（长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 铅市场正呈现"供应收缩"与"需求分化"并存的紧平衡格局。供应端，原生铅受原料紧张与集中检修影 响，产量边际下滑；再生铅则因废电瓶到货不畅、利润低迷而普遍减产，整体供应呈收缩态势。需求 端，市场出现结构性分化：汽车起动电池受益于冬季替换与备货需求，形成稳健支撑；而电动自行车等 传统消费步入淡季，且出口持续疲软，对整体需求形成拖累。产业链各环节传导不畅：上游矿端偏紧压 制中游冶炼开工，下游则按需采购、态度谨慎。在此背景下，铅价下方存在供应收紧带来的成本支撑， 但上行空间受制于需求的结构性疲软，预计短期维持震荡运行，价格方向取决于"供应减量"与"淡季需 求"二者的博弈强度。 今日走势预测： 宏观面情绪转暖，铅市基本面冬歇减产叠加转型调整，供给收缩显韧性，终端需求分化明显，预计短期 内铅价震荡修复反弹。 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔周伦铅收跌，开盘报1957美元/吨，高点报1965.5美元，低点报1951.5美元， 尾盘收于1960美元，下跌1美元；成交量4806手。国内夜盘沪期铅弱势震荡，尾盘小幅收跌，主力合约 沪铅2601收报16 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The production of primary lead remains stable overall, but the shortage of raw material supply restricts further significant production growth. The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The production of recycled lead shows signs of recovery, but the growth is less than expected. The supply of waste batteries is tight, which restricts the release of recycled lead production capacity. If environmental control remains stable and waste battery supply stays at the current level, recycled lead production is expected to maintain a stable growth trend. On the demand side, orders in the leading energy storage battery sector are relatively stable, supporting the demand for lead. However, due to the "trade - in" policy, the traditional replacement market is dull. Downstream battery enterprises face inventory pressure and are cautious in purchasing high - priced lead sources. Overall, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,115 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,976.5 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars. The spread between the 01 - 02 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,017 lots, down 1,395 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 238 lots, an increase of 1,158 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,735 tons, down 3,064 tons; the LME lead inventory is 236,925 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,150 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 49.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.81 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,771 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by WBMS is 22,000 tons, an increase of 45,500 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 43.14%, an increase of 7.58%. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 68.49%, a decrease of 13.32%. The weekly output of primary lead is 38,600 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 100 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by ILZSG is - 2,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons. The monthly global lead ore production by ILZSG is 383,300 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 98,300 tons, a decrease of 52,300 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 3,812.24 tons, an increase of 2,304.32 tons. The average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,098.42 tons, an increase of 612.28 tons. The average daily price of waste batteries is 9,851.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.42 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,661,000, a decrease of 350,000. The average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,400 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The daily Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,934.16 points, down 13.49 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000. The monthly new energy vehicle production is 1.71 million vehicles, an increase of 130,000 [3]. Industry News - Trump may reduce tariffs on some over - priced goods and considers an immediate interest - rate cut as the "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman. Trump starts the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading. Hassett believes the Fed has enough room for a significant interest - rate cut. The US job openings in October reached the highest level in five months, but recruitment remains sluggish. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict continues. Zelensky refuses to "cede territory" and will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the interest rate at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expects the interest - rate cut cycle may end [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and supply disruption concerns have led to an upward drive in the non - ferrous metals market. Opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: CSPT's agreement on joint production cuts will cause copper prices to fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: Codelco is raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers. CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of ore - copper by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 2, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and copper inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. There are continuous supply disruptions in copper mines, and CSPT's production cut plan strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although demand is in the off - season, the market expects a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices will continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: Alumina spot prices remained stable in most regions on December 2. The willingness of futures - cash merchants to sell warehouse receipts is strong. On December 2, the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction needs to be observed. The domestic market is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak, so the alumina price is under pressure [11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macroeconomic sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium remained unchanged. Aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased. An Australian rescue plan aims to prevent a smelter from closing, and new Indonesian aluminum plants are in operation [12]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the dollar index is under pressure. The domestic economy is weakly stable. The supply side has high domestic operating capacity and overseas power shortages. The demand side is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: With strong cost support, the market will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts decreased. In October, the import volume of scrap aluminum increased year - on - year [14][15][16]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand is marginally improving, and inventory is rising. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: With the export window open, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 2, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake [18]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is rising. In the short term, zinc ore supply has loosened, and smelters' profitability is good. The export window has opened, but demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained unchanged. The price of lead ingots increased, and the premium was stable. Lead ingot inventory decreased, and some smelters were under maintenance [19]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and price difference are stable, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. Production has decreased due to smelter maintenance, and demand from battery enterprises is improving. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: With the easing of the supply side in Indonesia, nickel prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME and Shanghai nickel inventories decreased. An Indonesian company plans to focus on three HPAL projects next year. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices are slightly weaker, and inventory has accumulated significantly. Nickel prices will fluctuate [23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: With the stable price of nickel - iron, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On December 2, the spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [24]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. After the peak season, production and demand have decreased, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: With continuous supply concerns, tin prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's mining area is slow, and Indonesian exports are restricted. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Index - On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed slight declines, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively [151]. 3.2.2 Special Index No relevant content provided. 3.2.3 Sector Index - On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of - 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of + 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of + 8.85% [153].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-02 下游刚需采购 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-01，LME铅现货升水为-41.94美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 风险 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较前一个交易日持平。河南地区铅冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅贴水20-0元/吨出厂，贸易 商报价对沪期铅2601合约贴水50-20元/吨出厂；湖南地区铅冶炼厂报价升水下调至对SMM1#铅升水50-60元/吨出厂 但成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, and demand growth also faces certain resistance. With the expected continued accumulation of inventory, the short - term decline of Shanghai lead has slowed down. Attention should be focused on the 16980 pressure level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME was 2,027 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 87,047 lots, down 8,288 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,809 lots, down 1,331 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, down 1,325 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, down 11.33 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%. The monthly output of recycled lead was 18,300 tons, down 67,500 tons; the weekly output of primary lead was 38,700 tons, up 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 9,898.21 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45.696 million units, down 3.984 million units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,119.32 points, down 49.84 points; the monthly automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Some waste lead - acid battery recycling enterprises in East China reported a continuous decrease in battery scrap volume this week. Affected by the continuous decline in lead prices, some smelters have started to lower their quotes, which has intensified the concerns of some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises. To avoid the risk of continuous price decline of waste lead - acid batteries, recycling enterprises have become more active in shipping, which may accelerate the short - term price loosening of waste lead - acid batteries. On the supply side, the shortage of domestic lead concentrate supply for primary lead continues, and the quotes in the imported ore market are scarce. Some smelters have to purchase low - silver lead ore to maintain production. The subsequent supply of primary lead is expected to have limited growth. For recycled lead, the production willingness of recycled lead enterprises is strong this week. At the current profit level, the output of recycled lead is still expected to increase. Major smelters in Anhui are gradually resuming production and steadily increasing production, and are expected to continue to rise. Production in Henan and Jiangsu is stable, and the operating rate in Inner Mongolia has significantly increased due to tight lead ingot supply and sufficient orders. Currently, the raw material supply is stable and enterprise inventories are abundant, so the overall operating rate is expected to increase again. In addition, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the supply in the hands of recyclers is scarce, and stores generally have a strong sentiment of holding back sales in anticipation of price increases [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In November, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakened, and some manufacturers reduced their monthly production schedules, which restricted the recovery of the operating rate. However, as the impact of early - month production cuts further subsides, the subsequent operating level will continue to recover steadily. Some leading battery enterprises have good order conditions, focus on expanding energy - storage business, and increase the production capacity of lead - carbon cells, which will further increase the demand for lead. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots remains high, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will inhibit demand growth to a certain extent. This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot shortage began to ease. With the resumption of production by smelting enterprises and the increase in imports due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the active start - up of recycled lead, the lead inventory is still expected to accumulate [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - Low inventory and tight ore costs support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a pullback after a surge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The price range is between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,605 yuan/ton, closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 61,405 lots, an increase of 5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 43,468 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,815 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,575 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,705 yuan/ton, closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, some lead brands were sold at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. The futures price continued to fluctuate strongly, but downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the intention to take delivery decreased significantly [2] Inventory - On November 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 13, the LME lead inventory was 223,975 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead price maintains a volatile pattern due to the tug - of - war between buyers and sellers. Low inventory and tight ore cost support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a potential decline after a rise. It is recommended to buy low and sell high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$12.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,350 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,505 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,855 lots, a decrease of 755 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55,107 lots, a decrease of 3,618 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,575 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,435 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,485 yuan/ton and closed at 17,520 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared with the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in the Hunan region, smelters' quoted premiums decreased, with a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and some manufacturers still held back sales after selling out their inventory; in the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex - factory sales. The lead futures fluctuated and consolidated, and downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, with the market trading volume gradually weakening in some regions [2] Inventory - On November 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 11, the LME lead inventory was 226,725 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Neutral. Due to low inventory and tight ore cost supporting the lead price, but considering the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer, be vigilant against a decline after a rise. Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by the long - term shutdown of the US government, and the short - term concern about liquidity has increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand is affected by high prices. The price is expected to be volatile [7]. - The alumina market is in a state of significant oversupply. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not yet occurred. The price is under pressure, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range bottom - grinding state [16]. - The aluminum market has a tight supply - demand pattern. The overseas supply is expected to decrease, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The price is expected to be strong after corrections [23]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by cost support and tight supply - demand balance. The price is likely to rise and is expected to be strong [30]. - The zinc market has a tight ore end, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus situation may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. - The lead market has a situation where supply may increase and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. - The nickel market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. - The stainless steel market has weak terminal demand and sufficient supply. The price is expected to be weak [55]. - The tin market has a tight ore supply and slow demand recovery. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. - The industrial silicon market has a weakening demand in November. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. - The polysilicon market has a situation where supply and demand both decrease in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. - The lithium carbonate market has a tightening supply - demand situation in November, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86320 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 299 lots to 557,300 lots [1]. - Spot: The Shanghai spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong reported a discount of 15 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The North China market reported a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, causing a 700 - billion - dollar liquidity shortage in the market [2]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [2]. - Anglo Asian Mining signed a contract to sell copper concentrates from its new Demirli copper mine [2]. - Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast for the second time in three months [3]. - As of November 6, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 3,200 tons to 203,300 tons [4]. Logic Analysis - Macro: The long - term shutdown of the US government increases short - term liquidity concerns [7]. - Supply: Multiple mining companies lowered production plans in Q3, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The non - US supply shortage is alleviated [7]. - Demand: High copper prices reduce the operating rates of copper rod and cable enterprises, and the procurement sentiment improves after price drops [7]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage and leave the market temporarily after the export window opens [13]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. 3.2 Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract rose 24 yuan to 2787 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped 2.6 yuan. The prices in different regions had varying changes [10]. Relevant Information - On November 6, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Australia at a FOB price of 320 US dollars/ton [11]. - As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, up 88,000 tons from last week [11]. - Guinea's NMC started barge shipments of bauxite, and ELITE MINING resumed shipments after the rainy season [12]. - A project in Guangxi started the inquiry and selection for the red mud pipeline survey [15]. - Guangxi Long'an Hetai New Materials' 1 - million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and trial - produced by the end of the year [15]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand of alumina is in significant surplus. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not occurred. The import window is open, and new projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [16]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Narrow - range bottom - grinding [17]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [18]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [18]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21,630 yuan/ton [20]. - Spot: The prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [20]. Relevant Information - The US Treasury's general account balance exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, sucking more than 700 billion US dollars from the market [20]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [20]. - As of November 6, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons [21]. - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter reduced production due to equipment failure [22]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data is better than expected, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has improved [23]. - Fundamental: The supply - demand of aluminum is tight. Overseas supply is expected to decrease, and domestic consumption is resilient [23]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Maintain a strong - trending shock [28]. - Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum [28]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [28]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 245 to 21,000 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were flat [26]. Relevant Information - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the US will cancel the "fentanyl tariff" [26]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [26]. - The US government shutdown has a liquidity impact on the market [27]. - The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in October was 20,498 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton increased [29]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data alleviates market concerns [30]. - Fundamental: The cost of raw materials rises, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is likely to rise [30]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum alloy price is mainly strong following the aluminum price [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [31]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [31]. 3.5 Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.29% to 22,675 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 2,453 lots to 225,600 lots [33]. - Spot: The Shanghai zinc inventory decreased, and the spot premium continued to hold up, but downstream procurement was cautious [33]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased [34]. Logic Analysis - The ore end is tight, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see temporarily [38]. - Arbitrage: Hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [38]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [38]. 3.6 Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,430 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2,494 lots to 122,400 lots [40]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased, and the downstream buying willingness improved slightly [40]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory increased [41]. Logic Analysis - Supply may increase, and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Hold profitable short positions. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [43]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [43]. 3.7 Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 80 to 119,750 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 7,869 lots [45]. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel had different changes [47]. Important Information - MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business is under EU investigation [48]. - The global nickel price has dropped significantly in the past two years due to oversupply [48]. Logic Analysis - The LME nickel inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. Trading Strategy - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [50]. 3.8 Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 rose 35 to 12,590 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 10,369 lots [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The US steel market demand is strong, and the EU recycling industry opposes possible steel tariffs [53]. - India temporarily relaxes import restrictions on non - compliant stainless steel products [55]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is weak, and supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak [55]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Weak - trending shock [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [53]. 3.9 Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,420 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan/ton or 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,849 lots to 66,355 lots [59]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai metal network tin ingots increased, but the overall consumption was weak [59]. Relevant Information - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [60]. - The US government has been shut down for 36 days [61]. - Yunnan has achieved over - target exploration of strategic minerals [61]. - Xingye Yinxi's production of tin in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased [61]. Logic Analysis - US employment data alleviates market pessimism. The ore supply is tight, and demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is in a high - level shock [65]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [66]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Important Information - In Yunnan, the number of operating industrial silicon furnaces decreased in October, and it is expected to be less than 20 in November [68]. Logic Analysis - In November, the demand for industrial silicon weakens. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy at low prices [69]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon Important Information - Hubei launches a bidding for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism of new energy projects in 2025 [73]. Logic Analysis - In November, supply and demand both decrease, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy after a correction [79]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage of far - month contracts [80]. - Options: None [81]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1540 to 80,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 25,948 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 410 to 26,420 tons [83]. - Spot: The SMM prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [83]. Important Information - In October, the new - energy vehicle retail and wholesale in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [84]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase significantly in 2026, while the supply growth is limited [84]. - Samsung SDI will supply Tesla with energy - storage batteries [84]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s lithium salt project is in trial operation [84]. - Chile's lithium carbonate exports in October increased [84]. Logic Analysis - In November, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate tightens, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to whether the support of the lower moving average is effective [86]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [88]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle option combination [88].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - **Related Information**: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - **Related Information**: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - **Related Information**: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - **Important Information**: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - **Important Information**: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]