Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On January 12, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with the main contract for silver rising over 14% and the main contract for carbon lithium and tin hitting the daily limit with increases of 9.00% and 8.00% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1661.85 points, up 55.54 points or 3.46% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2293.15 points, also up 76.64 points or 3.46% [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector remained active, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, with silver leading the market with a 14.42% increase [2] - The strong demand from AI and new energy developments, along with supply constraints and geopolitical disturbances, continued to attract investment in metals [2] - Despite increased margin requirements for silver futures by several exchanges, the market for silver remained robust, with expectations of continued upward price movement [2] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Sector Insights - The energy and chemical sectors were also buoyed by geopolitical concerns, with WTI crude oil opening strong above $59 per barrel due to fears of U.S. intervention in Iran [3] - Domestic chemical products saw widespread gains, with styrene rising over 3% and other products like polypropylene and PX also increasing by over 1% [3] - The shipping market experienced a rebound in bullish sentiment, with the main contract for the European shipping index rising over 11% [3] Group 4: Specific Commodity Challenges - The main contract for polysilicon opened high but fell significantly by the end of the day, down 2.89%, due to regulatory pressures and changes in market sentiment [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil did not follow the upward trend of crude oil, closing down 1.32%, as supply-side pressures continued to impact its price [4]

从资金流向上来看，当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出37.99亿元，游资资金净流入5.92亿元，散户资金 净流入32.06亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601702 | 华峰铝业 | 19.52 | -2.01% | 12.17万 | 2.37亿 | | 002532 | 天山铝业 | 17.84 | -1.60% | 73.51万 | 13.12亿 | | 600219 | 南山铝业 | 5.76 | -1.54% | 389.34万 | 22.51亿 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 13.85 | -1.42% | 474.33万 | 65.97亿 | | 000933 | 神火股份 | 29.73 | -1.16% | 42.98万 | 12.82 Z | | 600595 | 中国实业 | 8.61 | -0.92% | 75.24万 | 6.47亿 | | 603132 | 金徽股份 | 15.41 | -0.90% | 7 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（1 月 9 日）A 股三大指数延续上攻步伐，沪指 16 连阳站上 4100 点，再创逾 10 年新高。 截止收盘，沪指涨 0.92%，收报 4120.43 点；深证成指涨 1.15%，收报 14120.15 点；创业板指涨 0.77%，收报 3327.81 点。沪深两市成交额突破三万亿，达到 31526 亿，较昨日放量 3261 亿。 【郑糖】美糖上周五承压于供应过剩前景期价小幅收低。郑糖 2605 月合约上周五走势波动不大呈现震荡整 理态势。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的数据显示，截至 1 月 6 日当周，投机客增持 ICE 原糖期货和期 权净空头头寸 11,654 手，至 170,756 手。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】受空头打压沪胶上周五震荡走低。截止 1 月 9 日，上海期货交易所天然橡胶库存 120950 吨环比+3345 吨，期货仓单 104490 吨环比+3900 吨。20 号胶库存 59270 吨环比-2015 吨，期货仓单 56952 吨环比-1007 吨。（数 据来源： ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铂、锡、焦煤、PTA 期货将震 荡偏强 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 PVC 期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 约 | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震荡 | 4786 和 | 4800 点 | 4743 ...

受地缘政治紧张和供应链安全焦虑驱动，各国加速囤积战略物资，钨、钴等军工关键金属因"强安 全"需求价格飙升。同时，央行"去美元化"推动黄金定价逻辑重构。随着大宗商品与防务资产跑赢科技 股，"硬资产"时代或即将来临。 在地缘政治摩擦加剧与全球供应链重构的背景下，大宗商品市场正迎来一场深刻的范式转变。 据彭博报道，全球主要经济体正在从过去数十年依赖的"准时制"供应链模式，转向不计成本的"以防万 一"囤积模式。这一转变的核心在于，各国不再仅满足于维持最低限度的商业库存，而是开始大规模建 立战略储备，以应对潜在的战争风险、航运中断或地缘政治封锁。这种对安全感的极度渴求，正在重 塑从石油到稀有金属等各类大宗商品的供需格局。 在这一趋势中，能源与战略金属成为囤积的焦点。法兴银行大宗商品研究全球主管Michael Haigh指 出，有国家可能已经囤积了约14亿桶石油，这一"巨大"的规模足以在供应链完全中断的情况下支撑数 百天，远超90天的国际常态标准。与此同时，受"强安全"逻辑驱动，钨、钴等关键军工金属价格出现 剧烈波动。据浙商证券数据，2025年钨和钴的涨幅分别达到了229%和120%。 市场分析人士指出，这一变化对投资者 ...

在地缘政治摩擦加剧与全球供应链重构的背景下，大宗商品市场正迎来一场深刻的范式转变。 据彭博报道，全球主要经济体正在从过去数十年依赖的"准时制"供应链模式，转向不计成本的"以防万 一"囤积模式。这一转变的核心在于，各国不再仅满足于维持最低限度的商业库存，而是开始大规模建 立战略储备，以应对潜在的战争风险、航运中断或地缘政治封锁。这种对安全感的极度渴求，正在重塑 从石油到稀有金属等各类大宗商品的供需格局。 从"准时制"到"以防万一" 在低信任度的全球环境中，效率已让位于生存。彭博专栏作家Merryn Somerset Webb指出，过去那种持 有美国国债、赚取利息，并确信随时可以用美元买到所需商品的日子已经结束了。现在的逻辑是：必须 拥有实物，且必须现在就拥有。 这种逻辑在石油储备上体现得尤为明显。Michael Haigh分析称，有国家可能不仅已拥有约14亿桶的石油 储备，甚至可能计划将其推高至20亿桶。 美国方面同样在强化其能源安全。尽管美国拥有战略石油储备（SPR）且是净出口国，但在危机面 前，"足够"的定义已被改写。美国对委内瑞拉的行动，以及对格陵兰岛资源的关注，均反映出美国试图 通过控制资源产地来确立长 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points, closing at 4120.43 points, and trading volume exceeding 31,523 billion yuan, marking the sixth occurrence in history of trading volume surpassing 30 trillion yuan [1] - Hong Kong stocks lagged behind, with a slight increase of 0.32% [1] International Developments - The U.S. government is considering a cash incentive for Greenland residents to encourage their potential inclusion in the U.S., with discussions around distributing between 10,000 to 100,000 USD per person, totaling nearly 6 billion USD [1] - A joint military exercise named "Peace Intent-2026" involving China, Russia, and South Africa will take place in mid-January, highlighting a new security cooperation model among BRICS nations [1] Commodity and Metal Market - The U.S. dollar index surpassed 99, and the LMEX index for major base metals is expected to record its fourth consecutive week of gains, with copper and aluminum prices rising over 1% [2] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) and China Aluminum (02600) reached historical highs [2] AI and Technology Sector - MiniMax (00100) made a significant debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening at 235.4 HKD, a 42.67% increase from its issue price of 165 HKD [2] - AI applications are thriving, with companies like Zhizhu (02513) seeing over a 20% increase in stock price, reaching a market cap of 720 billion HKD [2] Healthcare Innovations - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, a dedicated space for health-related conversations, which can integrate with electronic medical records [3] - Companies like iFlytek Medical Technology (02506) reported a significant increase in stock price, with their medical deep reasoning model achieving a 94% accuracy rate in diagnostic assistance [3] Aerospace and Automotive Sector - JunDa Co. (02865) and Goldwind Technology (02208) experienced initial surges in stock prices, while CIMC Anrui (03899) continues to perform well, with over 100 million RMB in revenue from aerospace-related business [4] - Black Sesame Intelligence (02533) secured a strategic investment of 500 million RMB, boosting its stock price by nearly 5% [4] Market Trends and Stock Movements - The price of crab-eating macaques has surged to 140,000 yuan each, leading to a 7% increase in shares of Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) due to market expectations [5] - Youjia Innovation (02431) repurchased 3,004,800 shares for approximately 44.88 million HKD, indicating confidence from cornerstone investors [5] Employment Data and Legal Decisions - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release December employment data, which is anticipated to be more reliable following the longest government shutdown in history [6] - The U.S. Supreme Court will make a final decision on the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump, which may have limited impact on the market [6] Mining Sector Developments - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions regarding a potential merger, which could create the largest mining company with a market value exceeding 200 billion USD [7] - If the merger occurs, it may lead to increased concentration in the global resources sector, impacting companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) and China Aluminum (02600) [7] Company Performance and Projections - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) expects a net profit of 3.87 to 4.65 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% [8] - The company is benefiting from growing demand for cooling components in data centers and is set to produce humanoid robots, with significant revenue contributions expected starting in 2026 [9]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.70 | -3.23% | 174.13万 | 4.77亿 | | 300337 | 银邦股份 | 18.62 | -1.48% | 158.14万 | 29.92亿 | | 603876 | 鼎胜新材 | 16.06 | -1.35% | 43.43万 | 6.94亿 | | 600768 | 宁波富邦 | 14.50 | -1.16% | 4.97万 | 7207.57万 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 12.70 | -0.78% | 9.76万 | 1.24亿 | | 603115 | 海量股份 | 20.93 | -0.76% | 4.85万 | 1.02亿 | | 600615 | 鑫源智造 | 11.79 | -0.34% | 3.43万 | 4055.72万 | | 603527 | 众源新材 | 11.09 | 0.00% | 9.61万 | 1.07亿 | | 300057 | 万顺新 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月09日 宏观经济专题研究 十张图看大宗品开年狂欢 2025 年末至今，全球大宗商品市场迎来结构性上涨行情，工业金属与贵金 属领涨、传统周期品表现平淡，本质是地缘政治重构与全球经济结构转型共 振的结果。 本轮大宗商品脱离了传统制造业周期约束。 （1）2025 年 LME 铜价从不足 8000 美元 / 吨飙升至 13000 美元 / 吨以 上，累计涨幅超 60%，而美国制造业 PMI 长期徘徊在 48.2%-48.3% 的收缩 区间，全球制造业复苏呈现碎片化特征，供需两端形成鲜明反差。 （2）背后原因是，全球地缘政治不确定性系统性上升，俄乌冲突、委内瑞 拉政局动荡等事件频发，叠加主要经济体贸易保护主义抬头，获取关键资源 成为保障供应链安全的核心诉求，催生了显著的安全溢价。 算力需求引领品种分化。 （1）本轮行情另一特征是品种极端分化，铜油比、铜螺比等指标均超出两 倍标准差，创下多年罕见水平。 （2）这一现象本质是全球经济增长模式切换的直接映射。传统以房地产、 大规模基建为核心的增长模式，正逐步被以 "算力 + 电力" 为核心的数 字经济模式取代，AI、云计算、大数据等新兴产业爆 ...

1月9日，黄金股票ETF（517400）涨超2.8%，弱美元和宏观环境形成支撑。 申万宏源证券指出，有色金属和贵金属行业近期呈现价格加速上涨趋势。宏观方面，美元指数下行至98 点下方，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0，弱美元环境下白银四季度上演技术性逼空行情，贵金属和工业金 属价格普遍加速上涨，同时月内波动放大。贵金属在岁末年初也出现逼空行情，月内波动率显著提升。 这一趋势反映出在弱美元和宏观环境支撑下，金属类资产价格表现强劲。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...