粤开证券首席经济学家 罗志恒 一 关于经济增长及增速：三个"好于预期" 南都·湾财社：2025年，中国经济总量首次突破140万亿元大关，全年经济增长5%，连续三年保持5%及 以上的经济增速。请问如何看待140万亿和5%这两个数字？ 罗志恒： 2026年，是国家"十五五"规划的开局之年，这一新五年规划系统性勾勒出中国至2030年的发展蓝图。新 旧动能转换、发展范式升级、全球格局重塑，都将在这一时期找到新的交汇点。 理解"十五五"的顶层设计，是预见未来经济脉动与市场机遇的起点。时代的机遇藏在哪里？未来中国经 济增长的核心动力如何精准判断？值此开年之际，南都湾财社发起《开局2026：在新周期起点上》专题 策划。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒在接受南都·湾财社记者专访时表示，"居民增收"和"投资于人"将是扩大 内需、增强经济内生动能的重要抓手，应加快实施城乡居民增收计划，建议研究探索中央财政出资，对 主动为职工涨薪的企业给予适当补贴；加大国资收益上缴财政的力度，专项用于提高城乡居民养老金待 遇至农村低保水平（约600元/月）。 2025年中国经济呈现出三个"好于预期"，体现在中国出口的强劲韧性、资本市场的显著走强以及经 ...

报告概要 《通往2026：中国消费者趋势前瞻报告》由尼尔森IQ发布，深入剖析了中国消费市场在未来几年的演变路径与核心动力。报告指出，中国经济呈现稳中有 进态势，消费对GDP增长的贡献持续提升，但消费者信心仍需加强。尽管在政策推动下经济逐步复苏，仍有约四成消费者持谨慎支出态度，显示出对个人财 务状况"乐观但审慎"的复杂心态。 当前，中国消费者的核心诉求已从单纯物质满足，转向对"经济繁荣"与"内心幸福"的双重追求，"过好自己的日子"成为普遍心声。在消费行为上，呈现"功 能质量奠基、健康便捷乘势、体验终成归途"三位一体的特征。消费者不仅关注产品基础功能与价格促销，更愿意为健康、便捷及优质体验支付溢价，这标 志着消费决策正向更综合的价值评价体系演进。 报告特别聚焦不同世代的消费差异，描绘出一幅清晰的代际消费图景： 报告预览 婴儿潮一代正从"基础型养老"迈向"享受型养老"，乐于为丰富生活体验、科技适老产品买单。品牌需以针对性、专业化产品与其建立信任，赋予其"魅 力化"的晚年生活定义。 X世代作为"务实担当"，崇尚精简高效与长期主义。他们青睐品质扎实、回归本质的产品，并注重品牌文化内涵与本土情怀，例如百雀羚的"科技新草 ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of public relations (PR) in consumer goods companies has surpassed that of direct advertising spending, as neglecting PR can lead to severe brand crises and losses [6][9][32] Group 1: The Shift in Consumer Goods Management - Many consumer goods executives believe that having a good product is sufficient, but this mindset is outdated in the current media environment [2][4] - Companies face rapid backlash from the public due to minor issues, such as packaging or labor disputes, which can lead to significant financial losses [5][9] - The lack of respect for public opinion and inadequate communication strategies can result in catastrophic consequences for brands [5][9] Group 2: Financial Implications of PR - A budget of 10 million yuan in advertising may yield 100 million yuan in gross merchandise value (GMV), but a PR crisis can incur losses far exceeding that amount [7][9] - Direct sales losses from a crisis can include returns, consumer boycotts, and platform delistings, while indirect losses can affect brand trust and employee morale [9] - Investing in PR builds long-term consumer trust, which is more valuable than short-term advertising gains [9][10] Group 3: Media Relations and Budgeting - Many executives mistakenly view media spending as a form of extortion rather than a necessary investment for professional services [10][13] - Proper media investment should focus on reputable outlets that provide in-depth analysis and have a strong audience trust [13][20] - Establishing good relationships with influential media can be crucial during a crisis, as they are more likely to provide fair coverage [22][30] Group 4: The Role of Content in Crisis Management - Long-form media, such as articles on public platforms, can provide deeper analysis and context during crises, unlike short videos that may oversimplify issues [14][15] - Companies should balance their media strategies by using short videos for daily engagement while relying on in-depth articles for brand building and crisis management [16] Group 5: Building Relationships Before Crises - Companies often prioritize immediate sales over building long-term media relationships, which can leave them vulnerable during crises [18][20] - Establishing genuine connections with media and KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) is essential for effective crisis management [25][26] - Companies should invest time and resources in nurturing these relationships to ensure support during challenging times [21][26] Group 6: Leadership's Role in PR - The involvement of company leadership in PR is critical for understanding media dynamics and ensuring that PR is prioritized within the organization [28][30] - Leaders should elevate PR to a strategic priority, enabling quick decision-making during crises and fostering a culture of awareness among all employees [30][31] - Every employee's actions can impact the brand's reputation, making it essential for leadership to instill a collective responsibility for public relations [31]

编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 报告显示，2025年中国出国参办展的专业展项目和企业数量双双提升。从各行业出国展项目数量来看， 机械、交通运输物流、纺织服装及皮革制品三大行业稳居前三位，消费品、五金工具等贴近终端市场的 行业参展热度显著提升，新能源、医疗保健、汽车零配件等行业引领出海新趋势。 此外，中国赴境外不同国家参展办展的行业呈现差异化布局。机械、五金工具等行业展会项目，重点布 局德国、美国、俄罗斯、墨西哥；纺织服装、消费品等终端产品行业，聚焦美国、日本、欧洲等消费市 场，以及越南、印度尼西亚等人口红利市场；交通运输物流、建筑装饰行业，重点布局土耳其、哈萨克 斯坦、阿联酋等区域物流枢纽或基建需求旺盛国家；医疗保健、信息通讯等技术密集型行业，优先布局 德国、美国、日本等技术先进国家。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 报告称2025年中国出国展项目数量延续增长态势 中新社武汉1月23日电 (记者 武一力)由中国贸促会研究院组织编制的《中国展览经济发展报告2025》23 日在武汉发布。根据报告，2025年中国出国展项目数量延续增长态势，参办展1259项，覆盖57个国家和 地区。 具体来看，2025年中国在亚洲 ...

来源：法律先生 哪个律所，坐上了2025年香港IPO的头把交椅？ 不是魔圈所，也不是白鞋所，而是一家中国律所。 截至2026年1月19日，港交所手里压着331宗仍在排队的IPO申请。 按在手项目量算，竞天公诚以161宗断层领先，几乎是第二名的两倍；金杜约82 宗位列第二；通商紧随其后。 前十名里，只有一家外资所，总部在英国的Clifford Chance（高伟绅律师事务所）。 香港IPO，已经是中资律所的主场，可放在三年前，这几乎是不可想象的画面。 | | 2025年 | 2024年 | A股证券交易所 | 香港联合交易所 20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 15% | | | 第1位 | 香港联合交易所 | 印度国家证券交易所 | (2024:15%) | (2024:10%) | | | 343亿美元 | 203亿美元 | | | | 第2位 | 纽约证券交易所 | 纳斯达克证券交易所 | 2025年 | | | | 203亿美元 | 175亿美元 | | | | | | | | 全球 | | | 纳斯达克证券交易所 | 纽约证券交易所 | | 量资 ...

The big question in this AIdriven bull market now in year four is this still a starters only rally where the mega caps do most of the work or is a bench finally scoring. Relative strength is one of the cleanest ways to check that and that's what we're digging into in today's stocks in translation. Now relative strength is simple.You take one price and divide it by another price. Do that for each day's close in two different markets and you'll get one line that goes up, goes down, or goes sideways over time. ...

1 月 21 日，第一财经、应帆科技正式发布 "2025 中国消费品牌智能创新大调查 " 研究成果，重 磅首发 《 2025 中国消费品牌智能创新白皮书》 ，并同步揭晓 " Growth50·2025 中国消费年度 智能创新领导品牌 " 及各项代表案例，全景式展现中国创新消费新潮。上海广播电视台（上海文广 集团）副台长、副总裁，第一财经党委书记、董事长，应帆科技董事长李蓉表示， " 当前，千行百 业都已进入 ' 智能驱动 ' 阶段，本次大调查为消费品牌的智能创新提供切实的参照系与行动指南， 是第一财经消费生态圈建设的关键举措。 " 2025 中国消费品牌 智能创新大调查 Growth50-2025 中国消费 年度智能创新领导品牌 注:按首字母排序 安克创新 A 安琪 霸王茶姬 B 珀菜雅 波司登 回望过去几年，消费市场数度变迁。应帆科技旗下第一财经商业数据中心（ CBNData ）作为消费 领域的长期观察者，已连续四年发起 " 中国消费品牌增长力大调查 " ，从新消费元年的 " 看长 " 到震荡时期的 " 向真 " ，从不确定环境下的 " 应变 " 到审视初衷的 " 塑心 " ，持续探寻中国消费 的发展脉络。 ...

国务院新闻办公室于2026年1月21日（星期三）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请工业和信息化部 副部长张云明，工业和信息化部新闻发言人、运行监测协调局局长陶青，工业和信息化部新 闻发言人、信息通信发展司司长谢存介绍2025年工业和信息化发展成效，并答记者问。 发布会上介绍，2025年规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，制造业增加值占GDP比重保持稳定， 制造业规模有望连续16年保持全球第一。 2025年，工信部着力推进科技创新和产业创新深度融合，深入实施关键核心技术攻关，产业基础 再造工程，重大技术装备攻关工程。人工智能为工业经济增长注入强劲动力，工业机器人产量同 比增长28%，新能源汽车新车销量达1649万辆，同比增长28.2%。新兴领域投资增势良好，航 空、航天器及设备制造等行业投资实现两位数增长。 发布会上介绍，我国6G第一阶段技术试验形成超300项关键技术储备，近期已经启动第二阶段6G 技术试验。 5G和千兆光网融入97个国民经济大类中的91个，工业互联网实现41个工业大类全覆盖，为经济社 会发展注入更多活力。 来看具体内容： 工信部：支持地方因地制宜建设未来产业，加大政府投资基金投资力度 张云明表示，" ...

胡润瞪羚企业目前分布在43个国家或地区，比去年增加了5个，分布在220个城市，比前一年的204个城 市有所增加。超过150个国家或地区仍然没有已知的胡润瞪羚。美国和中国分别以302家和278家胡润瞪 羚领先，占全球总数的71%。英国以36家位居第三，减少9家，印度以34家紧随其后，增加3家。 从各大洲来看，亚洲超过北美，成为全球创造最多瞪羚的地区，其次是欧洲。从城市来看，旧金山成为 全球胡润瞪羚之都，其后依次是上海、北京、纽约、深圳和伦敦。 榜单显示，3家长沙企业上榜，分别为视比特机器人（所属行业：机器人）、三顿半（所属行业：食品 饮料）、美迈科技（所属行业：消费品）。 | | | | | | | 美国、中国和世界其他地区瞪羚企业数量最多的城市 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国城市 瞪羚数量 | | | 中国城市 | | | 世界真他地区城市 瞪羚数量 | | | 1- | 旧等山 | 92 (+29) | | 1- | 上海 | 73 (+6) | 1 - | 伦敦 | 28 (-7) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of proactive fiscal policies aimed at promoting high-quality economic and social development, with a focus on increasing overall fiscal expenditure and optimizing its structure for better efficiency and stronger economic momentum [2][14]. Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - In 2026, the overall fiscal expenditure will continue to increase, ensuring that the fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and expenditure remain at necessary levels, with a commitment to "only increase, not decrease" [2][14]. - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of one percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [3][4]. Debt Management - The government maintains a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the average of G20 countries, despite increasing deficits and debt issuance [4]. - In 2025, measures will be taken to replace 2 trillion yuan of hidden debt and allocate 800 billion yuan in new special bonds to support local government finances, thereby reducing the average interest cost of local debts by over 2.5 percentage points [6][7]. Support for Consumption and Investment - A special long-term government bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 will support consumption and promote the sale of green, low-carbon, and intelligent products, with an expected sales boost of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [5]. - Policies will be introduced to stimulate consumption through personal consumption loans and support for new consumption models, as well as adjustments to tax refund policies for duty-free shops [5]. Support for SMEs and Innovation - A new loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises will focus on 14 key industrial chains, including new energy, automotive, and medical equipment [8][9]. - The government will provide risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions, mitigating investor losses [10]. Pension and Social Security - In 2025, the central government will allocate approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for basic pension insurance subsidies, with a 2% increase in pension levels for retirees [11]. Tax System and Market Development - The government aims to improve the local tax system to support the construction of a unified national market, including clarifying fiscal responsibilities and enhancing tax regulations [12]. Technological Innovation and Investment - The government will support the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund to invest in early-stage, small, long-term, and hard technology projects, promoting innovation in key industries [19]. - Financial support will be provided for technology innovation loans, with the central bank offering re-loan support to facilitate the transformation of manufacturing and digitalization of SMEs [20][21]. Export Tax Policy Changes - The cancellation of export tax rebates for solar and electronic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to promote efficient resource utilization and address "involution" in competition [17].