证 券 研 究 报 告 报告摘要 2026.2.9 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 Capex计划超预期，为何美股科技反而下跌？ 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260130-20260206) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 3 2. 全球资金流向：资金流入发达市场股市，流出中国股市 3. 资产估值指标：A股ERP较上周小幅上升，仍位于历史中性水平 4. 资产风险情绪：美股散户看涨比例下降，A股隐含波动率显著下行 5. 全球经济数据：美国制造业PMI大幅上行，降息预期小幅上行 6. 风险提示 地缘避险与增长忧虑交织，黄金与工业金属走势分化 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20260130-20260206)美国ADP数据低于预期，美联储3月降息预期升温1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得 4.22%，本周下跌4BP，美元指数上涨0.51%，当前点位为97.6；2）本周泰国、法国市场股市上涨较多，A股全线收跌，恒生科技、科创50 和创业扳指跌幅位列前三，阿根廷、越 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the discussions was the analysis of current macroeconomic policies, focusing on exchange rate fluctuations, trade surpluses, and capital flows, aimed at addressing the challenges faced by the Chinese economy and exploring policy responses [1] - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. economy has shown significant resilience and unexpected growth, with GDP share rising from 21% in 2011 to 26% in 2024, making it one of the few major economies to return to pre-pandemic growth trends [1] - The U.S. economy achieved growth rates of 2.9% and 2.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, defying recession predictions due to strong fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies working in concert [1] Group 2 - The U.S. macroeconomic policy experience offers both lessons and successes, with timely and forceful policy responses during crises, such as the swift action during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023 [2] - However, excessive fiscal relief has led to uncontrollable inflation since 2021, with government debt increasing by over $15 trillion in six years, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2] - The U.S. economy is expected to remain robust in 2026, driven by the stimulus effects of expansionary fiscal spending in 2025, improved interest rate conditions, and the ongoing expansion of the AI industry [4] Group 3 - The key to addressing China's current economic challenges, such as insufficient domestic demand and low prices, lies in "exchanging policy for space and promoting development through reform" [4] - Historical experiences from the late 1990s suggest that proactive fiscal policies should precede structural reforms to create necessary buffer space [4] - The current constraints on fiscal efforts stem from unresolved central-local fiscal relations, indicating that deepening fiscal and tax system reforms is crucial for enhancing policy effectiveness and achieving structural breakthroughs in the economy [4]

编者按: 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济与A股走向备受瞩目。 多地把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%-5.5%，机构预测中值为4.8%，经济稳中向好态势明确。在一系列政策发力见效背景下，中国的投资有 望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲，物价水平或延续温和回暖的势头。 货币政策将继续保持宽松基调，同时在去美元化趋势不断加强的国际背景下，人民币汇率有望继续稳中走强，为A股高质量"慢牛""长牛"格局 奠定了坚实基础。 廖宗魁/文 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济能否延续2024年下半年以来的持续复苏势头，A股能否连续三年走牛，全球经济和国际市场又会如 何演进，成为当下投资者较为关心的问题。 从已经召开的地方两会看，绝大多数省份把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%—5.5%，意味着即将召开的全国两会很可能把2026年全国经济增 长目标定在5%左右。《证券市场周刊》"远见杯"宏观经济预测调查（以下简称"预测调查"）显示，机构们对2026年中国GDP增长预测中值为 4.8%，经济稳中向好的态势延续。 在一系列政策发力见效的背景下，中国的投资有望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲， ...

文/卢梦雪 全国首单数字人民币智能合约农民工工资发放业务落地成都。 记者获悉，2月6日，在中国人民银行指导下，数字人民币运营管理中心协调数字人民币业务运营机构， 在成都落地全国首单数字人民币智能合约农民工工资发放业务。该业务依托数字人民币运营管理中心提 供的数字人民币智能合约生态服务平台，实现工资发放自动执行，为服务保障农民工工资支付这项民生 工程探索出了数字金融和普惠金融新模式。 具体来说，在本次农民工工资发放场景中，依托于智能合约生态服务平台，数字人民币业务运营机构交 通银行为总包企业开立单位钱包，并加载智能代发合约，控制资金不被挪用，并按照工资明细足额发 放。 通俗来讲，数字人民币智能合约通过一套基础设施、规则标准和产品体系实现合同的数字化、自动化和 强制执行，杜绝人为干预，而且支持跨机构的互通调用。在中国人民银行指导下，数字人民币运营管理 中心负责提供数字人民币智能合约生态服务平台，并制定相应的智能合约应用标准。参与银行可在此基 础上与自有业务系统融合，为不同应用场景灵活打造产品解决方案。 截至2026年1月末，数字人民币智能合约在预付资金管理、供应链金融、企业集团财务管理、补贴发放 等领域试点应用， ...

急速滑行的冰刀、空中翻转的雪板……冬奥的赛场上，心跳与秒表共振。赛场之外，万里之遥的广袤雪乡中，金融暖流也与冰雪经济的脉搏共生。随 着"尔滨"文旅的火爆出圈，冰雪旅游成为现象级的热点，冰雪运动的体验也令人心向往之。 在大力普及冰雪运动的背景下，呼和浩特某实业有限公司承接了建设和运营马鬃山滑雪场的项目，正面临滑雪场的扩建和设施升级阶段的大量资金需 求。了解到这一困境，呼和浩特分行通过银团贷款方式，大力支持滑雪场雪道开发、交通配套（如滑雪公交专线、夜场巴士）及周边民宿建设，助力其从单 一滑雪场地升级为综合性度假目的地，打造冰雪与草原文化、休闲度假、民俗体验等融合的"冰雪+文旅"综合性旅游项目。 近年来，"冷资源"持续释放"热效应"，也为地方配套产业的升级、消费焕新等提出了更高的要求。浦发银行早早地将目光投向雪原，通过特色信贷产品 与综合服务方案率先布局、积极行动，成为冰雪中最温暖的金融同行者。 精准滴灌重大项目建设 在国家大力发展冰雪产业的政策引领下，冰雪经济发展已经成为北方多地的特色产业，也是推动绿色发展和经济转型的重要着力点。 在辽宁沈阳，作为辽宁省承接"十五冬"雪上赛事的核心承建方，辽宁省雪上产业开发建设有 ...

【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 热点板块波动加剧，股指震荡运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2026-02-09 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和 | | 业绩预告披露期，板块业绩呈现分化格局。截至1月31日，共有3057家上市公司披露业绩预告。预喜的上市公司共有1638家，占 | | 企业盈 | 中性 | 比53.6%；预盈的上市公司共有1518家。分行业看，有色金属、非银金融等行业紧抓周期性机会业绩优异，硬件设备、半导体、 | | 利 | | 汽车与零配件等新动能产业表现亮眼，以钢铁为代表的传统产业利润结构持续优化。 | | | | 宽基ETF的卖出节奏近日呈现放缓趋势。此前自1月15日起，机构曾集中减持宽基指数ETF，截至1月27日累计规模超过7000亿元， | ...

- The report discusses the performance of major domestic market indices over the past week, with the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showing varying degrees of change[2] - The micro-cap stock indicator monitoring includes a rotation strategy based on the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" and the 20-day closing price slope of the Wind micro-cap stock index[2][18] - The rotation strategy is currently in a balanced configuration, with part of the positions switching back to the micro-cap stock index based on the 20-day closing price slope and the M1 indicator's 6-month moving average[2][18] - The timing and risk control for micro-cap stocks are monitored using indicators such as the volatility congestion rate and the 10-year government bond yield, which are currently within controllable risk ranges[18][19] - The report also includes a summary of the macroeconomic environment, highlighting the impact of the 2026 Central No. 1 Document on agricultural asset capitalization and the "Happy New Year Shopping" initiative to boost domestic demand[3][37] - The overseas market is experiencing a divergence between manufacturing recovery and employment decline, with AI-driven infrastructure investments in copper and power equipment being seen as opportunities[4][38] - The report suggests a barbell strategy for tactical allocation, focusing on consumer services and AI-related sectors[4][38] - The report tracks the performance of various quantitative stock selection factors, noting that value and volume-price factors performed well, while growth and consensus expectation factors showed some pullback[5][52] - The report includes detailed construction and monitoring of convertible bond selection factors, with positive performance noted for stock value and convertible bond valuation factors[5][57] - The macro timing strategy model recommends a 70% equity position for February, with strong signals from economic growth and monetary liquidity[47][48]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.17% and a total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market experienced gains, with sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, short drama games, optical fiber, CPO, dyes, cultivated diamonds, semiconductors, and computing power leasing leading the gains, while sectors like liquor, oil and gas, and banking lagged behind [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 3.1%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.4%, and the STAR Market 50 Index was up by 2.0%, indicating a broad-based rally in the market [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors, which together account for nearly 60% [4] - The STAR Market 50 Index is composed of 50 stocks from the STAR Market with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring "hard technology" leaders, with semiconductors making up over 65% and combined with medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment accounting for nearly 80% [4]

据马来亚 银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元在亚 洲时段兑美元走强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元风险偏向下行，而我们对新加坡元保持建设性观 点。"分析师表示，这一判断基于新加坡经济增长强劲、通胀可控，以及新加坡元作为避险资产的可信 度。 ...

2025年四季度末，光模块龙头中际旭创以1.28亿股持股总量、782.32亿元持股市值，首次超越宁德时代登顶主动权益基金第一大重仓股，1100多只持仓基金的"抱 团"态势一度成为市场焦点。但登顶仅月余，该股便开启回调模式，截至2月6日，年内累计下跌超10%，单日最大跌幅达8.94%，多只重仓基金净值同步回撤超 5%，再度引发市场对"基金第一重仓股魔咒"热议。 要客观研判"基金第一重仓股魔咒"这一市场现象，需依托长期、大样本的实证数据。基于Wind平台2003年至2025年共92个报告期的统计显示，在成为第一重仓股 后，39只登顶标的在后续3个月跑输沪深300指数，占92个报告期的42.39%；6个月、12个月跑输比例分别为45.65%、46.74%。这一量化结果，为理性分析该现象的 统计规律提供了客观依据。 | | | | 部分主动权益基金第一大重仓股登顶后的市场表现一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主动权益基金第一大 重仓股名称 | | 报告期归母净利 润同比增长率 | 报告期后3个月相对于沪深 300指数的涨幅(%) | 报告期后6个月相对于 ...