2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

Group 1 - The overall industrial economy in the province is showing a rapid recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - In March, the output value of key emerging industries grew by 10.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - Industrial fixed asset investment growth reached 14.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average, with manufacturing investment growth at 17.5%, exceeding the national level by 8.4 percentage points [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment growth was notably high at 57.9%, ranking fifth in the country, while manufacturing technological transformation investment growth reached 61.9% [1] - The mining industry added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average, while the manufacturing industry growth was 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industry growth was 5.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Among the top ten industries, the equipment industry led with an 18.9% growth rate, 8 percentage points higher than the national average, while the energy industry grew by 5.9% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a significant increase in added value growth of 10.1%, while the food industry grew by 5.2%, the petrochemical industry by 2.2%, the metallurgy industry by 5.4%, and the building materials industry by a remarkable 31.5% [2] - The provincial government aims to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Jinshan Shopping Festival has been launched with the theme "'Golden' Colorful, Vibrant Bay Area" [1] - Jinshan District is promoting its hidden factory stores, which include 24 selected "treasure" factory stores, showcasing a variety of industrial products [1][3] - The shopping festival will run from May 1 to June, featuring various activities including an international music and fireworks show [5] Group 2 - Jinshan District is a key area for promoting the "Shanghai Manufacturing" brand, with a solid foundation in advanced materials, life health, high-end intelligent equipment, and new generation information technology [1] - The factory stores cover multiple sectors such as food, clothing, and daily chemicals, with special promotions like 50% off on certain products [3] - The newly launched industrial tourism routes connect local attractions with factory stores, creating a one-stop shopping and tourism experience [3][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government's tariff policies are leading to higher prices and potential shortages of goods, particularly affecting consumers and small businesses [1][5][7] - The toy industry is significantly impacted, with approximately 80% of toys sold in the U.S. being manufactured in China, leading to price increases or production halts by U.S. manufacturers unable to absorb costs [3][5] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has requested tariff exemptions for small import businesses to mitigate the negative economic impacts of tariffs, emphasizing the urgency of negotiations to remove tariffs imposed this year [5][6] Group 2 - The potential for economic recession in the U.S. has increased significantly due to the adverse effects of the tariff policies on consumers and businesses [6][7] - Experts and industry insiders are warning that the negative consequences of tariffs extend beyond toys to various sectors including clothing, food, and electronics, indicating a broader economic issue [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involution" in consumer culture, highlighting how businesses often replicate each other, leading to a lack of uniqueness and excitement in shopping experiences [4][20]. Group 1: Examples of Involution - Many famous shopping streets in China look almost identical, offering the same local snacks and souvenirs, which detracts from the authentic local experience [2]. - Renowned shopping centers also exhibit a high degree of similarity, with luxury brands and common products dominating the landscape, making shopping feel monotonous [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - Involution occurs because businesses tend to engage in the same practices, leading to a homogenized market [5][20]. - The article references the work of Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, who emphasizes the importance of unique offerings in combating this trend [5][20]. Group 3: Case Study of Shimokitazawa - Shimokitazawa, a vibrant Tokyo neighborhood, initially saw a decline in popularity due to the influx of chain stores, which made the area less distinctive [10][11]. - To regain its charm, the community began to reject chain stores and welcomed unique local shops, which successfully revitalized the area [12][15]. Group 4: Unique Business Strategies - The article highlights a Tommy flagship store in Tokyo that offers exclusive items not available in other locations, demonstrating the value of uniqueness in retail [16][17]. - It argues that in a world filled with sameness, distinctiveness is a rare and valuable resource [19]. Group 5: Learning from Japan - The article promotes a study trip to Japan, focusing on how the country has addressed low-growth challenges and the emergence of unique business models in a "low-desire society" [20][25]. - It suggests that understanding Japan's approach to consumer needs and societal changes can provide insights for future business strategies in China [20][25].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Shandong Province Foreign Trade Quality Shopping Season" is set to launch from mid-May to late June, aiming to support foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales channels and stabilizing production operations [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The shopping season will feature five themed events focusing on various industries, including textiles, daily consumer goods, food, agricultural products, building materials, home appliances, crafts, and machinery [2][3]. - The first event, a "Textiles, Daily Consumer Goods, and Toys Foreign Trade Quality Shopping Festival," is scheduled from May 15 to 19, with over 400 foreign trade enterprises participating [3]. - The second event will focus on "Food and Agricultural Products" from May 23 to 27, leveraging the consumption surge during the Dragon Boat Festival, with over 200 enterprises involved [3]. - The third event will be a "Building Materials, Home Appliances, and Kitchenware Foreign Trade Quality Shopping Festival" from June 5 to 9, featuring over 200 enterprises [3]. - The fourth event will highlight "Crafts, Gifts, and Decorative Items" from June 13 to 17, coinciding with the 9th China Time-honored Brands (Shandong) Expo, with around 300 enterprises participating [3]. - The fifth event, a "Machinery and Electronics Foreign Trade Procurement Matchmaking Conference," is planned for June 25, involving over 50 enterprises [3]. Group 2: Ongoing Activities - From May to December, Shandong Province will conduct regular "Foreign Trade Quality Product Shows" and "Six Entry" activities to enhance the continuity and timeliness of foreign trade enterprises' efforts to expand domestic sales [4]. - The "Foreign Trade Quality Product Show" will be featured at 35 key exhibitions, including the Shandong International Health Industry Expo and the China International Consumer Electronics Expo, with dedicated "Foreign Trade Quality Product Zones" [4]. - The "Six Entry" activities will target various locations such as scenic spots, commercial districts, pedestrian streets, government agencies, universities, and communities, with over 300 events planned by the end of the year [4].

□本报记者 王歌 消费一头连着宏观经济，一头连着千家万户，是拉动经济的"三驾马车"之一。今年一季度，河南省社会 消费品零售总额7400.54亿元，同比增长7%，总额居全国第五位、增速居全国第三位，实现了"开门 红"。 "奋战二季度，确保'双过半'，河南将围绕'乐购河南·品质生活'主题，开展形式多样的提振消费活动。"4 月30日，在省政府新闻办召开的河南省奋战二季度确保"双过半"系列政策措施新闻发布会上，省商务厅 党组书记、厅长王振利介绍，在激发消费活力方面，省级层面安排1.5亿元资金，分3期发放零售、餐 饮、文旅、住宿消费券，所有在豫人员均可申领。"今天上午已进行了首发。"他说。 今年，我省加力扩围消费品以旧换新，全面开展汽车、家电、数码产品、家装厨卫、电动自行车等5个 领域补贴活动。王振利表示，下一步将继续加强统筹协调，优化工作流程，更好惠民便民。 此外，我省还将重点围绕精品购物、精致美食、精彩文旅、夜间消费等领域，举办形式多样的特色活 动，积极打造"一城一IP"夜消费品牌。 与消费并列，外贸也是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一。作为外贸大省，今年前3个月，全省外贸进出 口总额2042.6亿元、同比增长28% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Government is launching the "2025 Shandong Foreign Trade Quality Products Shopping Season" to support local foreign trade enterprises facing challenges due to increased tariffs from the United States, aiming to stabilize foreign trade and expand domestic sales [2] Group 1: Event Overview - The shopping season will run from mid-May to late June 2025, featuring a theme of "Foreign Trade Quality Products, Quality Enjoyment in Qilu" [2] - Five specialized events will be held, focusing on textiles, daily consumer goods, food, agricultural products, building materials, home appliances, crafts, and electromechanical products [2][3] - The first event is scheduled for May 15-19, 2025, focusing on textiles, daily consumer goods, and toys [3] Group 2: Support Measures - The Shandong Provincial Commerce Department plans to conduct extensive research on export products affected by external changes, with a focus on consumer and electromechanical products [2] - The department will implement three key strategies: enhancing policy support, increasing financial assistance, and expanding service coverage for foreign trade enterprises [4] - Specific measures include developing targeted policies to assist enterprises in transitioning from export to domestic sales, increasing the scale of "Qilu E-commerce Loans," and improving the efficiency of insurance products for market risks [4]