新华财经纽约12月16日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价16日全线下跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.37美元，比前一交易日 下跌3.25美分，跌幅为0.74%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.1美元，比前一交易日下跌11.25美 分，跌幅为2.16%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳10.63美元，比前一交易日下跌9美分，跌幅为 0.84%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 如果阿根廷和巴西南部1月份没有出现持续干旱和高温天气，农产品市场长期风险依然看跌。预计12月 剩余时间农产品市场交易将波动加剧。随着南美洲天气溢价释放和现货市场得到补充，3月份芝加哥期 货交易所（CBOT）大豆期价有望再次测试每盎司10.30美元至10.40美元，3月份玉米期价有望再次测试 每盎司4.25美元至4.30美元。目前推动市场持续复苏所需的动力仍然不足。 宏观经济疲软波及农产品市场；阿根廷降雨量预测摇摆不定，当日避险情绪主导各类市场。美国11月非 农录得6.4万人，失业率为四年来新高，令股市和能源市场承压，WTI原油现货价格午盘触及7个月新 低，报每桶55.45 ...

红枣期货日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【 2011】1292号 Z0023598 王昌 2025年12月17日 红支 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 8830 红枣2601 8975 -145 -1.62% 红枣2605 (主力合约) 8965 9025 -60 -0.66% 红枣2609 9280 9335 -55 -0.59% 红枣1-5价差 -135 -50 -85 170.00% 红枣5-9价差 -315 -310 -5 1.61% 元/吨 沧州特级现货价格 9670 9760 -90 -0.92% 8600 8600 0 沧州一级现货价格 0.00% 沧州二级现货价格 7200 7200 0 0.00% 沧州特级与主力合约基差 105 135 -30 -22.22% 835 ୧୦ 沧州一级与主力合约基差 775 7.74% -3335 持仓量 172838 176173 -1.89% 手 883 883 0 仓車 0.00% 1134 有效预报 769 365 47.46% 张 仓单+有效预报 2017 1652 365 22.09% 沧州现货基差走势 3000 2000 1000 IF -10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a state of oscillatory operation due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, high oil - mill operating rates, continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and the lack of sudden news stimuli after policy stabilization. Attention should be paid to the import situation of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the supply in the domestic market is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The market situation also needs to focus on the new - season corn acquisition situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2570 yuan/ton [1] - **Corn and Corn Starch** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.44% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - **Soybean** - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 79.6 tons, lower than the market forecast of 100 - 125 tons [2] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [2] - Brazil exported 165 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 16.5 tons, a 73% increase from the daily average export volume in December 2024 [2] - **Corn** - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 158.3 tons, within the market forecast range of 100 - 160 tons [4] - Brazil exported 290.9 tons of corn in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 29.1 tons, a significant increase compared to December 2024 [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal** - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean meal price is mainly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [3] - **Corn** - In the domestic market, the supply is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The new - season corn acquisition situation needs attention [6] 3.4 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]

豆粕：南美天气展望改善 短线偏弱 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2777 | 2758 | 19 | 0. 69% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3154. 57 | 3154. 29 | 0. 28 | 0. 01% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3060 | 40 | 1. 31% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2228. 75 | 2236. 25 | -7.5 | -0. 34% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | ...

红枣期货日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【 2011】1292号 Z0023598 王昌 2025年12月17日 红支 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 8830 红枣2601 8975 -145 -1.62% 红枣2605 (主力合约) 8965 9025 -60 -0.66% 红枣2609 9280 9335 -55 -0.59% 红枣1-5价差 -135 -50 -85 170.00% 红枣5-9价差 -315 -310 -5 1.61% 元/吨 沧州特级现货价格 9670 9760 -90 -0.92% 8600 8600 0 沧州一级现货价格 0.00% 沧州二级现货价格 7200 7200 0 0.00% 沧州特级与主力合约基差 105 135 -30 -22.22% 835 ୧୦ 沧州一级与主力合约基差 775 7.74% -3335 持仓量 172838 176173 -1.89% 手 883 883 0 仓車 0.00% 1134 有效预报 769 365 47.46% 张 仓单+有效预报 2017 1652 365 22.09% 沧州现货基差走势 3000 2000 1000 IF -10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural products including pulp, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, live pigs, natural and synthetic rubbers, cotton, sugar, double gum paper, and logs, providing insights into their market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks [1][5][6][7][8][11][12][15][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - **View**: Futures fluctuate while spot prices continue to decline. The market has more positive factors, which will push up the bottom of futures price movements. It is expected that the low on December 1st will not be broken again. The upper pressure comes from weak demand, and the 05 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the 5650 - 5750 area [1][15]. - **Logic**: Positive drivers include rising US dollar - denominated prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential for other mills to cut production, and relatively high actual demand. Negative factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain weak [1][15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate and rise. Positive news raises the bottom, but the upper hedging pressure remains unchanged [2][15]. Oils and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment is still weak. Pay attention to whether the lower level can provide technical support. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as the overall selling in the agricultural product market, concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, high domestic soybean inventory, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate weakly. The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and the current sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [5]. Protein Meals - **View**: The premium of state - reserve auctions has narrowed, and the two meals are oscillating at a low level [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is almost complete, and Argentina is accelerating the sale of new crops. US soybean is expected to oscillate. Domestically, short - term state - reserve soybean auction results, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybean meal, medium - term purchase progress, uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, and long - term South American weather all affect the market [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [6]. Corn/Starch - **View**: After the snow and rain, the supply in the production area continues to increase [7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are weakening steadily. Affected by news of regulatory reserve auctions and high - level resistance on the futures market, the market sentiment has turned, and the supply in the market has increased. It is expected that prices will first fall and then rise before the Spring Festival, and it is unlikely to break the previous low [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Short - term observation is recommended [7]. Live Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and pig prices are oscillating within a narrow range [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs from second - fattening is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand may increase after the snowfall, and the average slaughter weight has declined. The industry is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. In the near - term, prices are expected to be weak. In the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [8]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain a wide - range intraday oscillation [8]. - **Logic**: Currently, it is in a stage without a strong driver. Although the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts and the overall commodity rebound, it mostly falls back within the day. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is a risk of decline. The demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation without strong expectations or macro - level drive [8][9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to limited fundamental variables, the price is expected to continue to oscillate, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based unilateral market [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The positive sentiment in the market is maintained [11]. - **Logic**: The BR futures market is oscillating strongly, and its position is increasing. It is mainly due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price is oscillating, and the demand side has certain support. Although there is an expectation of import arrivals, the current good trading situation supports the market [11]. - **Outlook**: Temporarily treat the market as oscillating strongly, but the sustainability of the upward trend is questionable [11]. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices have slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability [12]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory is increasing, but the inventory accumulation speed is lower than expected, indicating good consumption. The market is concerned about the potential reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, which has pushed up the price in the short term. However, the actual upward - driving force of the fundamentals is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the decline of sugar prices has widened [12]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar supply is expected to change from tight to loose in the 25/26 crushing season. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. The production of Brazilian sugar has passed its peak, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. With the increase in supply, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [12][14]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season [12][14]. Double Gum Paper - **View**: Publishers'提货 continues, and the inventory pressure on paper enterprises has been alleviated [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, the publication orders have started to be picked up, which has alleviated the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises. However, the social demand has not improved significantly, and distributors mainly maintain stable prices. The market is facing factors such as stable prices of large - scale paper enterprises, rational stocking by distributors, different trends of different types of double - gum paper, and the divergence between pulp and paper prices. In the future, the supply pressure still exists, and paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand through price cuts or production cuts [16]. - **Outlook**: Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, but the medium - term demand is expected to be weak. The price of double - gum paper will run weakly and stably [16][17]. Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the market rebounds with reduced positions [19]. - **Logic**: The spot price has weakened, which has affected the market sentiment. However, the near - month contract has reached a low - valuation area and has certain support. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the domestic demand is weak. The 01 contract has a certain profit in buying for delivery, and the 03 contract has more game points. Considering the low overall valuation, hold the 1 - 3 reverse spread and pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 03 contract at a low price [19]. - **Outlook**: The loose pattern of the log market continues. The near - month contract lacks game value. Pay attention to the reverse spread or the opportunity of buying the far - month contract at a low price [19].

农产品早报 2025-12-17 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周二国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交低迷、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 1.10%, closing at 29.0113 points, indicating a downward trend in grain prices [1] Grain Market Summary - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.85%, settling at $4.36 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 2.10%, closing at $5.09 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.83%, ending at $10.7225 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures slightly declined by 0.05%, while soybean oil futures saw a more significant drop of 2.05% [1] Livestock Market Summary - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 0.95% [1] - Live cattle futures rose by 0.17% [1] - Feeder cattle futures gained 0.81% [1]

今天郑棉有所回调,本周的上涨主要受到传言的犹动。棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅 度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持 稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨，环比增加175.3万吨，同 比增加1万吨。截至12月11号，国内棉花累积加工量为579.4万吨，同比增加83.6万吨。纺企对于原料需求仍存 韧性,纺企成品库存不高,下游纺企现金流尚可。近期郑棉表现震荡偏强,产业可以关注套保机会,操作上多 单谨慎持有。 【白糖】 隔夜美糖弱势运行。巴西方面，11月上半月巴西中南部的生产数据偏中性。甘蔗压榨量有所增加，制糖比例同比下降，产糖量 同比继续增加。本榨季的生产已经进入尾声，累积产糖量维持高位。印度方面，今年生产进度较快，产量同比增加。国内方 面,郑糖增仓下跌。生产方面,11月广西生产进度偏慢，产糖量同比减少,关注后续生产情况。从产量预期来看,三季度广西 降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，广西甘蔗植被指数同比有所增加。25/26榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较 好,关注后续生产情况。综合 ...

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]