晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 11 月 30 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，11 月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.2%、49.5%和 49.7%。 2、点评： （1）制造业景气水平有所回升，产需两端纷纷改善。具体而言，11 月生产节奏有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement with synchronized recovery in production and demand and accelerated destocking, but the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may still restrict corporate profit repair, and the sustainability of external demand contribution remains to be verified. The decline in service - sector sentiment indicates that the resilience of domestic demand also needs to be observed. The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month, still seasonally weak but with marginal improvement. Production, procurement, and import indices on the supply - side increased, and new order and backlog order indices on the demand - side rose. Inventory destocking accelerated, and some predictive indicators showed improved supply - demand relationships [5][9]. - **External demand contribution**: The new export order index rose 1.7 pct to 47.6%, and the new export order indices of four major manufacturing industries and large, medium, and small enterprises all increased. However, the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may pressure corporate profit repair [9]. - **Enterprise size and industry differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprises' sentiment improved, especially small enterprises which rose 2 pct to a nearly 6 - month high of 49.1%, while large enterprises' sentiment declined 0.6 pct to 49.3%. High - tech manufacturing with a high proportion of small and medium - sized enterprises remained in expansion, while the sentiment of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing declined, and their production sides may be stronger than the demand sides [9]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November 2025, down 0.6 pct from the previous month, the first time below the boom - bust line since 2023. The service - sector sentiment was dragged down by factors such as the fading holiday effect, while the construction industry's sentiment improved [5][9]. - **Sub - item structure**: The inventory and new order indices of non - manufacturing declined, while the new export order index rose. The sales price and input price indices increased for two consecutive months. In the service sector, the financial industry and some new - energy industries showed good performance. The construction industry's business activity index increased, possibly boosted by financial activities and policy support [9]. Investment Suggestion The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2][9].

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while small and medium-sized enterprises had PMIs of 48.9% and 49.1%, increasing by 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points respectively, all below the critical point [4] - The production index was at 50.0%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production overall [4] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in market demand [4] - The raw materials inventory index remained at 47.3%, indicating a continued decrease in the inventory of major raw materials [5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In November, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [9] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while the service industry index was 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points [12] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points, indicating a drop in market demand [14] - The input price index rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point, indicating a rise in the overall price level of inputs used in business activities [14] - The business activity expectation index was 56.2%, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook among non-manufacturing enterprises [15] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.7% in November, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [21]

中国国家市场监管总局1日公布，今年10月中国企业信用指数为161.56，企业信用水平基本平稳。其 中，房地产业信用指数连续3个月呈环比上升态势，行业信用水平实现平稳回升。 行业企业信用水平稳中有进。10月，信用指数排名前五的行业分别为金融业、电力热力燃气及水生产和 供应业、水利环境和公共设施管理业、科学研究和技术服务业、建筑业。10月，半数行业信用指数较上 月实现环比增长。文化、体育和娱乐业信用指数增幅居各行业首位。房地产业信用指数连续3个月呈环 比上升态势，行业信用水平实现平稳回升，发展韧性持续显现。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 数据显示，10月，中国企业信用指数较9月下降0.73点，可靠性分指标、经营性分指标、合规性分指 标、关联性分指标总体稳定，财务性分指标、监管性分指标略有下降，但信用风险低企业占比提升，消 费者投诉举报量降低，企业信用水平基础依然稳固，在短期波动中保持总体平稳。 10月，信用指数排名前五的省份分别为北京、安徽、天津、重庆、陕西，其中，北京信用指数呈现良好 增长趋势，位居全国第一。全国大部分区域信用指数呈现高位回调趋势。天津、上海、西藏等地指数排 名显著提升，企业合规经营水平和主体稳定性 ...

Economic Indicators - The November manufacturing PMI is at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, but still below the expansion threshold[9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[21] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a recovery driven by policy support[22] Price Dynamics - The PMI input price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, indicating strong price pressures, while the output price index is at 48.2%, below the expansion threshold, highlighting a disconnect in price transmission[14] - The PPI year-on-year growth is estimated to be around -2.5%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a divergence from the output price index[19] Profitability and Market Outlook - Industrial profits turned negative at -5.5% in October, primarily due to rising production costs and insufficient demand, which limits the ability to pass on costs to consumers[14] - The short-term economic outlook favors the bond market, with expectations of a moderate decline in interest rates due to the central bank's resumption of bond purchases[28] - Without new policy measures such as rate cuts, the equity market's recovery in industrial profits is expected to remain under pressure[28] Risks - Key risks include rising sovereign debt risks abroad, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the potential for policy effects to fall short of expectations[3]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is experiencing a temporary turbulence amidst a complex global economic environment, with the composite PMI output index dropping to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new low in nearly a year. However, this decline reflects a structural adjustment and accumulation of strength rather than a comprehensive economic downturn [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector shows resilience with a PMI of 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a glimmer of hope amidst overall economic pressure [2]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) demonstrate strong vitality, with the PMI for medium-sized enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points and small enterprises surging by 2.0 percentage points, highlighting the robust resilience of the grassroots economy [2]. - The production index has returned to the critical point of 50.0%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in manufacturing production [3]. - The new orders index has improved to 49.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a gradual recovery in market demand and an increase in enterprise orders [3]. - The employment index has slightly risen, indicating an improvement in the employment situation within manufacturing, providing a human resource guarantee for stable production [3]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, becoming a major drag on the composite index, yet it reflects significant industry differentiation rather than a complete downturn [4]. - The service sector experiences short-term volatility, with real estate and residential services remaining at low levels, while sectors like railway transportation, finance, and telecommunications maintain high prosperity levels, illustrating a mixed performance [4]. - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization and recovery, with an increase in the new orders index indicating a growing demand for construction projects [4]. - Changes in input prices and sales prices in the construction sector reflect proactive responses to cost control and price adjustments, enhancing profitability and market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite the temporary decline in the composite index, the fundamentals of China's economy remain solid, with stable manufacturing production, revitalized SMEs, and a high expectation level of 56.2% among non-manufacturing enterprises for the future [5]. - The current data drop is viewed as a short-term adjustment rather than a trend of decline, suggesting that the economy is seeking balance in a more nuanced and stable manner [5]. - The ongoing transformation and upgrading of the economy may be filled with challenges, but each step is directed towards a healthier and more sustainable direction [5].

2025年10月中国企业信用指数基本平稳 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 行业企业信用水平稳中有进。2025年10月，信用指数排名前五的行业分别为金融业、电力热力燃气及水 生产和供应业、水利环境和公共设施管理业、科学研究和技术服务业、建筑业。10月，半数行业信用指 数较上月实现环比增长。文化、体育和娱乐业信用指数增幅居各行业首位。房地产业信用指数连续3个 月呈环比上升态势，行业信用水平实现平稳回升，发展韧性持续显现。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新网12月1日电 据国家市场监督管理总局网站消息，2025年10月，中国企业信用指数为161.56，企业 信用水平基本平稳。具体来看，10月中国企业信用状况呈现以下特点： 全国企业信用水平总体稳定。2025年10月，中国企业信用指数较9月下降0.73点，可靠性分指标、经营 性分指标、合规性分指标、关联性分指标总体稳定，财务性分指标、监管性分指标略有下降，但信用 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to close at 26,033.26 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% to 5,644.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 2.24%, Tencent up 1.31%, and JD Group up 0.52%. However, Xiaomi fell by 1.76% and Meituan dropped by 2.88% [1] - The metals sector saw significant gains, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 13% [1] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks generally declined, with New Fire Technology Holdings down over 9% [1] Company News - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but its core local business operating profit turned negative, resulting in a loss of 14.1 billion yuan [2] - China Gas reported revenue of 34.481 billion HKD and a profit of 1.334 billion HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [3] - Yingtong Holdings reported a revenue of 1.028 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%, but net profit increased by 15.4% to 133 million RMB [3] - Jihai Resources reported a revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with a net profit of 88.127 million RMB, up 2.98% [3] - Yuhua Education reported annual revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 930 million RMB, up 133.2% [3] - Huitai Textile reported mid-term revenue of 2.524 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%, and a net profit of 79.322 million HKD, down 25.77% [3] - Huaxin Handbag International reported revenue of 432 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 22.55%, and a profit of 48.262 million HKD, up 78.88% [4] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the foundation for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remains intact, but the evolution may present a "volatile upward, gradually rising" characteristic rather than a rapid increase [12] - Dongwu Securities indicated that short-term risk factors in Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a catalyst is needed for confirmation of a rebound [12] - Everbright Securities suggested that compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase [12] - CICC highlighted that dividends have become a preferred choice in the current market environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September [13]

信用指数排名前五的行业分别为金融业、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业、水利环境和公共设施管理 业、科学研究和技术服务业、建筑业。半数行业信用指数较上月实现环比增长。文化、体育和娱乐业信 用指数增幅居各行业首位。房地产业信用指数连续3个月呈环比上升态势。 经济观察网据央视新闻消息，记者12月1日从市场监管总局了解到，今年10月，中国企业信用指数为 161.56，企业信用水平基本平稳。 ...