1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating upwards. In the medium - to - long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The market may first decline and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation [11]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and it may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested [15]. - The price of polysilicon rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on whether the policy can be implemented, and attention should be paid to risk control [17]. - The glass market lacks positive support and the sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.494%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) and 3190 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.217%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3230 yuan/ton and 3280 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small inventory reduction, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand increased, but inventory was still high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to narrow [2]. - Trump's new tariff remarks affected market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term steel price trend remained unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand pattern was difficult to improve, and attention should be paid to policies around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 773.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.39% (- 3.00). The position increased by 27213 hands to 53.56 million hands. The weighted position was 88.95 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.32% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The terminal inventory pressure was high, and the iron ore price was under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5754 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed at 5456 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton [7][10]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's market. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to manganese ore disturbances. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The weighted position decreased by 463 hands to 429946 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were 9300 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively, with bases of 695 yuan/ton and 295 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52575 yuan/ton, up 3.36%. The weighted position increased by 13651 hands to 278578 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 50.5 yuan/kg, 51.25 yuan/kg, and 52.75 yuan/kg (all unchanged) respectively, with a basis of 175 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to factors such as reduced supply in the dry season in the southwest, cost support, and relative undervaluation. It may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers [15]. - The polysilicon price rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on policy implementation. Attention should be paid to risk control [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59%. The spot prices in North China and Central China were 1210 yuan (down 10 yuan) and 1200 yuan (unchanged) respectively. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 6427.56 million boxes, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 24971 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 37494 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The spot price in Shahe was 1165 yuan, up 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 170.05 million tons, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 14282 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 7241 hands [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market has an expected increase in supply and a decrease in production cost, but the terminal demand is less than expected, and the market sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market has stable supply, weak demand, and light trading, and is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on October 17, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5130 and 5180 respectively, with no daily change and weekly changes of -50 and -20 [2]. - The latest price of Qinghai 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5150, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [2]. - The latest price of Shaanxi 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5100, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [2]. - The latest price of Shaanxi 75 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 6100, with no daily change or weekly change [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block is 5570, with a daily change of 120 and a weekly change of 20 [2]. - The latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy from traders is 5650, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of -50 [2]. - The latest export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1060 and 1110 (in US dollars) respectively, with daily changes of 10 and 5 and weekly changes of 35 and 5 [2]. - For silicon manganese on October 17, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5680, 5600, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 0, -50, -50, -30 and weekly changes of 0, -20, -50, -80, -50 [2]. - The latest prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 silicon manganese from traders are 5600 and 5700 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -20 and weekly changes of -20 and 0 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production, procurement prices, and procurement volumes of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including China's estimated and actual crude steel production, metal magnesium production and prices, silicon ferroalloy export volume and price, stainless - steel crude steel production, and silicon manganese demand in China [5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices in different regions, prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal and silica, production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and profits from converting to the main contract and spot profits in Ningxia [6]. - The cost - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy trend include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] - The rise of ferroalloys today is mainly due to the impact of coking coal, but the weak downstream demand pattern remains unchanged. There are still expectations for policy stimulus, so ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.4%. For silicomanganese, it is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio when SF is at 6200 - 6250 and SM is at 6400 - 6500 to prevent inventory depreciation [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when SF is at 5200 - 5300 and SM is at 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production remains at a high level, but downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with inventory accumulation in five major steel products. Silicomanganese is relatively stronger than ferrosilicon recently [4] - Cost support challenge: Although the prices of blue charcoal, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the continuous decline of coking coal prices challenges the effectiveness of cost support [4] - Contradiction between expectation and reality: There is an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action leads to a high risk of price rising and then falling [4] 利多解读 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to maintain a stable and positive operation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2026 [6] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to eliminate disorderly low - price competition [6] 利空解读 - US President Trump announced that the US will impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese - imported goods starting from November 1st [7] - The inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, with a 160,000 - ton inventory this week, a week - on - week increase of 8.7%. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1%, and silicomanganese enterprise inventory is 242,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [8] - Silicomanganese daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [9] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal [10][11] - There are seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [13][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - **Silicomanganese**: Weak rebound, cautious about shorting [1][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][17] 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream demand for construction steel is still weak, and real estate and infrastructure continue to drag, with limited supply-demand driving forces, high overall steel inventory, and rising risks of contradictions under high hot metal production, so it will run weakly [1][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased, generally in line with seasonal performance. The overall steel demand is still weak, with high inventory levels and a lack of continuous upward drivers on the supply-demand side, so it will run weakly in the short-term range [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are neutral to strong. After the holiday, the inventory of downstream finished products increased instead of decreasing, increasing concerns about industrial negative feedback. Steel mills' profits are significantly compressed, production enthusiasm is gradually declining, and ore prices will run weakly following steel prices [1][6] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increase was delayed, with obvious game between coke and steel enterprises. Coke enterprises' profits are average, and spot production is relatively stable. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will run weakly in the range following coking coal [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of an increase in overall coal mine production, and imports are expected to remain high, so the supply margin will continue to improve. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand tightness has improved, but there may still be disturbances on the supply side later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][13] - **Silicomanganese**: The supply in the production area decreased slightly but the absolute value is still high, and the inventory continued to increase this period. The inquiry price for the silicon manganese tender of a landmark steel mill in October was 5,750 yuan/ton, lower than market expectations. In the short term, the cost side still supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited, so be cautious about shorting [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area is relatively stable, inventory has increased significantly, the steel tender progress in October is slow, and the market is mostly waiting and seeing. There is no short-term upward driving force, so wait and see [1][16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3,034 with a decline of 27; Rebar 05 is at 3,090 with a decline of 24; Rebar 10 is at 2,950 with a decline of 20. Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3,212 with a decline of 29; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is at 3,223 with a decline of 25; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is at 3,610 with an increase of 168 [2] - **Spot Price**: Tangshan billet is at 2,920 with a decline of 10; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3,080 with an increase of 10; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3,190 with a decline of 20; etc. Hot-rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3,200 with a decline of 20; Hot-rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3,280 with a decline of 10; etc [2] - **Basis and Spread**: For example, the basis of Rebar 01 in Shanghai is 156 with an increase of 7; the spread of RB 10 - 01 is -84 with an increase of 7; the spread of hot-rolled coil - rebar in Shanghai is 90 with an increase of 10 [2] Iron Ore - **View**: The fundamentals are neutral to strong, but due to the increase in downstream finished product inventory after the holiday and the compression of steel mills' profits, the ore price will run weakly following the steel price [6] Coke - **Price and Data**: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1,642.0 with a decline of 12.5; the 01 basis is -115 with an increase of 23.3. The full - sample independent coke enterprise capacity utilization rate is 96, the 247 - steel mill average daily hot metal production is 241.5 with a decline of 0.3, etc [9] - **View**: The second - round price increase was delayed, with stable production and relatively balanced supply and demand, running weakly following coking coal [10] Coking Coal - **Price and Data**: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1,151.0 with a decline of 2.5; the 01 basis is 228 with an increase of 2.5. The sample coal washing plant's starting rate is 61.5 with a decline of 0.8, etc [12] - **View**: There is an expectation of supply improvement, but there may be later disturbances, running in a range [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5,746 with an increase of 8; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5,352 with an increase of 30. The spot price of silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 with an increase of 30; the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia is 5,280 with an increase of 30 [15] - **Data**: The silicon manganese enterprise starting rate is 70 with a decline of 0.99; the 187 - silicon manganese enterprise output is 204,225 tons with a decline of 2,205 tons; the 60 - ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,030 with an increase of 3,800 [15] - **View**: Manganese silicon has limited upward driving force but cost support; Ferrosilicon has no short - term upward driving force and the market is waiting and seeing [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are characterized by cost bottom - support and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price is 5376, down 2 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 82,305 and an open interest of 62,164. Ferrosilicon 2601: Closing price is 5352, up 30, trading volume is 109,840, and open interest is 189,336. - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price is 5732, up 6, trading volume is 9,208, and open interest is 15,602. Silicomanganese 2601: Closing price is 5746, up 8, trading volume is 166,961, and open interest is 372,302 [2]. - **Spot Data** - Ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia has a price of 5180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is priced at 5680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 710 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Difference Data** - The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon is - 196 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 66 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. - The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 24 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 14 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 356 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 394 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 14, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Gansu was in the range of 5100 - 5250 yuan/ton, while in Qinghai it was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton, while in Ningxia and Qinghai it decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1140 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton). The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the south it was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [2]. - A northern representative steel mill's October ferrosilicon inquiry price was 5600 yuan/ton (compared to 5800 yuan/ton in September), and the October silicomanganese tender inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton lower than the September price. Industry insiders predict that the final price of large mills may increase by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new tariff policy on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real - demand for steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances. The price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday [5]. - For the black sector, the report is not pessimistic. It is believed that the macro - level factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading. Looking for callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price oscillates mainly. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - For polysilicon, the current short - term price fluctuations are regarded as technical corrections in the structural adjustment process. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3787 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 60083 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 39913 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 17676 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - The new tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment again, causing a short - term impact on commodity prices. In the context of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the overall trend remains unchanged. The weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.70% (- 5.50), and the positions increased by 8566 lots to 50.84 million lots. The weighted positions were 84.91 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.71% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the average daily molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) rose 0.14% to close at 5746 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 144 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) rose 0.56% to close at 5352 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 248 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Views - For the black sector, the price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation. The report is not pessimistic about the black sector's future [8]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's trend. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [9]. - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8570 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+ 50). The weighted contract positions decreased by 12310 lots to 430409 lots. The spot prices of East China's 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of 730 yuan/ton and 330 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50865 yuan/ton, up 1.75% (+ 875). The weighted contract positions increased by 11148 lots to 264927 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1885 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Views - The industrial silicon price oscillates mainly in the short term. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - The polysilicon price is in a fundamental correction stage. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1129 yuan/ton, down 0.79% (- 9). The North China and Central China spot prices were 1220 yuan and 1200 yuan respectively, with the latter decreasing by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million boxes (+ 5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 28850 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 38002 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1232 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (- 2). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 2 yuan to 1162 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%), with the heavy - soda and light - soda inventories increasing by 1.75 million tons and 4.24 million tons respectively. The top 20 long - position holders increased 471 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 4899 lots [19]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20].

铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 15, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746, up 0.31%. The Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,550. Affected by Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, short - term funds shifted to US Treasury bonds and gold. Fundamentally, pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continued to decline slightly, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 21,000 tons, and the molten iron demand was in high - level oscillation. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 170 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. The final price of HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese in September was 6,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 15, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,352, up 0.34%. The Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,200, up 20 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries such as steel. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mostly maintained normal production and delivered previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The semi - coke price was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 480 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. In September, HeSteel's 75B silicon - iron tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,746元/吨，环比上涨8元/吨；SF主力合约收盘价为0元/吨，环比下跌5,378元/吨 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为575,060手，环比减少15,330手；SF期货合约持仓量为426,073手，环比增加14,954手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 53,757手，环比减少5,221手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 31,048手，环比减少2,919手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为30元/吨，环比无变化；SF5 - 1月合约价差为86元/吨，环比下降20元/吨 [2] - SM仓单为49,756张，环比减少161张；SF仓单为13,137张，环比减少528张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,090元/吨，环比下降10元/吨 [2] - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,200元/吨，环比上涨20元/吨 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5,671.9元/吨，环比下降22.1元/吨；SF主力合约基差为5,200元/吨，环比上涨5,398元/吨 [2] - SM主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比下降8元/吨 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为760元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为445.7万吨，环比下降2.1万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.19%，环比下降0.99%；硅铁企业开工率为35.94%，环比上升0.61% [2] - 锰硅供应为204,225吨，环比下降2,205吨；硅铁供应为115,800吨，环比增加1,300吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为242,500吨，环比增加8,700吨；硅铁厂家库存为66,030吨，环比增加4,570吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为122,073吨，环比下降411吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,754.6吨，环比下降111.3吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比下降0.02%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.53%，环比下降0.10% [2] - 粗钢产量为7,736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2] Industry News - 川渝钢铁行业召开“反内卷”研讨会，探讨协同发展路径 [2] - 国际货币基金组织预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点 [2] - 鲍威尔敞开美联储降息大门，将谨慎行动避免“缩减恐慌” [2] - 中汽协称以旧换新等政策对车市拉动效应大，预计补贴申请的汽车以旧换新总量超1200万辆，带动新车销售额近1.7万亿元 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][15] - **Silicomanganese**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] Core Views - **Steel**: Downstream demand for construction steel is weak, with real estate and infrastructure dragging down. High inventory and potential contradictions under high hot metal production lead to a weak operation [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Observe the post-holiday inventory digestion speed. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [1][7] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [1][11] - **Coking Coal**: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][14] - **Silicomanganese**: Production area supply decreases slightly but remains high. Inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Cost supports the price, but the upward drive is limited, with a possible short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price. There may be a short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices mostly declined, and spot prices also showed a downward trend in most regions. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also had corresponding changes [2] - **Market Situation**: Rebar's apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. Hot-rolled coil's apparent demand also declined month-on-month, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased, in line with seasonal performance [4] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. There were changes in spreads, basis, sea freight, and spot indices [6] - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [7] Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] - **Market Situation**: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [11] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and inventory available days [13] - **Market Situation**: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had different changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise operating rates, production, and inventory [16] - **Market Situation**: Silicomanganese production area supply decreases slightly but remains high, inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Ferrosilicon production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price [17]