交易台 – 高盛香港市场综述 恒生指数 +0.6% 国企指数 +0.8% 科技指数 +0.6% 成交额：2340 亿港元 领涨板块：医疗保健 +2.1%，能源 +1.8%，材料 +1.3% 落后板块：公用事业 -0.5%，地产 -0.5%，信息技术 -0.3% 港股开盘表现强劲，但很快回吐涨幅，收盘仅小幅走高。 恒生指数一度逼近 27400 点关口，随后回落至 27 交易台 – 高盛香港市场综述 恒生指数 +0.6% 国企指数 +0.8% 科技指数 +0.6% 成交额：2340 亿港元 领涨板块：医疗保健 +2.1%，能源 +1.8%，材料 +1.3% 落后板块：公用事业 -0.5%，地产 -0.5%，信息技术 -0.3% 港股开盘表现强劲，但很快回吐涨幅，收盘仅小幅走高。 内地 A 股表现落后于 H 股，收盘仅小幅上涨。 资金流向方面，交易台买入倾向为2.2 倍，零售板块（泡泡玛特）的回补买盘以及保险板块（友邦保险）的部分买 入使交易台倾向偏多。 交易台今日在大型科技股上也获得了不错的买盘，买入阿里巴巴，同时在美团等股票上进行做空以部分抵消。 材料板块买入持续，紫金矿业和 MMG1208 持续有买盘。 除此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical turning point entering 2026, transitioning from a valuation recovery phase to a profit-driven new cycle supported by policy efforts, improved corporate earnings expectations, and increased household savings entering the market [1] Market Outlook - If the "anti-involution" initiative achieves substantial results, the A-share market may experience an upward trend in 2026, fundamentally changing investor confidence [1] - The core driver for this potential growth is the continuous improvement in corporate profitability, which will support sustainable asset returns and valuations [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include real estate, materials, and information technology (IT) [2] - A stronger stabilization signal in the real estate sector, particularly with further policy easing in first-tier cities, could surprise the market positively [2] - The materials sector is closely tied to global macroeconomic trends, with a focus on precious metals outside the dollar and important metals related to new energy [2] - The IT sector is viewed cautiously in the short term due to high current valuations and elevated expectations for Q4 2025, suggesting a need for a correction before new investment opportunities arise [2][5] Foreign Capital Flow - The return of foreign capital is expected to be a gradual and structurally differentiated process, with passive funds actively positioning in the Chinese market [2] - Active international funds, particularly those excluding the U.S., have shown a narrowing of their underweight positions in Chinese stocks due to better understanding from their experiences with similar sectors [2][10] Profitability and Investment Strategy - The forecast for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, driven by an expected 15% year-on-year profit growth, with real estate, IT, and materials sectors anticipated to show significant performance [4] - The real estate sector's potential for upward movement is supported by a decrease in the ratio of residential value to GDP, currently at 1.8 to 1.9 times, below historical averages [4] - The materials sector's performance is linked to global economic conditions, focusing on precious metals and new energy-related metals [4] Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage, is expected to benefit from a shift towards healthier eating, with ongoing innovations in leading companies likely to yield positive results [9] - The food and beverage industry's current valuation is below the 10-year average, presenting a potential investment opportunity despite modest growth expectations [9] Market Conditions and Predictions - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to outperform large-cap stocks, with a predicted benchmark point for the MSCI China Index at 100, indicating significant upside potential [12] - The market's performance will largely depend on whether the price wars observed in 2025 can reverse in 2026 [12]

进入2026年，A股市场正站在一个关键的转折点上。自2024年9月"924"行情以来，上证指数从约2700点 一路攀升至当前4100点附近。这并非一轮情绪驱动的短期行情，而是在政策持续发力、企业盈利预期改 善以及居民储蓄加速入市的多重支撑下,市场正从估值修复阶段迈向盈利驱动的新周期。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者张伟泽袁思杰香港报道 2026年A股市场将如何演绎？投资者应采取何种策略？近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了摩根大通中国 内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝。 刘鸣镝表示，若反内卷取得实质性成效，2026年A股市场有望迎来一轮"慢牛"行情，投资者信心或将发 生根本性转变。其核心驱动力在于企业盈利能力的持续改善，而这将支持资产回报及估值的可持续性。 刘鸣镝以日本股市为例，指出日本东证指数（TOPIX）在过去十二年间上涨了约两倍， 但其每股营业 额以美元计价并未显著成长，关键在于企业净利润率从约3%上升到7%。她认为，中国企业正走在相似 的道路上，通过减少无效竞争、优化资本开支、稳定及提升股东回报，以逐步摆脱"增收不增利"的困 境。 在行业方面，刘鸣镝重点关注地产、材料与信息技术（IT）。她认为，若年内 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260209 科技"祛魅"VS 道指 50000 点时代 ——美 股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2026 年 2 月 2 日-2026 年 2 月 6 日）市场回顾：发达市场全周累计涨 跌幅归零，新兴市场转跌。从涨幅来看，新兴市场下跌 1.4%。 美股：本周道指领涨，上涨 2.5%，纳指领跌，下跌 1.8%，标普下跌 0.1%。 行业上，材料、工业领涨，信息技术领跌。标普 500 成份股上涨占比 67%。 其中达维塔保健、泰瑞达、泰佩思琦、好时、康宁等领涨。 ◼ 美股因科技股巨额资本开支加深焦虑，且美伊对峙的地缘威胁持续，美股整 体收跌。具体来看： 一是，Capex 从信心的锚转变为利润的黑洞。AI 焦虑席卷科技板块，Capex 支出的逻辑反转，从"增长引擎"到"盈利枷锁"。此前，市场将巨额的资 本开支视为增长的确定性。而现在叙事出现明显转变，Capex 支出变成了投 资回报的焦虑。资本开支依然在以双位数增长，但自由现金却因巨大摊销压 力受损，且 AI 带来的直接收入比如云服务、广告优化并未展现出与之匹配 的爆发性。考虑到英伟达月底财产财报 ...

Group 1 - The UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO) expects global stock markets to rise by approximately 10% by the end of this year, with the US market remaining a core component of investors' equity allocations and having further upside potential [1] - Other regions outside the largest global economy also present attractive opportunities, driven by strategic autonomy, regional fiscal expansion, and structural reforms, with a particular focus on China, Japan, and Europe [1] - The Chinese government's explicit support for domestic artificial intelligence (AI) models and chip manufacturing is expected to lay the foundation for further increases in Chinese tech stocks [1] Group 2 - In a low interest rate environment, domestic investors are pursuing yields, which is likely to benefit sectors such as finance, healthcare, consumer goods, materials, and power equipment due to structural advantages from healthcare companies expanding internationally, the rise of new consumption models, and grid modernization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant disparity in performance among gold stocks is attributed to the ability of some fund managers to adjust their portfolios in advance, avoiding major downturns, while others did not, leading to substantial losses [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold stocks has seen some funds experience minimal drawdowns, while others have nearly erased their gains from the past year, highlighting the importance of understanding the true sentiment of capital in the market [3]. - Many investors rely solely on market trends and news, which can lead to poor investment decisions, as the underlying capital participation varies significantly among stocks within the same sector [3][4]. Group 2: Case Studies - An example is provided of an investor who faced significant losses due to relying on price movements and news, illustrating the pitfalls of not recognizing the underlying trading logic [4][5]. - The investor's experience demonstrates that stocks can appear to be on the verge of collapse or recovery based solely on price charts, without considering the actual trading activity of larger funds [10][12]. Group 3: Quantitative Data Insights - Utilizing quantitative data, such as "institutional inventory," can reveal the active participation of large funds, helping investors discern market realities beyond superficial price movements [8][10]. - The analysis of institutional inventory data shows that sustained activity indicates ongoing interest from large funds, while a decline suggests a lack of interest, which can lead to misleading price movements [10][12]. Group 4: Advantages of Quantitative Tools - Quantitative tools simplify complex trading data into intuitive indicators, enabling even novice investors to make informed decisions without being swayed by emotional reactions to market fluctuations [13]. - The proactive adjustments made by fund managers using quantitative analysis exemplify the effectiveness of this approach in navigating market volatility [13][14]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Recent market corrections are viewed as temporary emotional releases rather than signs of a trend reversal, encouraging a long-term investment mindset [14]. - Investors are advised to enhance their understanding of market dynamics through quantitative tools, fostering a more stable and confident approach to investment decisions [14].

Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The report analyzes the valuation of major indices in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI), Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) [8][9][13][17]. - The report highlights that there are no industries currently undervalued with a PE valuation percentile below 20% [24]. - Industries with PE valuation percentiles below 50% include Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Utilities [24]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report indicates that industries with relatively high PE valuations (above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare, Financials, Information Technology, and Telecommunications [24]. - For PB valuation, no industries are currently undervalued with a percentile below 20% [24]. - Industries with PB valuation percentiles below 50% are Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate [24]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report includes a trend analysis of the Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index, showing fluctuations over time [34]. - The average value and standard deviations of the AH Share Premium Index are provided, indicating market sentiment towards AH shares [34].

Group 1: Company Developments - XianDao Intelligent has achieved mass production and bulk delivery of its 0BB stringer machine, which is a core incremental device for p-type HJT solar cells, with a maximum capacity of 11,000 half-cells per hour [1] - LimX Dynamics has completed a $200 million Series B financing round, with investors including UAE's Leishi Capital and JD.com, among others [3] - WoFei ChangKong announced the completion of nearly 1 billion RMB in a new financing round, aimed at finalizing certification for its AE200 series and establishing a global headquarters [4] - DeepMind has secured $60 million in a new financing round, with funds primarily allocated for upgrading its core technology system [5] - SDIC has made significant technological breakthroughs in its core high-end products, including OCA optical adhesive and MLCC release film, entering a stable mass supply phase [6] Group 2: Industry Trends - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in China has surpassed 50%, with a total sales volume of 231,100 units projected for 2025, marking a 182% year-on-year increase [7] - China's shipbuilding industry is expected to lead globally in three major indicators by 2025, with a completion volume of 53.69 million deadweight tons, accounting for 56.1% of the global market [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiangsu Subote New Materials Co., Ltd. won a procurement project from Guizhou Kezhuchuangpin Construction Technology Co., Ltd. with a bid amount of 2.6372 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - Subote (603916.SH) reported a revenue of 3.555 billion yuan for 2024, with a revenue growth rate of -0.75% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 96 million yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of -40.24% [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.673 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 7.03% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 63 million yuan, indicating a net profit growth rate of 18.68% [3] - The company operates in the materials industry, with its main product types including electronic testing and measurement instruments, polymer materials, synthetic fibers, chemical reagents, and paints [2][3] - The 2024 revenue composition of the company is as follows: high-performance water-reducing agents (52.3%), technical services (21.44%), functional materials (18.95%), others (5.36%), high-efficiency water-reducing agents (1.39%), and other businesses (0.55%) [3]

2月券商金股组合陆续揭晓。Wind数据显示，截至2月2日，共有196只标的入围金股组合。其中，阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、福斯特、中际旭创、紫金矿业 等机构关注度靠前，信息技术、工业、材料等行业集中获得券商认同。 近期市场出现短暂调整，机构普遍认为，目前并未面临政策转向、流动性实质性收紧等逻辑层面利空，支撑春季行情的核心逻辑也并未发生变化，短期调 整消化后，2月有望继续展开春季行情的下半场。 阿里巴巴-W获机构高度关注 从推荐机构数量来看，根据Wind统计，阿里巴巴-W同时获6家券商共同推荐，暂居第一。华源证券认为，阿里巴巴聚焦电商与云计算两大业务板块，电商 方向上通过千问打造新C端入口，同时淘宝闪购业务打开市场空间，云计算领域在AI云市场保持领先。 | 序号 | 证券简称 | 推荐次数 | Wind一级行业 | 推荐机构 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 阿里巴巴-W | 6 | 可选消费 | 光大证券,华源证券,兴业证券,国盛证券,申万宏源证券,国信证券 | | 2 | 腾讯控股 | 5 | 信息技术 | 光大证券,中国银河,国盛证券,国联民生,申万宏源证券 | ...