Group 1 - The A-share energy metal sector experienced a short-term decline, with Shengxin Lithium Energy dropping over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Rongjie Co., Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium also saw declines [1]

美国纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜库存首次突破40万短吨，因套利交易持续吸引铜流入美国。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价目前约为每吨10,780美元，而COMEX铜价约为每磅5美元，折合每吨约 11,023美元，这意味着向美国进行套利运输具有盈利空间。 库存激增始于3月，当时交易商争相在美国计划征收进口关税前将铜运往美国。但精炼铜最终获得了豁 免，免于8月1日生效的50%进口关税。 美国铜进口政策仍处于审查阶段，库存非但未见下降，反而持续攀升。交易商认为美国最终仍可能对精 炼铜进口征税，正为此在美国境内囤积金属以备不时之需。 美国地质调查局数据显示，2024年美国精炼铜消费量为158万吨，这意味着纽约商品交易所库存量相当 于该国年需求的近四分之一。 （文华综合） 交易所数据显示，截至11月21日，COMEX铜库存为402,876短吨（365,483吨），较今年初增逾三倍 后，已突破2003年1月创下的399,458短吨历史纪录。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 5.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 7.2%, reflects a state of market panic, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [2][6][7] - The Fear and Greed Index for both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index is currently at historical lows, indicating a possible short-term recovery in market sentiment [7][8] Market Analysis - The decline in the Hong Kong market is attributed to several factors: 1. Unexpected growth in U.S. employment numbers alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] 2. Concerns over high asset prices potentially leading to market corrections, which has dampened trading sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The report notes that the technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the Hang Seng Technology Index underperforming compared to other indices [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market trend due to: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [8] 2. Continuous support for the domestic technology sector through policy initiatives, which could attract long-term capital and enhance market activity [8] - Investment strategies suggested include: 1. Focusing on emerging technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [8] 2. Identifying scarce resources that may benefit from valuation premiums due to shifts in energy transition and geopolitical factors [8] 3. Monitoring sectors like insurance and brokerage, which may see increased activity as low-interest rates encourage more equity investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has experienced volatility following a peak in late October, with recent developments indicating a potential rebound due to changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After reaching a new high for copper contracts on October 30, the Shanghai copper futures entered a downward trend, but by November 24, prices rebounded to 86,080 yuan per ton [1]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 have renewed expectations for a rate cut in December, boosting market confidence [1][2]. - The copper price fluctuations are attributed to the Fed's internal divisions and the broader impact of liquidity pressures in global markets [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current tug-of-war within the Federal Reserve, between conservative and aggressive rate-cutting strategies, creates significant uncertainty for the market [3]. - There is an expectation that copper prices will rebound in the coming quarter, supported by a potential rate cut and the ongoing demand from sectors like AI and data centers [3][4]. - The rapid development of AI is anticipated to drive new demand for copper, particularly in hardware manufacturing and electrical transmission, contributing to future price support [4].

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 0.13% on November 24, with Luoping Zinc Electric leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] - Luoping Zinc Electric's stock price rose by 6.07% to 8.04, with a trading volume of 174,300 shares and a transaction value of 133 million [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 361 million from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 237 million [2][3] - Major stocks like Guocheng Mining and Xizang Zhuofeng saw significant declines, with Guocheng Mining down 10% to 24.02 [2] - The trading volume and transaction values for various stocks in the industrial metal sector varied, with notable declines in several companies [2][3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex scenario of "falling prices and increasing volatility" [2] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical period for market restructuring and for companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness, particularly with the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures [2] Event Details - The event organized by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will take place on December 4, 2025, in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, from 15:00 to 17:00 [3] - The agenda includes various thematic discussions, including the impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan" on the copper market and the outlook for the cotton market amid changing tariffs [4][5] Speaker Profiles - Kian Pang Tan, Head of Agriculture Research at LSEG, specializes in palm oil and sugar market analysis, with over ten years of experience in agricultural research [9] - Fu Xiaoyan, Senior Director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, has extensive experience in the futures industry and focuses on copper market research [10] - Wang Yaoyao, Head of Commodity Sales at LSEG, has over ten years of experience in the commodity sector, providing data and analysis solutions to enhance research efficiency and trading decisions [14] Commodity Market Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization in commodity trading, highlighting that timely and accurate information is crucial for decision-making [18] - LSEG offers comprehensive solutions for energy, metals, and agricultural trading, leveraging a vast database and a strong analyst team to provide insights and competitive advantages [19][22][23][25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a focus on emerging industries with significant policy support [1][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that active investment strategies outperform passive ones, with the past decade's performance of the Chinese Embassy Index at an annualized return of only 2.2%, significantly lower than GDP growth [1][3]. - Emerging industries supported by the Five-Year Plan have yielded an average return of 40% over the past five years, surpassing the CSI 300 Index, which remained flat during the same period [3][5]. - The report identifies 35 sub-industries with a total market capitalization of $13 trillion as investment targets under the "14th Five-Year Plan," based on a detailed analysis of 400 policy-related statements [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - A flagship investment portfolio has been constructed, consisting of 50 stocks across 21 sectors, including artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy, with a growth of 36% over the past year, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 13 percentage points [1][6][8]. - The selection criteria for stocks include growth expectations of over 20% in sales or earnings within two years, a PEG ratio below 2.5, and a focus on high-quality companies [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the Asian market is more susceptible to policy support, with a focus on small to medium-sized tech hardware and semiconductor companies in the onshore market, while offshore markets are directed towards large internet companies and undervalued firms [7][8]. - Domestic consumption is a key priority in the Five-Year Plan, with significant potential in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and new consumption themes, which are expected to benefit from policy backing [9][10]. Policy Impact - The inclusion of anti-pollution measures in the Five-Year Plan is projected to enhance corporate earnings by approximately 1.5% over the next five years, particularly benefiting heavily impacted sectors such as chemicals and metals [11][12]. - The report suggests that the next significant policy clarity will emerge during the March meetings, which will be crucial for adjusting investment strategies [12].

Core Insights - The approval of platinum and palladium futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant step in the development of China's platinum group metals derivatives market, providing authoritative price signals and risk management tools for the green low-carbon industry [1] - Platinum and palladium are essential materials for various green industries, including automotive catalytic converters, hydrogen energy, and chemical applications, highlighting their strategic importance in the context of China's carbon neutrality goals [1][2] Supply and Dependency - China's dependence on imports for platinum and palladium remains significant, with 56% and 29% of its supply coming from abroad, primarily from South Africa and Russia [2][3] - The domestic supply of platinum and palladium is limited, with only a few small-scale mines in regions like Yunnan, Sichuan, and Qinghai, which poses challenges for developing a competitive mining sector [2] Recycling and Sustainability - The recycling system in China plays a crucial role in supplementing limited primary resources, with recycled platinum and palladium accounting for approximately 96% of total production in 2024 [3] - The foreign dependency for platinum has decreased from 61% in 2020 to 56% in 2024, while palladium's dependency has dropped from 43% to 29%, indicating improved supply security [3] Consumption Trends - China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium globally, with consumption shares of 26% and 23% respectively in 2024, driven by applications in clean transportation and low-carbon industries [4][5] - The consumption structure for platinum is shifting, with a decline in jewelry usage from 42% in 2020 to 21% in 2024, while the automotive sector's share has increased from 10% to 28% during the same period [5][6] Industrial Applications - The demand for platinum and palladium is transitioning from being predominantly driven by the automotive sector to a more diversified industrial application, reflecting the broader green transition [6][7] - The growth of plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to support platinum demand, countering declines in traditional fuel vehicle sales, with platinum consumption in automotive catalytic converters reaching 28% in 2023 [6][7] Future Outlook - As China's dual carbon goals advance, the applications of platinum and palladium in green industries are expected to expand, further solidifying their role as critical resources for high-quality economic development [7]

Market Overview - On November 20, the industrial metals sector declined by 0.52% compared to the previous trading day, with Xinweiling leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metals sector included: - Guocheng Mining (Code: 000688) with a closing price of 29.65, up 4.99% and a trading volume of 610,600 shares, totaling 1.823 billion yuan [1] - Asia-Pacific Technology (Code: 002540) with a closing price of 7.15, up 3.03% and a trading volume of 307,700 shares, totaling 220 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Xinweiling (Code: 920634) with a closing price of 24.91, down 3.67% and a trading volume of 12,900 shares, totaling 33.008 million yuan [2] - Chang Aluminum (Code: 002160) with a closing price of 5.41, down 3.22% and a trading volume of 751,900 shares, totaling 413 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The industrial metals sector experienced a net outflow of 1.961 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.359 billion yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Huayu Mining (Code: 601020) with a net inflow of 97.347 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xizang Zhuofeng (Code: 600338) with a net inflow of 94.423 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

2026 年大宗商品分析与展望 20251119 摘要 预计 2026 年内需品种乐观程度将提高，电解铝和钢铁配置价值上升， 受益于中美贸易战缓解及"十五五"规划政策支持，提升大宗商品风险 偏好和经济乐观预期。 中美贸易战缓解后，黄金避险需求或减退，但金价仍可能上行，黄金相 关股票吸引力增加，因高位持续时间越长，对企业盈利和估值修正越有 利，2026 年黄金股票投资吸引力或超黄金本身。 资源民族主义持续，镍、锡、钴等供应链脆弱的战略性金属仍被看好， 尽管 2025 年表现不佳，但 2026 年价格空间依然巨大。 美国 AI 投资支撑铜价，但铝因供给控制宽松表现不如铜。高利率环境不 利于传统行业，结构性需求支撑的铜前景乐观，供给侧控制严格的铝也 值得关注。 美国铜库存占全球 40%-50%，导致其他地区供应紧张，COMEX 铜价 高于 LME，跨市套利成为可能。若美国远月价格显著下降，可能改变此 局面，但目前尚未看到。 Q&A 对于 2026 年大宗商品市场的整体看法是什么？ 2026 年大宗商品市场的前景总体乐观，尤其是内需品种。2025 年无论外需还 是内需表现都较为一般，除了铜和黄金价格表现较好外，其他商 ...