每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 （一）重要市场新闻 1、美股三大指数集体收涨，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.16%创收盘新高，纳斯达克综合指 数涨0.26%。谷歌收涨1.09%，苹果收涨0.34%，谷歌证实与苹果达成一项为期多年的协议，将为苹果的 人工智能技术提供支持，其中包括语音助手"Siri"。Meta收跌1.7%，公司启动名为"Meta Compute"的全 新顶级战略项目。热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.26%，阿里巴巴涨超10%，哔哩哔 哩、小鹏汽车涨超8%，百度、微博涨超6%，蔚来、网易、京东涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%。 2、国际油价12日上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨38美分，收于每桶 59.50美元，涨幅为0.64%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨53美分，收于每桶63.87美元，涨幅 为0.84%。纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.84%，报4592.13美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨2.28%，报4603.30 美元/盎司；沪银夜盘收涨7.23%，报21268元人民币/千克，一度达到21518元。WTI 2月原油期货收涨 0.38美 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 A 股成交额 3.64 万亿元创历史新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-13 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国司法部对美联储主席开启"刑事调查" 美联储独立性再次受到挑战，但美股市场风险偏好继续温和回 升，多数板块均录得上涨。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股成交额 3.64 万亿元创历史新高 综 A 股量能放大，但盘后部分上市公司表示主营业务与商业航天等 热点题材无关，为市场降温。我们认为监管层面出手概率较大， 市场自我实现后的调整是接下来重要风险点。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 鲍威尔：调查事关美联储独立性 报 贵金属再度大涨，美联储主席鲍威尔被提起诉讼，引发市场对 美联储独立性的担忧进一步增加，特朗普对降息的执念滥用法 律的行为引发市场广泛担忧，共和党议员公开反对特朗普。 农产品（豆粕） 上周油厂豆粕库存下降 USDA 月度供需报告及季度库存报告利空，CBOT 大豆大幅下 跌。由于上周油厂开机偏低，而豆粕提货量周环比增加，上周 油厂豆粕库存下降 12.6 万吨至 104.4 万吨。 油价上涨，伊朗供应不确定性导致风险溢价上升。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On January 12, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with the main contract for silver rising over 14% and the main contract for carbon lithium and tin hitting the daily limit with increases of 9.00% and 8.00% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1661.85 points, up 55.54 points or 3.46% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2293.15 points, also up 76.64 points or 3.46% [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector remained active, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, with silver leading the market with a 14.42% increase [2] - The strong demand from AI and new energy developments, along with supply constraints and geopolitical disturbances, continued to attract investment in metals [2] - Despite increased margin requirements for silver futures by several exchanges, the market for silver remained robust, with expectations of continued upward price movement [2] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Sector Insights - The energy and chemical sectors were also buoyed by geopolitical concerns, with WTI crude oil opening strong above $59 per barrel due to fears of U.S. intervention in Iran [3] - Domestic chemical products saw widespread gains, with styrene rising over 3% and other products like polypropylene and PX also increasing by over 1% [3] - The shipping market experienced a rebound in bullish sentiment, with the main contract for the European shipping index rising over 11% [3] Group 4: Specific Commodity Challenges - The main contract for polysilicon opened high but fell significantly by the end of the day, down 2.89%, due to regulatory pressures and changes in market sentiment [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil did not follow the upward trend of crude oil, closing down 1.32%, as supply-side pressures continued to impact its price [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various market commodities in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, showed stability in some categories while experiencing fluctuations in others, particularly with noticeable increases in vegetable and fruit prices [1][2][3] Group 2 - Prices of staple foods and secondary products remained stable, with examples including salt at 2 yuan/kg, sugar at 5 yuan/bag, and tofu at 3 yuan/kg, showing little change compared to the previous month [1] - Grain and oil prices also maintained stability, with prices for items like noodles at 2.4 yuan/kg and corn flour at 3 yuan/kg remaining consistent with the previous month [1] - Production material prices exhibited mixed trends, with a slight decrease in gasoline and diesel prices averaging a drop of about 2.7%, while fertilizer prices increased by approximately 6.2% [1] - Raw grain prices saw a slight increase, with wheat and corn prices averaging a rise of about 0.9% [2] - Prices for live pigs and piglets experienced a decline, with live pig prices around 12.6 yuan/kg and piglet prices at 22 yuan/kg, reflecting an average decrease of 3.3% [2] - Meat and egg prices also saw a slight decrease, with average prices for various meats and eggs dropping by about 1.2% [2] - Fruit prices showed a significant increase, with an average rise of 11.3%, including apples at 5 yuan/kg and bananas at 2 yuan/kg [3] - Vegetable prices began to rise, with an average increase of 10.2%, particularly notable in eggplant and green chili prices, which rose by 60% and 100% respectively [3]

今日的市场，除了炸裂，也想不到其他合适的词了，看几块热点。 第一，成交额破3.6万亿，创历史新高。 今晚有点事儿，提前简单聊几句哈。 大家关心的那2瓶茅子，我明天再统计结果吧，今日收盘点位是4165.29，同志们可以自行看下，如果有十分接近的，可以评论区先插个眼，到时 候方便我统计 。 说回市场。 史上最强开门红，还在继续。 上周，A股开门红单周的日均成交是2.8万亿，今天直接干到了3.5万亿，下图，是A股有史以来，单日成交额的排名，今日直接破了去年10月8日的高点， 创历史新高了。 去年10月8日，可是攒了7天的热度的一次性释放，对比之下可见，今天的热度有多夸张了。 对了，再给大家一个数字作为对比——作为T+0的市场， 美股 去年上半年的日均成交额差不多也就3.4万亿人民币左右，大A作为T+1的市场，竟已经反超 之了。 ...... 往后看，场外等着入场的资金体量，依然是比较可观的，具体可以回顾我们《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》第三大段的观点： " 重视股市在大类资产中的 " 相对性价比 " ，长期限定存的到期潮是一种 " 周期的结果，固收加的大发展符合历史规律。 " 第二，商业航天，继续炸裂。 今天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and breaking through the 4100-point mark. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity. The overall economic climate in China is improving, with the CPI and PPI showing positive trends, and the PMI indices rising above the expansion range [15]. - Different commodity futures have various trends and investment suggestions. For example, in the black sector, it is expected to be in a short - term shock and medium - long - term bottom - building state; in the agricultural product sector, different products such as cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [18][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council's Anti - monopoly and Anti - unfair Competition Committee Office will investigate and evaluate the market competition in the food delivery platform service industry. Meituan, Taobao Flash Delivery, and JD Delivery will cooperate actively [8]. - China declared multiple satellite constellation plans to the ITU in the last week of 2025, with a total scale of over 200,000 satellites [8]. - The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in January 2026 is completely dashed. The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, reducing the possibility of an interest rate cut [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, including loan discount policies and risk - sharing mechanisms [9]. - In December 2025, China's CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. The CPI and PPI both increased month - on - month [9]. - The regulatory authorities have issued new policy guidance on real estate financing, allowing loans for projects on the "white list" to be extended for up to 5 years [9]. - China has made a major breakthrough in the extraction and separation technology of salt lake lithium resources, improving the lithium ion recovery rate and reducing costs and energy consumption [9]. - DeepSeek plans to launch a new flagship AI model V4 around the Chinese New Year in mid - February, which shows better performance in code generation than existing mainstream models [10]. - The AGI - Next Frontier Summit believes that the competition in large models has shifted from the "Chat" to the "Agent" stage [10]. - Fund companies and sales institutions have received a notice on the implementation of regulations on the sales fees of publicly offered securities investment funds, with three key points attracting attention [10]. - The price of storage chips has skyrocketed, and tech giants are competing for DRAM supplies. The price of 8GB DDR4 memory has increased by more than 5 times in a year [11]. - The US Supreme Court has not made a ruling on Trump's tariffs, and the next announcement is on January 14. The government is prepared to re - implement tariffs if necessary [11]. - Trump has cancelled the second wave of military strikes against Venezuela, maintained the deployment of US ships, and plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities to lower mortgage rates [11]. - Trump has called for setting a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year starting from January 20, but the feasibility is uncertain [12]. - Trump discussed with oil company executives how to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and announced that the US will start refining and selling up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider following the trend, but be cautious about chasing highs due to the recent large short - term gains. The A - share market has been rising strongly, and the economic climate is improving, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock platform [14][15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The money market is balanced, and the bond market sentiment has declined. The central bank's monetary policy shows a retreat trend, and fiscal subsidy policies for consumption have been announced [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Spiral Steel Rebar and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is no new demand - side policy, and the supply - side policy interference for the steel industry is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits. - Fundamentally, the steel demand is under seasonal pressure, and the supply is relatively stable with low profits. The inventory has started to accumulate, and in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and be in a medium - long - term bottom - building state [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. The supply side of coal has disturbances, and the downstream demand support has declined. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase, and the rebound space may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are still bearish, but the cost side may have a phased positive impact. It is recommended to control positions, hold short positions in silicomanganese at high levels, and temporarily observe ferrosilicon [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to new production capacity and cost - side expectations. - For glass, a long - holding strategy or partial profit - taking at high prices can be considered. The market sentiment has been boosted, and attention should be paid to cold repair and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand is still resilient but is expected to weaken compared to December. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [24][25]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - The fundamentals of lead are weak, with low downstream demand. Although the lead price may rebound before delivery, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation dragging down the price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [26]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, but the production resumption expectation is reduced due to mine disruptions. The long - term demand is positive, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [27]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - The downstream demand has phased policy - driven support for export rush. The previous oversupply expectation needs time to verify the turn, and the disk is expected to fluctuate strongly but is still under upward pressure [28]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is possible to try to buy at low prices with cautious positions. The market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern after the regulatory meeting, and the export tax - rebate cancellation policy may drive an export rush in the first quarter [28][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival restocking and declining开工 leads to a short - term downward trend. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and the next target price subsidy policy [32][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of both strong supply and demand. The price is under pressure but also supported, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar market still faces an oversupply situation [34][35]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 - 03 contracts of eggs are currently at a discount to the spot price and are driven by the short - term strength of the spot market. However, as the inventory of laying hens is still high and the post - holiday demand may decline, the upside space is limited. The futures contracts are in a near - strong and far - weak contango pattern [36]. 3.5.4 Apples - The supply side has the characteristics of "less quantity and poor quality" and low inventory, while the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products may remain stable. The market may show a strong trend if the demand decline is controlled during the Spring Festival [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The key to the price trend lies in the change of farmers' selling sentiment. Although there are some negative factors, the probability of a "panic selling" before the Spring Festival is low. Attention should be paid to the selling situation in March [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current market is in an oversupply situation, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales situation during the consumption peak season [39]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement. It is expected that large - scale enterprises will resume slaughter in the middle of the month, and the spot price may decline. The main futures contract should be shorted at high prices [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports, but the geopolitical situation in Iran has heated up again, bringing support to oil prices. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the geopolitical premium still exists [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical and macro factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand relationship has improved marginally, and the focus is on the Iranian situation and the potential substitution role of fuel oil [44]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to adopt a shock - trading strategy and beware of回调 risks [44][45]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The short - term international macro environment and trading system may increase capital participation, but the lack of obvious supply - demand contradictions may limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - long opportunities during回调 can be considered [45]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is under pressure due to the decline of downstream products and poor high - price transactions [46][47]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the inventory is still relatively high, and there is a possibility of further accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and long positions in far - month contracts can be gradually considered [48]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market follows the general trend of the commodity futures market and has weak fundamentals. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range shock strategy [49]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The short - term price fluctuation of asphalt may increase due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price of asphalt has stabilized after the increase [49][50]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the price will fluctuate with the cost. PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads can be considered. The supply - demand relationship of each product in the polyester chain shows different trends, and the overall rebound height is restricted by the terminal negative feedback [51]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the price of LPG has increased. The import cost provides support, and the demand is in the peak season. It still has some rebound momentum, but it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the rise [52][53]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the disk faces hedging pressure. However, the fundamentals are stable, and the external market price is strong, providing support for the domestic price. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the disk is expected to fluctuate [55]. 3.6.13 Urea - The coal price has increased, and the spot market trading of urea has weakened. After the price reduction, the trading of some factories is acceptable. The futures price maintains a shock trend [56].

2、英伟达将 AI4S 与大语言模型、具身智能并列为 AI 三大方向，利用 AI 从海量科学数据中发现新规律、 加速科学发现； 3、两部门：光伏相关产品出口退税率自 26 年 4 月 1 日起，从 9%下调到 0%。锂电产品出口退税率 26 年 4 月 1 日从 9%下调到 6%，27 年 1 月 1 日下调到 0%。 4、据央视新闻报道，多位知情美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普近日听取了关于对伊朗进行军事打击方 案的简报，正在认真考虑是否对伊朗发动打击。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/-0.12%/-0.32%/-1.20%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.39%/0.02%/-0.23%/-2.37%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.38%/-0.37%/-0.99%/-3.75%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.04%/-0.05%/0.02%/-0.35%。 【策略观点】 文字早评 2026/01/12 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商业航天：中国新增 20 万颗卫星申请，其中超 19 万颗卫星来自近期刚刚成立的无线电创新院； 年初增量资金入场，融资 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-12 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月非农增 5 万人不及预期 非农就业不及预期但维持韧性，1 月大概率暂停降息，市场风险 偏好维持高位。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指站上 4100 点，续创 10 年新高 综 尽管近期存在监管层面为市场降温的意向，但股市气势如虹， 放量大涨一举站上 4100 点。短期内，市场仍存上冲动能。监管 层面是否会出台力度更大的降温动作，是重要风向标。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 报 周五金价震荡收涨，表现偏强，美国 12 月非农就业数据喜忧参 半，市场对美联储的降息预期变化不大。地缘政治风险利多贵 金属，但 Bloomberg 商品指数调整尚未结束。 农产品（白糖） 印度糖厂本年度签署约 18 万吨糖出口合同 印度本榨季已签约出口 18 万吨糖，因国内糖价回调和卢比疲软。 印度糖出口的关键时间窗口在巴西新榨季开启前的 1-3 月份，预 计该国糖实际总出口量难以达到官方额度。 有色金属（铜） 力拓与嘉能可合并后将主导全球铜供应 宏观乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lack of a strict sequential pattern in the rotation of commodity markets during bull cycles, emphasizing that the performance of different sectors is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the fundamentals of the commodities themselves [2][18]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of Commodity Bull Markets - Historical reviews show that previous commodity bull markets do not follow a strict "gold first, silver follows, copper confirms, oil leads, and agriculture ends" rotation sequence [18]. - The analysis of four major commodity bull markets since 2000 indicates that agricultural products tend to perform strongly in the later stages of bull markets, exhibiting a lagging upward trend [18]. - Each commodity sector's performance order and intensity are fundamentally driven by unique macroeconomic environments (such as monetary policy and economic cycle phases) and their own fundamentals (supply, demand, inventory) [18]. Group 2: Current Market Sentiment and Trends - The current commodity market sentiment indicators are approaching an overheating warning line, suggesting an increased risk of short-term market corrections [20]. - Since June 2025, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into the commodity market, with a notable shift from precious metals and non-ferrous metals to other sectors [21][23]. - The current market structure shows a strength in non-ferrous and precious metals, while the black and chemical sectors are relatively weak, indicating a need for effective rotation to sustain upward momentum [24].