智通财经APP获悉，蛇年末最后一个交易日，港股低开低走，午后跌幅略微收窄，尾盘三大指数悉数走 低。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.72%或465.42点，报26567.12点，全日成交额为2575.78亿港元；恒生国企 指数跌1.55%，报9032.71点；恒生科技指数跌0.90%，报5360.42点。 中金指出，港股近期回调是基本面依然偏弱情况下，市场担忧流动性收紧和港股特色结构吸引力下降的 共同结果。在整体信用周期震荡甚至阶段走弱的情形下，市场指数层面空间有限(恒指基准点位28000- 29000)，机会主要来自景气结构或指数意外回撤。配置方向上，大思路依然是跟随信用扩张方向，在AI 科技、周期、消费和分红四大领域里，仍以AI科技和周期为主线，这也是当前信用扩张的主要方向。 蓝筹股表现 紫金矿业(02899)领跌蓝筹。截至收盘，跌7.64%，报41.58港元，成交额41.31亿港元，拖累恒指33.26 点。近期，避险情绪上升叠加大宗商品风险抛售等市场氛围烘托，有色金属今日全线回落。兴业证券认 为，有色短期将进入商品降波交易，改节奏但不改方向。一季度后端的旺季基本面具备支撑，若年后宏 观预期端不出现方向性扭转的前提 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.72% [1] - The Tech Index fell by 0.9% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Tencent Music (01698.HK) experienced a decline of over 9% [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped by more than 7% [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both fell by over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tibet Mining (000762) has clarified market rumors and responded to project progress, which may positively impact short-term stock price sentiment [1] Group 1: Company Announcements - On February 9, 2026, the company stated it is not involved in the equity transfer of the Tinggong Copper Mine and clarified that Nimu Copper Industry is a subsidiary of the controlling shareholder, not related to direct acquisition matters [1] - On February 10, 2026, Tibet Mining confirmed its commitment to advancing the Zabuye Salt Lake Phase II project as planned, aiming for capacity release, with specific production details to be provided in regular reports [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock price of Tibet Mining showed a fluctuating upward trend over the past 7 days (February 9 to 13, 2026), with a cumulative increase of 5.29%, outperforming the market (Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% in the same period) [2] - Specific stock prices during this period include: February 9 at 26.14 yuan (up 0.97%), February 10 at 25.87 yuan (down 1.03%), February 11 at 26.44 yuan (up 2.20%), February 12 at 27.13 yuan (up 2.61%), and February 13 at 27.26 yuan (up 0.48%) [2] - On February 11, there was a net inflow of 24.53 million yuan in main funds, but on February 12, it turned into a net outflow of 25.86 million yuan, indicating short-term capital divergence [2] - The current stock price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 30.84 yuan, indicating significant short-term resistance, while the MACD indicator remains in the negative zone but is slightly narrowing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its strategic position in the lithium resource sector, particularly in Sichuan, which is a key lithium resource base in China, holding over 5 million tons of proven spodumene reserves, accounting for more than 80% of the national total and ranking first in Asia [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company's significant subsidiary, Jinxin Mining, has identified lithium oxide reserves of 112.07 thousand tons at the lithium spodumene mine in Dangba, Sichuan, making it the first lithium resource in Sichuan to exceed one million tons [1] - The Dangba lithium deposit is noted as the largest proven granite pegmatite lithium deposit in Asia [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Sichuan is highlighted as the most important lithium resource base in China, reinforcing the company's strategic advantage in the domestic lithium market [1] - The company aims to enhance its domestic layout by leveraging Sichuan's lithium resources, which will solidify its industrial development foundation and contribute to national supply chain security [1]

机构观点 机构研究显示，金诚信最近90天内获5家机构评级，其中4家为"买入"、1家为"增持"，综合目标价91.38 元，较当前股价存在13.39%上涨空间。券商研报指出，长期来看，全球金属需求释放及中资企业出海 加速有望推动矿业行业高质量发展，具备资源与资金优势的企业更具竞争力。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网 金诚信（603979）于2026年2月10日晚发布公告，披露拟追加收购哥伦比亚CMH公司 42.50%股权，交易对价为一次性支付1.28亿美元自有资金。若完成收购，公司对CMH公司的持股比例 将从55%提升至97.5%，实现对San Matias项目Alacran铜金银矿床的绝对控制，强化海外矿产布局。该 矿采矿权评估价值为2.22亿美元，但目前尚未产生收入。 股票近期走势 近7天（截至2026年2月13日），金诚信股价波动显著。2月11日股价报收75.70元，单日上涨4.27%，成 交额6.01亿元；但主力资金净流出1062.43万元。2月12日股价微涨0.24%至75.88元。5日内累计涨幅达 4.92%，区间最高价为76.98元（2月11日）。融资余额近期呈波动状态。 ...

格隆汇2月13日｜据日本广播协会，日本正在与纳米比亚沟通，希望获得该国的稀土资源。 2026年非洲 矿业投资大会本周在南非开普敦举行，期间，日本官员和纳米比亚官员进行了会谈。会谈后，日本官员 表示，将推进具体研究，以确保日本企业从中受益。 报道称，此前，隶属于日本经济产业省的日本金 属与能源安全保障机构（JOGMEC）在纳米比亚矿山中发现了大量重稀土矿床。 当前，日本急切想摆 脱所谓对中国的稀土依赖。本月2日，日本海洋研究开发机构就曾宣布，深海探测船"地球"号从南鸟岛 海域的水深约5600米处海底采掘了含稀土的淤泥。 ...

作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 免责条款 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，节前钢厂有所复产，矿石终端消耗持续回升，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比增加，增幅有所 扩大，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市矛盾不断累积，难以承接持续提产，矿石需求增量空间将受限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口 到货回落，且飓风扰动下矿商发运大幅下降，短期海外矿石供应收缩，但持续性不强，相应的内矿生产弱稳，高库存局面下供应压力未缓 解。总之，铁矿石需求迎改善，而供应短期收缩，矿石基本面有所变化，但改善持续性存疑，现实格局相对弱稳运行，预计矿价延续低位 震荡运行，假期关注成材累库和矿山发运情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stark contrast between the booming secondary market for non-ferrous metals and the lack of investment in the primary market, particularly in mining, highlighting the structural disconnect between venture capital (VC) and mining investments [3][4][17]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable increase, with the Shenwan Nonferrous Index rising by 94.73% in 2025, outperforming other sectors like telecommunications and electronics [3]. - In Hong Kong, copper-related stocks surged by 261%, with major companies like Zijin Mining reaching a market capitalization of over 1 trillion yuan and Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price nearly tripling [3]. - Despite a significant drop in early 2026, the non-ferrous metals sector continued to lead all market segments [3]. Group 2: Investment Discrepancies - There is a notable absence of VC investments in mining, with significant funding directed towards sectors like semiconductors (1,419 deals, 185 billion yuan) and AI, while mining received little attention [3][6]. - The article emphasizes that the disconnect is not due to a lack of interest but rather the inherent differences in investment timelines, valuation language, and exit strategies between VC and mining [6][7]. Group 3: Structural Constraints - VC funds typically have a lifespan of 7 to 10 years, while mining projects can take 5 to 8 years to develop, creating a mismatch in investment horizons [6]. - The language of valuation in VC focuses on metrics like GMV and user growth, which are not applicable to mining, where the focus is on resource reserves and extraction costs [6][7]. - The exit strategy for mining investments is complicated by the fact that significant profits are realized post-production, while secondary markets allow for easier liquidity [6][7]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Models - Some investors are exploring innovative ways to engage with the mining sector, such as investing in technologies that enhance mining efficiency rather than directly in mining rights [9][10]. - Companies like KoBold Metals are using AI to improve mineral discovery efficiency, attracting VC interest due to their scalable technology model [9]. - Major mining companies are also establishing their own investment arms to focus on strategic technologies rather than relying on external VC funding [10]. Group 5: Future Opportunities - The article suggests that there is potential for creating structures that allow VC to participate in mining cycles, such as longer-term funds or financial instruments that mitigate risks [15][16]. - Collaborative projects between mining companies and VCs, where VCs provide technology and mining firms offer resources, could bridge the gap between the two investment worlds [16]. - The ongoing tightening of supply and advancements in technology may present new opportunities for investment in the mining sector, challenging the current status quo [17].

矿业权登记纳入不动产统一登记，核心是将矿的物权确认与行政许可分离，这是对矿产资源管理制度的 根本性重构。通过"权证分离"既强化了矿业权人的合法权益保护，又提升了政府监管效能，为矿业高质 量发展提供了坚实的制度保障。对企业而言，这不仅是"权证"的分离，更是产权"定心丸"和发展"护身 符"。 2025年12月23日，邢台市被自然资源部确定为矿业权纳入不动产统一登记工作联系点，核心任务是落 实"权证分离"改革，推动矿业权登记纳入不动产统一登记体系，提升登记规范化与便利化水平，强化矿 业权物权保护。邢台市精准对标自然资源部要求，从制度构建、系统完善、业务办理、资料移交等关键 环节统筹发力，先后制定《邢台市矿业权不动产登记试点实施方案》，出台《邢台市矿业权不动产登记 操作规范（试行）》《邢台市自然资源和规划局关于矿业权登记职责移交的通知》等配套制度，搭建起 权责清晰、衔接有序的工作框架。下一步该市将继续深入研究矿权出让、登记、许可业务协同联动办 理，探索对外"一个窗口"实施"一站式"服务，实现通过共享获取相关信息，申请人不再重复提交。 "这本证书对我们来说，不只是一本法定权属证明，更有种'多年规范经营终获权威认可'的归 ...