美股盘初，主要行业ETF涨跌不一，半导体ETF涨超1%，能源业ETF涨近1%，公用事业ETF跌超1%。 | 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ÷ | 成交量 ÷ | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 半导体ETF --- | 290.69 | +3.20 (+1.11%) | 73.72万股 | 34.36亿 +20.04% | | = == | | us SMH | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 87.86 | ↑ +0.76 (+0.87%) | 188.05万股 | 220.01亿 | +4.20% | 를 " | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 263.36 | ↓ +1.37 (+0.52%) | 52.79万股 | 837.63亿 +13.65% | | n … | | us XLK | | | | | | | | 全球科技股 ... | 95.80 | +0.28 (+0.30%) | 22994股 | 13.41亿 +13 ...

核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 工业盈利仍有压力 ❖ 工业企业仍然"增收不增利"：2025 年 6 月，规模以上工业企业实现利润 总额同比下降 4.3%，降幅较 5 月收窄 4.8 个百分点，工业企业盈利仍有压 力，其中以装备工业为代表的中游行业利润增长较快。6 月工业生产的韧性未 能对冲价格及利润率的拖累，经我们测算，6 月利润率对工业企业利润增速造 成了 6.9 个百分点的拖累，虽然较 5 月拖累幅度（-10.2 个百分点）边际缩 小，但企业利润率仍然在下降。 ❖ 下半年，企业盈利仍有压力：下半年美国需求可能会被前期"抢进口"透 支，参考上一轮中美贸易摩擦，2018 年-2019 年工业企业利润率连续两年下 滑，直到疫情后才有所改善。此外，关税毕竟增加了企业的成本，无论是直接 承担的关税，还是转口贸易等额外的摩擦成本，都将侵蚀工业企业的利润水 平。当前多个行业正在推动"反内卷"，上游控产提价的情况下，下游需求偏 弱的行业利润空间可能会被进一步压缩。 ❖ 装备制造业相对更具韧性：自 2025 年 4 月以来，利润率韧性方面，上游 采矿业>下游消费品制造业>中游装备制造业>公用事业>中游中间品，但是 细 ...

又一周，又一个关税最后期限。这次是8月1日周五，除非宣布新的贸易协议或延长截止日期，否则美国 将对欧盟、加拿大和墨西哥等关键贸易伙伴加征关税。 我们接触的客户对关税话题确实已感厌倦，这种情绪可以理解。截止期限来了又走，关税虽未升至威胁 过的最高水平但持续攀升，而经济数据和市场并未崩溃。因此人们很容易认为美国贸易政策已无法撼动 市场。 请抵制这种诱惑。关税的演变仍能创造压力与机遇。三大理由如下： 让我们从美国经济情景分析开始： 贸易引致经济放缓的概率达40%。考虑到当前有效关税税率，若8月对重要贸易伙伴进一步 加税——其中多个伙伴已对既往贸易威胁实施反制措施——很容易导致经济滑向温和衰退。 总之，我们认为美国经济结果偏向放缓，但随着财政状况和赤字问题提前明朗化，严重衰退 风险正在降低。这符合我们对各类资产的核心观点，尽管不同市场对这些结果的敏感度存在 差异。 对于固定收益市场，我们重点关注利率。关税引发的经济放缓应会触发美国国债价格上涨， 因美联储转向鸽派立场的预期日益增强。我们预计，同一动态将推动美元重启今年早些时候 开始的贬值趋势，同时海外投资者对冲美元过度敞口的动机增强也将助推这一进程。 股市同样面临差异 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.8% (previous value: -1.1%) [1] - Total operating revenue reached CNY 66.78 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% (previous value: 2.7%) [1] - In June, profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1% [1] Group 2: Production and Price Dynamics - Industrial production accelerated, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in June's added value, driven by strong export performance and domestic demand during the 618 shopping festival [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, continuing to exert pressure on profit recovery [1] - The cumulative profit margin for January to June was recorded at 5.15%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.26 percentage points [1] Group 3: Inventory and Receivables Management - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.60 trillion, growing by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth [1] - The average accounts receivable collection period decreased to 69.8 days in June, marking the first drop below 70 days in 2025, although it still increased by 3.6 days year-on-year [1] - The turnover days for finished goods inventory were recorded at 20.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days month-on-month [1] Group 4: Sector Performance Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant profit growth, with a 9.6% increase in June, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [2] - The "two new" policies positively impacted profit improvements in sectors like medical equipment and consumer electronics, with profits in smart drones and computers growing by 160.0% and 97.2% respectively [2] - However, downstream consumer goods manufacturing sectors such as furniture and textiles experienced negative profit growth [2]

7月27日，全国规模以上工业企业效益交出"期中卷"。 国家统计局公布数据显示，1至6月份全国规模以上工业企业实现营业收入66.78万亿元，同比增长 2.5%；实现利润总额34365亿元，同比下降1.8%（按可比口径计算）。 这份"期中卷"，既是今年上半年我国工业企业稳健前行的缩影，也对A股上市公司的盈利状况具有一定 的前瞻性。 广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓指出，上半年工业企业利润整体跌幅较2024年末收窄1.3个百分 点，一系列支持政策前置发力有效。 6月份规模以上工业企业营业收入保持增长，企业利润降幅收窄 从单月数据观察，6月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降4.3%，降幅较5月份收窄4.8个百分点。 国家统计局工业统计司统计师于卫宁在解读6月份工业企业利润数据时表示，"6月份，规模以上工业企 业利润同比降幅较5月份有所收窄，以装备工业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快。" 6月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长1%，增速与5月份持平，工业企业营收持续增长，为企业 盈利恢复创造有利条件。 从量－价－利润率三要素看，6月生产上行是带动企业利润降幅收窄的主要动能，但PPI和利润率的拖累 仍较为显著。6月"抢出口 ...

E券 CG 宏观动态报告 利润降幅收窄,"反内卷"初步体现 2025 年 1-6 月工业企业利润分析 2025 年 7 月 27 日 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 铁伟奥 ☎: 136-8324-0373 極: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研究助理：薄一程 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 7 月 27 日，国家统计局发布：1—6 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额 34365.0 亿元，同比下降 1.8%（前值 1.1%）；实现营业收入 66.78 万亿 元,同比增长 2.5%(前值 2.7%)。6 月 利润当月同比下降 4.3%(前值-9.1%), 工业企业利润仍处于负增区间,但降幅有所收窄。 工业生产提速,但价格和利润承压。从量、价、利润率三要素来看,6月生 o 产上行是带动企业利润降幅收窄 ...

7月25日，财政部发布的数据显示，上半年全国一般公共预算收入115566亿元，同比下降0.3%，降幅比 一季度收窄0.8个百分点。其中，全国税收收入92915亿元，下降1.2%；非税收入22651亿元，增长 3.7%。上半年，全国一般公共预算支出141271亿元，同比增长3.4%。 7月25日，财政部召开2025年上半年财政收支情况新闻发布会，介绍了上半年财政收支情况。财政部有 关负责人在新闻发布会上回应了化解地方政府债务风险、财政支出保障民生、国债发行、消费品以旧换 新等社会关注的热点话题。 三是提升医疗保障服务水平。基本公共卫生服务经费人均财政补助标准再提高5元，达到每人每年99 元。城乡居民医保人均财政补助标准再增加30元，达到每人每年700元。同时，加强医疗救助，今年中 央财政已下达相关补助资金5522亿元。 四是完善"一老一小"服务体系。实施居家和社区基本养老服务提升行动，支持因地制宜发展老年助餐服 务；建立育儿补贴制度，加强普惠托育服务体系建设。 五是兜牢困难群众生活保障底线。今年中央财政已下达困难群众救助补助资金1566.8亿元，支持地方做 好最低生活保障、特困人员救助供养、临时救助等工作。 2 ...

| 区域银行ET ... | 61.23 | -0.95 (-1.53%) 234.71万股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us KRE | | | | | 黄金ETF-SP ... | 307.68 | -2.59 (-0.83%) | 83.69万股 | | us GLD | | | | | 半导体ETF --- | 285.45 | -2.35 (-0.82%) | 37.26万股 | | us SMH | | | | | 生物科技指 ... | 134.84 | -0.59 (-0.44%) | 57163股 | | us IBB | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 87.21 | -0.22 (-0.25%) | 75.98万股 | | us XLE | | | | | 全球科技股 ... | 95.21 | -0.14 (-0.15%) | 1600股 | | us IXN | | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 261.13 | -0.26 (-0.10%) | 29.70万股 | | us XLK | | | | | 全球航空业E ... ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant market potential for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement in China, with an annual market scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan [1] - The implementation of the "Two New" policy is expected to drive substantial growth in equipment updates and consumer goods sales, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2] Group 1: Market Size and Growth - By the end of 2024, the total assets of large-scale industrial enterprises in China will exceed 178 trillion yuan, with a substantial number of aging vehicles and home appliances indicating a strong demand for upgrades [1] - The total number of equipment updates in key sectors is projected to exceed 20 million units in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in related manufacturing sectors [2] Group 2: Recycling and Utilization - In 2024, the number of new intelligent community recycling facilities will reach over 11,000, with a significant increase in the recycling of scrapped vehicles and household appliances [3] - The recycling of major renewable resources is expected to exceed 400 million tons, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year growth [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Support - The article outlines the need for enhanced coordination and effective implementation of the "Two New" policy, including the acceleration of project construction and fund allocation [3][4] - Financial support mechanisms will be strengthened, including interest subsidies for equipment update loans and increased green credit for sustainable consumer goods [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods as a crucial measure to address complex domestic and international situations, expand domestic demand, and accelerate the green transformation of the economy and society [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to enhance the implementation mechanism of the "Two New" policy, focusing on key areas and improving support measures while ensuring strict supervision and management [1][2]. - By the end of June this year, the sales generated from the replacement of old consumer goods in five categories (automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home decoration, and electric bicycles) exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected sales for 2024 [1]. Group 2: Financial Support and Risk Management - The NDRC will utilize special long-term bonds to support equipment update projects and ensure timely project construction and fund disbursement [2][3]. - There will be a focus on providing financial incentives for personal consumption loans and loans for service sectors, particularly in green credit for smart home appliances [3]. - The NDRC emphasizes strict supervision and management of the entire project and fund chain to prevent risks, including monitoring project organization, application, approval, and implementation [3].