1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The market for caustic soda is expected to be mainly volatile. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina industry's future production reduction and new production expectations for caustic soda may offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the expectation of alumina production reduction [5]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is expected to be weak. The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the demand from the real - estate - related downstream is still weak. Exports are affected by policies such as anti - dumping duties in India and BIS certification. Although there may be supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season next year, the current high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,438 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, and the 1 - 5 month spread is weakening. The export market still has support but faces structural adjustment. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is rising, and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread is declining. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [12][15][26]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. The electricity price in Shandong Province has increased in November, providing cost support for caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in caustic soda costs [38][39][44]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - The alumina industry has a situation of declining capacity utilization, rising inventory, and shrinking profits. There is an expectation of production reduction in the future, but the new production capacity at the end of the year to early next year will drive up the rigid demand and stockpiling demand, especially the trough - filling demand before production. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion and is in the peak demand season, but the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The finished paper industry has stable production. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable production, and the printing and dyeing industry has rising production. The water treatment industry has stable production, and the ternary precursor industry has rising production [69][77][83]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [98]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.67%. In 2025, there will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production, and there will be no new capacity in 2026. The profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC production has decreased month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative PVC export was 2.9216 million tons. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports, but anti - dumping duties and BIS certification are putting pressure on exports. PVC warehouse receipts are continuously rising [103][108][114].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yinglite has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 17.10%, reflecting strong market interest and performance in the chemical industry [2]. Company Overview - Yinglite Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Shizuishan, Ningxia, and was established on November 12, 1996, with its listing date on November 20, 1996. The company specializes in various chemical products including calcium carbide, calcium nitride, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid, as well as the production and sale of electricity and heat [2]. - The main revenue composition of Yinglite includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products (2.35%), with electricity contributing 0.67% [2]. Stock Performance - As of November 7, Yinglite's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 9.11 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.591 billion CNY. The trading volume was 29.53 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.08% [1]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 125,500 CNY from main funds, with large orders accounting for 11.51% of purchases and 11.09% of sales [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported a revenue of 1.28 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -247 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.07% [2]. - Yinglite has distributed a total of 608 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, Yinglite had 22,400 shareholders, a decrease of 1.43% from the previous period, with an average of 13,507 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.45% [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to experience range - bound and weak oscillations. Supply is abundant due to the resumption of maintenance and new production capacity, while demand shows only a slight improvement in downstream开工率 with average purchasing sentiment. Exports are facing challenges such as the expected anti - dumping tax in India and weakening order volume. Inventory levels are high, and futures prices are under pressure [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable with a slight increase in the price of 50% caustic soda. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production in some plants, and demand from the alumina industry is affected by environmental control, while non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price in the next two months [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,630 yuan/ton (- 8), the East China basis is - 60 yuan/ton (- 2), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,570 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,620 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 60), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (- 48), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 4.0 dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operating rate: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+ 0.4), the PVC social inventory is 54.5 tons (- 1.0), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 80.17% (+ 3.70%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 77.23% (- 1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+ 2.19%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+ 13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,343 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 157 yuan/ton (- 40) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 845.8 yuan/ton (+ 39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 73.78 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 862.03 yuan/ton (- 117.20) [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (- 2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+ 0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+ 0.50%) [2]. - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing and printing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (- 0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance has resumed this week, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but purchasing sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are trading volume for price, and export orders are weakening. India is expected to impose anti - dumping taxes in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is high. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: There are both new maintenance enterprises and production resumptions, and the operating rate is increasing. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity launch of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina are stable, but the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in Hebei has decreased due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken, but the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has slightly decreased, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased this week [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [5]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Core Insights - The company achieved a record production of 234,000 tons of caustic soda in the first three quarters of the year, with a profit increase of 38.55 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on digitalization and intelligent management to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, moving from monthly to daily profit calculations [1][3] Production and Sales Coordination - The company developed an automatic profit calculation system to optimize product structure and sales strategies based on real-time data analysis [2] - The marketing department emphasizes efficiency and responsiveness to market fluctuations, particularly in the volatile pricing of caustic soda and liquid chlorine [2] Safety and Risk Management - The company invested 19.79 million yuan in transforming its caustic soda and hydrogen peroxide systems to achieve "zero manual" operations, enhancing safety through real-time monitoring [3][4] - A comprehensive safety information system has been established, integrating risk monitoring and management mechanisms to improve overall safety performance [3][4] Lean Management and Operational Excellence - Lean management is viewed as a cultural approach to continuous improvement and waste elimination, with a focus on optimizing processes [4] - The company has achieved significant energy savings and operational efficiency, with a reported annual reduction of 4.5 million kilowatt-hours and a total benefit of nearly 10 million yuan [4] Integration of Party Building and Production - The company has integrated fine management as a core production strategy, achieving significant operational improvements [5] - Initiatives such as the "Risk Prevention Party Member Post" have been implemented to enhance safety and risk management through active participation of party members [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 rose 2.18% to close at 2343 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in Northeast and South China increased, while some plants in Central and North China had maintenance and production cuts. The national average capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream alumina maintained a high operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing decreased slightly this week. With the signing of orders from major downstream and restocking by non-aluminum enterprises, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased this week, but the inventory pressure remained high. The strong thermal coal price drove up the cost, and due to the weak caustic soda price, the profit of chlor-alkali declined this week. Chlor-alkali enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating state in November. The restocking of downstream alumina is restricted by low profits, and some non-aluminum demands weaken seasonally, putting pressure on the caustic soda price. Affected by the market's pessimistic expectations, the current market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has a large premium over the 01 contract. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely. Technically, pay attention to the support around 2250 and the resistance around 2400 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main contract position was 134,599 lots, down 3,793 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -397 lots, up 13,942 lots; the main contract trading volume was 409,974 lots, down 41,379 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 157 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased 0.5% to 84.8%. From October 25 to 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased 0.41% to 85.86%. From October 31 to November 6, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 0.04% to 89.60%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.26% to 68.06% [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased 6.29% to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the chlor-alkali profit decreased to 464 yuan/ton [2].

注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，但趋势压力仍在 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2303 780 2438 135 2025 年 11 月 6 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，11 月 5 日山东液碱市场局部稳定，低度碱供应有所增加，涨跌均显乏力，高度碱 在订单及库存支撑下，不排除有涨价可能。 【市场状况分析】 从基本面看，烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业 未来可能减产装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而 冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同 时出口承压，导致国内供应压力进一步增大。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链负反馈，要改变 这种格 ...

专题报告 2025-11-06 烧碱：期价为何跌跌不休？ 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 行情复盘：如上期专题所述，淡季合约烧碱 2601 合约在短期出现不合理的高估后大幅回 落。去库不及预期、液氯价格反弹带动氯碱厂利润回升及仓单注册多重因素驱动烧碱期货震荡 下行。 行情展望：短期烧碱价格预计仍将呈现震荡下行趋势，但当前期货贴水较深，追空性价比 不高。趋势反转需重点关注氯碱平衡、氧化铝备碱进度及出口需求变动，短期建议观望为主。 SH2601 参考运行区间 2200-2400 元/吨。需持续跟踪：仓单注册量、氧化铝投产进度等、氯碱 平衡。 核心观点：多重因素驱动淡季合约大幅下跌，短期利空因素仍未反转 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 化工研究 | 烧碱 1、烧碱行情复盘 9 月底以来，烧碱期货价格震荡下行，跌跌不休。截至 11 月 5 日，主力合约烧碱 2601 收盘 报 2303 元/吨，较 9 月 19 日高点下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. Multiple sets of equipment in East, North, Northwest, South, and Northeast China restarted, leading to a significant increase in supply. The downstream alumina maintained a high - operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing increased slightly. However, due to the obvious increase in supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart equipment in North and Central China, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to increase. The supply of downstream alumina is loose and the low - profit situation may continue, suppressing the industry's stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream industries have rigid demand for procurement with little change. The high inventory of liquid caustic soda in factories increases the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. The continuation of high - operating, high - inventory, and weak - demand situations exerts pressure on prices. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 138,392 lots, an increase of 10,328 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 14,339 lots, an increase of 25 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 451,353 lots, an increase of 197,250 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. From October 25 - 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% week - on - week to 442,600 tons. From October 24 - 30, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 25th to 31st, PVC capacity utilization increased, downstream pipe and profile开工率 increased slightly, inventory changed little, and the high - level inventory accumulation trend slowed down. - The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits were repaired. - The high - operation state of PVC may continue during the winter, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. - With the arrival of winter, the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally, overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4638 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4638 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the trading volume was 768,285 lots, an increase of 119,079 lots; the open interest was 1,282,294 lots, an increase of 38,511 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 174,380 lots, a decrease of 18,479 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,603.08 yuan/ton, down 3.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,678.75 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 98 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions was 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,690 yuan/ton, and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 488 US dollars/ton and 518 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 179 US dollars/ton and 184 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%; the开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.45%, down 0.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, an increase of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 13.69%, down 0.88% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, among which the pipe开工率 increased by 0.8% to 42%, and the profile开工率 increased by 1.96% to 37.83%. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons month - on - month, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. - From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].