Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of macro policy adjustments to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market amidst external shocks, while also promoting reforms and modernization in foreign exchange management to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to create a more convenient foreign exchange policy system that enhances services for the real economy, focusing on improving cross-border trade and investment facilitation [1]. - There is a commitment to high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and high-quality capital account openness [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to strengthen macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and national economic security [2]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The PBOC intends to leverage artificial intelligence and big data to enhance the digital and intelligent level of foreign exchange management, providing smarter and more efficient services [2]. Group 3: Supportive Measures for Trade and Investment - Multiple supportive policies will be introduced to aid foreign trade enterprises, including reforms in trade foreign exchange management and facilitating new trade business models [3]. - The PBOC will promote cross-border investment and financing facilitation, including policies to attract foreign investment and support international economic cooperation [3]. - A package of innovative foreign exchange policies will be implemented in free trade pilot zones to enhance international trade settlement and expand pilot programs for qualified foreign limited partners [3][4]. Group 4: Enhancing Shanghai's Financial Competitiveness - Recent approvals for upgrading the functions of free trade accounts in Shanghai and comprehensive reform pilot programs for offshore trade finance services indicate a focus on enhancing the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The production industry should focus on policies promoting the transformation of traditional manufacturing. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the National Development and Reform Commission has raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The foreign exchange market in May 2025 was stable, with a net inflow of cross - border funds of 33 billion US dollars in the non - bank sector, including high - level net inflows from goods trade and increased foreign investment in domestic stocks [2]. - In the industry overview, international oil prices have rebounded significantly, PTA prices have continued to rise, and egg prices have continued to decline. The urea operating rate is at a high level. The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased. The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promotes the high - end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, and encourages the use of digital technologies and relevant policies [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline prices by 260 yuan/ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan/ton on June 17 [1]. Service Industry - In May 2025, the non - bank sector had a net cross - border capital inflow of 33 billion US dollars, with stable net outflows in service trade, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded significantly [3]. - Chemical: PTA prices have continued to rise [3]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have continued to decline [3]. Mid - stream - Chemical: The urea operating rate is at a high level [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [5]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased [5]. 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will implement a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in the free trade pilot zones to support their strategic enhancement [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The foreign exchange bureau will introduce ten facilitation policies, including optimizing new types of international trade settlement [1] - The plan includes expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot program [1]

在周二（6月17日）欧洲早盘的外汇市场舞台上，美元/加元（USD/CAD）于1.3575附近徘徊，未脱离周一震荡区间。市场对美联储周三政策会议形成 一致预期，认为利率将维持在4.25%-4.50%区间。美联储官员多次强调，在通胀走势与新一轮经济政策效果未明时，货币政策不宜变动。当前，美元 指数（DXY）在98.15水平附近波动，投资者在政策公布前保持谨慎态度。 加拿大经济本迎来利好消息，市场调查显示加拿大总理马克·卡尼与美国总统特朗普达成30天内签订新贸易协议的共识，这对依赖出口的加拿大经济 理论上是重大提振。然而，加元在主要货币中的表现却不尽人意，依旧处于弱势地位。货币强弱对比中，加元兑澳元下跌0.24%，在与多数主要货币 的较量中都处于下风，这反映出市场对加元中短期前景存在疑虑，全球贸易的不确定性始终影响着投资者的信心。市场分析师指出，贸易谈判实质 性进展能为加元带来更多支撑，但短期内仍需技术面信号确认。 从美元兑加元（USD/CAD）日线图观察，该货币对下行趋势明显，价格位于各主要均线下方，空头力量占据优势。近期汇价在1.3575附近震荡，接 近八个月低点1.3540。一旦该支撑位被有效跌破，汇价可能继 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]

2025年6月16日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1789，上调（人民币贬值）17点； 欧元/人民币报8.2870，下调213点； 港元/人民币报0.91457，上调1.3点； 英镑/人民币报9.7364，下调255点； 澳元/人民币报4.6629，下调151点； 加元/人民币报5.2885，上调170点； 100日元/人民币报4.9732，下调296点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1341，下调99点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3243，下调198点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59122，上调25.2点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8502，下调58点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6008，下调82点。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds increased by 3 basis points to 6.37% [1] - The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar [1] - The rise in oil prices is cited as a contributing factor to these financial movements [1]

2025年6月13日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1772，下调（人民币升值）31点； 欧元/人民币报8.3083，上调505点； 港元/人民币报0.91444，下调3.7点； 英镑/人民币报9.7619，上调283点； 澳元/人民币报4.6780，上调105点； 加元/人民币报5.2715，上调218点； 100日元/人民币报5.0028，上调265点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1440，上调823点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3441，上调165点； 人民币/林吉特报0.5887，下调6.5点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8560，上调920点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6090，上调195点。 ...