Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [2] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5624, daily change -48, weekly change -68, trading volume 178,709, daily change -46,606, open interest 218,692, daily change 8,632 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5874, daily change -46, weekly change 28, trading volume 141,265, daily change -5,295, open interest 269,474, daily change 1,707 [3] Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some regions down 30 - 40 yuan/ton [3] - Silicomanganese: SiMn6517 prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some cities down 20 yuan/ton [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -264, daily change 8, weekly change 78; Ningxia - main contract basis -254, daily change 18, weekly change 88; etc [3] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -224, daily change 46, weekly change 32; Ningxia - main contract basis -304, daily change 46, weekly change 22; etc [3] - SF - SM Spread: -250, daily change -2, weekly change -96 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had daily and weekly price changes, with Gabon lump up 0.3 yuan/ton degree [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Pieces: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Ferrosilicon - Supply: Sample enterprise开工率 rebounded slightly, but expected to decline in the future under current profit levels [5] - Demand: After blast furnace maintenance ends in January, there will be a phased resumption of production, driving raw material demand; Hebei Iron and Steel's January tender quantity increased significantly compared to December [5] - Cost: Main production area electricity prices were stable recently [5] - Outlook: Supply - demand has marginal improvement momentum, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Silicomanganese - Supply: Some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of the year, supply increased slightly [5] - Demand: Short - term rebar is in a production reduction cycle, blast furnaces are expected to have phased resumption of production in January, supporting raw material demand [5] - Cost: Manganese ore port inventory remained low, port spot prices were firm [5] - Outlook: Driven by cost, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term oscillatory and bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Group 5: Important Information - On January 5, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.8% was quoted at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn41.6% at 42 yuan/ton degree, Gabon Mn45% at 43 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn47% at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - A steel mill in Jiangxi finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5820 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 700 tons [8] Group 6: Related Graphs - Figures 1 - 15 show various data such as ferrous alloy main contract trends, month - to - month spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [9][11][13][15][17][18][20][21][23][26]

（来源：锰言硅语） 《铁合金在线》2026-1-5：今日硅锰期货开盘后震荡下行，主力合约跌下5900线，高位凸显不稳定性。 现货市场方面，工厂报价暂时与节前持平，北方集中在5600-5700元/吨区间，南方集中在5750-5800元/ 吨区间，节前南北5600-5650元/吨区间有部分成交，下游钢招定标在5850元/吨以上。河北代表钢厂尚未 进场采购，开盘首日下跌冲击下，贸易商信心有所动摇。今日期现报价北方产区提货05合约下浮350- 400区间，近期贸易零售成交多集中在5450-5500元/吨区间。 锰矿相对坚挺运行，天津港锰矿现货（元/吨度）：CML澳块报价44，成交43-44；South32澳块报价 42，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35-35.5；加蓬块报价43-43.5，成交42.5-43；钦州港South32 澳块报价41.5-42，成交41-41.5；CML澳块报价42-42.5，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35- 35.5；澳籽分指标报价35.5-37；加蓬块报价41.5-42。锰矿库存方面，截止12月31日天津港库存338.88万 吨，环比下降11 ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：节前有补库需求，价格有一定支撑 p 2 铁合金：节前有补库需求，价格有一定支撑 锰 硅 供应：依据铁合金在线数据，12月全国锰硅产量92.85万吨，环比小幅增加，全年锰硅产量1089.05万吨，同比增加36万吨，增幅为 3.4%。 需求：螺纹产量、样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值均处于历史同期偏低水平。11月我国粗钢产量6987.1万吨，同比下降10.88%。截至12月 末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.26万吨，环比增加0.22%，绝对值仍位于近年来同期最低值。12月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为15.52天，环比 下降0.32天，同比下降0.33天。 库存：样本企业库存持续累积，刷新近年来新高。12月63家样本企业库存持续累积，截至12月末为38.6万吨，刷新近年来新高，同比 增幅超18万吨。 成本与利润：主要原材料价格持稳。依据铁合金在线，截至12月末，内蒙地区锰硅生产成本约5695元/吨，利润率约-2.01%；宁夏地 区约5 ...

Demand - From January to November, national fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to January to October. Real estate development investment fell by 15.9%, a decline that expanded by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous period. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, with a decline of 1 percentage point compared to January to October. Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, a slowdown of 0.8 percentage points compared to January to September, indicating a continued downward trend in investment growth and weak steel demand [1][2] - In December, weekly average demand for rebar was 2.08 million tons, down 7% from November, while hot-rolled coil demand was 3.08 million tons, down 3% from November. Overall, December steel demand was in line with seasonal characteristics, remaining stable year-on-year. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2] Supply - From January to November, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons and 774.05 million tons, down 4% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively. In November, crude steel and pig iron production were 6.987 million tons and 6.234 million tons, down 10.9% and 8.7% year-on-year. Daily average pig iron production in December was 2.2658 million tons, down from November [2] - In December, production of the five major steel products, including rebar and hot-rolled coil, decreased, with weekly production of the five major products down by 58.9 million tons, rebar down by 21.7 million tons, and hot-rolled coil down by 25.5 million tons. Steel mills continued to reduce production, alleviating supply pressure significantly [2] Inventory - In December, inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 1.428 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 972,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory down by 237,000 tons. However, total inventory of the five major products increased year-on-year by 1.4862 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories up by 345,100 tons and 701,300 tons, respectively. The accelerated decline in inventory in December, amid production cuts, alleviated both total inventory and structural contradictions, particularly in rebar, where many regions experienced specification shortages, providing strong support for steel prices [2][3] Exports - In November, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel, an increase of 200,000 tons from October, representing a month-on-month growth of 2.04%. Cumulatively, from January to November, steel exports reached 10.772 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. However, starting January 1, 2026, the implementation of the "Steel Product Export License Management" system is expected to increase export pressure, leading to a noticeable decline in export volume [3] Costs - In December, iron ore prices remained firm, while the fourth round of coke price reductions was implemented, leading to improved profitability for long-process steel mills and a narrowing of losses for short-process steel mills. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 38.1%, indicating a potential weakening of cost support for steel prices. However, in January, steel mills are expected to replenish raw materials, which may lead to stronger performance in raw material prices compared to finished products [3][4] Summary - The steel market in December faced insufficient contradictions and weak driving forces, resulting in continued narrow fluctuations in steel prices. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, while supply may increase as steel mill profitability improves. The market is anticipated to shift to a scenario of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory entering a period of accumulation. Additionally, the implementation of the steel product export license system and customs tax verification is expected to lead to a temporary decline in steel exports, increasing supply-demand pressure and potentially leading to weaker steel prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on January 5, 2026, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5300, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 70; the main contract price was 5672, with a daily decrease of 78 and a weekly increase of 16. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5650, no daily change and a weekly increase of 80, and the main contract price was 5920, with a daily decrease of 22 and a weekly increase of 88 [2] Supply - The report presents historical data on the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly). It also shows the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) [4][6] Demand - The report provides historical data on the estimated production volume of crude steel in China (monthly), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly), and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly). It also shows the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data) [4][7] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), as well as the total number of warehouse receipts of silicon ferroalloy on CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily). For silicon manganese, it presents the total number of warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), along with the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [5][7] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (daily), the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi (daily), the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (yuan/ton), and the profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (spot and converted to the main contract) and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy (in RMB). For silicon manganese, it shows the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steel Union, in yuan/ton), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to remain range - bound. The current production cuts limit the downward drive, but weak demand expectations for the May contracts suppress the upside potential. The upward price elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory restricts the upside of prices, while the expectation of steel mills' restocking at low inventory levels provides support. Short - term focus is on the trend of hot metal production and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and long - term attention is on negotiation situations [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened. The futures price has fallen in advance, and the spot price is gradually adjusting. It is recommended to short the Coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the overall inventory is moderately increasing, and it is also recommended to short on rallies [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and the price lacks upward momentum. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5650 - 5900 yuan. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on January 5, 2026. Rebar futures contracts declined slightly, and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also showed some drops [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices were stable. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 8 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 20 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production remained at 226.5 tons. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.3% to 815.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% to 1232.2 tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts and price spreads between different contracts also showed certain fluctuations [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 1.7%, and the global shipment volume increased by 6.1%. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly production decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices generally declined, with the Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) dropping by 3.2%. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with the Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remaining unchanged [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and the iron water production also showed no change. The supply of coking coal faced pressure, and the demand for coke was weak due to steel mill losses and maintenance [7]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased moderately. The coke total inventory increased by 0.3%, and the coking coal inventory also showed different degrees of increase in various sectors [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 1.4%, and the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.4%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions were mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits remained relatively stable [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production and demand remained stable, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. The demand for both was affected by the steel market [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the market showed a significant upward trend or rebound after a series of important macro - events. The overall market sentiment turned bullish, but there was a risk of short - term market sentiment shock due to the possible "flame - out" of previous sentiment "leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate [15][96]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by the direction of the black market and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push issues on the manganese silicon side and supply contraction problems on the ferrosilicon side [15][96]. - In the context of the current bullish commodity sentiment, low port manganese ore inventory, and concentrated ownership of high - grade manganese ore, it is necessary to pay close attention to possible sudden events in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year [14][59][62]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period [14][70]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 0.00%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [25]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of South African ore was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Australian ore was 41.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 1.7 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Gabonese ore was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 110 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November 2025, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 439.58 tons, down 7.22 tons month - on - month [36]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in December 2025 was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56][59][62]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's perspective was 39.35 tons, up 0.75 tons month - on - month [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December 2025, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level in historical statistics [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In December 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile rebound, rising 300 yuan/ton or 5.33% month - on - month. At the daily - line level, it continued the volatile rebound trend after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024 and was in a short - term upward cycle with no obvious position increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][106]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [95][123][126]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.33 tons, up 0.03 tons month - on - month, remaining at a relatively neutral level in the same period [95][140]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [106]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of semi - coke small materials was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main - production - area electricity price was unchanged month - on - month. The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [109][112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [117]. - **Demand**: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that there is a game between bullish and bearish sentiments in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures prices. The profit has been restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. However, the supply side shows different trends, and the upper space of the futures prices is under pressure [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices fluctuated widely, with the price center of manganese ferroalloy slightly rising. The profit was restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. The supply side showed new start - up and复产 phenomena, and the willingness of factories to hedge was strong, which might put pressure on the futures prices [5]. - In terms of macro - factors, China proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, and the Central Economic Work Conference released many signals for stable growth. There were no significant overseas macro - factors [5]. - Microscopically, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials was slowly recovering. The fundamental contradictions of manganese ferroalloy continued to accumulate, and the previously shut - down silicon ferroalloy factories resumed production [5]. 2. Futures Market - The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The trading volume was 776,386 lots, and the open interest was 218,692 lots, a decrease of 27,548 lots month - on - month [8]. - The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract also fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The trading volume was 700,274 lots, and the open interest was 267,767 lots, an increase of 4,188 lots month - on - month [8]. 3. Spot Market - The spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in major regions of the country oscillated and increased this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in the main production areas was 5,220 - 5,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese alloy in major regions of the country was 5,520 - 5,870 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 6517 - type silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton) [9]. 4. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of manganese ferroalloy was 19.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 tons (a change rate of + 0.6%). The weekly operating rate was 36.89%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points month - on - month [12]. - Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [13]. Demand - A new round of steel procurement is about to start, and steel mills may start the inventory replenishment process [18]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons, which provided weak support for the demand of manganese ferroalloy [20]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 393,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,500 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 23,518, a month - on - month increase of 241, equivalent to an increase of 1,205 tons, and the converted inventory was 117,590 tons [27]. - In December, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with different trends in different regions [27]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply and demand of manganese ore were in a weak balance. The departure volume from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased [31]. - The arrival and clearance of manganese ore at ports decreased, but the supply and demand might still maintain a relative balance [38]. - Overseas mining enterprises raised their quotations, and the port prices were closely related to the high clearance demand. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [44][45]. Profit - The cost center gradually moved up with the increase in ore prices, the futures prices were strong, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy increased with the futures prices [47]. 5. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of silicon ferroalloy was 9.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The weekly operating rate was 29.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month. Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [51][52]. Demand - The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei increased month - on - month, and the raw material inventory replenishment process might start [56]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons [66]. - In terms of non - steel demand, the total output of magnesium metal in December was 8.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The output of stainless - steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [66]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 64,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 750 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 11,491, a month - on - month decrease of 391, equivalent to a decrease of 1,955 tons, and the converted inventory was 57,455 tons [67][68]. - In December, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with different trends in different regions [69]. Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy increased with the futures prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit restoration on the original operating rhythm of factories [76].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2026 to 2032, indicating a significant growth in exports despite a slight decline in export value [1]. Export Data Summary - In November 2025, China's ferroalloy export volume reached 70,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1]. - The export value for the same period was $15.2 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1]. Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]. - The company has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]