393.770 [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data for credit bond indices are not provided [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes for A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are: A - shares closing price 4007.76, up 0.97%; CSI 300 closing price 4693.40, up 1.43%; SSE 50 closing price 3044.74, up 1.22%; ChiNext closing price 3224.62, up 1.84%; CSI 500 closing price 7345.72, up 1.61% [4]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and环比变化 for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 are: CSI 300 PE (TTM) 14.33,环比变化 0.15; SSE 50 PE (TTM) 11.98,环比变化 0.10; CSI 500 PE (TTM) 33.46,环比变化 0.51 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: No data provided [4]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are: A - shares latest value 51.44, 5 - day average - 338.66; main board latest value - 36.32, 5 - day average - 267.02; SME board (not provided); ChiNext latest value 4.39, 5 - day average - 42.24; CSI 300 latest value 271.42, 5 - day average - 50.36 [4]. - **Transaction Amount and Changes**: Latest values and环比 changes of transaction amounts for Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 20552.48,环比 change 1829.07; CSI 300 latest value 5536.42,环比 change 852.81; SSE 50 latest value 1439.34,环比 change 264.86; SME board latest value 4036.04,环比 change 300.22; ChiNext latest value 5011.71,环比 change 275.40 [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage changes for IF, IH, and IC are: IF basis - 22.60, - 0.48%; IH basis - 3.34, - 0.11%; IC basis - 99.32, - 1.35% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices and percentage changes for T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: T2303 closing price 108.54, down 0.08%; TF2303 closing price 105.97, down 0.04%; T2306 closing price 108.27, down 0.10%; TF2306 closing price 105.94, down 0.05% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates and daily changes for R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are: R001 1.3621%, daily change - 10.00 BP; R007 1.4635%, daily change 0.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5875%, daily change 0.00 BP [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is masking structural weaknesses in the labor market, which could lead to a decline in the dollar once economic data resumes publication [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The absence of U.S. labor market data allows investors to overlook the potential trend of a structural slowdown in hiring [1] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in October was the highest for that month in over 20 years [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the second consecutive day, marking its largest decline since mid-October, as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar has declined by 6.8% year-to-date, with the first half of the year showing the worst performance in decades [5] - Analysts predict that the dollar may face significant selling pressure, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing government shutdown raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to receive sufficient data to support another rate cut in December [5] - Morgan Stanley shifted its outlook on the dollar from bearish to neutral, indicating that a significant change in U.S. interest rate prospects is needed for the dollar to sustain its strength [6] - The narrative surrounding the labor market is becoming increasingly soft, which could shift the support from yield-driven factors to potential risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, with a significant probability of rate cuts in the near future, reflecting a high level of speculation and volatility in the financial markets [1][3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - There is a 55.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by January, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 21.8% [1]. - Federal Reserve official Daly has expressed an open stance regarding the December rate decision, indicating that previous rate cuts were logically appropriate [1][3]. - The market is reacting to these expectations, with traders closely monitoring any statements or data that could influence interest rate predictions [5][11]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of foreign exchange supply and demand, global demand for the dollar, and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [5][9]. - The adjustment of the Chinese yuan's midpoint rate by 18 points reflects a response to the prevailing market forces, indicating a weaker reference price [3][5]. - Market volatility has increased, with traders reacting to every piece of information, leading to wider spreads and faster transaction rhythms [7][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The market's response to interest rate speculation has led to adjustments in capital allocation, foreign exchange reserves, cross-border capital flows, and hedging demands [9][10]. - The discussions around interest rate cuts have created a divide among traders, with some interpreting probabilities as certainties, leading to increased volatility in short-term trading [11]. - The heightened trading activity has also influenced other markets, such as equities, bonds, and commodities, as investors seek hedging or arbitrage opportunities [13].

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector employment growth in October exceeded expectations, adding 42,000 jobs compared to the Dow Jones forecast of 22,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market is not at risk of recession [3][4] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 1.9 basis points to 4.11% [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, surpassing the longest shutdown during Trump's first term, with an estimated economic loss of $11 billion if it continues for another week [3][4] Group 2 - European stock markets opened lower, reflecting a global decline, with concerns over overvaluation in tech stocks [4] - In the bond market, there was a mixed performance in European debt yields, with German yields mostly declining while Italian yields rose [4] - The Nikkei index in the Asia-Pacific region hit a new low since October 24, with significant declines in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, leading to profit-taking [4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a nearly 5% drop against the U.S. dollar over the past month, as market participants test the Japanese government's tolerance for yen depreciation [5] - Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield falling by 2.5 basis points to 1.668% [5] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $2.05 billion in bonds, including a $690 million short-term bond [5] Group 4 - As of November 3, the total U.S. federal debt decreased by $36 billion from the previous month, totaling approximately $38 trillion [6]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 4.086, UK 4.424, France 3.437, Germany 2.653, Italy 3.399, Spain 3.158, Switzerland 0.087, Greece 3.275, Japan 1.664, Brazil 6.102, China 1.793, South Korea 3.086, Australia 4.350, New Zealand 4.101 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 3.577, UK 3.778, Germany 1.994, Japan 0.936, Italy 2.170, South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.616 [2] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.401, South Africa zar 17.512, South Korean won 1440.400, Thai baht 32.550, Malaysian ringgit 4.197 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore RMB 7.130, off - shore RMB 7.135, RMB central parity rate 7.089, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.983 [2] - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6771.550, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47085.240, Nasdaq 23348.640, Mexican stock index 62390.730, UK stock index 9714.960, France CAC 8067.530, Germany DAX 23949.110, Spanish stock index 16036.400, Japanese Nikkei 51497.200, Hang Seng Index 25952.400, Shanghai Composite Index 3960.186, Taiwan stock index 28116.560, South Korean stock index 4121.740, Indian stock index 8241.911, Thai stock index 1298.600, Malaysian stock index 1623.500, Australian stock index 9098.190, emerging - economy stock index 1393.380 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3960.19, CSI 300 4618.70, SSE 50 3012.97, ChiNext 3134.09, CSI 500 7210.83 [3] - Percentage changes: A - shares - 0.41%, CSI 300 - 0.75%, SSE 50 - 0.11%, ChiNext - 1.96%, CSI 500 - 1.67% [3] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.17, SSE 50 11.90, CSI 500 32.85, S&P 500 28.15, Germany DAX 19.81 [3] - Month - on - month changes: CSI 300 - 0.03, SSE 50 0.06, CSI 500 - 0.54, S&P 500 - 0.34, Germany DAX - 0.15 [3] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.53, Germany DAX 2.39 [3] - Month - on - month changes: S&P 500 0.07, Germany DAX 0.05 [3] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 1494.83, Main board - 996.44, ChiNext - 379.93, CSI 300 - 239.09 [3] - 5 - day averages: A - shares - 667.86, Main board - 481.75, ChiNext - 120.57, CSI 300 - 107.90 [3] Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19157.58, CSI 300 5051.78, SSE 50 1310.58, Small and medium - sized board 3848.70, ChiNext 4768.17 [4] - Month - on - month changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 1913.73, CSI 300 - 524.25, SSE 50 - 35.79, Small and medium - sized board - 310.45, ChiNext - 589.85 [4] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 29.70, IH - 4.77, IC - 116.23 [4] - Basis spreads: IF - 0.64%, IH - 0.16%, IC - 1.61% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 108.66, TF2303 106.03, T2306 108.40, TF2306 105.99 [4] - Percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.02%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.01% [4] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3621%, R007 1.4584%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5940% [4] - Daily changes: R001 - 10.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M - 1.00 BP [4]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6534, showing a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The AUD/USD has experienced a downward trend for four consecutive days, with a total decline of about 0.08% [1] - A bearish candlestick pattern indicates that the downward momentum for the AUD is weakening, with initial support observed above the September low of 0.6483 [1] Group 2 - The correlation between Australian government bond yields and options market positions suggests that the potential for AUD retracement may be limited [2] - The 2-year Australian government bond yield has been rising, and the AUD/USD 2-year interest rate differential has widened significantly [2] - Despite a temporary increase in implied volatility for 1-day AUD/USD options, the 1-week and 1-month implied volatilities remain at moderate levels [2]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported that the total turnover in the foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency pairs) reached 26.87 trillion RMB (approximately 3.78 trillion USD) in September 2025 [1] Market Performance - The customer market turnover was 4.43 trillion RMB (approximately 0.62 trillion USD) [1] - The interbank market turnover was 22.44 trillion RMB (approximately 3.16 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market cumulative turnover was 9.87 trillion RMB (approximately 1.39 trillion USD) [1] - The derivatives market cumulative turnover was 17.00 trillion RMB (approximately 2.39 trillion USD) [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to September 2025, the cumulative turnover in the foreign exchange market was 230.10 trillion RMB (approximately 32.11 trillion USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading around 153.8000, with a slight decline of 0.19% as the market digests previous gains and awaits further signals regarding interest rate changes in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY opened at 154.1100 and closed the previous trading day at 154.1200, indicating a slight downward movement after reaching an eight-month high due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current policy has created uncertainty regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, which may limit the appreciation of the yen [1]. - The market is currently cautious, preferring to wait for more information about potential interest rate hikes in December or early next year, especially in light of the new Prime Minister's expected aggressive fiscal spending plans [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains below the monthly high resistance zone of 153.25-153.30, with a potential for bearish trading if it breaks below the 152.00 level [2]. - A significant drop below 152.00 could lead to further declines towards the key support levels of 151.10-151.00, confirming a bearish trend [2]. - Conversely, if the USD/JPY can break through the 153.25-153.30 resistance zone, it may attempt to reclaim the 154.00 level, with potential extensions towards 154.50 and 154.75-154.80 [2].

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3994.15, 48.18, 1604.00, 1421.00, 60.57, and 11042.00 respectively, with changes of -12.55, 0.00, 13.00, 28.00, 0.09, and -73.00 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.15, 1.16, 1.32, 152.74, and 1.78 respectively, with no changes [1] Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15027.13, with a change of -76.32; the latest SHFE silver inventory is 662.84, with a change of 9.01; the latest gold ETF持仓 is 1040.35, with a change of 4.30; the latest silver ETF持仓 is 15189.82, with a change of -19.75; the latest SGE silver inventory is 1108.07, with no change; the latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1, with a change of -1.00; the latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 2, with no change [1] Other Information - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [8]