（央视财经《天下财经》）据国际货币基金组织测算，意大利去年GDP在全球排名第八。作为欧洲重要 经济体，意大利在冬季体育领域同样有深厚积淀。在今年（2026年）之前，已经两度举办冬奥会。而冬 奥会不只是一场体育盛会，更是一笔大生意。承办一场冬奥会需要花多少钱？钱会花到哪里？办冬奥能 为意大利创造多少经济效益？赛后会留下些什么？一起来算一算这本冬奥会的"经济账"。 根据意大利官方透露的数字，本届米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会整体支出预算约为52亿欧元（约合人民币426亿 元）。而国际评级机构标准普尔全球评级近期的测算显示，本届冬奥会支出总额可能为57亿至59亿欧 元。这些支出主要分为两大部分。其中约17亿欧元为运营费用，主要用于赛事组织、安保、物流、营销 等方面。这17亿欧元由本届冬奥组委会负责管理，其中接近60%的金额，大约10亿欧元来自国际奥委 会，这笔资金包括电视转播权收入以及国际顶级赞助商的分成。其余部分来自本土赞助、门票销售、特 许经营商品授权等。如果收入低于预期，不足以覆盖运营支出，几个主办地区政府都留出了一定预算， 用于兜底。例如米兰市与伦巴第大区各自预留了1.13亿欧元；另外据当地媒体报道，威尼托大区也留出 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到3.8星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中小盘股上涨更多一些。 今天上涨后，500低波动重新达到高估。 红利等价值风格微涨。 美股纳斯达克100下跌4%；黄金白银等商品价格也出现较大波动。 市场担心美联储降息的不确定性。 不过到了周五，美联储发表讲话，认为预计今年晚些时候，通货膨胀率会继续降低。 美元通货膨胀率降低，有利于美联储降息。 这减缓了市场对短期流动性的担心。 北京时间，上周五晚上全球股票市场、商品市场又出现大幅反弹。 创业板等成长风格上涨较多。 港股今天也整体上涨。 涨幅跟A股差不多。 1. 上周一到上周四，全球股票、商品市场出现较大波动。 周一A股港股开盘之后也出现了补涨。 2. 从2024年9月以来，美联储进入降息周期。 利率之于资产，就好比地心引力之于物体。 美元利率、汇率下降，全球流动性充裕，带动全球资产估值提升。 全球股票市场上涨30%上下，商品等市场也出现大幅上涨。 A股港股上涨更多，整体上涨50-60%。 并且流动性充裕，更容易看到小资产（小盘股、小国家股票市场、小体量的有色金属）出现大幅上涨。 3. 不过中间也会阶段性的 ...

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with several investment banks predicting a rebound in core inflation due to the "January effect" and tariff cost transmission [1][3] - The consensus forecast for January's core CPI month-over-month growth is around 0.3%, with Bank of America and Citigroup both predicting a 0.3% increase, while UBS has a more aggressive forecast of 0.38% [1][3][5] - The divergence between goods prices and service sector inflation is a focal point, with rising goods prices driven by tariff cost pass-through, while service prices may show seasonal weakness, potentially signaling easing inflationary pressures [1][3][8] Goods Price Trends - The "January effect" and tariff cost pass-through are expected to drive strong performance in goods prices, with Bank of America forecasting a 0.40% month-over-month increase in core goods prices, while Citigroup anticipates a 0.31% rise [3][5] - Specific categories such as furniture (+0.35%), auto parts (+0.75%), and medical goods (+0.8%) are expected to reflect sellers' actions to pass on tariff costs [3][5] - UBS warns of measurement disruptions due to delayed data collection from November, which may impact January's core goods prices and airline ticket prices by approximately 5 basis points [5] Service Sector Inflation - There is significant divergence in expectations for service sector inflation, which will influence the overall CPI data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [8][10] - Citigroup predicts a 0.39% month-over-month increase in core services prices (excluding housing), which is lower than the typical 0.7% seen in January over the past two years [8] - Bank of America expects a slight cooling in service sector inflation compared to December, primarily due to anticipated declines in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Housing Inflation - Consensus among institutions suggests a moderate increase in housing prices, with Citigroup forecasting a 0.23% rise and UBS predicting a 0.26% increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) [10] - Bank of America notes that service sector inflation may cool slightly compared to December, influenced by the previous month's strong increases in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Policy Implications - Different interpretations exist regarding how the upcoming data will affect Federal Reserve policy, with Bank of America suggesting the current inflation environment is "neither too hot nor too cold" [11] - Citigroup maintains that if inflation data remains below expectations during the typically strong seasonal period at the beginning of the year, it could convince hawkish officials that persistent inflation is no longer a primary concern [11]

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）2月9日，人民银行官网公告称，根据《中国人民银行与英格兰银行合作备 忘录》，中国人民银行决定授权中国银行股份有限公司伦敦分行担任英国人民币清算行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political uncertainty in the UK is expected to put pressure on the British pound and UK government bonds [1] Group 1 - The resignation of Morgan McEwen, a close ally and chief of staff to Prime Minister Starmer, due to the involvement of former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, in the Epstein case has raised concerns about potential leadership changes in the UK [1] - Market fears regarding possible changes in UK leadership could lead to looser fiscal policies and increased public borrowing, prompting investors to demand a risk premium on UK assets [1]

近期，数字人民币又有新动作。 春节将至，农民工工资支付再度成为焦点。近期，数字人民币运营管理中心表示，其在成都落地全国首单数字人 民币智能合约农民工工资发放业务。 据介绍，该业务依托数字人民币运营管理中心提供的数字人民币智能合约生态服务平台，实现工资发放自动执 行，为服务保障农民工工资支付这项民生工程探索出了数字金融和普惠金融新模式。 在为农民工支付工资的背后，数字人民币正在用智能合约走出另一条通路：数字人民币正在逐渐发挥着现代化数 字货币支付优势，通过可搭载智能合约的特点，让资金去向更加明晰，防止中间环节出现资金挪用等问题。这种 具有独到的精准性和可达性的优势，未来在服务金融"五篇大文章"等重点领域和场景上或将发挥巨大作用。 图/ic 聚焦农民工工资支付数字人民币能做什么？ 近年来，为了保障农民工工资正常派发、解决拖欠农民工工资问题，相关监管部门下发多个文件，保障农民工的 合法权益。 数字人民币能做什么？从数字人民币运营管理中心的表述来看，智能合约是重点。本次农民工工资发放场景依托 于智能合约生态服务平台，数字人民币业务运营机构交通银行为总包企业开立单位钱包，并加载智能代发合约， 控制资金不被挪用，并按照工 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 380 billion yuan after 750 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) slightly decreased by 0.70 basis points to 1.2700%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rates increased by over 7 basis points, reaching 1.5050% and 1.5840% respectively [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates increased, with DR014 rising nearly 10 basis points and R014 surpassing 1.61%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.1 basis points and increased by 1.0 basis points, respectively [4] Group 2 - The money market rates on February 9 showed a balanced funding environment in the morning, but tightened in the afternoon, with overnight pledged rates trading around 1.50% and rising to 1.60% by the end of the day [8] - The secondary market for negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) remained relatively quiet, with long-end yields continuing a slight downward trend and short-end yields increasing slightly after midday [9] - The Ministry of Finance announced tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods, exempting import duties and VAT for goods returned within six months due to unsold or returned reasons [11]

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 临近春节假期，各大银行消费贷政策密集落地，不少银行在贷款优惠券的加持下，信用贷产品年化利率 降至3%，甚至白名单客户利率已低于3%。 对于本轮消费贷利率普遍下调的原因，苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言表示，主要是政策激励、市场竞争与 银行自身战略调整共同作用的结果。 "个人消费贷款财政贴息政策的延长为业务提供了明确指引，而房贷增长放缓促使银行将消费贷作为信 贷投放的重要方向。同时，存款到期再定价带来的利率下行也为银行降低贷款利率提供了空间。"薛洪 言强调。 为精准落实"促消费"政策，薛洪言表示，银行普遍采取与消费场景深度绑定的策略，推出针对汽车、家 装等领域的专项产品，并通过与电商、商户合作将信贷服务嵌入实际消费流程。 在客群策略上，薛洪言指出，当前各类银行策略各有侧重：国有大行凭借资金成本优势，主要面向职业 稳定的优质客群提供高额度产品；股份制银行注重线上体验与灵活营销；城商行则更聚焦本地市场与特 定单位客群。 苏商银行研究院高级研究员杜娟则认为，推出低利率活动，既有顺应政策、促进春节期间消费市场的驱 动，亦是结合银行开门红期间的资产投放计划。"优惠定价叠加财政贴息等，使消费贷成本下降， ...

Core Insights - The trend of sustainable issues returning to financial relevance is a key focus for 2026, as highlighted by MSCI's head of Sustainable and Climate Research for Greater China, Guo Sipin [1] - Despite global policy fluctuations, the scale of sustainable investment assets continues to rise, with MSCI's sustainable and climate index surpassing $1 trillion by 2025 [1] - Investors' growing recognition of the financial importance of sustainability and climate issues is influencing corporate ESG disclosure practices [1][2] Group 1: ESG Investment and Financial Relevance - ESG investment value is increasingly rooted in solid corporate fundamentals, moving away from mere conceptual speculation [2] - Events such as environmental damage, safety incidents, and antitrust investigations can lead to stock price declines and reputational damage, representing real financial risks [2] - MSCI's data since 2013 shows that companies with higher ESG ratings consistently outperform their lower-rated peers, with excess returns driven by profit growth rather than valuation expansion [2] Group 2: Corporate Disclosure and Market Trends - The percentage of MSCI ACWI constituents setting climate goals has increased from less than 10% a decade ago to nearly 60% by the end of 2025, driven by investor pressure [2] - In Europe, the introduction of comprehensive EU legislation has led to growth in disclosure rates, while in the Americas, despite a slowdown due to policy environments, disclosure continues to expand [3] - The market's assessment framework is evolving, with increasing demands for information quality and a shift from simple "green" labels to a focus on specific performance metrics [3] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Green Technology - High-growth sectors like data centers are now subject to strict ESG evaluation frameworks, with carbon emissions and energy consumption becoming key investor concerns [4] - The global carbon emissions from data centers account for approximately 2%-5%, with high growth rate predictions prompting investor scrutiny [4] - In green technology investments, companies that generate revenue from scalable, verified technologies significantly outperform those relying on early-stage technologies [4] Group 4: Climate Risk Management in Financial Institutions - Climate issues have transitioned from strategic declarations to urgent risk management challenges for financial institutions, with global regulators incorporating climate factors into supervisory frameworks [6] - Chinese banks face the highest median transition risk among 27 jurisdictions, indicating a need for improved climate risk management preparedness [6] - The proportion of Chinese banks disclosing climate risk management efforts is expected to rise from 20% in 2023 to nearly 40% by 2025 [6] Group 5: Integration of Climate Data in Banking - Climate data is becoming an essential tool for banks, particularly in risk management and client services, influencing the issuance of green bonds and financial solutions [7] - Banks are integrating climate risks into traditional risk management frameworks, assessing potential credit losses from high-carbon assets and extreme weather impacts [7] - The Asia-Pacific region, while facing high physical risk exposure, is also a center for green technology innovation and investment opportunities [7][8] Group 6: Challenges in Data Availability - The analysis of climate risks at the asset level faces challenges related to data availability, particularly for supply chain and overseas assets [8] - Future sustainable and climate analysis is expected to shift from disclosure tools to core decision-making instruments within financial institutions [8]

[Table_Title] 四季度主动权益基金主动加仓前四大行业： 金属、化学品、保险和机械设备 金融工程丨深度报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 与 2025 年三季报相比，2025 年四季度主动权益基金增持最多的四个行业为电信业务（1.90 pct）、金属材料及矿业（1.90pct）、化学品（1.10 pct）和保险（0.94 pct）。从主动调仓角度来 看，主动加仓最多的四个行业分别是金属材料及矿业（0.99 pct）、化学品（0.86 pct）、保险（0.77 pct）和机械设备（0.59 pct）。剔除行业主题基金影响后，主动加仓最多的四个行业分别是保险 （1.03pct）、金属材料及矿业（0.90pct）、化学品（0.86pct）和机械设备（0.62pct）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 覃川桃 杨凯杰 SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490525080004 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% research. ...