Group 1 - The average price of lead ingots is 16,800 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averages 16,775 CNY/ton, indicating a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 22, the main market lead ingot social inventory in China is 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from July 17 [1] - The Shanghai market inventory stands at 7,900 tons, Guangdong at 3,900 tons, Jiangsu at 15,000 tons, Tianjin at 20,000 tons, and Zhejiang at 19,000 tons [1] Group 2 - On July 22, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warrants at 186,525 tons and canceled warrants at 75,975 tons, with total lead inventory at 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [2] - New Hu Futures' analysis indicates that while domestic waste battery prices remain stable, there has been a slight recovery in recycled lead production, and primary lead production remains high despite some maintenance [3] - The demand for electric bicycle batteries is stagnant, and while there is slight improvement in the automotive battery market, overall demand remains below expectations, leading to increased concerns about demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral; Option strategy:暂缓 [4] Core View - The downstream has a fear of price drops, leading to sluggish trading in the spot market. The domestic ore supply remains relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious yet. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Therefore, the current operation is mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][2][4] Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan/ton, closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,614 lots, down 988 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 53,407 lots, up 740 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Dragon Boat Festival, both supply and demand have slightly increased. Coupled with the overall price increase in the non - ferrous metals sector, the lead price has also rebounded. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.93/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead prices in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the lead scrap spread remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton, closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 30,240 lots, down 2,474 lots, and the position was 42,057 lots, down 1,547 lots. The night - session price rose 0.35% compared with the afternoon closing [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - The downstream maintained rigid - demand procurement. Due to the discounted recycled lead in some regions, the rigid - demand was diverted, and the trading was relatively light. On June 16, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of June 16, the LME lead inventory was 263,475 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: Maintain a neutral view, and expect the lead price to fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is currently the off - season for consumption, with low downstream enterprise operations. Sellers are lowering quotes, and some smelters are resuming production. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to wait [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.98 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16525 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, while SMM lead spot prices in Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin all increased by 25 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference and waste battery prices remained unchanged [1] Futures - On June 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16705 yuan/ton, closed at 16765 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27538 lots, a decrease of 3315 lots, and the position was 49567 lots, a decrease of 408 lots. The night - session main contract opened at 16810 yuan/ton and closed at 16865 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On June 9, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons from the previous week. As of June 9, the LME lead inventory was 279975 tons, a decrease of 1375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish, with a recommendation to conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The selling range is suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to wait [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the terminal consumption of lead batteries remains weak, some manufacturers continue to consume inventory, and raw material procurement stays low. As it is currently the off - season for consumption, lead prices may maintain a relatively weak pattern. However, due to the significant progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and improved market sentiment, lead prices may also maintain a relatively resilient pattern driven by the overall non - ferrous metals sector. For now, the operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $5.95 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan per ton to - 20.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by - 25 yuan per ton to 16,775 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by - 50 yuan per ton to 16,750 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 50 yuan per ton to 16,825 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,300 yuan per ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,550 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On May 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan per ton and closed at 16,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,926 lots, a decrease of 15,696 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 30,495 lots, a decrease of 2,814 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,000 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,895 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan per ton and closed at 16,980 yuan per ton, a 0.18% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. Shanghai lead maintained a relatively strong oscillation. Sellers were active in selling, and the premium in quotes increased. At the same time, the premium of the ex - factory supply of electrolytic lead smelters to Shanghai lead further widened, with a few quotes approaching a discount of 200 yuan per ton. The circulating supply of recycled refined lead was limited, with quotes at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and a few premium quotes still existed. Downstream enterprises were highly cautious and made few inquiries, resulting in a sluggish transaction in the retail market [2] Inventory - On May 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 253,175 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile due to the potential weakening impact of tariff factors on supply and the significant impact of tariffs on the consumer side [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On April 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On April 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,965 yuan/ton and closed at 16,940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,737 lots, and the open interest was 39,654 lots. The night - session closed at 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the afternoon close [1] - **Enterprise Quotes**: The spot quotation range of Chihong lead is 16,885 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2505 contract. The premium of Jijin lead and Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region has narrowed to 0 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: On April 24, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 277,875 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]