Core Viewpoint - China Resources Materials (301090.SZ) has confirmed that it is not involved in the nylon business and does not produce PA66 [1] Company Summary - The company explicitly stated on the interactive platform that it has not entered the nylon sector [1] - There is no production of PA66, a type of nylon, by the company [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Market Overview - In July, the A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.14% [1] Investment Recommendations - Over ten brokerages have released their investment portfolios for August, covering various sectors including consumption, technology, and finance [1] - The most frequently recommended stock is Dongfang Wealth, receiving endorsements from six brokerages. Other notable stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Dongpeng Beverage, Huadian Technology, and Muyuan Foods, each recommended by four brokerages [4][5] Stock Performance - Huadian Technology had the highest increase in July, with a rise of over 32%, closing at 53.85 yuan. Dongpeng Beverage, however, saw a decline of over 10%, closing at 285.05 yuan [4][5] Sector Preferences - Brokerages suggest focusing on technology, cyclical, and financial sectors as the A-share market may experience a period of consolidation [6] - The report from Guolian Minsheng indicates that liquidity support and a gradual increase in risk appetite will be key market themes, despite the potential for market adjustments [6] - Dongwu Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index has entered a new operational center, with a focus on low-level technology sectors as the market digests short-term profit-taking [6] - Donghai Securities highlights three main lines of focus for August: domestic service consumption, cyclical sectors with potential demand-side policy support, and midstream equipment manufacturing and non-bank financial sectors with strong profit certainty [6]

Group 1 - In August, a total of 178 stocks were recommended by brokerages, with Dongfang Caifu being the most recommended stock, receiving endorsements from 6 brokerages [1] - The market showed a positive trend in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, and 279 stocks were recommended, of which 177 saw price increases [2] - Six stocks performed exceptionally well in July, with price increases exceeding 50%, led by Kangchen Pharmaceutical with a 106.74% rise [2] Group 2 - The brokerage stock combination index reflects the professional strength of brokerage research, with 39 indices rising in July, and the Kaiyuan Securities stock index leading with a 15.07% increase [3] - The recommended stocks in August are concentrated in the materials and information technology sectors, each with 45 stocks, while industrial stocks number 31 [4] - Analysts expect a continued strong market in August, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" policy for future corporate profit improvements [4] Group 3 - Key investment themes include growth technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military, as well as sectors with strong performance support like rare earths and precious metals [5] - Upstream resource products benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic "anti-involution" policies are also highlighted, including copper, aluminum, and oil [5]

Core Viewpoint - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in financing events and amounts in China's primary market, indicating a challenging investment environment [4][8]. Group 1: Financing Events Overview - In the first half of 2025, China experienced 3,982 financing events, a decrease of 12% from the previous half and 25% year-on-year [4][8]. - The total disclosed financing amount was 194.8 billion RMB, down 25% from the last half and 50% from the same period last year [4][8]. - The most active sectors for financing included intelligent manufacturing (995 events), artificial intelligence (548 events), and healthcare (486 events), with intelligent manufacturing seeing a 7% decline from the previous half [4][11]. Group 2: Investment Stages - The distribution of financing events by stage showed that early-stage investments dominated with 3,106 events (78%), followed by growth-stage with 739 events (18.56%), and late-stage with 137 events (3.44%) [5][18]. - In terms of disclosed financing amounts, early-stage accounted for 981.36 billion RMB (50.85%), growth-stage for 640.30 billion RMB (33.17%), and late-stage for 308.42 billion RMB (15.98%) [18]. Group 3: IPO Market Analysis - A total of 130 Chinese companies completed IPOs in the first half of 2025, marking a 1% increase from the previous half and a 33% increase year-on-year [6][46]. - The total amount raised through these IPOs was 126.06 billion RMB, which is a 6% increase from the last half and a 161% increase from the same period last year [46]. - The leading sectors for IPOs included traditional industries (29 companies), healthcare (14), and consumer goods (14) [49]. Group 4: M&A Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, there were 237 M&A events in China, a decrease of 43% from the previous half and 45% year-on-year [55]. - The total disclosed amount for these M&A events was 68.145 billion RMB, down 48% from the last half and 62% from the same period last year [55]. - The top sectors for M&A activity included traditional industries (41 events), intelligent manufacturing (29), and healthcare (24) [57]. Group 5: Large Financing and Unicorn Analysis - Globally, there were 246 new large financing events in the first half of 2025, with China contributing 44 events, accounting for 18% of the global total [6][25]. - China saw the addition of 6 new unicorns in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 504, which represents 27% of the global unicorn count [33][34].

Group 1 - The A-share private placement market has shown significant recovery this year, with 76 listed companies completing private placements by July 30, raising a total of 663.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 667.15% [1][3] - The active participation in the private placement market spans various industries, with capital goods, materials, and technology hardware and equipment leading in the number of listed companies involved [3] - Four major banks, including Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, have raised over 100 billion yuan each through private placements, primarily for liquidity support [3] Group 2 - The growth in the private placement market has directly boosted the investment banking revenue for securities firms, with underwriting and advisory fees making up a significant portion of the issuance costs [4] - A total of 31 securities firms acted as lead underwriters for private placements, with CITIC Securities leading by underwriting 21 companies [4] - 62 out of the 76 companies that completed private placements disclosed their issuance costs, totaling 904 million yuan [4] Group 3 - Securities firms have actively participated in private placements, with 8 firms and 5 asset management companies involved in 25 companies, totaling 46 subscription instances [5] - Leading firms like GF Securities and Hua'an Asset Management have been prominent in participating in private placements, enhancing their returns and supporting the real economy [5] - The substantial subscriptions by top securities firms signal positive market sentiment, boosting investor confidence and market activity [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in private placements, with 76 companies completing placements and raising a total of 663.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 667.15% [1][2] - The majority of companies involved in private placements are from the capital goods, materials, and technology hardware sectors, with 21, 10, and 9 companies respectively [2] - Four banks raised over 100 billion yuan each through private placements, aimed at supplementing liquidity, while the remaining companies raised less than 20 billion yuan for various purposes [2] Group 2 - Securities firms are capitalizing on the recovery of the private placement market, benefiting from increased underwriting fees and potential investment returns from subscribed shares [3] - The expansion of private placement business is expected to enhance the revenue of securities firms, with underwriting and advisory fees being a significant portion of the issuance costs [3][4] - A total of 31 securities firms acted as lead underwriters for private placements, with CITIC Securities leading by underwriting 21 companies [4] Group 3 - Securities firms' participation in private placements is seen as beneficial for both their own profitability and the support of the real economy and industry upgrades [5][6] - The large-scale subscriptions by leading securities firms send positive signals to the market, boosting investor confidence and trading activity [6]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' strategy team emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas outside the US stock market, as the offshore Chinese market has broken through a year-long consolidation and reached a four-year high, driven by easing geopolitical concerns and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Market Breakthrough - The offshore Chinese market has reached a critical turning point, with the MSCI China Index hitting a four-year high and the CSI 300 Index also reaching a new annual peak; since the beginning of 2025, the MSCI China Index has accumulated a 25% increase, marking the second-best performance for the first seven months since 2010 [2] Driving Factors - Improved US-China trade relations have significantly boosted market risk appetite; strong capital inflows are evident with a surge in margin loans in Hong Kong and record inflows from southbound capital, indicating growing interest from overseas investors in Chinese stocks [3] - The deepening of "anti-involution" policies is reshaping industry dynamics, coupled with adjustments in earnings multiples, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 [3] Investor Trends - There is a notable shift in overseas investors' interest towards the Chinese market, with a significant increase in attention from US investors and a reduction in geopolitical concerns compared to the previous two years [4] - Investors are increasingly focused on the logic behind China's "supply-side reform 2.0" (anti-involution), with Goldman Sachs releasing a report to explain the long-term impacts of this policy on industry concentration and profit models [4] - Despite increased holdings of Chinese stocks by emerging market/Asia mutual funds, global actively managed funds' allocation to China remains near a cyclical low, indicating substantial future allocation potential [4] Sector Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has made key adjustments in sector allocations, focusing on policy sensitivity, valuation recovery, and earnings expectations; sectors such as insurance and materials are now overweight, while real estate and banking have been downgraded [5][6] - The insurance sector is particularly attractive with a projected 2025 P/E ratio of 7.6 and P/B ratio of 1.0, benefiting from a recovering stock market [5] - The materials sector is also upgraded to overweight due to its strong correlation with the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance profitability and industry concentration [5] Key Contradictions - A core contradiction exists in global asset allocation, with the strong performance of the US stock market potentially hindering some investors' allocation to China; however, China's independent logic, driven by "anti-involution" policies and capital inflows, highlights its long-term investment value [8] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on policy-sensitive sectors like insurance and materials, as well as undervalued recovery opportunities in certain consumer sectors [8] Summary - In the second half of 2025, global asset allocation should focus on differentiated logic, with the US market emphasizing earnings resilience and AI-driven opportunities, while the offshore Chinese market should anchor on policy reforms, capital inflows, and valuation recovery, favoring sectors like insurance and materials while avoiding high-involution and high-valuation pressure industries [11]

2025 年 7 月，高盛策略团队发布深度市场洞察，重申 "关注美国股市以外领域" 的布局建议正持续奏 效。随着中国离岸股市突破近一年盘整、创下 4 年新高（MSCI 中国指数、沪深 300 指数表现亮眼）， 地缘政治担忧缓解与 "反内卷" 政策深化成为驱动全球资产再平衡的关键变量。以下梳理核心观点、数据 与配置逻辑，解码投资新方向 —— 一、市场突破：中国离岸股市创 4 年新高，MSCI 中国指数涨势强劲 指数表现：MSCI 中国指数创下4 年新高，沪深 300 指数同步刷新年内高点；2025 年以来，MSCI 中国指 数已累计上涨25%（为 2010 年以来第二好 "前七月表现"）。 经过近一年震荡盘整，中国离岸股市迎来关键拐点： 驱动因素： 美中贸易关系缓和，市场风险偏好显著提升； 资金面强劲：香港市场保证金贷款激增、南向资金创纪录流入，海外投资者对中国股票的兴趣与其 "保 守配置" 间的缺口持续扩大； 政策与估值共振："反内卷"（供给改革 2.0）政策深化重塑行业格局，叠加对市盈率假设调整（从 11.6 倍→12 倍），高盛将 MSCI 中国指数12 个月目标从 85 上调至 90。 二、投资者动向： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in the Chinese market, including Goldman Sachs raising its MSCI China Index target and various government initiatives to support the AI and industrial sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs' Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, indicating a potential upside of 10% to 11% from the latest closing price [3]. - The MSCI China Index has increased over 25% year-to-date, with Goldman Sachs shifting its investment strategy to focus on individual stocks, upgrading the insurance and materials sectors to "overweight" while remaining cautious on banks and real estate [4]. - Key factors for the recent market performance include easing international trade tensions, strong Q2 GDP data, and a resurgence in the Hong Kong IPO market, alongside increased foreign interest in Chinese stocks [4]. Group 2: Government Initiatives in AI and Industry - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced measures to expand AI applications, including issuing 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers and 300 million yuan for AI model applications [6][7]. - The government aims to lower the cost of AI computing power and support the development of AI technologies, including intelligent chips and brain-computer interfaces [6][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to enhance policies for emerging industries, including humanoid robots and IoT, to stimulate consumption and industrial growth [10][11]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The article notes that the solar energy sector is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with recent efforts to stabilize prices and improve profitability across the supply chain [14]. - Analysts suggest that the AI industry in China is poised for continued growth, driven by advancements in AI models and domestic chip performance [9].