1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2610. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - alkali profits on industry operation and the 2450 support and 2610 pressure levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2529 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures holding volume is 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 11,909 lots, down 1091 lots; the futures trading volume is 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2606 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 150 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3] 3.7 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - On the supply side, some devices were shut down last week, and some were restarted, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a device in Southwest China is planned to shut down, and a device in Northwest China will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to change little. On the demand side, the alumina industry has good profits, and the operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has remained stable. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons last week [3]

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[1] - Automotive retail sales have slightly declined, while wholesale volumes have increased, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts on consumption[9] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline, particularly affecting premium products like Moutai liquor[9] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the second-highest issuance pace since 2022, with July alone contributing CNY 616.94 billion[17] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in average transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[17] Price and Production Dynamics - Consumer prices are on a downward trend, with industrial prices also showing marginal declines, leading to a cooling of price increase expectations[36] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a slight decrease, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1% week-on-week, reflecting a shift in market supply and demand expectations[36] Import and Export Activity - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous week, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[21] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points and DR007 down by 22.8 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[39] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen by 2.7 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressures in the funding market[39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upper - space of caustic soda is limited, and there is pressure at the 2800 price level. The recent supply - demand remains loose. With the return of previously overhauled devices, supply pressure persists, and downstream demand remains dull with no obvious positive factors. The market mainly weighs the possible negative feedback on the operating rate caused by the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the potential impact of domestic exports. Considering the approaching delivery of the near - end contract, the upper - space of the near - end is expected to be limited without obvious event shocks [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, domestic caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising from a low level and strengthening with fluctuations. Taking the main contract SE2509 as an example, it rebounded from the June low of 2207 yuan/ton to the intra - cycle high of 2757 yuan/ton, with a rise of 28.23%. The strong performance of caustic soda futures in the cycle was related to the near - end spot pattern and July policy expectations. The near - end spot strengthened as the previous pessimistic expectations were gradually corrected. The market's discussion on the comprehensive profit, inventory, and possible production cuts of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises heated up due to the rapid decline in the price of associated liquid chlorine. Upstream enterprises raised the price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream alumina enterprises also increased their procurement prices. In addition, the "anti - involution" series of policies in July boosted the commodity sentiment, and the caustic soda market showed an upward trend [15]. 2. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan are presented, with specific price data and trends shown in the figures [18][22]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices in regions like Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia are provided, along with their price trends [24]. - **99% flake caustic soda**: The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are given, and the price trends are also shown [25]. 3. Price Spreads - **Model price spreads**: The price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong, are analyzed, with specific data and trends presented [33]. - **Regional price spreads**: The price spreads of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda between different regions are studied, including the spreads between Zhejiang - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong, etc., and the corresponding data and trends are shown [33][34]. 4. Supply Side - **Overall supply situation**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production capacity in Southwest, South, and Northeast China is relatively low. In June, the domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.5122 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. In July, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6178 million tons, with an expected month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in July was 58.01%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% compared to June (83.01%) [50]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented, along with their trends [51]. - **Overhaul situation**: A list of chlor - alkali device overhauls is provided, including long - term shutdown capacities and overhauls in July. Some enterprises have completed overhauls and resumed production, while others have planned overhauls in August and September [57]. - **Flake caustic soda device operation**: The operating conditions of flake caustic soda devices of various manufacturers are described, including overhauls, normal operations, and planned overhauls [61]. 5. Import and Export - In June 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 48,011 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 113.00%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 181,468 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.03%. Exports of liquid caustic soda were 291,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.31% and a month - on - month increase of 13.70%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.7255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. Imports of solid caustic soda were 862.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.67%. Exports of solid caustic soda were 59,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.32% and a year - on - year increase of 79.82% [65][68]. 6. Demand Side - **Alumina demand**: In July, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises was at a relatively high level. Although the supply - demand fundamentals had a certain negative impact on prices, the procurement demand from some downstream enterprises in the southern region and the short - term overhauls of some calcination devices in some enterprises led to a tight supply of spot goods in some areas, driving up the alumina price. The alumina market was also affected by macro - policies, but the actual impact on existing capacities was limited [73]. - **Viscose staple fiber demand**: In July, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was stable with fluctuations. The average monthly price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, a decline of 0.63%. The cost side weakened as the prices of raw materials decreased. The industry's supply increased as some previously shut - down or reduced - production devices resumed production. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand increased slightly, resulting in more stable quotes from manufacturers and an increase in the number of signed contracts [74]. 7. Inventory - In July, the overall inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories maintained a high - level oscillation, while the inventory of flake caustic soda continued to decline. There were differences among different manufacturers in Shandong. Enterprises with low inventory pressure had a strong willingness to raise prices, while those with moderate inventory adjusted prices according to market conditions. As of August 1, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 266,300 tons, basically unchanged compared to June 27, 2025 (266,600 tons). The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 19,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.49% compared to May 2, 2025 [97]. 8. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires 1.51 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12% - 18% of the total cost, and the power consumption per ton is about 2300 - 2400 kWh, accounting for about 60% of the total cost. In July, the cost side weakened, while the spot price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali showed a recovery [103]. 9. Chlorine - consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the PVC benchmark spot price, PVC powder weekly operating rate, and the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method in the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also shows the production capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as epoxy propane, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [115]. 10. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides data on the total production, cumulative production, export volume, net export volume, cumulative net export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative apparent consumption, consumption, cumulative consumption, and inventory changes of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, along with their year - on - year growth rates [142].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities released a report indicating that the A-share market is entering a period of increased volatility due to key domestic and international events, with a focus on sectors that show potential for rebound and sustained performance [1] Market Analysis - The market experienced a contraction in trading volume due to fluctuations in the US dollar index and policy expectations, but the selling pressure is considered manageable [1] - The current profit-making effect has reverted to levels seen in mid-July, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors identified for rebound potential include AI, capacity clearance, and self-controllable technologies, which are expected to show continuous improvement in performance [1] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with high dividend yield and potential for recovery, such as white goods, storage chips, optical fiber cables, chlor-alkali, aviation equipment, intelligent driving, and robotics [1] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in large financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries to capitalize on growth opportunities [1]

华泰证券策略团队最新研报指出，上周进入海内外关键事件频发的"超级周"，后半周在美元指数、政策 预期扰动下，市场缩量调整，但考虑到目前赚钱效应已回调至7月中旬位置、市场抛压相对可控，短期 A股或进入波动率放大的平台期，局部热点活跃或为基准情形。结合题材容量、补涨空间、业绩持续性 分析，目前具备补涨逻辑且景气改善持续性的板块主要集中于AI、产能出清及自主可控方向。配置 上，把握赔率思维，关注白色家电等跌出股息率性价比的稳健及潜力高股息品种及Q2业绩回升且具备 补涨逻辑的方向，如存储芯片、光纤光缆、氯碱、航空装备、 智能驾驶、机器人等。战略上超配大金 融、创新药、军工。 ...

期货研究报告|氯碱月报 2025-08-03 供需压力仍存，氯碱短期承压 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 PVC 基本面分析：供应方面，前期检修回归复产，且氯碱利润支撑下整体开工走高， 叠加渤化与万华新增 90 万吨产能 8 月逐步量产，PVC 产量预期继续回升，供应端压力 仍较大。需求端，PVC 下游制品开工延续同期低位，企业采购积极性偏低，内需延续 疲弱；出口端印度进口 PVC 政策与雨季的影响，或仍会拖累出口持续性表现。产量上 升、需求疲软下，PVC 社会库存预期延续累库格局。前期 PVC 受宏观扰动上涨，老旧 产能 ...

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[7] - Retail sales of automobiles have slightly declined, with wholesale volumes increasing marginally, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts[16] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline[16] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[22] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[22] Import and Export Dynamics - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[32] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3%, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[32] Production and Inventory - Overall production has shown marginal weakening, with coal consumption rising seasonally but still reflecting a year-on-year decline[36] - Inventory levels for coal at ports have slightly decreased, while cement and steel inventories have shown seasonal increases[39] Price Movements - Consumer prices continue to decline, with the iCPI showing a slight decrease in year-on-year growth, particularly in transportation and healthcare sectors[42] - Industrial prices are also experiencing a marginal decline, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1%[42] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressure in the funding market[46]

英力特8月1日披露，截至7月31日公司股东户数为24895户，较上期（7月20日）减少2471户，环比降幅 为9.03%。 （原标题：英力特最新股东户数环比下降9.03% 筹码趋向集中） 公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入4.00亿元，同比下降2.32%，实现净利 润-8223.50万元，同比下降17.75%，基本每股收益为-0.2700元。 7月11日公司发布上半年业绩预告，预计实现净利润-1.48亿元，同比下降19.78%。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券时报•数据宝统计，截至发稿，英力特收盘价为9.00元，上涨1.69%，本期筹码集中以来股价累计平 盘报收。具体到各交易日，6次上涨，4次下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong chemical leader Binhua Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a strategic move to establish an "A+H" dual capital platform and enhance its global presence and competitiveness [1][5]. Industry Transformation - The global chemical industry is undergoing significant changes, with supply-demand mismatches, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks putting pressure on profits. However, long-term trends such as "green transformation," "domestic substitution," and "high-end industrialization" are creating strategic opportunities for structural shifts [1]. - The expansion of the new energy industry chain under the "dual carbon" strategy is generating new market opportunities within the chemical sector, making Binhua's timing for the Hong Kong listing particularly strategic [1]. Growth Drivers - Binhua Co., Ltd. reported strong growth in its Q1 2025 financial results, achieving revenue of 3.782 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 94.14%, primarily due to the production ramp-up of its carbon three and four projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 95.9991 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.75% [1]. - The company's net cash flow from operating activities surged by 8924.95% to 984 million yuan, indicating a marked improvement in cash flow management [1]. Technological Advancements - Continuous technological breakthroughs are laying the foundation for sustainable development. Binhua's newly developed processes for producing epoxy chloropropane and innovations in water resource utilization and energy-saving technologies have been recognized by industry associations [2]. - The successful production of qualified 6N-grade electronic-grade chlorine and the performance testing of a new alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system highlight the company's commitment to advancing in high-tech sectors [2]. Capital Strategy - The upcoming Hong Kong listing is expected to leverage international capital to accelerate Binhua's high-end and green industry layout, particularly in high-end chemical new materials and electronic chemicals [3]. Strategic Planning - Binhua has proposed the "Beikun Plan," which aims to establish a new green energy center in the northern coastal region of Binzhou, integrating renewable energy projects with biomass technology [4]. - The plan includes the development of six core industrial clusters, focusing on high-end new materials, deep processing of light hydrocarbons, electronic chemicals, and more, to promote cluster development in the Binzhou chemical industry [4]. - A strategic technology innovation system will guide industrial development, incorporating various initiatives to foster high-tech projects and support the creation of a zero-carbon industrial park [4].

山东主力下游采购价下调，烧碱承压运行 市场要闻与重要数据 氯碱日报 | 2025-08-01 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5041元/吨（-118）；华东基差-121元/吨（-2）;华南基差-61元/吨（+58）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4920元/吨（-120）；华南电石法报价4980元/吨（-60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格540元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润58元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-134元/吨（+181）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-506元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨（-2.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存35.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存42.7万吨（+1.6）；PVC电石法开工率74.42%（-4.79%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%（+3.29%）；PVC开工率73.26%（-2.55%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.5万吨（+9.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2560元/吨（-53）；山东32%液碱基差34元/吨（+53）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）； ...