摘要 事件： 5月31日，国家统计局公布5月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49%；非制造业PMI为50.3%、前值 50.4%。 观察细分行业看，内需主导尤其国内消费支撑力大的制造业PMI表现更好，出口依赖度高或投资驱动影响大的行 业表现偏弱。 5月，装备制造、消费品等行业受内需支撑较大，两个行业PMI边际上行1.6、0.8pct至51.2%、 50.2%；食品加工、专用设备等行业也受内需影响较大，生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%。相比之下，出口依 赖度较高的纺织、化学纤维、黑色压延等行业生产及新订单指数均低于临界点；同时，高耗能行业PMI受外需及 国内投资较弱的双重拖累，较前月下行0.7pct至47%。 核心观点： 5月新出口指数偏低，但内需如消费品、装备制造行业PMI明显改善。 制造业分项中，新订单指数的表现，也指向内外需驱动力的分化在进一步拉大，其中内需订单的修复程度好于新 出口。 5月，内需订单指数再度回升至荣枯线以上（+0.3pct至50.1%）；4-5月平均看，该指数较3月回落2.2pct。相 比之下，新出口订单指数尽管边际回升2.8pct至47.5%，但4-5月平均值仍较3月下行 ...

5月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，环比上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群向《证券日报》记者表示，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。同时，生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出 现回升，表明在多项政策综合效应下，企业预期改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 企业预期有所回升 5月份PMI环比上升，显示出经济运行有所回稳。分项指数变化显示，需求整体趋稳运行，企业生产止 降回升，新动能持续向好发展，大型企业回升向好，小型企业有所改善，企业预期有所回升。 具体来看，生产指数为50.7%，环比上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快；新 订单指数为49.8%，环比上升0.6个百分点。 值得关注的是，进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，分别环比上 升2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].

摘要 事件： 5月31日，国家统计局公布5月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49%；非制造业PMI为50.3%、前值 50.4%。 核心观点： 5月新出口指数偏低，但内需如消费品、装备制造行业PMI明显改善。 5月制造业PMI整体与分项读数均有改善；相对来看，生产指数恢复程度更好，而需求指数偏低。 5月制造业PMI 有所回升，边际上行0.5pct至49.5%。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数均有回升，边际分别上行0.9、0.6pct。由于 PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看，生产指数回升至荣枯线以上 （50.7%），而新订单指数（49.8%）仍在收缩区间，反映生产明显加快，但需求仍较弱。 展望后续：目前美国关税政策的不确定性依然较大，后续需重点关注增量财政政策对内需的支撑效果。 5月29日， 美国国际贸易法庭裁决特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)加征关税的行为违法，但美国联邦巡回上诉法 院发出行政中止命令，暂时冻结国际贸易法庭的特朗普关税违法判决，当前关税在整个上诉期间继续征收。目前 外部不确定性仍较大，而金融政策已先行落地，后续应重点关注增量财政"续力"的可 ...

萨尔瓦多经济增长的主要驱动力之一，是布克尔总统政府推行的安全治理模式。这一政策显著改善了国 内治安，提升了社会运行效率和生产效能，推动社会稳定与经济发展。得益于这些政策，萨尔瓦多在建 筑、能源、农产品加工等关键领域实现了投资增长，为国际合作创造了有利环境。 国内安全状况的改善也重塑了国际社会对萨尔瓦多的认知。标普等国际信用评级机构已将萨尔瓦多主权 信用评级上调至B-，这充分体现了国际社会对萨尔瓦多经济日益增强的信心。 国际社会的认可为萨尔瓦多经济注入了强劲活力，对塑料业、纺织业、能源业、旅游业、建筑业、制药 业及农产品加工等关键领域产生了积极影响。 在此进程中，与中国的合作始终是重要支柱。萨中携手打造的标志性项目——"日落"游乐园、拉利伯塔 德新码头、新国家图书馆，以及正在推进的伊洛潘戈湖供水项目和新国家体育场前期工程，都是双方共 同推动当地旅游业与基础设施发展的生动例证，这些成果正持续转化为国民经济增长的新动能。 在纳伊布·布克尔总统的领导下，萨尔瓦多秉持发展繁荣的愿景，迎来经济增长的新时期。 在这一背景下，萨尔瓦多驻华大使馆正不懈努力，致力于巩固和拓展与中国这一世界领先经济体的双边 关系。作为一个新兴经济 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing activities returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in production activities [1] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5%, indicating stable confidence among manufacturers regarding market development [1] Group 2: High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2] - New orders indices for both high-tech and equipment manufacturing remained above 52%, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating stable growth in the service sector [3] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with a business activity expectation index of 56.5%, reflecting optimism among service providers [3] - The construction industry continued to expand, with the civil engineering business activity index at 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, indicating accelerated project construction [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The rise in manufacturing PMI in May suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are beginning to show results, although the price index remains slightly down, indicating an oversupply situation [4] - Experts emphasize the need for continued government investment in public goods to support production and employment recovery, while also advocating for measures to boost domestic demand and enhance external trade [4] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is still under observation due to external uncertainties and the fact that many sub-indices remain below 50%, indicating potential risks [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]