Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic soybean meal futures prices have been significant, with the 2601 contract dropping from 3190 yuan/ton to 3030 yuan/ton due to market expectations of potential U.S. soybean purchases by China, followed by a stabilization around 3040 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, where domestic supply and demand are loose, but there are expectations of a supply gap in the fourth quarter [1] - Brazilian soybean price differentials have increased, raising import costs for China by approximately 40 yuan/ton, leading to a re-evaluation of soybean meal pricing [2] - China's soybean imports from the U.S. increased by 31.2% year-on-year from January to July, indicating proactive stocking by oil mills in anticipation of potential shortages [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean meal supply remains generally sufficient, with high import volumes and oil mill operating rates, but there is still a projected supply gap in the fourth quarter [2][3] - Current spot prices for soybean meal are stable around 3000 yuan/ton, with effective basis adjustments mitigating futures price volatility [3] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. soybean yield and potential procurement agreements between China and the U.S., as these factors directly influence global soybean supply [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the U.S. soybean cannot enter the Chinese market, the fourth quarter procurement gap could support soybean meal futures prices, particularly for later contracts [3] - The soybean meal market has not experienced a significant bull market due to abundant production, but global trade tensions have led to relatively strong performance within the agricultural sector [4] - Strategies suggest taking long positions on soybean meal at lower prices, while recommending arbitrage operations between soybean meal and other meal types due to differing supply dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on September 4, with raw sugar futures declining by 2.06% to 15.70 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased slightly by 0.02% to 66.22 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 3.36% to $7,411.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures saw a minor rise of 0.13% to 374.15 cents per pound [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market is neutral [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - In the domestic bean meal market, the current inventory continues to increase, and future soybean arrivals are expected to remain high, so the supply is relatively loose. The decline in import costs has led to a corresponding drop in domestic bean meal prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policy negotiations [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase as new grains in North China and Northeast China are approaching the listing time. The demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is weak, and more attention should be paid to the output of new - season corn [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.84%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3060 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - US market information: As of August 31, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 65%, lower than the expected 68%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons. The US soybean crush in July 2025 was 204.7 million bushels [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2193 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US market information: As of August 31, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Bean meal: The current domestic bean meal inventory is increasing, and future soybean arrivals are high, so the supply is loose. The decline in import costs has affected the price, and Sino - US trade policy is a key factor [3] - Corn: The supply is expected to increase as new grains are about to be listed. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak, and the output of new - season corn is crucial [5] 4. Strategies - Bean meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to maintain a long - term bullish outlook, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips. The double - meal market has shown a bottoming trend, and new long positions can be considered [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On September 3, the vegetable oil sector was weak due to the decline in palm oil. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends in terms of price and position changes. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8366 yuan/ton, up 0.12% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5540 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On September 3, NYMEX crude oil futures fell more than 2%, and the OPEC oil - producing alliance was expected to consider raising the oil production target again in October. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to be 1.86 million tons, exports were 1.45 million tons, and inventory was estimated to be 2.2 million tons, a significant increase from the end - July inventory. Canada's estimated rapeseed production was 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate. The SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. The SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in August increased by 30.5% compared with July. As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China increased by 4.22% week - on - week and 19.10% year - on - year [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of September 3, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8610 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9400 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [2] 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the weak demand outlook for US soybeans pressured US soybean oil, and the expected increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August and the Indonesian President's attendance at the event led to high - level oscillations in Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, except for the increase in soybean oil inventory, rapeseed oil destocking accelerated, and palm oil inventory accumulated slowly. With the approaching of the fall semester and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand increased. It was expected that the soybean oil inventory in factories would soon reach its peak and then gradually decrease, and the spot basis of soybean oil and palm oil would strengthen [2] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Unilaterally, the medium - to - long - term outlook for oils is bullish. Existing long positions should be held, and a strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On September 3, the arbitrage strategy of selling oil and buying meal was switched, and the double - meal market closed higher. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends in terms of price and position changes. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10640 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - In July 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 205 million bushels, a 4.1% increase month - on - month and a 6.2% increase year - on - year, but lower than analysts' expectations. As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than market expectations. As of August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August were 8.9 million tons, and estimated soybean meal exports were 233,000 tons. As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China increased by 359,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory of domestic soybean meal increased by 16,000 tons [2][3] 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of September 2, the spot price of soybean meal was 3068 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2532 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton month - on - month. The crushing margins of US and Brazilian soybeans in October were negative, and the arrival costs of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins were provided [3] 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, the lack of Chinese purchasing intention pressured US soybeans to fall. Domestically, the spot market was weak due to light trading at the beginning of the month. The impact of domestic imported soybean auctions on the spot market was limited. The procurement of imported soybeans in October was nearly completed, but the procurement progress for November - January was less than 20%. The pre - sale of Australian rapeseed meal by COFCO and the market rumors about the approval of Australian rapeseed genetic certificates, although untrue, were expected to become a reality over time [3] 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - Unilaterally, the double - meal market is expected to rise in the medium term, and new long positions can be established. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of soybean meal from March to May [3]

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | 8 - 12 RITA | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月4日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | | 田温 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月3日 | 9月2日 | 演失 | 张跃幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8640 | 8570 | 70 | 0.82% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8454 | 8422 | 32 | 0.38% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 186 | 148 | 38 | 25.68% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏9月 | 01+220 | 01+220 | 0 | 7 | | 仓单 | | | 15060 | 15760 | -700 | -4.44% | | 棕櫚溫 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月3日 | 9月2日 | 张跃 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 9400 | 9330 | 70 | 0.75% ...

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on the 3rd, with December corn contracts closing at $4.18 per bushel, down 5 cents (1.18%), December wheat at $5.22 per bushel, down 6.25 cents (1.18%), and November soybeans at $10.32 per bushel, down 9.5 cents (0.91%) [1] - The drop in soybean prices is attributed to a lack of demand from China, leading to a bearish sentiment in the Chicago futures market for agricultural products, with potential losses of 14-16 million tons in Chinese import demand if the US-China trade agreement is not reached by mid-November [1] - Key moving averages indicate that December corn's 50-day moving average is at $4.145, while November soybeans have a 100-day moving average at $10.2975 and a 50-day moving average at $10.235, with wheat prices significantly below their moving averages [1] Group 2 - Importers and end-users are reluctant to chase higher prices in the Chicago futures market, with China continuing to purchase Brazilian soybeans and sellers from Brazil and Argentina becoming more aggressive [2] - The USDA has revised down the forecast for US farm net cash income for 2025 by $13 billion to $180.7 billion, indicating a potential impact on the agricultural sector [2] - Weather forecasts suggest mild temperatures for the next 8-9 days, with a low risk of early frost before September 17, which may affect crop conditions in the Midwest [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed lower across the board on September 3, with significant declines in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1][2] Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 0.89%, closing at 1031.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures decreased by 1.12%, ending at 418.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures dropped by 1.14%, closing at 522.25 cents per bushel [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The domestic soybean meal futures market has rebounded slightly due to cost - side support, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal market has shown average performance, with limited price decline space. The price of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to have limited up - and - down space in the near term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Market**: On September 3, 2025, the US soybean futures rebounded slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures continued to rebound. Rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend after earlier weakness [4]. - **Price Differences**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 5 to 245, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 9 to 115. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 16 to 380 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is clearly bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5]. - **South American Soybeans**: The old - crop supply in South America is relatively loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal is obvious, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient supply. As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.18%. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis The negotiation between China and the US in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, the short - term soybean price is not likely to drop significantly due to China's high demand for US soybeans [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis The domestic soybean meal futures have rebounded slightly under cost - side support, but the rebound space is limited. The market lacks clear directional guidance and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal price is not likely to drop deeply, and the monthly spreads have support at the bottom [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. - **Options**: Buy call options [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term as the supply is still limited while the downstream demand remains weak. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of domestic peanuts in some regions is weak. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are also stable recently [5][7][8]. - The new - season peanut production is expected to increase, and the planting cost is expected to decline. The 11 - contract peanut price is in a bottom - oscillating state, and it will continue to oscillate narrowly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7880, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 7 (down 75.00%) and an open interest of 407 (up 0.74%); PK510 closed at 7972, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 7,737 (down 24.29%) and an open interest of 37,099 (down 7.54%); PK601 closed at 7852, up 4 (0.05%), with a trading volume of 4,009 (down 56.47%) and an open interest of 33,323 (up 1.02%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the peanut spot market, the price in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast remained stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined new peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price before the suspension ranging from 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of 8050 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil and peanut oil remained stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [3][5]. - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 3000 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spread**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 28 (down 6), the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 92 (up 8), and the PK10 - PK01 spread was 120 (down 2) [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 3.9 yuan/jin, and that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.0 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.35 - 4.45 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Shandong, the price in Junan was 4.05 yuan/jin, remaining stable [5]. - The price of peanut oil was stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - For the single - side trading, the 11 - contract peanut price is in a low - level oscillation. It is advisable to wait and see, and those who want to bottom - fish can try the 05 - contract peanut [9]. - For the spread trading, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For the option trading, it is recommended to sell and hold the pk511 - C - 8200 option [11]. Fourth Part: Related Charts - The report provides six charts, including the price of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][19][22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The significant decline in the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on the soybean meal market [1]. - The soybean No.1 market shows a rebound and oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the overall atmosphere of the soybean market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3970 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.23%), and 3968 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and 3056 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1040 cents/bushel, down 13 cents (-1.23%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.3 dollars/short ton, down 5.4 dollars (-1.87%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 40/+50/+80, with some adjustments compared to the previous day; in East China, it is relatively stable; in South China, there are also various basis levels and adjustments [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.45 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.4 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 101.49 million tons per week, compared with 98.55 million tons two weeks ago [1]. Macro and Industry News - On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting the lowest level in a week and a half. The reasons include China's lack of interest in US new-season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest, which is beneficial for the growth of late-sown crops [3]. - The US - China trade negotiation has made limited progress recently, and China's hosting of a non - Western leaders' summit has further dampened the optimistic sentiment for the demand of new - crop soybeans [3]. - The increased rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may improve the growth of late - stage crops and strengthen the expectation of a bumper harvest, putting downward pressure on soybean prices [3]. - As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, down from 69% a week ago and the same as last year's 65%. Analysts had expected 68% before the report [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is +1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the report day [3].