Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification Number: F3075616 [2] - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] Key Data - Weekly Production Silicomanganese - National Weekly Production: 19.48 million tons, a decrease of 2,135 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.26% [3] - Inner Mongolia: 9.77 million tons, an increase of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.71% [3] - Ningxia: 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.20% [3] - Guangxi: 1.07 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.44% [3] - Guizhou: 1.49 million tons, an increase of 945 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.35% [3] - Yunnan: 0.74 million tons, a decrease of 1,890 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.59% [3] - Other Regions: 2.07 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.98% [3] Ferrosilicon - National Weekly Production: 10.72 million tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.22% [3] - Inner Mongolia: 3.80 million tons, a decrease of 490 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.06% [3] - Ningxia: 2.61 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.44% [3] - Shaanxi: 1.84 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.05% [3] - Qinghai: 1.39 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.30% [3] - Gansu: 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 560 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.98% [3] - Other Regions: 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] Data Notes - Steel Union terminal update date is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week [6] - Data Source: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon - manganese market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory. The supply has seen a slight decline recently, and the demand side is affected by the national policy of reducing crude steel production. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance with inventory accumulation. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: This heating season, the overall energy supply and demand are balanced, and the national unified power plants have sufficient coal storage. South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The steel industry has turned from loss to profit from January to October [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US employment market is weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December 9 - 10 meeting [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has risen rapidly for 8 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly from a high level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 3.3 tons, and the iron - water production has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 300 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 415 yuan/ton. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Leading manganese - based enterprises plan to promote 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction in the industry, but the supply has not decreased significantly. The supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 741,200 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, a decrease of 14 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts were 14,758, a decrease of 5579 from the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts was 236, an increase of 72 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 162 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 points [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 121,727 tons, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week, and the weekly supply was 194,775 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5000 tons to 368,000 tons [27][33]. - **Upstream**: The electricity price and manganese ore price remained unchanged. As of November 21, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.296 million tons, an increase of 0.77%. The arrival of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased to 0. The silicon - manganese spot profit remained in a loss state [39][45][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

价格 铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5120 | 0 0 | -50 -80 | 5400 5470 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5390 5380 | -26 -12 | -56 -30 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5344 | -32 | -56 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -50 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5430 | -38 | -66 | | | 陕西#75 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 10 | 26 | 6 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-28 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3093 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.19%）。当日注册仓单 37919 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 106.9617 万手，环比减少 131083 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3293 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.33%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 87.6319 万手，环比减少 58870 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron market is subject to market sentiment disturbances and experiences wide - range fluctuations; the manganese silicon market has a firm price at the ore end and also experiences wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2603 has a closing price of 5390, down 26 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 317,259 and an open interest of 248,587; silicon iron 2605 has a closing price of 5344, down 32, with a trading volume of 15,619 and an open interest of 46,850; manganese silicon 2601 has a closing price of 5626, down 4, with a trading volume of 144,376 and an open interest of 332,903; manganese silicon 2605 has a closing price of 5676, down 6, with a trading volume of 46,011 and an open interest of 143,373 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5120 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 41.5 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 820 yuan/ton [1] Spread Data - The spot - 03 futures spread of silicon iron is - 270 yuan/ton, up 26; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese silicon is - 126 yuan/ton, up 4; the near - far month spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 is 46 yuan/ton, up 6; the near - far month spread of manganese silicon 2601 - 2605 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 2; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 is 238 yuan/ton, up 26; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 332 yuan/ton, up 26 [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News Price Quotes - On November 27, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5050 - 5150, in Ningxia is 5100 - 5150 (down 25), in Qinghai is 5100 - 5150 (down 25), in Gansu is 5100 - 5200, in Inner Mongolia is 5100 - 5150; the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5700 - 5750, in Ningxia is 5600 - 5650, in Qinghai is 5600 - 5650, in Gansu is 5600 - 5650 (down 25), in Inner Mongolia is 5650 - 5700; the FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1020 - 1040 (down 10), the FOB price of 75 silicon iron is 1090 - 1120 (down 10 - 20); the northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5600 yuan/ton [2] - Yunnan Qujing Chengsteel finalized the purchase price of silicon iron at 5690 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 400 tons [2] Production Data - In November, the operating rate of silicon iron enterprises in Inner Mongolia is 63.03%, up 0.64% from October, with an estimated output of 15.87 million tons, up 0.73 million tons from October, and a capacity utilization rate of 66.1%; the operating rate of silicon iron enterprises in Gansu is 38.67%, down 2.66% from October, with an estimated output of 4.47 million tons, down 1.15 million tons from October, and a capacity utilization rate of 35.42% [3] - In November, there are 14 silicon manganese enterprises operating in other northern regions, with 23 furnaces in operation at the end of the month. The silicon manganese output in November is 79,700 tons (up 2300 tons) [3] - In November, there are 3 silicon manganese enterprises operating in Sichuan and Chongqing regions, with 12 furnaces in operation. The total output of silicon manganese in Sichuan and Chongqing is about 53,200 tons (down 2800 tons) [3] - In November, a 6014 factory in Hunan stopped production due to a 0.1 - yuan increase in electricity price. A new production capacity was put into operation in the middle of the month, and it is expected to start production in early December. The silicon manganese output in other southern regions in November is about 5200 tons (down 1400 tons) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Subject to market sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: The price of the ore end is firm, wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 futures was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.31%); the open interest decreased by 5,496 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 futures was 3,093 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the closing price of HC2601 futures was 3,293 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%). Spot prices in some regions declined, and there were changes in basis and spread values [7] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, a decrease of 22 million tons (2.5%) from the previous month. In October 2025, national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, etc. [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 futures decreased by 26 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of silicomanganese 2601 and 2605 futures decreased by 4 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices and various spread values showed corresponding changes [11] - **Macro - Industry News**: In November, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 63.03%, an increase of 0.64% from October, and the output was expected to be 158,700 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from October; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu was 38.67%, a decrease of 2.66% from October, and the output was expected to be 44,700 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from October. There were also changes in the production of silicomanganese in other regions [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,071 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton (- 1.2%); the closing price of J2601 coke futures was 1,607 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). Spot prices and basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spread values of different log futures contracts showed various changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, the General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset. For silicomanganese, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The overall alloy valuation is not high, with cost support. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract closed at 5390, down 26 from the previous day and 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 317,259 (down 75,844 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,279 (up 19,308 from the previous day) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5628, unchanged from the previous day and up 14 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 144,376 (up 20,465 from the previous day) and an open interest of 332,903 (down 37,054 from the previous day) [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5520, unchanged from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5500, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5480, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5530, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5630, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and down 24 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 140, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 320, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; SF - SM spread was - 238, down 26 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 128, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 148, unchanged from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 98, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was priced at 39.8, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.1 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, down 0.1 from the previous day and the previous week; Gabon lump was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 from the previous week [2][3][4] - Lanthanum semi - coke small materials: In Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2][3][4] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon - On November 27, the spot price was stable overall. The supply is in a downward trend as alloy plants enter the maintenance phase. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the recent weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The cost of ferroalloy electricity prices in each region is generally stable. Overall, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and with a low self - valuation level, it should be operated with a bottom - oscillation mindset [6] 3.2.2 Silicomanganese - On November 27, manganese ore spot was slightly weak, with Tianjin Port semi - carbonate down 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and silicomanganese spot also slightly weak, with some regional spots down 20 yuan/ton. The supply is in a downward trend. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot price is firm, leading to an increase in the cost. Under stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall alloy valuation is not high, and the cost is supported, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, etc [9][11][13][15][18][24]