Core Viewpoint - The wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China have increased as of January 26, with the average wholesale price of 92 gasoline at 7341 yuan per ton, up by 9 yuan per ton from January 23, and diesel at 6097 yuan per ton, up by 2 yuan per ton from January 23 [1] Market Overview - The increase in wholesale prices is attributed to a rise in international crude oil futures prices and a positive change in the average price of a basket of crude oil, although demand remains limited, leading to a relatively stable purchasing atmosphere [1] Regional Price Changes - Gasoline prices increased in regions including Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Beijing, and Hubei, while prices decreased in Gansu, Sichuan, and Chongqing - Diesel prices rose in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Henan, but fell in Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shanxi, and Guangxi [1] Data Source - The price data is published by the China Economic Information Agency and the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute's "Energy Big Data Laboratory," reflecting the overall situation of the gasoline and diesel wholesale market in China [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周一油价震荡回落，其中WTI 3月合约收盘下跌0.44美元至60.63美元/桶，跌幅0.72%。布伦特3月合约收 盘下跌0.29美元至65.59美元/桶，跌幅0.44%。SC2603以450.1元/桶收盘，下跌0.8元/桶，跌幅为0.18%。 随着一个承担了哈萨克斯坦大部分原油出口的关键黑海码头恢复运行，一度导致欧洲市场供应紧张的哈 萨克斯坦原油出口中断情况有所缓解。与此同时，该国巨型的Tengiz油田也将于近期重新启动产出。在 投资者评估席卷美国广大地区的冬季风暴带来的影响之际，新增供应缓解了市场对短缺的担忧。包括埃 克森美孚公司的Baytown大型炼油厂在内的多家工厂在暴风雪来临前削减了运营。1月26日，中东紧张 局势仍在持续，美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军力量引发外界猜测他可能兑现攻击伊朗政权的威 胁，并加剧了对该国原油产出的担忧。特朗普表示，鉴于韩国方面尚未通过该项贸易协议，他已决定将 对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-27 哈萨克斯坦原油供应即将回归，地缘和 预期促使能化延续震荡 原油市场延续震荡整理格局，多重因素作用于油价之上。原油实际供 需而言，彭博报道哈萨克斯坦的原油出口终端已经完成修复，田吉兹巨型 油田的生产也即将重启，这将有助于缓解欧洲市场的偏紧格局。1月20日 当周，强冬季风暴登陆美国大西洋沿岸，带来强降雪和冻雨天气，2月3日 左右美国气温又将明显回升。美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军兵力 后，当地地缘紧张局势持续升级，伊朗日产原油超过300万桶，是具有地 缘意义的产油国，局势的不确定性对油价形成支撑。（以上新闻和数据均 来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，供需面的因素退居其次，预期的力量依旧较 强。液体化工库存周度全线增加，纯苯华东港口库存环比增2.69%，苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比增7.59%，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增7.8%，化工实 体需求即将逐步进入消费淡季，产业将逐步累库。化工整体处于震荡格 局，芳烃生产已经出现利润，但当前也看不到供给大幅增加打压价格的情 况；聚烯烃期价反弹，油制烯烃生产盈亏格 ...

原油周报：风险偏好增强，地缘影响持续 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周原油走势相对平稳，市场情绪好转，交易仍然主要围绕着地缘波动。包括总统特朗普软对伊朗的表态，在格 陵兰问题上的博弈，以及乌克兰-俄罗斯和平谈判的可能。叠加其余如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田短暂中断的扰动以及 欧美寒潮的支撑，增加了油价的波动，总体盘面偏平稳。后期来看，地缘扰动可能进一步走强，军事集结本身就 是最大的不确定性，为油价提供了间歇性的、事件驱动型的上涨动力。 【策略】 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 单边：震荡偏强。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, with the expected production increase in Venezuela and the normalization of low - intensity frictions between the US and Iran, there is a bottom support for oil prices. It is cost - effective to go long when the price is around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its future pattern will improve marginally. Although there is short - term downward pressure, it is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] - For rubber, with the overall rise in commodities, but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [15][17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [19][20] - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [22][23] - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply - surplus situation may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24][26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [27][28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [29][32] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [33][34] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 17.90 yuan/barrel, a 4.07% increase, closing at 457.30 yuan/barrel; related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 178.00 yuan/ton, a 6.81% increase, closing at 2791.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 108.00 yuan/ton, a 3.49% increase, closing at 3206.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 11.48 million barrels, a 2.00% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 2.84% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.11 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels, a 4.36% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels, a 2.79% increase; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.51 million barrels to 47.76 million barrels, a 1.08% increase [2][3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase gradually. The situation between the US and Iran will enter a state of low - intensity friction normalization. There is a bottom support for oil prices, and it is cost - effective to go long around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 77.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2347 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 148 yuan [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the future pattern will improve marginally. It is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton, closing at 1791 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 51 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals rose overall, and rubber prices rebounded. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to macro funds' large - scale allocation of chemical longs, the expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to the naphtha consumption tax policy, and the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The port inventory decreased significantly. The long and short sides have different views on natural rubber. The long side believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and there is an expected improvement in demand in China; the short side believes that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than last week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than last week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period [10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the overall rise in commodities but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, closing at 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 209 (+62) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2475 (- 25) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 785 (- 35) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (- 5) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 605 (- 17) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period; the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6010 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6078 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the basis of pure benzene was - 68 yuan/ton, a 23 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 7850 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 7702 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan decrease; the basis was 148 yuan/ton, a 156 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 194.75 yuan/ton, a 9.75 - yuan increase; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 119.6 yuan/ton, a 20.55 - yuan decrease; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.30%, a 0.10% decrease, the operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 66.80%, a 3.00% decrease [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6935 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6737 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 198 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan decrease [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, closing at 7508 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 7 dollars, closing at 930 dollars. The basis was - 35 yuan (+34), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan (+10). The operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS plant restarted overseas. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. In the first and middle of January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6 tons. The PXN was 358 dollars (+18), the South Korean PX - MX was 151 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 86 dollars (- 14) [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 5448 yuan. The East China spot price rose 65 yuan, closing at 5350 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 30 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a 4 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 34 yuan to 439 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 19 yuan to 504 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 3997 yuan. The East China spot price rose 89 yuan, closing at 3887 yuan. The basis was - 120 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 97 yuan (- 14). The supply - side operating rate was 73%, a 1.4% decrease; among them, the synthetic gas - based operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.8% decrease; the ethylene - based operating rate was 69.5%, a 1.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 23 - 25 was 2 tons. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 869 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 606 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 352 yuan. The price of ethylene fell to 705 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines fell to 530 yuan [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions on various commodities, particularly precious metals, oil, and stock indices, highlighting the ongoing volatility and strategic investment opportunities in these markets [2][18]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Recent international silver prices have shown significant volatility, with a peak at $117.74 per ounce before retreating below $105, reflecting a daily increase of less than 1% after a prior surge of nearly 14% [1]. - The rise in gold prices to historical highs is attributed to geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][18]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar's credibility, prompting central banks to diversify their reserve assets and increase gold purchases [2][18]. Group 2: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock market has shown positive momentum, with major indices rising and a market turnover of 3.28 trillion yuan, driven by a shift towards profitability and the release of policy dividends [3][11]. - The ongoing economic recovery, coupled with the return of overseas capital, is expected to support a continued upward trend in the stock market, with supply-side reforms likely to boost commodity prices and resource stocks [3][11]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced fluctuations, with recent comments from President Trump indicating potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, which could impact oil supply dynamics [13]. - The U.S. average daily crude oil production has decreased slightly to 13.732 million barrels, while still showing a year-on-year increase of 255,000 barrels [13]. Group 4: Industry News - The latest statistics from the Ministry of Public Security indicate that by the end of 2025, the number of motor vehicles in China reached 469 million, with new registrations exceeding 30 million for the 11th consecutive year [8]. - The domestic futures market has seen regulatory actions aimed at cooling down trading activities, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements for silver and copper futures [7].

⑥美油主力合约收跌0.39%，报60.83美元/桶；布油主力合约跌0.26%，报64.9美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.48%报97.0244，离岸人民币对美元跌2.5个基点报6.9490； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨2.78%报3351.0美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.84%报3195.5美元/吨， LME期铜涨0.52%报13183.0美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.49%报2036.0美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.89%报18590.0美 元/吨，LME期锡跌4.09%报54495.0美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌0.18个基点报3.588%，3年期美债收益率跌0.27个基点报 3.654%，5年期美债收益率跌0.17个基点报3.819%，10年期美债收益率跌0.99个基点报4.211%，30年期 美债收益率跌2.13个基点报4.801%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌1.5个基点报4.496%，法国10年期国债收益率跌5.8个 基点报3.434%，德国10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基点报2.865%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌4.7个基点报 3.464%，西班牙 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 消息人士称，俄罗斯能源部提议提前解除汽油出口禁令。 此前在2025年12月27日，俄联邦政府新闻处通报，俄政府已于当月25日通过决议，将车用汽油临时出口 禁令延长至2026年2月28日，该禁令覆盖所有出口商，包含石油产品直接生产商。同期，柴油、船用燃 料油及其他瓦斯油的出口禁令也被延长至同一时间，但后者不适用于石油产品直接生产商，相关措施自 决议公布次日起生效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced slight declines amid market uncertainty, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, remaining a significant factor influencing the market [4][19]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, WTI crude oil futures closed at $60.63 per barrel, down $0.44 or 0.72%, while Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.30 or 0.46% to $64.77 per barrel [21]. - The Chinese SC crude oil futures also saw a decrease, closing at 450.10 yuan, down 0.18% [18][21]. - The market is currently characterized by volatility, with geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions contributing to fluctuations in oil prices [4][20]. Geopolitical Factors - Reports indicate that Iran's Supreme Leader has moved to a secure underground facility, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is on high alert, suggesting ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][19]. - Israel has indicated that a "sensitive period" is approaching, with potential military actions against Iran speculated for the second quarter [4][19]. Weather Impact - An extreme winter storm has significantly affected U.S. energy supplies, leading to a reduction in both oil and natural gas production [24]. - The storm is expected to cut natural gas production by 86 billion cubic feet over the next two weeks, with North Dakota's oil production decreasing by 80,000 to 110,000 barrels per day [24]. OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production levels in response to global supply surplus and geopolitical risks, with no immediate plans to adjust output despite ongoing tensions in Venezuela and Iran [26][10]. - The organization is prepared to respond quickly to any significant supply disruptions that may arise [26]. Supply Recovery - Kazakhstan's largest oil field, Tengiz, is set to resume production, which has contributed to a decline in Middle Eastern benchmark crude prices [20][26]. - The resumption of production at key oil fields is expected to ease previous supply constraints that had supported higher oil prices [26]. Natural Gas Market - U.S. natural gas futures surged to a ten-year high due to extreme cold weather, with prices rising 14% to $6.014 per million British thermal units [22][23]. - The market is experiencing significant supply disruptions, with nearly 10% of U.S. natural gas production affected [23]. Conclusion - The oil market remains under pressure from geopolitical tensions and weather-related supply disruptions, leading to a complex trading environment characterized by volatility and uncertainty [4][20][24].

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月26日，美油主力合约收跌0.39%，报60.83美元/桶；布油主力合约跌0.28%， 报64.89美元/桶。 ...