商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PVC：短期偏强，中期震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4469 | 4480 | 11 | -295 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 PVC 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场状况分析】 【现货消息】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即使存在部分装置检修和降负，其规模也有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临 高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后，而春节期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - **Supply**: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - **Market Situation**: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda this week shows a neutral trend. Maintenance has decreased, production has increased, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward next week. Demand is also neutral, with a decline in alumina start - up and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is bearish, with an increase in factory - warehouse inventory and a decrease in sample warehouse inventory in some regions. The basis is neutral, the profit is bearish, the valuation is bullish, and the macro - policy has no significant impact [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased by 0.3 tons to 840,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment will have both maintenance and restart, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3] - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3] - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of 200,000 tons or more of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.83% and a year - on - year increase of 72.72%. The inventory ratio of sample warehouse in the central and eastern regions decreased [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 85, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 88% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute price of the disk is low. The near - month contract is slightly at a premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no significant impact [3] - **Investment View**: Short - term disk has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating. There is no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures market was oscillating strongly. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. After the New Year's Day, the price of 32% caustic soda decreased to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor [6] - The total open interest increased, with an increase in positions in the far - month contracts [24] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [32] - **Upstream Production**: Start - up remains stable at a high level, and inventory is being destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Production**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [38] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: Alumina price has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42] - **Alumina**: Alumina start - up has recovered, and inventory has increased. The supply - demand balance of alumina has been repaired, port bauxite inventory has increased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [54][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered the seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline [65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: Start - up rate has rebounded [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry is "Oscillating mainly" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although PVC is at a low valuation and can have a phased rebound, the rebound space is limited due to the short - term unchangeable high - production and high - inventory structure. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. Also, the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 05 - contract futures price is 4805, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 305, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 134 [1] Spot News - After the holiday, affected by the weekend market, the trading atmosphere is dull. The market quotation remains firm, and all parties are waiting and seeing. Terminal demand has a small amount of procurement. The spot five - type ex - warehouse price of PVC in the East China region is 4480 - 4580 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price is 4500 - 4650 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - PVC has a low valuation. The market trading against involution, policy emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and large - scale stop - loss of short - positions in the near - month contracts can drive a phased rebound, but the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Even with some device maintenance and production reduction, the scale is limited. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Profit Outlook - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to profit repair. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with a range of integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, and the demand side shows weakening trends. The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The future focus is on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3]. - The PVC market was weak in the early part of the month, rebounded due to macro - sentiment, and then the macro - sentiment faded, with the overall supply - demand situation remaining weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policies [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis Strategy Analysis - **Caustic Soda**: The basis of caustic soda maintains a C - structure. The spot price first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The inventory is at a high level, and the basis is expected to continue to weaken. A reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. - **PVC**: The basis of PVC also shows a C - structure. After the price hit a new low, the supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the basis strengthened slightly. However, it is expected to weaken again in the future, and a reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price & Spread - In December, the spot price of caustic soda first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The high - level operation of production led to an oversupply situation and inventory accumulation. The demand from alumina is relatively stable, but the procurement price has been adjusted downward. Non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January [13]. 3.3 PVC Price & Spread - In December, the PVC price first fell and then rose. The high inventory led to a continuous decline in price, and the low price improved the supply - demand situation marginally. Macro - sentiment boosted the long - term demand expectation, but the overall supply - demand situation remained weak after the macro - sentiment faded [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been significantly reduced and is at a low level compared to the same period. The profit of PVC upstream raw materials is extremely compressed. The price of ethylene is expected to remain weak in January [52]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Supply - In December, new caustic soda production capacity was put into operation, and the overall supply remained at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises in January, and the supply is expected to remain high due to the good market conditions of liquid chlorine [70]. 3.6 Liquid Chlorine Price and Its Downstream Products - In December, the price of liquid chlorine increased. The downstream demand supported the price, but in January, the terminal demand of some downstream products entered the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [82]. 3.7 PVC Supply - The overall PVC output remained high in December. All new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant. There is no new domestic production capacity in 2026, and the overseas supply contraction in December 2025 provided a small support to the market sentiment [98]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The demand from alumina is expected to weaken in the long - term. The non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January, and the demand of various industries is expected to decline seasonally [110]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Import and Export - The main import sources of domestic liquid caustic soda in November were Singapore, Norway, and Germany, and the main export destinations were Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. The export orders remain normal [132]. 3.10 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PVC is weakening. The demand for pipes and profiles is affected by the sluggish real - estate market, while the film industry performs relatively well. The downstream demand is expected to decline further in January [145]. 3.11 PVC Import and Export - The BIS certification and anti - dumping duties of PVC in India have been cancelled, and the export expectation for 2026 is improving. The current PVC export maintains its resilience through price - for - volume strategy [156]. 3.12 Caustic Soda and PVC Inventory Data - The inventory of caustic soda increased in December due to factors such as production increase and weakening downstream demand. The PVC social inventory continued to increase, and the high - level futures warehouse receipts continued to suppress the PVC futures price [160].

烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for the caustic soda industry [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply of caustic soda will increase, domestic demand support will be insufficient, and export growth will decline. The overall market supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose, with limited upward driving force. The price may show a combination of shock bottom - building and periodic weak rebounds, and the price center is expected to move down slightly. However, the downward space should not be overly pessimistic. The high profit sensitivity and production flexibility of the chlor - alkali industry will support the price, and caustic soda is unlikely to run significantly below the cost line for a long time. The main operating range of the main contract price may be between 2000 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton [3][67] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Market Review - In 2025, the caustic soda market was a repeated tug - of - war between expectations and reality. The main contract price ranged from 2092 yuan/ton to 3346 yuan/ton. The market can be divided into four stages: the first stage (from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival), the market expected a tight supply of caustic soda in the first half of the year, and the spot market followed the rise, pushing up the price; the second stage (after the Spring Festival to June), the new alumina plant commissioning was delayed, the price of alumina decreased, and the cost of caustic soda decreased, leading to a sharp decline in the caustic soda price; the third stage (July to August), the "anti - involution" market and the improvement of non - aluminum demand led to a rebound in the price; the fourth stage (September to December), the non - aluminum demand was limited, the alumina supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the high - supply pressure led to a decline in the price [12][13] 3.2 Supply: Low - speed Growth of Caustic Soda Supply in 2026 - **Limited Newly Put - into - Operation Capacity in 2026**: In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry was more than 3 million tons/year, but the actual new capacity was only 1.09 million tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of about 2.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity is 4.77 million tons/year, but considering issues such as waste salt treatment and liquid chlorine digestion, the new plant commissioning uncertainty is still high, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be only around 3.3% [19][20][21] - **Low - speed Growth of Caustic Soda Production**: In 2025, the average operating load of the caustic soda industry was around 87.5%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 39.929 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In 2026, production is expected to grow with capacity, but the growth rate may be lower than the capacity growth rate. The average operating load may decline, and the annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2.2% [25][26] 3.3 Domestic Demand: Alumina Demand Peaks, Non - aluminum Support is Insufficient - **Alumina Supply Surplus May Bring Negative Feedback to Caustic Soda Price**: Alumina demand accounts for about 30% of caustic soda demand. In 2026, the domestic alumina production increase plan is 14.95 million tons/year, with an additional caustic soda demand of about 300,000 tons. However, due to the supply surplus of alumina, there is a risk of production reduction, which may reduce the caustic soda demand by about 500,000 tons. Whether alumina production is reduced or not, it will bring negative feedback to the caustic soda price [31][36][38] - **Non - aluminum Downstream Demand is Stable and Lacks Highlights**: Non - aluminum downstream demand is relatively scattered, and the demand growth is expected to be stable, lacking significant elasticity. It is difficult to be the key variable driving the caustic soda price. The core of the caustic soda demand contradiction is the continuous suppression of the caustic soda price elasticity by the alumina supply surplus. The caustic soda demand growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 1% [44][54] 3.4 Export: The Growth Rate of Caustic Soda Export is Expected to Slow Down in 2026 - In 2025, from January to November, China's caustic soda export volume was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. Indonesia became the largest export destination. In 2026, caustic soda exports are expected to continue to grow, but due to the global alumina supply surplus and the substitution trend of magnesium oxide, the export growth rate is expected to slow down, and the support for the caustic soda price will weaken [54][65] 3.5 Investment Advice - In 2026, the caustic soda market will be in a wide - range shock pattern of "supported by cost at the bottom and suppressed by supply - demand at the top". The main operating range of the main contract price may be between 2000 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton [3][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a state of weak supply - demand, with the impact of macro - sentiment weakening. The overall supply is abundant, downstream开工 is slightly decreasing, and the overall profit is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend. The supply side is at a high level of operation, and the non - aluminum demand is weakening. Attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine price, device maintenance dynamics, and the implementation of specific anti - involution rules on the macro side [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4810 yuan/ton (+33), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 270 yuan/ton (- 43) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4490 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 760 yuan/ton (+226), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 336 yuan/ton (+134), and the PVC export profit is - 16.1 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (- 2.2), the social PVC inventory is 51.4 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.7 tons (+4.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2273 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 76 yuan/ton (- 57) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 703 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1120 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1172 yuan/ton (- 20), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 564.7 yuan/ton (- 22.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 237.33 yuan/ton (- 22.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda operation rate is 86.00% (+1.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.14% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously - maintained enterprises have resumed production, with a slight increase in supply. All new PVC devices in 2025 have been put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operation rate has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading volume is light when the price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the two festivals [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period [3]. - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of the caustic soda and PVC spot prices, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price has decreased, and the production profit is in a loss state; the semi - coke price has slightly decreased, and the profit is still in a loss state [3]. - Futures: The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period, and the hedging pressure on the futures price remains, continuously suppressing the PVC futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: As the devices resume production, the operation rate has slightly increased, and the overall operation is at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is still positive and does not drag down the chlor - alkali profit. The price of liquid chlorine is difficult to fall, resulting in the high - level operation of caustic soda. The downstream of Shandong liquid chlorine will reduce the load at the end of December, and the liquid chlorine price is expected to further decline, and the cost support may strengthen [3]. - Demand: The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, and the purchase price is stable. Some alumina plants expect the purchase price of caustic soda to decrease next month. The operation rates of non - aluminum industries such as textile printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, and pulp have decreased, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Two stars, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is in a complex situation with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others have expectations of improvement in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term pressures [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Downstream polypropylene cost pressure eased slightly, but demand recovery was limited as some polypropylene plants were still shut down [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had narrow - range movements. For polyethylene, imports were increasing, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated. Port inventory was high, but supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range movement. Cost had no obvious positive impact, and there were expectations of supply - demand increase and inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX prices were driven up by strong expectations but deviated from downstream demand. PTA was mainly affected by PX, with expectations of low - load inventory reduction and margin repair [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased, and inventory increased. It was in a low - level fluctuation, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory was low, and it was in the off - season. Its price followed raw materials, and long - term supply - demand was relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was cost - driven with long - term overcapacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose sharply. Import volume was expected to decrease, and port inventory might enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spreads [6] - Urea prices were strongly volatile. Supply was tightening, but it might increase this week, and short - term prices might decline [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC had a slightly upward trend. Supply might increase, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. It was expected to move within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices were strong. Supply pressure was high, downstream demand growth was limited, and profit compression was expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were strong. Production was increasing, inventory was decreasing, but there was long - term supply - demand surplus. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash 05 [8] - Glass prices were strong. Capacity was being reduced, inventory pressure was high, and long - term capacity reduction was expected to reach a new balance [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently dominated by bearish factors. Supply is abundant while demand lacks highlights, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak and stable-to-declining oscillatory pattern next week [4]. - There is a high probability that the price of aluminum oxide will decline. The market supply is increasing with the outflow of expired warehouse receipts from Xinjiang, and the demand side has a high inventory level, reducing the need for further large - scale spot purchases [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply**: The supply pressure of the chlor - alkali industry remains. The operating rate of chlor - alkali plants is high, with the national sample enterprise operating load rate at 89.84% and a weekly output of 869,500 tons. Maintenance losses are decreasing, and there will be no large - scale maintenance except for a few enterprises in the future, indicating sufficient supply [4]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, and downstream support has weakened. The operating capacity of the core downstream aluminum oxide industry has dropped to 81.37%, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has slightly decreased. Downstream and traders are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude and making purchases based on rigid demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory performance varies. In Shandong, inventory decreased by 18.12% due to price - for - volume strategies, but in East China, the overall inventory increased by 2.83%, showing inventory accumulation pressure in some regions [4]. - **Profit**: Profits have shrunk significantly. Affected by the decline in liquid caustic soda prices, the ECU profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased significantly. In Shandong, the profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants decreased by 25.90% month - on - month, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 146.97 yuan per ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Caustic soda shows a weak trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being; Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Aluminum Oxide in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale aluminum oxide plants in Shandong is at a high level, and the price continues to decline. From November 14 to December 5, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major aluminum oxide plants in Shandong was continuously reduced [7][9]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production and Market**: The overall operation of national aluminum oxide enterprises is relatively stable. As of Friday, the national built - in capacity of aluminum oxide is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.90 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.6%. The inventory of aluminum oxide at the electrolytic aluminum enterprise end continues to rise, and the market supply is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum oxide will decline rapidly next week [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: From December 5 - 11, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The load in North China and East China increased slightly, while that in Southwest and Central China decreased [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides price trend charts of caustic soda futures, 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as charts of caustic soda variety spreads, regional spreads, and profit [22][25][28][30][32][35][38]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the warehouse inventory of national fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 457,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. The inventory performance varies by region [13]. - **Output**: Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton caustic soda plant has been put into operation, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 - ton caustic soda project has also been successfully put into operation, with a current daily output of 600 - 700 wet tons of 32% liquid caustic soda. The total additional capacity in 2025 is expected to be 2.1 million tons [52][53]. - **Plant Maintenance**: The report lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions, including the enterprise names, caustic soda capacities, and maintenance schedules [55]. - **Consumption**: The report provides charts of caustic soda demand, weekly consumption (including exports), and consumption of different types of caustic soda [57][58]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production Capacity**: There will be a large number of new aluminum oxide production capacity projects put into operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, especially in Guangxi. The new capacity will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [65][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions showed different trends, and the industry was generally stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The report provides charts of caustic soda export volume, export price, export profit, and export destinations. In 2025, there is an estimated 4.5 million tons of new overseas aluminum oxide production capacity to be put into operation, and most of the new aluminum oxide plants in Indonesia have been put into operation, with caustic soda stockpiling completed [73][74][82].