Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated March 12, 2026 [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, in corn, prices in Changchun remained stable, while in Weifang it increased by 10. The basis changed by -14, and trade profit decreased by 10. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained stable, and in Weifang increased by 20. The basis changed by -12, and processing profit increased by 13 [3] Core View - Short - term: For corn, post - Lantern Festival, trade activities resumed. Front - end supply is tight, and back - end consumption replenishment drives price up. It's driven by short - term supply - demand mismatch. For starch, raw material cost increase led to price increase. Post - festival production increased, and downstream replenishment supported inventory reduction [4] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes after seasonal peak [4] Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - From March 5 - 10, 2026, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming showed fluctuations. The basis and import profit also changed. The number of warehouse receipts had a small change [6] Core View - International: Fundamentals slightly strengthened. India cut 25/26 production estimate, and ISO cut global surplus estimate. Crude oil rise may boost raw sugar price [7] - Domestic: After the festival, there was discussion on import policy. The market was volatile and strong. Some processing plants had low out - of - quota import cost, but there was hedging pressure on the upper side of the market [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 220. The import profit and other data also had corresponding changes [8] Core View - Low initial inventory offset most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. New - season Xinjiang planting area may decrease, so cotton is suitable for long - term long position [8] Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the basis increased by 1 [10] Core View - The gap between culled chicken and white chicken prices widened, indicating slower culling. High - level chicken replenishment peaked in April 2025. Current slow culling may be active delay by farmers, post - poning supply pressure. Feed cost increase compressed egg - laying profit. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [10] Group 6: Apples Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable. National inventory decreased by 9, Shandong inventory increased by 67, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 10 [16][17] Core View - This week, apple sales in production areas varied. Western areas had better sales, with good - quality apple prices rising in Gansu. Shandong had average sales, with more low - price transactions. In the sales areas, post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased and sales slowed down [17] Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, pig prices in some regions decreased, and the basis increased by 10 [17] Core View - The weekend pig spot market adjusted weakly. Group supply was abundant, social pig farms resisted low prices, and consumption was weak. Capacity reduction was limited, there was inventory pressure in the off - season, and prices were under medium - term pressure. Pay attention to factors like farmers' selling weight, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage after price decline. Futures had a premium, and prices were easily affected by sentiment [17]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5] - Steel apparent consumption has improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8] - Steel social inventory continues to rise, with an increase of 8.3% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Petrochemical and Construction Industry - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has increased by 1.7% week-on-week and by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5% [12] - The operating rate of PTA has risen by 6.1% week-on-week and by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2.8% [12] - In contrast, the operating rate of polyester filament has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [12] - In the construction industry, cement production and demand are showing signs of recovery, with a grinding operating rate increasing by 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20] - Cement shipment rates have decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6% [20] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased year-on-year to 9.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9% respectively [43] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and highway freight vehicle traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [54] - Port cargo throughput has also increased year-on-year by 23.4 percentage points to 25.5% [54] Group 4: Price Trends in Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed trend, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices have increased by 1.1% [94] - The industrial product price index has risen by 5.0% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 8.7% [107] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The CCFI composite index has increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant rises in Southeast Asia shipping rates by 6.8% [84] - The BDI shipping rate has decreased by 6.1% [84]

Export Performance - In the first two months of 2026, China's exports grew by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 7.3%[3] - The total export value reached $656.58 billion, well above the average of $550 billion in the same period over the past five years[3] - Key factors for the strong export performance include the late Lunar New Year, a rebound in global manufacturing PMI to 51.9, and the impact of RMB appreciation on export timing[3][4] Regional Export Growth - Exports to Africa surged by 49.9%, contributing 2.64 percentage points to overall export growth, with the share of exports to Africa increasing from 5% to 7%[4] - Exports to Hong Kong, ASEAN, and the EU grew by 38.7%, 29.4%, and 27.8% respectively, each significantly higher than the previous year's growth rates[4] - Exports to the US decreased by 11.0%, but the decline was less severe than in 2025, contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points to the overall export slowdown[4][16] Product Structure and Import Trends - Traditional labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with categories like bags and textiles growing by 18.4% and 20.5% respectively, contributing about 2.3 percentage points to export growth[5][19] - High-tech and electromechanical product exports continued to rise, with growth rates of 26.9% and 27.1%, contributing 6.6 and 16.2 percentage points to overall export growth[5][19] - Imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the expected 6.9%, driven by a recovery in domestic demand and price stabilization[7][22] Future Outlook and Risks - While the strong export performance in early 2026 is encouraging, a potential decline in March is anticipated due to high base effects and pre-shipment factors[8][24] - Key risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies, slower-than-expected global economic recovery, and geopolitical tensions affecting manufacturing demand[26]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures and the neutral - bearish MPOB report, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retraced from high levels. However, the unexpected increase in the first 10 - day export data limited the short - term decline. Domestically, it is expected to weaken further in the short term and may find support at the lower gap. In the long term, there is a risk of renewed weakness after repeated consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The prediction of the end of the Middle - East war by the US President and the proposed solution by Russia have alleviated concerns about long - term oil supply disruptions. CBOT soybean oil had a sharp rise before and now has a demand for a pull - back. Domestically, the supply is still sufficient, and if the futures price drops significantly, the basis quote may rise slightly [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by inflation, economic slowdown concerns, and the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, the crude oil price dropped, dragging down the rapeseed oil market. It followed the domestic vegetable oil sector to correct after a stagnant rise. Future focus should be on the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The basis quote of crude rapeseed oil is high due to tight supply, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose due to a weak dollar. The USDA report was slightly bearish, but its impact on cotton was limited. US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought in the main producing areas is expected to continue in the second quarter. Domestically, after the previous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, the import profit is currently small, but the strong demand from downstream spinning mills provides support. The total cotton production in the new year is expected to decline, and future attention should be paid to planting subsidies and sowing [3]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures declined due to the drop in oil prices. Czarnikow predicted a global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with a downward adjustment in production, mainly due to the reduction in India's output forecast. The market is gradually moving from surplus to shortage, and the short - term sugar price is expected to remain firm. Domestically, the domestic groups are strongly willing to support prices, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [5]. - **Red Dates**: The 25/26 production season has sufficient supply, and it is currently the off - season for consumption. The spot price has weakened, and the trading is light. The futures price is under pressure. The arrival of trucks in the markets is small, the consumption market is weak, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. Future focus should be on the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [6]. - **Apples**: With the cooling of market sentiment, the futures price has fallen from high levels. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the low inventory supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit inventory reduction, and weather changes [12]. - **Corn**: In the northeast, the remaining grain is gradually released, but the channel inventory is relatively low, and the price is stable. In the north - central region, the trading is active, and the price fluctuates. As the temperature rises, the grain sales may increase, putting pressure on the price. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are more willing to replenish inventory, while feed enterprises are more cautious. Wheat substitution is emerging. Overall, the corn demand is still supported, but the expected increase in supply and substitution limit the upward space, and the price will maintain a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Meal Products**: The March supply - demand report has limited impact on the market. US soybeans are trending upward, but it still needs fundamental changes to maintain strength. Domestically, the spot market for meal products is in a loose pattern. Although the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been declining, it is still at a relatively high level. The basis has declined. The market should pay attention to the phased arrival rhythm, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [17]. - **Pigs**: In March, the market supply pressure is large, with a large number of large pigs being slaughtered, and the slaughter weight is increasing. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement recovers slowly, suppressing the spot price. The market is currently focusing on second - round fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, and the overall motivation for second - round fattening is limited. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom - out [18]. - **Eggs**: On the supply side, the number of old hens available for culling is limited, and the culling intention is general. The number of newly - laying hens is also limited, and the inventory of laying hens remains stable at a high level. After the post - festival replenishment, the inventory in each link has decreased. On the demand side, the rising raw material prices have increased the breeding cost, and the farmers' willingness to support prices has increased. The low egg price has attracted traders to stock up, but the terminal demand is still weak. In the short term, the egg price will maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price in Guangdong was 9360 yuan/ton, down 398 yuan or 4.08% from the previous day; the futures price of P2605 was 9462 yuan/ton, down 258 yuan or 2.65%. The basis was - 102 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 368.42%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in May was 9969.5 yuan/ton, down 338.5 yuan or 3.28%, and the import profit was - 507 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan or 13.69% [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 3.85% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8444 yuan/ton, down 228 yuan or 2.63%. The basis was 306 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan or 28.50% [1]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan or 2.30% from the previous day; the futures price of OI2605 was 9713 yuan/ton, down 241 yuan or 2.42%. The basis was 467 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.21% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of cotton 2605 was 15320 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day; the price of cotton 2609 was 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20.00%. The main contract's open interest was 721679 lots, down 3.72%. The number of warehouse receipts was 11950, up 2.60%, and the effective forecast was 790, down 28.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16556 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16733 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; the FC Index M 1% was 12546 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The Asian inventory was 547.70 tons, down 5.4%; the industrial inventory was 89.40 tons, up 3.8%; the import volume was 17.79 tons, up 49.5%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey cloth inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit was - 2406.30 yuan/ton, down 3.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1661.00 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 113.83 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 110.61 billion US dollars, down 17.5% [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of sugar 2605 was 5409 yuan/ton, down 0.50%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5431 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The ICE raw sugar price was 14.62 cents/pound, up 3.76%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 69.23%. The main contract's open interest was 409684 lots, down 6.47%. The number of warehouse receipts was 15930, up 6.57%, and the effective forecast was 1120, down 50.53% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price was 5480 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Kunming spot price was 5325 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The Nanning basis was 71 yuan/ton, down 24.47%; the Kunming basis was - 84 yuan/ton, down 37.70%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 4164 yuan/ton, up 2.69%; the import price of Brazilian sugar (out of quota) was 5279 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 689.00 tons, down 8.05%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 270.00 tons, down 27.71%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 402.90 tons, down 16.36%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 39.10%, down 21.56%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 38.49%, down 22.13%. The national industrial inventory was 419.00 tons, up 11.50%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 247.84 tons, up 1.74%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 45.21 tons, up 17.46%. The sugar import volume was 58.00 tons, up 48.72% [5]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of red dates 2605 was 8985 yuan/ton, down 0.83%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9355 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 155 yuan/ton, up 8.82%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 2.63%. The open interest was 178293 lots, down 2.71%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4031, unchanged; the effective forecast was 48, down 42.17%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4079, down 0.85% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price was 9200 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the Cangzhou first - grade spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Cangzhou second - grade spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou super - grade and the main contract was - 385 yuan/ton, up 114.44%; the basis of Cangzhou first - grade and the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 187.50% [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 10303 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price of apple 2610 was 8647 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The spread was - 1525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1656 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The open interest was 134039 lots, down 5.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival of trucks at the Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 26, up 18.18%; at the Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 14, up 16.67%; at the Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 18, up 20.00%. The national cold - storage inventory was 527.53 tons, down 4.59%. The futures profit was - 1525 yuan/ton, down 6.35% [7]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of corn 2605 was 2381 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 160.00%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 23.81%. The open interest was 2055341 lots, down 2.19%. The number of warehouse receipts was 74613, up 1.04% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2420 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the market price at Shekou Port was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The import profit was 176 yuan/ton, up 1.16% [14]. Corn Starch - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of corn starch 2605 was 2706 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The basis was 185 yuan/ton, up 12.80%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, down 54.55%. The open interest was 347826 lots, down 0.11%. The number of warehouse receipts was 6710, down 44.13% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of corn starch was 2891 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The Weifang spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the Changchun spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The starch - corn 05 spread on the futures market was 325 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The Shandong starch profit was - 3 yuan/ton, up 25.00% [14]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: On March 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3200 yuan/ton, down 2.14%; the futures price of M2605 was 2973 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, down 17.45%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipment was 251 yuan/ton, up 10.6%. The number of warehouse receipts was 38493, down 0.4% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2580 yuan/ton, down 4.09%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2402 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis was 178 yuan/ton, down 30.74%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipment was - 84 yuan/ton, down 47.37%. The number of warehouse receipts was 2311, up 63.78% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 44

Export Growth - China's exports in January-February 2026 increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 6.6%[10] - Imports also grew by 5.7%, consistent with the previous value of 5.7%[10] - The total trade surplus for January-February reached $213.62 billion, with a rebound in trade surplus growth[10] Regional Analysis - Exports to the U.S. saw a recovery with a growth rate of -11.0%, up from -30.0%[18] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 29.4%, compared to the previous 11.1%[18] - Exports to Latin America rose by 16.4%, up from 9.8%[18] Product Structure - Consumer goods exports, excluding consumer electronics, showed significant recovery, while electromechanical exports remained strong[25] - The export of capital goods continues to be robust, indicating a stable demand in this sector[25] Future Outlook - The report highlights two major divergences in exports: quantity-price divergence and divergence between RMB and USD denominated exports[28] - The short-term forecast indicates a significant drop in March's dollar-denominated export growth due to high base effects, with the extent of the decline being a key point of discussion[30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short term, the supply in the front - end trading link is tight, and the concentrated release of replenishment demand in the consumer end drives the price up. The current price fluctuation is dominated by short - term supply - demand mismatch. In the long term, pay attention to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - **Starch**: This week, the increase in raw material costs drives up the starch price. In the short term, both supply and demand are recovering. In the long term, focus on the downstream consumption rhythm and whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's production cut and ISO's reduction of the global surplus forecast. Crude oil price increase may boost the raw sugar price. Domestically, the market is discussing import policies, with low additional - quota import costs and high spot pressure [6]. - **Cotton**: The low initial inventory offsets most of the output increase. With expanding domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The reduction of Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. - **Eggs**: The slowdown of chicken culling may be an active decision by farmers, which postpones the supply pressure. Rising feed costs compress the profit margin. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **Apples**: The shipping situation in apple - producing areas varies, with the west stronger than the east. In the west, the price of high - quality goods rises, while in the east, the overall shipment is average. The sales in the sales area are stable after the festival, but the arrival volume is low and the shipping slows down [11]. - **Pigs**: The spot market is weakly adjusted. Group supply is abundant, consumption is weak, and capacity reduction is limited. Pay attention to factors such as the change of farmers' selling weight, the expectation of second - fattening, and frozen product storage [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while in other regions, there were slight changes. The basis of corn increased by 14, and the import profit increased by 28. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang increased by 50, and the basis increased by 50, and the processing profit increased by 17 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and long - term focus is on policies. For starch, short - term supply and demand are both recovering, and long - term focus is on downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 90, 80, and 50 respectively. The basis decreased by 63, and the import profit decreased [5]. - **Analysis**: International fundamentals are stronger, and domestic market is affected by import policy discussions, with high spot pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5. The import profit and other data also had certain changes [7]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the egg prices in some regions increased slightly, the basis increased by 105, and the prices of substitutes had some changes [9]. - **Analysis**: Slow chicken culling postpones supply pressure, and a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: The spot prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general goods remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 22, and the inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased [10][11]. - **Analysis**: Shipping situation varies between the east and the west, and the sales in the sales area are stable but slow [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 20 [11]. - **Analysis**: Spot market is weakly adjusted, and pay attention to factors affecting the price rhythm [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil, but with low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound, so consider buying on dips [5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated due to crude oil. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase, so maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. - For protein meal, affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils and fats, short - term prices rose due to geopolitical crisis. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. - For pigs, considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, and Suke敦 was the only buyer [4]. - ISMA predicted India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season to be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the second prediction and a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons [4]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets estimated Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. Sugar - making ratio was 48.6%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - As of March 4, 2026, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 609,000 tons of sugarcane, producing 5,000 tons of sugar, with a sugar - making ratio of 6.63% [4]. - ISO predicted the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous prediction [4]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng sugar prices rose and then fell. With low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil, don't be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound. Consider buying on dips [5]. Cotton Market Information - ICAC predicted a 4% decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - From February 26 to March 5, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Exports to China were 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [6]. - As of March 6, 2026, the spinning mill operation rate was 73.2%, an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [6]. - In January 2026, the predicted global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [8]. - In January 2026, the predicted US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December prediction. The export estimate remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction [8]. - Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng cotton prices rose and then fell. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - In February 2026, China's soybean imports were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - StoneX estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - From February 19 to February 26, 2026, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. Exports to China were 150,000 tons, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [11]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from the December prediction and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December prediction and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, the same as the December prediction and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. The US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons from the December prediction [11]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats Market Information - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - 2026 [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons. Exports were 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons. Inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 622,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 182,000 tons and 171,000 tons respectively from the previous month [14]. - As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons [14]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis, short - term oil prices rose. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.03 yuan to 3.06 yuan per catty. Supply was okay, downstream digestion was average, and some had a rational wait - and - see attitude. It's expected that today's egg price may be mostly stable with some narrow adjustments [17]. Strategy - Production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices were up, down, or stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 10.31 yuan per kilogram, in Sichuan increased by 0.04 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and in Guangxi remained at 10.02 yuan per kilogram. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was okay, there was still pressure to digest large pigs, and the demand for standard pigs was slightly supported by secondary fattening and frozen product storage. It's expected that today's national pig price may be stable in some areas and continue to decline slightly in others [20]. Strategy - Considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic indicators, suggesting that it may boost January-February data while suppressing March figures, leading to significant fluctuations in economic performance metrics [122][124]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows signs of weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5]. - Steel apparent consumption improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8]. - The operating rate of the petrochemical chain, particularly for soda ash and PTA, saw a notable recovery, with soda ash operating rates up 1.7% week-on-week and PTA rates up 6.1% [12][14]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in production, with a grinding operating rate up 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20][21]. - Cement shipment rates decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6%, while the cement inventory ratio fell by 1.8% week-on-week [20][25]. - The average price of cement continued to decline, decreasing by 1.5% week-on-week [30]. Group 3: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing in major cities has decreased, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities falling to 9.7% year-on-year [43][46]. - Port cargo throughput and freight volumes related to domestic demand have increased, with railway freight volume up 2.1% year-on-year and highway truck traffic up 20.2% [54][56]. - The number of moviegoers and box office revenue has declined significantly, with movie attendance down 35.4% year-on-year [72][74]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed trends, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.1% [94][102]. - The industrial price index has risen, with the Nanhua industrial price index increasing by 5.0% week-on-week, driven by an 8.7% rise in the energy and chemical price index [107][111].