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烧碱:偏多对待,PVC:偏多对待PVC
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 14:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is weak and volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current market shows rising production and inventory, with a weak structure. However, considering the cost - side support and the expected increase in demand during the peak season, especially the planned alumina capacity expansion in Guangxi at the end of the year, the market is expected to turn bullish later. It is recommended to go long on dips, engage in positive spreads for 10 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [5] - **PVC**: The industry's fundamentals have not significantly improved during the anti - involution process. With high production and inventory, and weak demand both domestically and in exports, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to go short on rallies, avoid participating in inter - period spreads, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 contract is strengthening, and the downside space of the 10 - 1 month spread is limited. The export market still provides support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][19] 3.1.2 Supply - The domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week is 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons is 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side has changed significantly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decent profit situation [40][44][45] 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profit. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production expansion can drive a new round of demand growth. The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have stable operations, and the water treatment and ternary precursor industries also have stable operations [76][82][93] 3.1.4 Balance Sheet - Assuming a 1 - million - ton caustic soda production capacity is put into operation in 2025, under different demand scenarios (weak, neutral, and optimistic), the supply - demand gap varies with different operating rates [102] 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating and strengthening, while the 9 - 1 month spread is oscillating weakly [106] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The PVC production capacity utilization rate this week is 79.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in the northwest from August to September in 2025. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation, increasing the supply pressure [111][113][114] - **Demand**: The real estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall operating rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are weaker year - on - year. The PVC export expectation is weakening, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 being 1.9605 million tons, and the monthly export volume decreasing by 27.61% month - on - month [123][129][138]
中泰期货烧碱周报:烧碱仓单冲击期货、现货市场,烧碱现货价格大幅度下行-20250810
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 03:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the caustic soda market is in a off - season, but the market is expected to enter the consumption peak season in September and October. The previous positive factors have not disappeared, and the market can refocus on these factors. - The short - selling orders should take profits at an appropriate time, and long - buying orders should enter the market at an appropriate time. The production profit of caustic soda will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The capacity utilization rate in the Northwest increased significantly, slightly increased in North China, and decreased in Northeast China. It is estimated that next week, the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.1%, and the weekly output will be about 804,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: China's alumina production was 1851,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. The production of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 85,100 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The terminal market demand was still weak, and the orders for autumn and winter fabric samples were lower than in previous years. The industry generally expects demand to pick up gradually after mid - September [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The capacity utilization rate of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a week - on - week increase of 2.87% [5]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was - 150 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was 253 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level in the same period of history. The production profit will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali products (32% and 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine), flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, and raw materials (raw salt, coal) from 2021 - 2025 [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production, operating rate, device loss, and cumulative production of caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, the number and quantity of caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are records of the maintenance and planned maintenance of chlor - alkali devices in various regions this week and in the future [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda purchase price, and inventory of alumina in China from 2022 - 2025 [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the weekly operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2021 - 2025 [35][38]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: It shows the production of pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of paper products in upstream factories, and the cumulative production of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard from 2021 - 2025 [41]. - **Export**: The monthly and cumulative export volumes of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [44].
行业深度报告:氯碱行业盈利底部震荡,反内卷下行业盈利有望修复
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-08 08:43
行 业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源:聚源 相关研究报告 《中共中央政治局会议再度明确"反 内卷"决心,国家发改委将对内卷行 业展开摸底调查—化工行业周报》 -2025.8.3 《多国政策支持生物燃料行业发展, 行业景气度向上—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.1 《农药行业开展"正风治卷"三年行 动,看好供给优化助力盈利修复、景 气反转—行业点评报告》-2025.7.28 ——行业深度报告 氯碱盈利已触底,PVC 亏损严重,反内卷政策推动下行业盈利有望修复。2025 年 7 月 1 日,中央财经委员会第六次会议明确强调,依法依规治理企业低价无序竞 争,推动落后产能有序退出。从氯碱行业上市公司 2024 年利润情况看,在我们统计 的 14 家上市企业中,6 家企业的氯碱业务处于盈亏平衡或者亏损的状态,可能非上 市公司的情况更差。据我们测算,2025 年 7 月,片碱行业平均盈利约为 1,053 元/吨、 PVC 行业平均亏 ...
【SH周报】宏观情绪退坡近端烧碱现货崩塌-20250808
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has declined, and the spot price of near - term caustic soda has collapsed. The upside space of caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, the overall demand is weak, and both liquid and flake caustic soda have seen a week - on - week inventory build - up. The caustic soda price has been falling this week, mainly due to weakening demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product [3][6]. - For different market participants, corresponding hedging strategies are recommended. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options; traders looking to build inventory can sell put options and buy call options; terminal customers worried about price increases can buy call options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - China's caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in China has remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda is 847 yuan/ton (converted to 2646.875 yuan/dry ton), and the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has declined [11]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi are presented, with daily - updated data [37]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions are analyzed, including the differences between Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, and Jiangsu - Shandong, with daily - updated data [37]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Supply**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North, Northwest, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the estimated domestic caustic soda production is 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04% [55]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance this week, while some are still under maintenance or have planned maintenance. This week's maintenance is expected to affect a total of 27,950 tons of caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity [60]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: The operation status of flake caustic soda units of various manufacturers is reported, including normal operation, reduced operation, and maintenance [64]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The overall supply - demand imbalance in the south has not improved significantly. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23% [67]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, remaining unchanged from last week [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate in the Yangtze River Delta is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand in the printing and dyeing industry remains weak [67]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%. The inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65% [80]. 3.6 Valuation - **Cost Side**: The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen [84]. - **Profit**: This week, the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry at the spot end has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost - side price and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price [85]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method, and the comprehensive profit of the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [97].
烧碱开工环比上升,库存持续累积
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:10
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-08 烧碱开工环比上升,库存持续累积 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5046元/吨(-5);华东基差-176元/吨(-15);华南基差-126元/吨(-15)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4870元/吨(-20);华南电石法报价4920元/吨(-20)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润5.3美元/吨(-4.7)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率77.83%(+3.41%); PVC乙烯法开工率77.55%(+7.31%);PVC开工率77.75%(+4.49%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量85.4万吨(+5.8)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2413元/吨(-61);山东32%液碱基差87元/吨(-2)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价800元/吨(-20);山东50%液碱 ...
SH周报:宏观情绪退坡近端烧碱现货崩塌-20250808
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]
山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱走势趋弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:22
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-07 山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱走势趋弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5051元/吨(+9);华东基差-161元/吨(+31);华南基差-111元/吨(+21)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4890元/吨(+40);华南电石法报价4940元/吨(+30)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润10.0美元/吨(-2.7)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率74.42%(-4.79%); PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%(+3.29%);PVC开工率73.26%(-2.55%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量85.4万吨(+5.8)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2474元/吨(-32);山东32%液碱基差89元/吨(+32)。 策略 PVC 单边:观望。 跨期:V09-01跨期逢高做 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:29
Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].
国投期货化工日报-20250806
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 11:06
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]
情绪提振,PVC盘面止跌反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 06:01
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-06 情绪提振,PVC盘面止跌反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5042元/吨(+61);华东基差-192元/吨(-41);华南基差-132元/吨(-51)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4850元/吨(+20);华南电石法报价4910元/吨(+10)。 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2506元/吨(-23);山东32%液碱基差57元/吨(+23)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润12.7美元/吨(+4.8)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价820元/吨(+0);山东50%液碱报价1290元/吨(-30)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率74.42%(-4.79%); PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%(+3.29%);PVC开工率73.26%(-2.55%)。 上游生产利润:山东烧碱单品种利 ...