Core Viewpoint - The certification and inspection industry in Jiangsu is playing a crucial role in enhancing the province's new production capacity, developing a new economic structure, and ensuring social welfare through various initiatives and standards [1][5][6]. Group 1: Certification and Standards - Jiangsu has completed 50 key industrial chain quality maps and established 8 provincial quality inspection centers in strategic emerging industries [1]. - The province has developed 11 product carbon footprint accounting standards and issued 73 certification certificates covering 26 product categories [1][2]. - The certification of product carbon footprints is essential for industries like photovoltaics and batteries to meet international market demands and overcome green trade barriers [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The product carbon labeling certification faces challenges such as insufficient awareness, lack of incentive mechanisms, and the need for improved certification agency capabilities [2]. - A public service platform for product carbon footprint accounting and certification has been established to enhance procurement of carbon-labeled products [2]. - The Jiangsu Product Carbon Labeling Certification Technical Service Alliance has been formed to provide collaborative certification services, with 39 domestic and international certification agencies participating [2]. Group 3: Industry Support and Development - Jiangsu's market regulatory authority has implemented a "chain-based" support strategy to enhance industrial development, focusing on 16 advanced manufacturing clusters and 50 key industrial chains [4][5]. - The province has issued 3653 certificates to support 2800 enterprises, with a satisfaction rate exceeding 98% for assistance programs [5]. - The certification and inspection services have been integrated into Jiangsu's "1650" industrial system, promoting high-quality development and innovative living standards [5][6]. Group 4: Innovation and Economic Growth - The inspection and testing sector is seen as a vital support for emerging fields like low-altitude economy and advanced communications, driving innovation and growth [6]. - Jiangsu has established various alliances to address industry-specific challenges, such as the low-altitude industry inspection alliance and the advanced communication inspection alliance [6]. - The province's inspection and testing industry has shown robust growth, with 4099 institutions generating 33.84 million inspection reports annually and a revenue growth rate of 10.92% in emerging sectors [6]. Group 5: Future Directions - The provincial market regulatory authority aims to enhance the quality of certification and inspection services, integrating them with technological and industrial innovation chains [7]. - There is a commitment to advancing the internationalization of certification and inspection services, particularly in product carbon labeling [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's export performance, particularly focusing on the electronics and integrated circuits sectors, as well as the overall trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Exports**: U.S. tariffs have led to a significant decline in exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of approximately 35%. However, the impact has started to weaken following recent U.S.-China trade talks, leading to improvements in the unit prices of electromechanical products, which may help restore profitability [1][3][4] 2. **Strong Performance of Integrated Circuits**: China's integrated circuit exports have shown robust growth, outperforming other electronic trade economies like Vietnam and South Korea. This indicates strong demand for electronic products despite the challenging trade environment [1][7] 3. **Sensitivity of Consumer Goods Exports**: China's exports of consumer goods to the U.S. are highly sensitive to tariff changes, while intermediate goods have shown resilience due to prior experience with trade tensions and government support [4][5] 4. **Emerging Industries Resilience**: New advantage industries such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles have experienced growth in exports to the U.S. despite high tariffs, contrasting with declines in sensitive categories like solar products and food [5][8] 5. **Changes in Export Structure**: In May, the export structure of China was influenced by electromechanical products, cross-border e-commerce, and imitation shoes and bags. The demand for cross-border e-commerce has weakened, while new advantage industries like ships, integrated circuits, and automotive supply chains have shown strong external demand [1][6] 6. **Weakening Import Demand**: In May, China's import performance was negatively affected by a decline in demand for energy and mineral-related capital goods. The demand from ASEAN and African economies has also shown significant downturns, with the demand for integrated circuits from Taiwan being a key support factor [9][10] 7. **Global Manufacturing Stability**: Recent signals of tariff easing and stabilization in global manufacturing PMI have alleviated some external demand pressures. The improvement in the new export orders PMI for China indicates a potential recovery in external demand [2][12] 8. **Future Challenges for External Demand**: Looking ahead, external demand may face downward pressure, particularly due to the front-loading of demand from export and re-export activities. The government may focus on foreign affairs to mitigate these pressures, with potential incremental policies being deployed in the latter half of the year [12][13] Additional Important Insights - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the potential disruptions in the electronic supply chain and the overall trade environment as global economic conditions evolve [7][12] - The resilience of new advantage industries suggests a shift in China's export strategy, adapting to the complexities of international trade dynamics [8][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of price control as a critical competitive advantage for brands in the integrated e-commerce and traditional retail market [2] - Establishing a scientific price management system is fundamental for effective price control, considering factors like product development costs, market positioning, competitor pricing, and consumer price sensitivity [5] - Brands should implement a regular price monitoring mechanism on e-commerce platforms, utilizing both manual inspections and software to track pricing in real-time [6] Group 2 - Early-stage price management is strategically significant for long-term brand development, contrary to the belief that it is less important when sales volume is low [8] - A unified pricing system fosters market trust, as demonstrated by a startup skincare brand that achieved a 90% renewal rate among distributors in its first year through strict price control [9] - Failure to address pricing chaos early can lead to significantly higher costs later, with some brands spending over 2 million yuan to rectify pricing issues due to initial neglect [10] Group 3 - Brands must navigate legal boundaries regarding price control, as direct price restrictions may violate antitrust laws, yet effective management strategies can still be pursued within legal frameworks [11] - Utilizing compliant complaint channels, such as intellectual property protections, is essential for brands to achieve price control objectives [12] - Establishing flexible pricing guidance mechanisms, like sales rebates, can help brands encourage compliance among distributors while minimizing legal risks [13]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes the importance of month-on-month (MoM) price changes over year-on-year (YoY) changes, providing a clearer understanding of price differentiation trends in the current year [4][14]. CPI Analysis - Overall, the cumulative MoM increase in CPI for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024. However, the core CPI shows a cumulative MoM increase of 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.4% increase in the same period [5][15]. - In terms of categories, food prices have a cumulative MoM increase of -0.6% (compared to -1% in the past four years), rent at 0.1% (0% previously), and core goods at 0.9% (0.1% previously) are considered "strong." Conversely, energy prices at -2.3% (3.8% previously) and core services (excluding rent) at 0.5% (1.2% previously) are deemed "weak" [5][15]. - Detailed breakdowns show that within food, fresh fruits, beef, lamb, and pork prices are "strong" with declines of -7.4% and -16.4%, while grains, cooking oils, fresh vegetables, seafood, and dairy prices are "weak." In energy, water, electricity, and fuel prices are "weak" with a decline of -5.4% [6][16]. PPI Analysis - The cumulative MoM increase in PPI for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, which is weaker than the -0.5% increase during the same period last year [8][23]. - In terms of categories, clothing (0% this year vs. -0.2% last year) and general daily necessities (0.2% vs. 0.1%) are "strong," while mining (-8.7% vs. -1.2%), raw materials (-2.4% vs. 0.9%), and durable goods (-1.4% vs. -1.2%) are "weak" [8][23]. - Among 32 comparable industries, 10 show "strong" prices, mainly in downstream manufacturing and electric water industries. In mining, black metal extraction is "strong," while coal extraction and oil and gas extraction are "weak" [9][24]. May Inflation Data Review - CPI shows a slight decline both YoY and MoM, with food prices experiencing a small YoY drop and energy prices seeing a deeper YoY decline. Core CPI shows a slight YoY increase [29][39]. - The MoM CPI decreased by 0.2%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past five years. Food prices shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.2% decrease, while energy prices dropped by 1.7% [31][39]. - The core CPI reflects a 0.1% decrease in rent, which is lower than the 2015-2019 average, and a stable core goods price. Durable goods prices continue to decline, with transportation tools down by 0.4% [32][36]. Price Change Proportions - The proportion of CPI items with price increases has expanded, with the ratio rising from 24% to 29%, which is at the 11% percentile since 2016 [44]. - Conversely, the proportion of PPI industries with price increases has significantly narrowed, with the number of industries increasing prices dropping from 8 to 5, resulting in a decrease from 27% to 17% [46].

Core Viewpoint - The "Implementation Plan for Digital Transformation of the Food Industry" aims to guide the digital transformation and high-quality development of the food industry by 2027 and 2030, focusing on increasing digitalization and technological integration across various sectors of the industry [1][2] Group 1: Goals and Targets - By 2027, the digitalization rate of key enterprises' management is expected to reach 80%, with 75% of large-scale enterprises achieving numerical control in key processes and the use of digital R&D design tools [1] - The plan aims to cultivate over 10 smart factories, establish more than 5 high-standard digital parks, and create 100 typical application scenarios for digital transformation [1] - By 2030, the plan envisions comprehensive application of new-generation information technology in large-scale food enterprises, fostering internationally competitive digital industrial clusters in the food sector [1] Group 2: Key Tasks and Technologies - The plan emphasizes the collaboration of food enterprises, specialized service providers, and hardware/software companies to develop intelligent monitoring and traceability solutions using technologies like 5G, big data, cloud computing, and blockchain [2] - It encourages the application of artificial intelligence to enhance the supply of AI model products in specific food sectors and supports the use of virtual reality to enrich product presentation [2] - The plan highlights the need for upgrading key process equipment and software, promoting tailored strategies for enterprises, especially focusing on the modernization of outdated equipment in small and medium-sized enterprises [2]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-10 市场分析 国内核心CPI上涨。国内方面，国家统计局数据显示，5月份，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%， 降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。据海关统计，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。海外方面，纽约联储调查数据显示，5月美国消 费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期、 五年期通胀预期也均有下降。关注即将发布的美国通胀数据。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数涨0.43%收于3399.77点，创业板指涨1.07%。行业方面， 板块指数基本收红，医药生物、农林牧渔、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅食品饮料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额增 至1.3万亿元。海外市场，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行，带动芯片股上涨，美国三大股指收盘 涨跌 ...

Group 1 - Foreign companies are increasingly focusing on innovation as a key strategy for investment and operations in China, aiming to create a collaborative ecosystem for growth [2][3] - L'Oréal has been actively investing in innovation in China, including partnerships with local biotech firms and the establishment of investment funds for beauty brands [2] - The local market understanding allows foreign companies like Eppendorf to develop products tailored to Chinese needs, achieving nearly 90% localization in their offerings [3] Group 2 - Eppendorf is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in China, with a significant investment of 500 million RMB in the Xi'an factory, which will become its largest global production base [3] - Meiji is enhancing its local development and production efforts in China, aiming to launch new products that cater to the Chinese market first [4] - The Chinese government is supporting foreign investment in key sectors, with measures to encourage multinational companies to enhance their regional headquarters' capabilities [4][5] Group 3 - From January to April this year, there were 18,832 new foreign-invested enterprises established in China, reflecting a 12.1% year-on-year increase, indicating strong foreign confidence in the Chinese market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has seen a decline of 2.12% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.22 percentage points [2][14]. - Within the sector, soft drinks (+9.45%), snacks (+5.48%), and other alcoholic beverages (+4.98%) have shown the highest gains, while dairy products (-3.81%), liquor (-3.64%), and fermented seasoning products (-1.26%) have experienced the largest declines [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances include Junyao Health (+72.44%), Hainan Coconut Island (+20.26%), and Miaokelando (+19.95%) leading in gains, while Wufangzhai (-10.35%), ST Jiajia (-6.92%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (-5.41%) faced the largest losses [2][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage industry in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a year-to-date decline of 2.57% [14]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing resilience while liquor and dairy face challenges [2][14]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides pricing data for key products, such as the price of Feitian Moutai at 2,130 RMB for original boxes and 2,050 RMB for bulk, reflecting a decrease of 25 RMB and 50 RMB respectively over two weeks [3][29]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is reported at 3.06 RMB per kilogram, down 8.4% year-on-year [36]. Key Events Tracking - The report notes that the food manufacturing sector's profit increased by 1.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with total revenue reaching 713.58 billion RMB [4][55]. - Performance in the e-commerce space during the Tmall 618 event shows strong sales for brands like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store [4][55]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report suggests focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while also considering regional leaders with favorable competitive dynamics [10][56]. - In the broader consumer goods category, the report highlights the rising popularity of yellow wine and the seasonal uptick in beer consumption, alongside strong performance in snack foods and energy drinks [10][56].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][30] Core Viewpoints - The consumer goods sector is showing structural prosperity, with traditional consumption revitalizing [5] - The report highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and innovating in products, channels, and marketing to stimulate consumption potential [5] - Investment opportunities are seen in the snack and beverage sectors, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels [5] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.84% this week, with leading stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) showing positive performance [5] - Moutai has announced a buyback progress, reinforcing market confidence, with a total buyback of 5.1 billion yuan, accounting for 0.2635% of total shares [5] - Future expectations include a recovery in the consumption environment supported by policies, with recommendations for high-end and next-tier liquor brands [5] Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.34% this week, with stocks like *ST Chuntian (+15.38%) and Youyou Food (+9.57%) performing well [5] - The report indicates a structural prosperity in consumer goods, driven by generational differences in spending intentions and the emergence of new consumption categories that meet emotional and health needs [5] - Companies that effectively innovate based on consumer insights are likely to unlock consumption potential [5] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with recommendations for leading firms such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Group [29]