Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in market pricing logic from light asset expansion to the valuation of hard-to-replicate physical assets, driven by high real interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and AI capital expenditures [1] - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a resurgence, with the Agricultural ETF (516810) rising over 1% and benefiting from various factors such as the reversal of the pig cycle and chemical cycle, as well as the emphasis on food security [1] - The valuation of the agricultural sector is at historical lows, providing a high safety margin and anti-inflation attributes due to its strong internal circulation characteristics [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural ETF holds leading stocks in pig farming, agricultural chemicals, and planting industries, making it well-positioned to benefit from multiple positive trends [1] - The ETF offers advantages such as low entry barriers, risk diversification, and transparent holdings, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the agricultural sector's rebound [1] - The report from Goldman Sachs emphasizes the revaluation of scarcity in the context of increasing global uncertainties, particularly regarding food security as a national strategic bottom line [1]

27日早盘，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，失守3300点；A股市场超2900股飘绿。 东莞证券表示，进入2026年，宏观政策围绕"十五五"规划开局部署，以财政金融协同扩大内需为主线， 在货币政策、财政政策、进出口调控与房地产市场等领域精准协同、综合发力，统筹短期稳增长与长期 育动能。随着结构性货币政策工具落地、财政补贴直达与地方细则实施，内需潜力有望持续释放， 为"十五五"起步之年实现经济质的有效提升与量的合理增长奠定坚实基础。板块选择方面，建议重点关 注红利、TMT、电力设备等板块。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.17%报4139.53点，深证成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌1.46%，沪深北三市合计成交 约1.6万亿元。 盘面上看，造纸、半导体、建材等板块走低，电力、煤炭、有色、钢铁、农业等板块拉升，算力、AI 应用、稀土概念等活跃。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

秦东大地，寒意未尽，创新发展的热潮已在渭水之畔涌动。 回望2025年，秦创原增材制造产业创新聚集区总投资68.3亿元的项目落地渭南；全市新能源发电装 机突破1000万千瓦；四大特色农业全产业链产值突破千亿元……这一连串亮眼数字的背后，是渭南以创 新驱动为核心、以产业升级为路径，系统布局、全域发力，加速形成新质生产力的生动实践。 以"智"提质 重塑工业核心竞争力 传统制造业是实体经济的重要组成部分。在渭南，一场关于"智造"的变革正在生产一线深入推进。 打造低碳发展新动能 2月25日，在渭南科赛机电设备有限责任公司的生产车间，工人们正在调试机器、有序生产。作为 国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业，该公司并未止步于传统机械加工，而是持续深耕印刷包装自动控制与信 息处理核心技术的研发应用。 "我们坚持创新驱动，将科技攻关与成果产业化紧密结合，这就是我们赢得市场的底气。"该公司技 术部负责人杨仓顺表示。截至目前，该公司研发的印刷机电脑套色控制系统、印刷图像监测系统、电子 轴控制系统等30多类产品，已远销全球60多个国家和地区。 位于渭南高新区的陕西北人印刷机械有限责任公司近年来积极推进智能加工基地建设，推动装配流 程标准化、 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 北半球方面，2 月上半月印度产量同比小幅减产，而泰国产量同比小幅增产，二者相互抵消。而目前原 糖价格已经跌至历史低位，且持续贴水巴西乙醇折算价，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗 制糖比例的可能性，不宜过分看空。国内方面，现阶段高库存依然压制糖价，短线延续观望，待北半球 收榨后供应压力缓解，或有反弹的可能性。 棉花 【行情资讯】 （1）据 USDA 数据显示，2 月 5 日至 2 月 12 日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售 10.68 万吨，创 2026 年以来单周新高，累计出口销售 198.99 万吨，同比减少 14.29 万吨；其中当周对中国出口 0.4 万吨，累 计出口 9.79 万吨，同比减少 7.41 万吨。（2）据 Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 6 日当周，纺纱厂开机率 为 60.5%，环比前 ...

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（来源：中国改革报） 转自：中国改革报 金昌，这座被誉为"中国镍都"的工业城市，其发展与改革始终蕴含着坚韧与创新。甘肃省金昌市发展改 革委价格与收费管理科立足产业特色与民生需求，在价格改革、营商环境优化、监测预警、技术创新四 个维度精准发力，用实干为地方经济社会稳定发展注入了强劲的"价费动能"。 在农产品成本调查领域，金昌承担着小麦、生猪等国家品种的调查任务。工作人员每年完成种植意向、 存售粮等4项专项调查及直报任务，累计形成高质量报告80余篇。2020年，在克服疫情影响的情况下， 金昌成功承办"甘肃省农资购买情况专项调查数据集中汇总审核暨业务培训工作会"，其创新的数据审核 方法为全省调查工作树立了"金昌典范"。 坚持以"标准化+信息化"驱动工作升级。制定《价格成本监审标准化操作手册》，构建"资料初审—实地 核查—专家论证—集体审议"闭环机制。近5年，完成教育、医疗、供水等领域成本监审36项，核减不合 理成本上亿元。 此外，探索完善"2+4"产业链特色产品监测体系，对镍、铜等重要商品和服务价格实施全方位、多层次 监测管理。创新农产品成本调查模式，利用Excel图表与编程技术建立数据模型分析机制，探索实现调 查 ...

中央一号文件提出，健全财政金融协同支农投入机制，充分发挥支农支小再贷款、科技创新和技术改造 再贷款等政策激励作用，推动金融机构加大对农业农村领域资金投放。眼下，随着我国政策的持续完 善，金融机构不断加大对"三农"的支持和服务力度，涉农贷款投放规模持续增大，农村金融服务覆盖面 不断扩大、可得性大大提升。 2025年以来，各地积极响应国家政策，加快农村金融产品和服务方式创新，助力乡村全面振兴。如广东 省健全普惠金融政策体系，以注入资本金、降费奖补和代偿补偿3种方式，引导财政金融活水精准滴 灌"三农"等经营主体；福建省创新融合货币、财政、产业政策的"再贷款+乡村振兴贷/乡村振兴示范 点"等模式，持续扩大"三农"领域信贷投放；浙江省创新土特产担保产品和政策性农险，不断扩大农业 有效抵押担保物范围，率先在全国制定畜牧业、渔业资产抵押贷款操作指引，涉农贷款余额、普惠型涉 农贷款居全国前列。中国人民银行持续完善政策框架，创新"三农"金融产品和服务，对服务"三农"领域 的金融机构实施差别化存款准备金率，运用支农支小再贷款、再贴现、普惠小微贷款等引导金融机构支 持"三农"工作。 提升农村数字金融发展水平。加快构建智能化服务平台 ...

这篇文章来分析当美国用一条推文就撕毁数十年国际贸易规则，巴西总统卢拉警告：这种'高烧39度的决策'正让全球贸易体系体温失控，面对政治勒索，巴 西选择以法律反制与多边合作冷静应对 司法裁定拦不住单边蛮干 全球贸易再遭冲击 2026年2月20日，美国最高法院给出明确判决，以6比3的投票结果，认定特朗普政府依托《国际紧急经济权力法》大范围加征关税的行为，没有合法的权力 支撑。 这本该让美国的贸易保护动作停下脚步，可事情走向完全超出常规预期，特朗普当天就在社交平台发布新决定，要对全世界所有国家的输美商品，统一加征 15%的关税。 单边关税大棒挥向全球，没有带来所谓的贸易公平，只让美国本土和全球市场都陷入焦虑，供应链的稳定运转，被彻底打乱。 中欧待遇意外反转 多国发声追求公平对待 这样的操作打破了国际经贸的基本规则，国家之间的贸易往来，本该靠协商和协议约束，不是靠单方面的临时指令随意更改。 全球的企业都被这波操作弄得手足无措，跨国订单的定价、物流安排、资金结算，全跟着陷入混乱，很多长期合作的贸易伙伴，一夜之间要面对全新的成本 压力。 欧盟最先站出来表达不满，2月22日路透社发布消息，欧盟委员会明确表态，不会接受美国随意 ...

在被问及海南与新加坡两个自由贸易港的关系时，王奉利说，新加坡是当前国际上高水平自贸港的典型 代表，海南与新加坡并不是取代的关系，而是合作。目前海南已经和新加坡樟宜机场建立合作伙伴关 系，下一步还会在更多领域推动合作。(完) 【东盟专线】海南自贸港将在多方面深化同东盟经贸合作 中新社海口2月26日电 (记者 王子谦)中外记者"走读中国·走进海南自贸港"新闻茶座26日在海口举行。海 南官员表示，海南自贸港封关后进行高水平开放，将在更多领域深化与东盟国家经贸合作。 在这场中外记者见面会上，海南封关如何惠及东盟国家，受到多国记者关注。海南省商务厅副厅长张跃 强表示，海南自贸港封关后，"零关税、低税率、简税制"的税收制度体系全面确立，加工增值免关税政 策升级，进一步降低了包括东盟商品在内的全球商品进入海南的成本，也为包括东盟国家在内的全球企 业带来发展新机遇。 张跃强说，作为引领中国新时代对外开放的重要门户，海南与东盟国家可以加大贸易便利化以及国际供 应链合作，大力发展数字贸易、绿色低碳、跨境电商等新兴领域贸易，拓展服务贸易。 近年来，海南与东盟保持密切经贸联系，海南自贸港全岛封关为合作拓展新领域。就在本月，海南打通 ...