【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shenzhen Real Estate (Deepin Real Estate A) has shown significant fluctuations, with a recent increase in share price and substantial growth in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 3, Deepin Real Estate A's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 22.82 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.72 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 230.86 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 3.63%, with a 13.42% increase over the last five trading days, while it has decreased by 19.36% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Deepin Real Estate A reported a revenue of 899 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 331.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 145 million CNY, which is a remarkable increase of 2791.57% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing amount to 1.181 billion CNY, with 61.71 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Deepin Real Estate A increased to 38,400, reflecting a growth of 5.69% [2]. - The fourth largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 6.9351 million shares, an increase of 1.8974 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

政策层面的持续发力，是本轮市场情绪改善的重要基础。近期各地在稳楼市方面的表态更加明确，因城施策力度不断加大，核心城市在购房限制、信贷支 持、存量房消化等方面的政策工具逐步丰富。这些举措虽然难以在短期内迅速拉动销售大幅反弹，但对于稳定市场预期、改善房企现金流具有重要意义。尤 其是在融资端，房地产企业外部环境较此前明显改善，市场对系统性风险的担忧明显下降。和众汇富认为，政策目标已从单纯压降风险，转向在防风险基础 上推动行业平稳运行。 港股房地产板块的同步走强，也为市场提供了重要参照。相比A股，港股地产股此前调整幅度更深，估值长期处于历史低位。近期在全球风险偏好回暖及内 地房地产政策预期改善的共同推动下，港股地产板块出现集中反弹。这一变化不仅反映国际资金对中国房地产市场的预期边际改善，也体现出市场对行业长 期价值的重新评估。和众汇富研究发现，部分具备资产质量和现金流优势的房企，已开始获得中长期资金的关注。 值得注意的是，本轮反弹并不意味着行业已经进入全面复苏阶段。从供需结构看，房地产市场仍面临明显分化。一线及部分强二线城市，因人口吸引力和产 业支撑较强，需求韧性相对突出，而部分三四线城市仍受到库存和人口流出等因素制 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant number of companies facing delisting risks due to poor financial performance, with only 24% of ST stocks showing positive results [1][2] - A total of 178 ST stocks were analyzed, with 118 continuing to incur losses, indicating a concerning trend in the market [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance of ST Stocks - Among the 178 ST stocks, 118 reported continued losses, while only 33 managed to turn a profit, and 12 reported first-time losses [2] - The largest projected loss comes from ST Chenming, with an estimated loss of 8.2 billion to 8.8 billion yuan, marking its third consecutive year of losses totaling 16.9 billion yuan [2][3] - ST Keli Da expects a net loss of 160 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, a drastic decline of 1964.13% to 2430.16% compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Delisting Risks - Several companies, including ST Yanshi and ST Jinglun, have triggered financial delisting indicators, with ST Yanshi expected to have an operating income below 300 million yuan for 2025 [4] - ST Jinglun anticipates a negative net profit for 2025, with its stock facing potential delisting risks due to financial performance [4][5] - Audit firms have indicated that some ST stocks may receive non-standard audit opinions, further increasing delisting risks [4] Group 3: Recovery Efforts - Some ST stocks are attempting to recover through restructuring and asset sales, with ST Jinke projecting a turnaround with a net profit of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for 2025 after completing a restructuring plan [6] - ST Songfa expects a net profit of 2.4 billion to 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, following a significant asset restructuring that shifted its business focus [6][7] - ST Weir has also seen positive impacts on its performance through strategic asset acquisitions and divestitures, projecting a net profit of 19 million to 22 million yuan [7]

Group 1: Domestic Policy - The unified market policy will become an important policy line for 2026 and the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need to deepen and transcend "involution" [1][5][6] - The focus will be on governance of local government behavior and related reform measures, covering areas such as anti-monopoly, local government investment attraction, and tax system reform [5][6][27] - The policy's impact will extend from industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles to electricity, transportation, technology, and data [5][6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Yum China (09987.HK) - The Western fast food market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3%, led by the hamburger segment, which holds a 70.6% market share [8][9] - Yum China maintains a strong market position with a 27.5% share, and the market concentration is high, with the top five companies accounting for 44% of the market [8][9] - The company has a large store network with a low closure rate, reaching 17,514 stores by Q3 2025, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2014 to 2024 [9] - The company has a strong local innovation capability, with 5.75 million members contributing to 57% of sales, and maintains healthy profit margins of 18.5% for KFC and 13.4% for Pizza Hut [9][10] - The company is expected to generate revenues of $11.7 billion, $12.4 billion, and $13.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $900 million, $1 billion, and $1.1 billion respectively, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 18, and 16 times [8][10] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 24.7% year-on-year decline in sales, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [18][20] - The sales area also decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [18][20] - The top three companies in the industry achieved a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while other segments experienced significant declines [18][20] - Companies focused on first and second-tier cities showed a smaller decline in sales compared to those in lower-tier cities, with a difference of approximately 11% [19][20] - Recommendations include focusing on second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike and quality state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [20]

2026年第4周（1.26-2.1），本周房地产领域中央层面的动向有两方面值得重点关注： 一是监管端出现边际调整， 部分出险房企不再被监管部门要求每 月上报"三条红线"指标； 二是发展产业联动房地产去库存， 本周出台的支持养老产业发展的相关措施、培育服务消费新增长点的工作方案，均提及通过 发展相关产业助力房地产行业去库存。 地方层面， 优化公积金成为本周地方发力重点， 共有8地出台了相关稳市场政策，典型如天津将公积金贷款额度上限从120万元提升至144万元，多孩家 庭首套房可获得最高贷款额度。 多地积极落实中央下调商业用房首付的政策， 将商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例下调至30%，吉林、山东、甘肃、西 藏等省份均明确发文落实这一新规。 | 日期 | 部委/省市 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | １月 28 日 | 监管部门 | 多家房企:目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标 | | １月 28 日 | 三部委 | 深化自然资源要素保障支持养老服务改革发展 | | 1月29日 | 国务院 | 鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产,支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设 | | 1月26日 | ...

转自：上观新闻 报告显示，今年上海将推进老旧住宅加装、更新电梯，强化房屋全生命周期安全管理。加强党建引领物 业治理，提升物业服务标准化、专业化水平。加快构建房地产发展新模式，推进"好房子"建设，推动房 地产高质量发展。 报告表示，今年要深化五个新城建设，大力推进新城产业细分赛道发展，提升联影小镇、东方美谷等特 色园区能级，加快松江大学城科创源建设，导入新一批重大产业项目和功能性平台，拓展区区结对合作 深度，建成中山医院国家医学中心青浦院区等公共服务设施。 报告显示，今年要深入实施城市更新行动。推动城中村改造提速扩容增效，全面启动整体改造项目，全 力做好村居民征收安置。完成20万平方米旧住房成套改造。 上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。 ...

Group 1 - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, while there were no new issuances or maturities for perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - The total issuance and net financing of ordinary credit bonds for the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, were 307.4 billion yuan and 183.6 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 328.8 billion yuan and 140.9 billion yuan in the previous period [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 196.5 billion yuan, while the issuance of urban investment bonds slightly increased to 110.9 billion yuan, with net financing for urban investment bonds significantly rising to 64.3 billion yuan [3][5] Group 2 - In the secondary market, yields and credit spreads showed differentiation, with high-quality bonds performing better than perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - Most yields for high-quality bonds decreased, except for certain maturities, with the best performance seen in 5-year urban investment bonds, which saw a decline of 6.32 basis points [3][5] - The credit spreads for various categories varied, with short-term low-quality high-quality bonds showing better performance, particularly in the 3-year AA-rated medium-term notes and urban investment bonds [3][5][6] Group 3 - The overall pressure in the bond market for February is manageable, with limited room for compression in credit spreads, but the certainty of carry value in short- to medium-term credit bonds remains [3][5] - Recent positive performance in the bond market has been driven by allocation and a cooling equity market, with expectations for stable liquidity from the central bank [3][5] - The real estate sector may see a relaxation of financing restrictions, particularly with new loan support for major developers, which could benefit the valuation recovery of leading state-owned enterprises in the sector [3][5] Group 4 - The strategy suggests focusing on short- to medium-term coupon assets, with a recommendation to extend the duration of high-quality bonds to 3-5 years under the current market conditions [3][5] - There is a cautious outlook on perpetual bonds, with a recommendation to wait for better valuation opportunities as supply increases [3][5] - The demand for high-quality bonds is supported by the need for amortized bond funds, with expectations for a delayed start in related credit market activities [3][5]

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）北京市住建委官网数据显示，2月2日北京新房网签166套，网签面积10935.42平方米，其中住宅网签48套，网签面积6970.77平方 米；二手房网签671套，网签面积59428.97方米，其中住宅网签586套，网签面积53413.45平方米。 | 商品房数据统计 | | --- | | 可售期房统计 | | 2025 年12月预售许可 | 2026/2/2期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可售房屋套数: | 91145 | 批准预售许可证: 20 | 网上认购 | | 可售房屋面积(M2):7662037.0900 | | 批准预售面积(M²):542294.9600 | 网上认购面积 | | 其中 | 38826 | 1808 其中 佳宅壹数: | 其中 住宅 | | 面积(M2): 5404276.0800 | | 面积(M2): 248019.1600 | 面积( | | 商业单元： | 227 | 18 商业单元： | 图业 | | 面积(M2): 167506.8100 | | 面积(M2): 11750.1500 | 面积 | | 办公单元: ...