上周市场表现较弱，主要指数全线回调。截止上周五收盘，沪指收于3238.23点，周跌3.11%；上证50收于2619.58点，周跌1.60%。 中信行业板块方面：农林牧渔、商贸零售、国防军工涨幅居前；电力设备及新能源、通信、传媒跌幅居前。 | | | 估值水平 | 周涨跌幅 | 近一季度 | 41 : | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (PE TTM) | | 涨跌幅 | 涨 b . m | | A股主要 | 科创50 | 81. 80 | -0.63% | 6. 43% | 2. 30% | | | 上证50 | 10. 47 | -1.60% | 2. 32% | -2. 43% | | | 沪深300 | 12. 06 | -2. 87% | 0. 48% | -4. 69% | | | 上证综指 | 13. 80 | -3.11% | 2. 20% | -3. 39% | | 证券指 | 科创创业50 | 34. 76 | -4.19% | -3.52% | -8.32% | | 数 | 中证500 | 27.66 | -4.52% | 3. 9 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based signals to determine market timing, identifying bullish or cautious market views based on volume trends[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze the volume trends of major broad-based indices 2. Assign a "bullish" or "cautious" signal based on the volume dynamics 3. For example, as of April 11, 2025, the Beixin 50 index showed a "bullish" signal, while other indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 showed "cautious" signals[23][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and intuitive approach to market timing but may lack robustness in highly volatile markets[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model captures market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 index over a specific period[24][25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of CSI 300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300}} $ 2. Smooth the indicator using two moving averages with different windows (N1 and N2, where N1 > N2) 3. Generate signals: - If the short-term moving average (fast line) exceeds the long-term moving average (slow line), the market is considered bullish - If the fast line falls below the slow line, the market sentiment is turning cautious[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward opportunities but may fail to avoid risks in declining markets[25][27] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 index[32][33] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the closing prices of the CSI 300 index for eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) 2. Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price: - If the current price exceeds five or more moving averages, the market is considered bullish - Otherwise, the market is neutral or bearish[32][33] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear trend-following signal but may lag in rapidly changing markets[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Signal - Beixin 50 Index: Bullish signal[23][24] - Other indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite, CSI 300): Cautious signal[23][24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - CSI 300 Upward Proportion: Approximately 53% in the most recent week[25] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - CSI 300 Index: Currently in a non-bullish sentiment zone[35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index to assess the alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of constituent stocks in indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 2. Compare the recent quarter's average volatility with historical periods to determine the alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Higher cross-sectional volatility indicates a better alpha environment for stock selection[37][41] 2. Factor Name: Time-Series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index returns over time to assess the alpha environment[41][44] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the time-series volatility of indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 2. Compare the recent quarter's average volatility with historical periods to evaluate the alpha environment[44] - **Factor Evaluation**: Higher time-series volatility suggests a favorable alpha environment for active strategies[41][44] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-Sectional Volatility - CSI 300: 1.90% (recent quarter), 77.80% of the past six months' percentile[41] - CSI 500: 2.16% (recent quarter), 42.06% of the past six months' percentile[41] - CSI 1000: 2.52% (recent quarter), 64.54% of the past six months' percentile[41] 2. Time-Series Volatility - CSI 300: 0.63% (recent quarter), 78.84% of the past six months' percentile[44] - CSI 500: 0.48% (recent quarter), 55.56% of the past six months' percentile[44] - CSI 1000: 0.29% (recent quarter), 70.12% of the past six months' percentile[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit recovery, with a projected revenue growth of 67.3% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 940 million yuan, and a net profit growth of 195.8%, amounting to 111 million yuan [1][8]. - The company has achieved notable success in bidding, ranking 20th among over 80 companies in the national grid's centralized bidding, with a total bid amount of 420 million yuan [2]. - The company is expanding its low-altitude intelligent inspection business into various application scenarios, with a projected CAGR of approximately 28.19% from 2022 to 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is expected to generate revenues of 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, 1.75 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.07 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 28.8%, and 17.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The projected net profits are 134 million yuan in 2025, 166 million yuan in 2026, and 184 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 20.8%, 23.6%, and 10.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is expected to be 0.54 yuan in 2025, 0.67 yuan in 2026, and 0.74 yuan in 2027 [1][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for intelligent electric products, with a strong bidding performance and a growing market for smart services [2][3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in the energy storage sector is expected to support future performance, with a significant order backlog of approximately 803 million yuan outside of energy storage as of the end of 2024 [8].

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with an additional 34% tariff specifically on China[1] - This is the largest new tariff policy announced since Trump took office in January 2025, affecting numerous countries and regions[1] - Certain goods, including copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and energy, are exempt from these tariffs[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The tariffs are expected to significantly exceed market expectations, potentially leading to a collapse of the global trade order and a slowdown in economic growth[2] - The U.S. economy may face short-term stagflation, while a mid-term global economic slowdown is increasingly likely[3] - China's reliance on exports has increased since 2018, making it vulnerable to the pressures from Trump's tariffs[3] Group 3: Domestic Policy Response - In response to the tariffs, domestic policies may shift towards monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity measures[4] - The focus will be on managing expectations rather than fiscal stimulus, with a priority on maintaining market confidence[4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should shift from high-risk tech stocks to defensive and safe assets, such as bonds and utilities[5] - Key sectors to focus on include gold, non-ferrous metals, and military industries due to the geopolitical instability caused by the tariffs[5]

宁德时代（300750.SZ） 净利润增长程度高于总收入下降程度，公司战略定力带来盈利质量 显著提升 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 447,375 | 532,242 | 632,038 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 22.0 | -9.7 | 23.6 | 19.0 | 18.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 65,406 | 79,151 | 94,334 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 43.6 | 15.0 | 28.9 | 21.0 | 19.2 | | ROE（%） | 21.3 | 19.7 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 20.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 10.02 | 11.52 | 14.85 | 17.97 | 21.42 | | P/E（倍） | 25.5 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 在当前市场中，分析师报告数量众多，以行业报告为例，每周通常有超过 500 篇的报告。而阅读这些报告通常要花费大量的时间和成本。针对这一 需求，我们利用 DeepSeek-V3 大模型的总结能力对分析师行业报告进行智 能总结和整合，提炼出核心观点和关键信息。 利用大模型衡量景气度 行业研究报告通常提供分析师对行业趋势的深入分析与总体评价，但其应 用性较弱，主要有两个原因。首先，行业评级是行业研报中的标准化输出， 但其并非连续指标，通常仅分为三类，缺乏足够的区分度。因此，分析师 细微的态度和用词变化可能不会导致行业评级的调整。其次，不同证券公 司采用的行业分类标准并不一致，这些差异使得行业比较变得困难。 大模型普及之前，并不容易解决这些问题，而大模型的应用可能为此提供 更有效的支持。为了深入挖掘行业研报的信息，我们对其进行了进一步的 整理与标准化。我们构造了一个能够提取行业研报所涉具体中信一级、二 级行业名称以及对应行业景气度的提示词，并使用 DeepSeek-V3 模型，将 研报摘要作为输入文本得到该研报所属行业、景气度等指标结果。 最新行业研报文本景气度 我 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [3][17]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its closing performance, with a reported revenue of 18.56 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [1]. - The company focuses on differentiated operations, achieving a revenue of 11.07 billion yuan from photovoltaic products, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.36%, while shipments increased by 73% to 17.2 GW [2]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 20.91 billion yuan, 24.02 billion yuan, and 26.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 2.05 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.54 billion yuan [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 19.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.9% [1]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.26 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.0, 10.8, and 9.7 [7]. - The company’s magnetic materials segment contributed 4.58 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 27.32%, while the lithium battery segment achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 56% [2].

Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)", which includes a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises: "Standard Enterprises" and "Leading Standard Enterprises" [3] - Under the broader policy goal of "supply-side better adapting to demand changes", the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is likely to improve accordingly [3] Oil and Chemical Industry - On March 3, OPEC+ decided to increase production, raising concerns about the supply side of crude oil, leading to a drop in oil prices [4] - As of March 7, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices were reported at $70.45 and $67.05 per barrel, reflecting declines of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively from the previous week [4] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of March 7, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets decreased by 0.76% to 32.76 yuan/kg [5] - The average weight of commodity pigs for slaughter was 127.06 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.54 kg, and the cold storage capacity of slaughterhouses rose by 0.50 percentage points to 13.32% [5] Coal Mining Industry - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by strong long-term contract mechanisms [6][7] - The coal industry associations have issued a proposal to control production, indicating their commitment to maintaining the long-term contract system [7] Electric Power and Environmental Protection - The report suggests a balanced allocation among lithium batteries, power grids, and wind power to mitigate volatility in humanoid robots and computing power sectors [8] - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak production season with stable fundamentals, while high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, copper foil, and fast-charging anodes are expected to see price increases [8] Automotive Industry - The focus on automotive intelligence was highlighted during the National People's Congress, with expectations for significant growth in electric vehicle consumption in 2025 [9] - The release of new car models is anticipated to boost consumer demand, and the impact of potential escalations in US-China tariff conflicts on export component companies is under observation [9] Technology Industry - A significant number of computing power leasing orders have been announced, and policies related to robotics are being released [10] - The government work report mentioned key technology areas such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology, indicating a focus on advanced technological development [10]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 04 日 阿特斯（688472.SH） 组件业务显现韧性，大储放量穿越周期 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 47,536 | 51,310 | 46,161 | 48,983 | 56,887 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 69.7 | 7.9 | -10.0 | 6.1 | 16.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,157 | 2,903 | 2,291 | 3,530 | 4,074 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 6065.4 | 34.6 | -21.1 | 54.1 | 15.4 | | ROE（%） | 18.3 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 13.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.96 | 1.10 | | P/E（倍） | 18.6 | 13.8 | 17.5 | 11.4 | 9.9 | | ...

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 行 业 研 究 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 沪深300 电力及公用事业指数 电力设备及新能源指数 数据来源: iFind,英大证券研究所 分析师:游虎 执业证书编号: S0990523060001 电话: 0755-83007019 邮箱: youhu@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 相关报告 电力能源行业周报 (2025.2.3-2025.2.9) 电力能源行业周报 (2025.1.20-2025.1.27) 电力能源行业周报 (2025.1.13-2025.1.19) 电力能源行业周报 (2025.1.6-2025.1.12) 电力能源行业周报 (2024.12.30-2024.1.5) 电力能源行业周报(2024.12.23-2024.12.29) 电力能源行业周报(2024.12.16-2024.12.22) 电力能源行业周报 (2024.12.9-2024.12.15) 电力能源行业周报 (2024.12.2-2024.12.8) 电力能源行业周报 (2024.11.25-2024.12.1) 电力能源行业周报(2024.11.18-20 ...