Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国政府计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能 项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易 集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨四种金属，随后将逐 步扩大覆盖范围。评：稀有金属需求持续有支撑，但是白银更 多关注黄金的波动，节假日期间市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银 做多力量小于黄金。关注后续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金 被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，AI已引发美国劳动力 市场的代际更迭，可能导致失业率上升，美联储可能无法以降 息应对，货币政策可能陷入两难，降息既无法有效应对结构性 失业，又可能推高通胀。评：美联储理事库克及芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比均表示，只是降息不能解决所有问题，市场对降息 预期有所减弱。黄金进一步上涨动力不足，关注美国关税及地 缘扰动，黄金中期或依然高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月25日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.c ...

市场热点或将延续短线"补涨、兑现"，然后布局中期主线的逻辑推进。中期看，今年迈入量产爆发阶段 的人形机器人、商业航天、自动驾驶等科技主线，或更具市场共识。尤其春晚人形机器人爆火后，其实 际销售也在大增，在估值逐渐夯实后有望迎来新一轮机会。 机构看后市 东方证券：维持市场将冲击4200点判断，算力产业链和电力基建仍值得关注 东方证券表示，短期来看，节前A股跟随海外资产调整后已释放了一定的风险，国内宏观和产业层面的 密集催化将陆续出现，对相关板块形成向上指引，我们继续维持市场冲顶4200的判断。 光大证券：预计后市成交活跃度将继续回升，震荡格局有望逐渐打破 光大证券表示，持币过节资金有望逐步重新回归市场，预计后市成交活跃度将继续回升。短线市场情绪 或延续改善，赚钱效应提升。中期行情有望逐渐打破节前的震荡格局，迎接新一轮春季躁动行情。 A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.15%，创业板指涨0.15%。盘面上，金属板块表现活跃，湖南白银、白 银有色涨超2%；AI应用、影视院线等板块跌幅居前。 东莞证券：A股进入具备配置价值的区间，重点关注红利、电力设备等板块 东莞证券表示，历史数据显示，A 股在春节后往往迎来高胜率窗口， ...

2月24日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）基本金属普涨，中国节后需求增加以及积极的投资者情绪 推动期铜攀升至逾一周高点。 伦敦时间2月24日17:00(北京时间2月25日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨298美元，或2.32%，收报每吨 13,166.50美元，此前触及2月12日以来最高水平。 据央视新闻报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）表示，将从美国东部时间2月24日起停止征收依据 《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）开征的关税。 此前，美国最高法院20日公布裁决，认定特朗普政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的大规模关税政 策违法。 同在20日，特朗普在最高法院裁决公布后宣布，依据美国《1974年贸易法》第122条，对全球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认定违法的关税。21日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文 称，他前一天宣布对输美商品加征的"全球进口关税"税率将从10%提高到15%。 铜价周一曾下跌0.7%，但过去三个月上涨了22%，然而铜价仍远低于1月29日创下的14,527.50美元历史 峰值。 | | 2月24日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | --- | --- ...

随着投资者权衡美国与伊朗达成核协议的可能性，原油价格再度走低，黄金价格则在近期走高后回落。 铜等基本金属全线上涨。 原油：油价走低 投资者权衡伊朗核协议达成的可能性 油价连续第三天下跌，投资者在评估华盛顿与德黑兰通过外交途径达成核协议、从而避免美国对伊朗发 动军事打击的可能性。 WTI原油下跌1%，收于每桶66美元下方；布伦特原油收于每桶71美元下方。此前，美国全国公共广播 电台的一则报道称，伊朗已准备尽快与美国达成协议。该消息在社交媒体上传播，而市场对与中东冲突 相关的消息非常敏感，不过交易员对伊朗是否真的准备达成协议持怀疑态度。 由于有迹象显示紧张局势远未缓和，油价跌幅受到限制。一名国防官员对CNN表示，美国周二向以色 列部署了12架F-22隐形战斗机，这使得美国在该地区的大规模军事集结进一步加码。 核协议谈判定于周四在日内瓦恢复，特朗普的特使史蒂夫·威特科夫以及女婿贾里德·库什纳将再次与伊 朗外长阿拉格奇会面。 4月WTI原油在纽约市场下跌1%，结算价为每桶65.63美元。 4月布伦特原油下跌1%，收于每桶70.77美元。 基本金属：铜等基本金属价格全线走高 截至收盘 LME期铜上涨2.3%，报1316 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 避险情绪升级，贵金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260216-20260220 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 有色金属 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨 1.39%，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 1.70%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.34 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 1.06%，铝下跌 1.88%，能源金属上涨 2.66%，小金属上涨 6.66%，铜上涨 1.10 ...

分析师表示，铜市场短期前景显示供应过剩，这抑制了价格上涨。 盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen上周在一份分析报告中写道： "显性库存不断上升、中国节前需求走弱，以及伦敦现货对三个月期铜的期货升水结构，都表明短期供应充足，这抵消了铜作为长期投资主题的吸引力--而 铜的长期逻辑是由电气化、人工智能数据中心用电需求、电动汽车以及制冷基础设施所驱动的。" "尽管长期逻辑依然利好，但在节后需求信号重新出现之前，铜价短期上行空间可能仍将受限。" 尽管长期来看，受电气化转型与用电量激增推动，铜需求大幅攀升的前景并未改变，但铜市短期前景却远不如金价上涨那般稳固。 高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师在报告中写道："尽管我们预计黄金长期价格将进一步上涨，但在基准情景下，整个大宗商品领域的回报将出现更明显的分 化。" 受农历春节影响，中国市场已休市一周多，直至2月24日才恢复交易。春节前后需求通常走弱，金属交易所也无法像过去几周那样对全球价格产生影响。 2月22日（周日），上个月铜价飙升至每吨13,000美元以上的历史高位，但本周回落至12,700美元左右，因市场对长期需求走强的预期，与中美主 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 新兴市场 油价上涨推动拉美股市在动荡的一周中走高，第四季度财报季即将到来 拉美市场本周经历了动荡，地缘政治紧张局势加剧推高了油价，支撑了能源公司股价，而金属价格走软 则拖累了材料板块。在国内方面，秘鲁摆脱了政治动荡的影响，阿根廷在改革预期下依然波动。第四季 度财报季即将到来，这将是该地区财报季最繁忙的一周。与此同时，在海外，英伟达的业绩可能会考验 全球人工智能风险偏好。 印尼MSCI评级下调风险看似不大，但改革至关重要 印尼被MSCI从新兴市场降级的风险似乎不大。机械压力测试表明，仅靠流通股压缩不会违反MSCI的新 兴市场标准，而且印尼在市场准入方面得分仍然很高，表明其结构性门槛依然有效。目前正在进行的改 革旨在解决透明度问题，但在MSCI 5月份的评估之前，能否有效落实这些改革至关重要。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 印度股指横盘整理；市场脉搏指数显示中性 印度股市指数横盘整理，掩盖了整体市场的疲软态势。综合的BI印度市场脉搏指数徘徊在中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].

在分析近期价格波动的内在逻辑时，相关研究员认为，避险溢价的收缩是金价回调的重要诱因。尽管中 东地区仍有航母部署及军事演习，但由于美伊谈判在日内瓦达成了"指导原则"共识，此前紧绷的地缘溢 价迅速消退。这种情绪的转变使得黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内让位于走强的美元资产。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离场的情况，反映出全行业对未来流动性紧 缩风险的防御性布局。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离 ...