Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Market Analysis: The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and even well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [2]. - Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton [2]. - Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days [3]. - Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [3]. - Strategy: None [4] Summary According to the Catalog I. Ferrosilicon Market Review In late January 2025, driven by the black sector market, the price of ferrosilicon alloy increased to a certain extent. By early February, the ferrosilicon price reached a relatively high level. Then, as coal prices fell and electricity prices in some regions were adjusted downward, the alloy price weakened further. From March to May, affected by tariff disturbances and weak market expectations, bulk commodities were under pressure, and the ferrosilicon price continued its downward trend. After June, with the stabilization and rebound of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price increased to a certain extent. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [12]. II. The Price Center of Ferrosilicon Has Shifted Downward, and Alloy Enterprises Have Been in Long - Term Losses From January to June 2025, the overall cost center of ferrosilicon shifted downward. After April, affected by the decline in electricity prices and coal prices, the ferrosilicon price oscillated downward, and alloy enterprises took the initiative to reduce production due to profit pressure. Another important factor in ferrosilicon cost is semi - coke, which accounts for about 25% of the cost. In 2025, the semi - coke price dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in ferrosilicon cost. In June, due to safety and environmental inspections in coal - producing regions, coal supply contracted, and the price stabilized and rebounded, followed by a certain increase in the alloy price. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of the year, the semi - coke market reached a relatively low price in the past four years, falling below 600 yuan/ton, and the rebound was limited. The prices of silica and oxidized iron scale used in ferrosilicon production fluctuated slightly and had limited impact on costs. The silica price dropped in the first half of the year and then remained relatively stable, while the oxidized iron scale showed an overall oscillating downward trend and was at a five - year low. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses, with the loss in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 300 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the average monthly production profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was positive. After April, these regions gradually suffered losses, and the losses were severe in June. In July, with the increase in the ferrosilicon price, the average loss of ferrosilicon showed a decreasing trend [14]. III. Supply Increased Year - on - Year, Suppressing the Ferrosilicon Price According to Steel Union data, in June 2025, ferrosilicon production was 414,000 tons, a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. Overall, from January to June 2025, total ferrosilicon production was 2.691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Although the production increased year - on - year, it was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. The year - on - year increase in production further suppressed the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of 2025, the ferrosilicon market lacked positive factors, which affected production. In May, some large factories stopped production for maintenance. In June, Ningxia and Shaanxi showed an increasing trend in production due to cost advantages [26]. IV. Steel Enterprises Had Decent Profits, and Downstream Enterprises Replenished Their Stocks to Some Extent Downstream enterprises had good profitability. Taking Tangshan as an example, hot - rolled coils and threaded steel maintained profitability. Nationwide, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises remained above 50%. With decent profits, steel enterprises had fewer maintenance and production - reduction situations, and the molten iron production remained at a high level. At the same time, steel enterprises replenished their stocks when the alloy price was relatively low. In 2025, the procurement price of steel enterprises decreased significantly, and the ferrosilicon procurement price was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with a downward trend in the first half of the year. With relatively low procurement prices, downstream steel enterprises increased their procurement volume, and the inventory days of downstream enterprises increased. In June, the inventory days in North China, East China, and South China were higher than the same period last year, with the available days of inventory in South China reaching 17 days. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, higher than the inventory level in the same period in 2024. The main downstream sectors of ferrosilicon are steel consumption, stainless steel, and magnesium metal consumption. As of early July, the consumption of ferrosilicon in the five major steel products decreased by 2.0% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production of stainless steel crude steel increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the consumption of ferrosilicon increased accordingly, while the cumulative production of magnesium metal changed little. From January to May 2025, ferrosilicon exports decreased, with a year - on - year decline of 14.2%. The year - on - year increase in ferrosilicon supply and the decline in steel demand and exports led to a higher inventory level in alloy enterprises compared to the same period last year. In June, there was a concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts, and recently, the number of warehouse receipts has shown an increasing trend. According to Huatai Futures' calculation, the overall inventory situation of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the total inventory in the three - link system is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [37]. V. Conclusion The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton. Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days. Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [63].

Summary of Conference Call on Black Commodity Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the black commodity market, focusing on coking coal and steel industries, with references to policies affecting these sectors, particularly the "anti-involution" policies and their implications for supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy Context**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2015 supply-side reform, targeting downstream industries like photovoltaics, automobiles, and new energy, aiming for new capacity trading rather than direct production cuts [1][2]. 2. **Coking Coal Market Dynamics**: - Coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate between 900-920 RMB, influenced by supply reductions due to environmental inspections and market sentiment [1][7][19]. - The sustainability of the recent price rebound is contingent on supply, demand, and market sentiment, with potential pressures from increased supply as inspections ease [7][19]. 3. **Iron Ore vs. Coking Coal**: - Coking coal has a lower import dependency (13%) compared to iron ore (80%), leading to different market behaviors and pricing structures [10][11]. - The iron ore market is more market-driven, with significant price adjustments when costs are breached, while coking coal is more susceptible to policy changes [10][11]. 4. **Profit Distribution Changes**: The profit distribution within the black commodity chain is shifting, with coal price declines benefiting steel mills and mines, leading to lower ratios of rebar to coking coal [13][21]. 5. **Potential Trading Opportunities**: - There are potential short-selling opportunities in the iron alloy market, particularly for manganese silicon, due to low capacity utilization and price pressures [8][9][20]. - The steel industry is facing challenges due to reliance on exports and weak domestic demand, which could further pressure profits [9][21]. 6. **Future Policy Implications**: - The implementation of anti-involution measures may initially impact state-owned enterprises more than private ones due to operational flexibility [3][16]. - The potential paths for implementing these policies include industry self-regulation, price controls, and carbon tax reforms [3][4][16]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment and External Factors**: Recent rebounds in black commodity prices are attributed to macroeconomic recovery expectations, changes in supply-demand relationships, and international market fluctuations [5][6][18]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Environmental inspections have led to temporary supply reductions, contributing to price increases, but these effects may diminish as inspections are lifted [7][19]. - **Steel Production Trends**: Steel production has seen a year-on-year decrease, indicating a contraction in the industry, which may affect future pricing and profitability [9][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the black commodity market, particularly focusing on coking coal and steel industries.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on July 16, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1005, with a daily and weekly decrease of 5. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 100 [2]. - The report shows historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, futures contract prices, and spreads between different contracts [3][4][6]. Supply - The report presents historical data on the production of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China and weekly production of silicon manganese in China [4][6]. - It also shows the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Demand - The report provides historical data on the demand - related indicators of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber), the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese [4][6][7]. Inventory - It shows historical inventory data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the inventory - related data of silicon manganese such as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The report presents historical cost - profit data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including the production cost, profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent bidding prices for silicon iron have shown slight increases across various steel mills, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] - Fujian steel mill announced a silicon iron bidding price of 5550 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 20 CNY/ton from June [1] - A steel mill in North China set its silicon iron bidding price at 5600 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 4500 tons [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve moderately due to the recent bidding prices, although actual demand remains limited due to the traditional off-season [2] - The current mainstream quotation for silicon iron 75B is around 5300 CNY/ton, with cash-inclusive prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranging from 5465 to 5779 CNY/ton [2] - The SF2509 futures contract exhibited a wide fluctuation today, closing at 5494 points, indicating mixed market sentiment with price movements near short-term averages [3] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the silicon iron market may maintain a stable trend in the short term, with limited potential for significant price adjustments [6] - Industry confidence appears to be somewhat cautious due to ongoing reports of steel mill production cuts and the deepening traditional demand off-season [6] - Close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics, raw material price trends, and futures performance is recommended for future market outlooks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, the silicon ferrosilicon futures market rose after a surge but continued to lift its center of gravity. Rumors on Thursday drove a rapid rebound in the market, but local enterprises did not receive relevant news. Supply and demand data showed little fluctuation, with raw material costs expected to remain stable and manufacturer inventories slightly increasing after a halt in decline. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5400 - 5800 [4]. Manganese Silico - Manganese - Last week, the weekly supply of manganese silico - manganese increased while demand decreased, and the futures market slightly declined after a surge. The short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, but the overall manganese ore inventory is low, and the cost support has strengthened. The alloy trading idea is short - term long and long - term short, and the industry can consider hedging when the basis is repaired and the upper pressure level is reached. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5700 - 6000 [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.87 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 13.7% year - on - year). The output in June 2025 was 41.41 tons (down 0.18% month - on - month and 14.13% year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2.01 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - Manufacturer inventory was 7.02 tons (up 4.8% week - on - week and 22.8% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (up 0.18 days month - on - month and 0.83 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - Electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The prices of other raw materials such as semi - coke remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, and the profit increased [14]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract was 90 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,519 (up 8,242 week - on - week and 6,903 year - on - year) [17]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [19]. Manganese Silico - Manganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent manganese silico - manganese enterprises was 18.2 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week and down 18.2% year - on - year). The national output in June was 75.23 tons (up 1.3% month - on - month and down 19.1% year - on - year) [24]. Demand - The weekly consumption of manganese silico - manganese was 12.49 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 3.7% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [26]. Inventory - The sample enterprise inventory was 22.08 tons (down 0.67% week - on - week and up 51.4% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (up 0.34 days month - on - month and 0.42 days year - on - year) [29]. Cost - Manganese ore quotes were firm. Electricity prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the cost of manganese silico - manganese in various regions decreased slightly while the profit increased [36]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton, down 48 week - on - week. The number of manganese silico - manganese warehouse receipts was 85,037 (down 3,649 week - on - week and 43,238 year - on - year) [31]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [38].

上周五，硅铁2509合约收盘5460，下跌2.08%，现货端，宁夏硅铁现货报5330，上涨30元/吨。 （7月14日）全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | 报价 | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 新华实业 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏新华实业集团有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 中卫银河 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫县银河冶炼有限公 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | 司 | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 三元中泰 | 5220元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏三元中泰冶金有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 大有冶炼 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫市大有冶炼有限公 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | 司 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].