Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI: Opened at $102.6, closed at $105.01, with a high of $105.36, a low of $99.43, a daily increase of 5.39%, and a trading volume of 34.96 million hands [5] - Brent: Opened at $107.75, closed at $108.89, with a high of $109.46, a low of $106.10, a daily increase of 3.39%, and a trading volume of 49.82 million hands [5] - SC: Opened at 755.1 yuan/barrel, closed at 740.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 766.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 725 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 2.94%, and a trading volume of 9.17 million hands [5] - News: Iran's parliament approved tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, and 3 Chinese cargo ships passed through the strait. Trump expressed willingness to end the Iran war if the strait remains closed [5] - US strategy: The US will suspend strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 while increasing military deployment in the Middle East, with the situation likely to escalate [6] - Supply situation: The Strait of Hormuz transportation is interrupted, and Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production by about 8 million barrels per day, leading to tight supply [6] - Operation suggestion: Considering the high volatility of oil prices driven by news, it is recommended to consider a bullish call spread [6] Group 3: Industry News - Kpler: If the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait is interrupted, the time for crude oil to be transported to Asia may double [7] - EU: EU countries should postpone non - urgent refinery maintenance [7] - US Treasury Secretary: The daily shortage in the oil market is between 10 million and 12 million barrels [7] - Iran: The discount on Iranian oil has decreased significantly, and the average selling price has increased [7] - India: India has no plan to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz for crude oil loading [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][14][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn affects inflation, interest rates, and bond yields. The global economy is facing downward pressure due to factors such as high oil prices and the US's wrong policies [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Logic - Trump is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Iran's parliament has passed a management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, giving the Iranian armed forces a control role [1][2]. - There is a 40% probability that the conflict will continue until June, and if so, oil prices may exceed $200 per barrel, and US gasoline may reach $7 per gallon [2]. - The IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release speed is no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [2][3]. - Analysts from Nomura and Goldman Sachs have warned that traders face extremely high risks in the current environment [2]. Impact on Financial Markets - The Fed Chairman's statement that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the context of an energy shock has alleviated market concerns about the Fed tightening monetary policy to curb inflation [1]. - High - end believes that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates, referring to the situation in 1990 when the Fed cut rates during an oil supply shock [1]. - The decoupling of bonds and oil has become a key signal, with the market logic shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [1]. - Global central banks are selling US Treasuries at the fastest pace in more than a decade, and the yen is under pressure [1]. - The Nasdaq futures have broken through support levels, and the AI - induced industry substitution and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling, which may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the changing situation in the Middle East on global energy markets, particularly the rise in oil prices, which have increased by over 30% since March, affecting economies and related industries worldwide [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts, indicating that high oil prices may persist in the long term [2]. - The firm predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $110 per barrel for March-April, up from a previous estimate of $98 per barrel, representing a 62% increase compared to the average price for the entire year of 2025 [4]. - For 2026, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts to an average of $85 per barrel for Brent and $79 per barrel for WTI, with fourth-quarter predictions of $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - The upward revision in oil price forecasts is driven by two main factors: the impact on commercial oil inventories and the market's risk adjustment regarding effective spare production capacity [4]. - The firm emphasizes that during supply disruptions, the market must increase risk premiums to mitigate the risk of demand shrinkage due to long-term supply interruptions [4]. Group 3: Impact on China and Asia - Goldman Sachs highlights the potential effects of rising oil prices on China and the Asian economy, noting that while China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 50% of its oil imports, its overall dependence on imported energy is lower [7]. - The firm expects that the sharp rise in oil and gas prices will increase inflation levels in China, helping to end the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [7]. - The inflation forecasts for 2026 have been raised to 1% for both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PPI, up from earlier predictions of 0.6% and -0.7%, respectively [7]. Group 4: Export Implications - Low-income emerging economies, lacking substantial oil inventories and fiscal capacity to subsidize energy costs, are likely to be most affected by high oil prices, potentially slowing China's exports to these regions in the coming quarters [8]. - However, in the medium term, the extreme volatility in energy prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts may prompt oil-importing countries to focus on enhancing energy supply security [8]. - China is positioned to benefit from increased global demand for electric vehicles, batteries, and power generation equipment post-2027, as it leads in these critical industries [8].

Core Viewpoint - Companies must adopt a "wartime mindset" to effectively prepare for and respond to unpredictable risks, including geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1][4][14]. Group 1: Importance of Preparedness - The practice of developing contingency plans has become essential for companies facing various crises, such as military conflicts and pandemics [1][3]. - Shell, as a pioneer, integrated systematic contingency planning into its core decision-making processes, which proved beneficial during the oil crisis of the 1970s [3][4]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the need for companies to establish "wartime command centers" to manage crises effectively [5][6]. Group 2: Current Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty index, which measures economic policy instability, has reached record levels since 2018, indicating a challenging environment for businesses [6][7]. - The current geopolitical landscape, characterized by a lack of strong global leadership, complicates the ability of companies to navigate economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Strategic Adaptations - Companies are increasingly focusing on building inventory buffers and seeking alternative suppliers to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [9][10]. - The potential for "stagflation" due to rising oil prices and shipping costs poses significant risks, including slowed economic growth and increased inflation expectations [11][12]. Group 4: Lessons from the Pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped leadership styles, emphasizing the importance of transparency and vulnerability in leadership during crises [13][14]. - Companies are encouraged to remember the lessons learned from the pandemic, particularly the need for adaptable and authentic leadership in times of uncertainty [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted the crude oil market, with the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz being the main factor. The duration of the strait's interruption is the key to determining the future risk premium level of oil prices [74]. - If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts, and OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day cannot be effectively released [23][36]. - The release of the IEA's strategic petroleum reserve can provide short - term supply buffering, but the inventory distribution is uneven, and different markets have different capabilities to withstand the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz [42]. - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth, while South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly [62][70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Middle East Oil Export and Strait of Hormuz Impact - The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 27% of global crude oil and petroleum product exports. In 2025, the daily transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the strait reached 1,491 million barrels and 332 million barrels respectively. The major Middle East oil - producing countries are highly dependent on the strait for oil exports [5][7]. - 83% of the crude oil and petroleum products exported through the Strait of Hormuz flow to Asia. Crude oil exports are concentrated in Asia (86%), while petroleum product exports are relatively more dispersed, with Asia accounting for 61%, and Europe and Africa each accounting for 16% [8][12]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. In the four weeks before the conflict, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was at a low level. In the week of March 29, the crude oil transportation volume through the strait was about 7% of the normal level [23]. Bypass Routes for Oil Export - Some countries can use over - land pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for partial exports. Saudi Arabia's "East - West Oil Pipeline" has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day after expansion, and the estimated stable loading capacity of Yanbu Port is 4.3 - 4.5 million barrels per day, with a maximum export capacity of 5 - 5.5 million barrels per day. However, the south - bound route of Yanbu Port passes through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and some oil tankers may face the risk of attack by the Houthi armed forces [15]. - The ADCOP pipeline in the UAE has an estimated capacity of 1.5 - 1.8 million barrels per day. Since 2024, the increase in the pipeline's utilization rate has led to an increase in the crude oil export volume of Fujairah Port to about 1.15 million barrels per day, accounting for about 33% of the UAE's total exports. However, the high utilization rate of the pipeline limits its remaining capacity to divert the transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and Fujairah Port has been reported to have been attacked multiple times since the conflict [15]. - Iraq used to export about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day through the Ceyhan Port in Turkey, which was once interrupted. Since last October, the export volume has recovered to 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Recently, due to Iraq's production cuts, the loading at the Botas Ceyhan terminal has also been affected [15]. Iran's Oil Export Situation - 94% of Iran's crude oil exports come from Kharg Island. Although the military facilities on the island were attacked by the United States, the export terminal was not damaged, and the loading volume has remained at a normal level since the conflict. Iran's crude oil export volume is expected to remain stable at about 1.6 million barrels per day, and the total amount of Iranian crude oil at sea is 180 million barrels, with the floating storage inventory of those floating for more than 15 days dropping to about 24 million barrels [18]. Impact on Oil Production and Supply - The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts due to the depletion of on - land storage capacity. Iraq and Kuwait are the most affected due to the lack of bypass capabilities, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also announced different degrees of production restrictions [36]. - The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz will also result in about 3 million barrels per day of OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity being unable to be effectively released to the market, further reducing the supply buffer [36]. Global Oil Inventory and Product Inventory - After the global seaborne crude oil in - transit volume decreases, the consumption of on - land inventory will accelerate. As of the end of March, the total global on - land inventory (excluding countries along the Persian Gulf) was about 2.8 billion barrels, and the overall level of global on - land crude oil inventory is not high [42]. - The gasoline inventory in Europe and the United States is slightly higher than the five - year average, while the diesel inventory level is relatively low. The price of middle distillates has risen more sharply after the conflict, and Europe faces a greater risk of supply shortage due to its relatively high dependence on aviation kerosene and diesel from the Middle East [45]. IEA's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release - As of the end of December 2025, the IEA's government inventory was 1.245 billion barrels, and the industry inventory was 2.826 billion barrels. On March 11, the IEA announced the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves, about 400 million barrels [51]. - The United States plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil SPR in the form of "swap" within 120 days (1.435 million barrels per day) and requires enterprises to replenish the reserves in full by March 2028. Europe plans to release 34.4 million barrels of crude oil and 73.1 million barrels of petroleum products, and Asia - Pacific countries plan to release 65.2 million barrels of crude oil and 43.4 million barrels of petroleum products [51]. Asian Market and Sanction Oil - Asian countries generally have a high degree of dependence on crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf, and the seaborne import proportion of major consumers is over 40%. In the case of continuous supply interruption in the Middle East, the problem of supply mismatch in the market segmented by sanctioned oil may become more prominent [56]. - Even if the United States temporarily relaxes sanctions, the settlement problem of sanctioned oil, especially Iranian crude oil, may still limit buyers' purchases. The threat of drone attacks on Russian ports has also increased, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect Russia's export volume [61]. Long - term Supply Growth Potential - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth. If the long - term oil price center moves up, the growth rate of U.S. production may accelerate. The average oil price required for profitable drilling in the Permian region is 67 US dollars per barrel [67]. - South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly. Brazil's annual crude oil production is expected to rise to 4.2 million barrels per day, with an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day [70]. Oil Price Outlook - The passage of the Strait of Hormuz will be the decisive factor in determining the future risk premium level of oil prices. The interruption of the strait has had a substantial impact on the market supply, and the duration of the interruption is the key to testing energy security [74]. - In the short - term, the oil price may remain highly volatile as the expectations of "progress in negotiations" and "escalation of military operations" alternate. If the conflict ends quickly, the risk premium will significantly decline [74]. - In the long - term, the restoration of supply in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East is expected to be gradual, and the oil price fluctuation range is expected to fall to 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel, with the center higher than the pre - conflict level [74].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and may continue to rise in the short term due to increased geopolitical risks on the supply side, strong Asian refining activities on the demand side, and stable inventory with potential supply risks that could inhibit inventory accumulation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 30, 2026, the price of the SC main contract rose from 740.8 yuan/barrel on March 27 to 763.5 yuan/barrel, a 3.06% increase. The WTI and Brent main contract prices remained stable at 101.18 and 106.29 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened from 0.91 US dollars/barrel to 4.15 US dollars/barrel, a 356.04% increase, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 6.02 US dollars/barrel to 9.26 US dollars/barrel, a 53.82% increase. The Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 5.11 US dollars/barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread rose slightly from 16.9 yuan/barrel to 17.9 yuan/barrel, a 5.92% increase [1]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks. Houthi attacks on Israel and the US warning to Iran have increased concerns about supply disruptions. Vietnam's refineries are seeking to diversify their supply sources [2]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is strong, mainly driven by Asian refining activities. Vietnam's refineries have high production targets and capacity utilization, and India's export tax exemption may stimulate export demand. Asian naphtha refining profits have reached record highs [2]. - **Inventory Side**: On March 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3,511,000 barrels, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 49,960 tons, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 35,600 tons [2]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: The SC price increased, while WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, and other prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened significantly, while the Brent - WTI spread remained stable. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and most other assets remained unchanged, and the RMB exchange rate had a 0.04% change [5]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU and LU prices increased, while some international fuel oil futures prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Paper Prices**: Some paper prices were not available. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.90%. - **Inventory**: Some Platts prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On March 30, Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical is negotiating to buy Russian crude oil, will increase purchases of African and US crude oil, and has secured 2.3 million barrels of Vietnamese crude oil for May and June production. It will produce 2 million tons of fuel in the second quarter with a capacity utilization rate of 123% and aims to produce 8.3 million tons of petroleum products in 2026 [7][8]. b. Demand - India exempts refineries in special economic zones from export taxes on diesel and aviation kerosene, and Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel policy [9]. c. Inventory - An oil storage tank in Haifa, Israel, was attacked, but the loss was minor. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased [10][11]. d. Market Information - The market's concern about long - term supply disruptions in the Middle East has increased, pushing Asian naphtha refining profits to a record high. Asian buyers are seeking alternative supply pricing mechanisms. Vietnam's refinery will put new oil storage tanks into use in May [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and refinery operating rates [13][15][17].

Core Insights - Average US fuel prices have surpassed $4 a gallon for the first time in four years, rising from $2.98 a month ago to nearly $4.02, indicating significant inflationary pressure on consumers [1] - The surge in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran, with Brent crude reaching $115.48 a barrel [3] Group 1: Fuel Prices - The nationwide average fuel price has climbed to almost $4.02 per gallon, marking a significant increase from $2.98 just a month prior [1] - In California, the average fuel price is notably higher at $5.89 per gallon, while Washington state averages $5.35 per gallon, reflecting regional disparities in fuel costs [2] Group 2: Political Implications - Rising fuel prices historically pose challenges for the incumbent administration, with Trump facing critical electoral pressures as midterm elections approach [2] - The administration has attempted to downplay the negative impacts of rising oil prices, suggesting that higher prices could benefit the US economy due to its status as the largest oil producer [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, highlighting the complexities of the situation, including military actions, negotiation attempts, and market reactions to these developments [3][4][8]. Geopolitical Tensions - The US-Iran conflict is currently in a "fighting while negotiating" stalemate, with frequent signals for ceasefire and negotiations, but the information remains highly chaotic [3]. - Iran has shown unexpected resilience in its defense and counterattacks, while the US continues to increase military presence in the Middle East [3]. - The market is experiencing volatility due to these geopolitical risks, with oil prices surging since March, and expectations of interest rate hikes affecting various commodities [3]. Market Reactions - The article notes that since the onset of the conflict, oil prices have risen significantly, with expectations of inflation impacting the market dynamics for various commodities [3][9]. - There is a noted divergence in the performance of different asset classes, with precious metals and risk assets showing mixed trends, indicating market concerns about stagflation and recession [3][9]. Oil and Commodity Dynamics - The potential for a prolonged conflict could lead to significant disruptions in oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which could reduce oil exports from the Middle East by over 50% [7]. - The article emphasizes that the current rise in energy and chemical prices is driven not only by geopolitical factors but also by supply chain disruptions and production constraints [10]. Strategic Considerations - The article suggests that the US may face a dilemma in its military strategy, balancing between maintaining its global dominance and avoiding a prolonged conflict that could exacerbate inflation and complicate policy adjustments [8]. - The potential for a regional war is increasing, with April 6 being highlighted as a critical date that could influence the trajectory of the conflict [8]. Commodity Price Trends - The relationship between oil prices and other commodities, such as precious metals and base metals, is discussed, indicating that rising oil prices could suppress copper prices due to their interconnected market dynamics [9]. - The article also highlights the importance of monitoring the duration of the conflict, as prolonged tensions could lead to significant shifts in commodity pricing and market behavior [10]. Production and Supply Chain Impacts - The article outlines that the chemical sector may face challenges in returning to previous price levels due to ongoing logistical issues and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict [10]. - It also notes that production profits in the chemical sector are expected to improve due to a balance in supply and demand, influenced by the ongoing geopolitical situation [10].