Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a price increase driven by macroeconomic sentiment and improved fundamental expectations, with geopolitical risks also contributing to market dynamics [1] Supply Side: Constraints from Raw Materials, Environmental Policies, and Seasonality - The lead market faces significant supply constraints, with domestic lead concentrate supply remaining tight and processing fees at low levels, impacting smelter profits and leading to reduced production capacity [2] - Environmental regulations in regions like Henan are tightening, and raw material shortages are limiting the release of recycling capacity, further tightening short-term supply [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival is prompting some smelting enterprises to enter maintenance periods early, constraining supply [2] Demand Side: Seasonal Stockpiling and Structural Highlights - Demand is not experiencing a full-scale explosion but is supported by structural highlights and seasonal impulses, with downstream lead-acid battery dealers increasing purchases ahead of the holiday [3] - The automotive starting battery sector is benefiting from winter replacement demand and stable orders, while the energy storage battery sector is also seeing steady growth [3] - However, demand in consumer sectors like electric bicycle batteries remains weak, limiting overall demand growth [3] Industry Chain Status: Profit Differentiation and Market Dynamics - The current state of the industry chain reflects a "tight balance" market, with social lead ingot inventories at historically low levels, preventing significant inventory pressure [4] - Profit distribution shows clear differentiation: upstream mining maintains stable profits, midstream smelting faces thin margins, and downstream battery companies are struggling to pass on raw material cost increases [4] - Domestic market balance is primarily achieved through internal supply, with limited contributions from imported lead ingots due to overseas supply disruptions [4] Leading Enterprises Dynamics: Steady Operations and Transformation - Leading enterprises like Yuguang Gold Lead are demonstrating strong operational resilience and steady growth in 2025, reflecting industry trends [5] - Their strategies include consolidating core product advantages while actively pursuing high-end and diversified transformations, such as developing high-purity materials and new lead alloys [5] Spot Trading and Price Forecast: High Volatility and Post-Holiday Pressure - The spot market is seeing price increases driven by futures, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, leading to cautious trading behavior [6] - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, supported by macro sentiment and pre-holiday stockpiling, with core trading ranges projected between 17,300 and 17,500 yuan/ton [6] - Long-term, lead prices lack strong upward momentum, with potential inventory accumulation pressures post-holiday and a return to a wide fluctuation pattern as supply gradually recovers [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent strength in lead prices is a result of a combination of macroeconomic expectations, capital flows, and fundamental market conditions [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows a reassessment of policy paths in major economies, which has alleviated pressure on the US dollar and directed capital towards non-ferrous metals and cyclical sectors [2] - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between rigid supply (due to tight primary mineral supply and slow recovery of recycled lead) and resilient demand (stable traditional sectors and growth in emerging sectors like energy storage) [2] Group 2 - Global lead inventories are at historically low levels, which amplifies price elasticity and supports the strong performance of lead prices [2] - The supply side faces multiple constraints, including low visible inventories, tight primary mineral supply, and slow recovery of recycled lead production, leading to insufficient overall supply elasticity [2] - Demand is showing unexpected resilience, driven by traditional pre-holiday restocking and robust growth in emerging sectors, which provides strong support to traditional consumption [2] Group 3 - The current price increase is not driven by short-term speculation but is supported by a marginal improvement in macro liquidity expectations and a reassessment of the tight supply-demand fundamentals of lead [2] - Given the low inventory levels, constrained supply growth, and structural demand highlights, lead prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the short term, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm payroll data in the US in December 2025 was lower than expected, with data for October and November revised downwards. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026. The non - ferrous metals sector started strongly in 2026, and although there was short - term profit - taking, the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals showed different trends driven by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors [3][10][11]. - China's economic data in December 2025 was positive. The official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was also better than expected. The central bank emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, but the ISM services index reached a new high in more than a year. The employment data was weak, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts remained [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level factors**: In 2026, a relatively loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to key mineral supply chains, and resource nationalism in resource - rich countries supported the non - ferrous metals sector. However, there was short - term high - volatility due to profit - taking [10]. - **China's economic situation**: In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The central bank planned to increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - **US economic situation**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, the "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The non - farm payroll in December increased by only 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026 [10][11]. - **Investment recommendations for each metal**: - **Copper**: It was recommended to buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range was 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - spread opportunity between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts and buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options [3][4]. - **Aluminum and its industrial chain**: For aluminum, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 24,500 - 25,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, sell on rallies, with the upper pressure range at 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money call options for protection. For recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range was 360,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Zinc**: It was relatively strong and followed the overall sector. The upper pressure was around 24,300 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support was around 23,600 - 23,800 yuan/ton. Consider the bull - spread option strategy [6]. - **Lead**: It was expected to oscillate and rise. The short - term lower support was around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper resistance was around 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Use a covered - call option strategy [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel showed high - elasticity and short - term strength. The upper resistance was around 140,000 - 142,000 yuan, and the lower support was around 130,000 - 132,000 yuan. Use options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, a bullish approach on dips was recommended, with the price range at 13,000 - 14,200 yuan [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures price changes**: Copper closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, up 3.23%; aluminum at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 6.99%; tin at 352,540 yuan/ton, up 9.17%; nickel at 139,090 yuan/ton, up 4.70%; stainless steel at 13,860 yuan/ton, up 5.60%; zinc at 23,970 yuan/ton, up 2.99%; alumina at 2,843 yuan/ton, up 2.34%; lead at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged; and cast aluminum alloy at 22,985 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot price changes**: Copper spot prices decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 100,720 yuan/ton, down 1.88%. Zinc spot prices also decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 24,020 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. Aluminum spot prices were stable, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price at 24,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina spot prices were stable, with the Antaike national alumina average price at 2,693 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Included data on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate rough - smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [26]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, galvanized sheet production seasonality, and the weekly inventory seasonality of SMM seven - region zinc ingots [28]. - **Aluminum and alumina**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum prices, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum prices, the average price trend of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum ingots, the comparison of China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity and total capacity, alumina spot price trends, alumina port inventory changes, and alumina capacity and operating rate trends [32][38]. - **Tin**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai tin prices and spot premiums, LME tin prices and spot premiums, the relationship between Shanghai tin inventory and LME tin inventory, tin concentrate processing fees, and the seasonal diagram of China's refined tin production [44][47][49]. - **Lead**: Included data on SHFE lead futures inventory, LME lead inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premiums, lead concentrate processing fees, primary lead operating rate, and SMM lead - acid battery weekly operating rate [56][59][61]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Included data on SHFE nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premiums, LME nickel 0 - 3 premiums, the average price of nickel - iron, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, stainless steel warehouse receipts, the inventory of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, and the profit margin of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel [63][68][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Recommended a reverse - spread between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts due to supply constraints and the Fed's rate - cut and balance - sheet - expansion cycle [17]. - Also included data on the changes in the copper Shanghai - London ratio, the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper, and other relevant arbitrage - related data [75]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Included data on copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [95][97]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [99]. - **Aluminum**: Included data on aluminum option trading volume and open - interest trends, the ratio of call to put open - interest trends, and Shanghai aluminum volatility trends [100].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to a combination of weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1][2] - The overnight London lead futures closed at $2058.5 per ton, down $12.5, reflecting a 0.6% decline, with trading volume at 16,127 lots and open interest at 183,753 lots [1] - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong dollar performance and geopolitical risks, leading to decreased trading activity and a "price drop-volume shrinkage" feedback loop [2] Group 2 - The upstream raw material sector is facing tight supply due to seasonal production cuts, while the smelting segment is experiencing inventory accumulation due to weak downstream demand [1][2] - The lead-acid battery industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with operating rates declining and procurement nearly halted, relying only on minimal storage needs for support [1] - Long-term industry trends suggest a strategic shift by leading companies towards new materials, indicating potential for industrial upgrades despite current market challenges [2]

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17490元，高点17505元，低点17115 元，结算价17280元，收盘17355元/吨，跌115元，跌幅0.66%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量77958手， 持仓量45412手减少8479手。伦铅最新价报2013.5美元，跌11美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17150-17250元/吨，均价17200元，跌210元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17160-17260元/吨，均价17210元，跌175元。今日现货铅市场报价在17050-17260元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水170-升水40元/吨，沪期铅2602合约贴水170-升水40元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，宏观风向扰动叠加年末获利了结，共同触发今日铅价回调。 一方面，美联储内部对降息路径的分歧加剧，令市场对宽松预期进行重新定价，宏观情绪趋于谨慎；另 一方面，铅价年内涨幅显著，在年末流动性收紧、交易活跃度下降的背景下，部分资金选择高位了结。 此外，价格高企已对下游需求形成抑制，企业采购意愿明显下降，叠加技术层面超买信号的显现，共同 推 ...

供应端：内外分化，再生铅是瓶颈 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收涨，开盘报2009.5美元/吨，高点报2030美元，低点报2007美元，尾 盘收于2024.5美元，涨15.5美元，涨幅0.77%；成交量6005手，持仓量178618手增加644手。国内夜盘沪 期铅弱势震荡，尾盘小幅收跌，主力合约沪铅2602收报17365元/吨，跌105，跌幅报0.6%。 长江铅业网(pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：铅市宏观面核心逻辑：美联储"鸽派方向、鹰派节 奏"的复杂预期，为大宗商品提供了流动性宽松的长期"舞台灯光"，但铅价的聚光灯却聚焦于自身"内紧 外松"的独特基本面。 纪要揭示美联储内部"共识在方向，分歧在节奏"，确立了降息周期的长期趋势，这从宏观层面为以美元 计价的工业金属提供了整体支撑。然而，铅市的反应相对"特立独行"：一方面，国内社会库存降至历史 低位，与多数金属的宏观叙事形成共振，提供强劲的底部支撑；另一方面，海外库存高企、下游需求进 入传统淡季，又使其难以完全跟随铜、白银等热门品种的趋势性上涨。因此，铅价当前的核心驱动，仍 是"国内强现实（低库存、高成本）"与"内外弱预期（海外过剩、淡季需求 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17315元，高点报17585元，低点报 17185元，结算价报17355元，收盘17555元/吨，涨290元，涨幅1.68%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量 58769手，持仓量报55558手减少770手。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17200-17300元/吨，均价17250元，涨20元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17185-17285元/吨，均价17235元，上涨25元。今日现货铅市场报价在17100-17300元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水200-贴水0元/吨，沪期铅2602合约贴水255-贴水55元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小涨，当前铅价当前正迎来"内外部宏观红利共振"的双重驱动。在 国内，央行通过MLF等操作持续释放流动性，全年净投放超万亿元，结合"以旧换新"等促消费政策发 力，从需求预期与资金成本两端提供支撑；环保管控升级则从供给侧收紧预期。在海外，美联储释放明 确降息信号，美元延续弱势，吸引国际资金涌入以美元计价的有色金属。内松外宽的宏观环境形成合 力，共同推动铅价在假期清淡市场中逆势 ...

Group 1 - The lead market is experiencing multiple macroeconomic benefits, with expectations of a weaker US dollar due to ongoing interest rate cut predictions from the Federal Reserve, which could open up upward space for non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [2] - The central bank's signals for continued moderate monetary policy easing into 2026 and potential rate cuts before the Spring Festival are boosting market confidence in lead consumption recovery [2] - Domestic policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and consumption promotion measures are expected to enhance demand in downstream sectors like lead-acid batteries [2] Group 2 - Environmental controls have been upgraded in response to heavy pollution, leading to expectations of supply contraction, which is a short-term macro catalyst for lead prices [2] - The lead price is anticipated to rise slightly today, supported by favorable macro liquidity expectations and a stronger yuan reducing import costs [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with traditional automotive battery demand remaining strong while electric bicycle sectors show weakness, impacting downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing upward price momentum driven by macroeconomic support and structural supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The London lead futures market saw a rise, closing at $1999.5 per ton, up $16.5, with a trading volume of 3806 contracts [1]. - The domestic Shanghai lead futures market also showed strong performance, with the main contract closing at 17275 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.82% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained due to environmental regulations affecting raw material procurement and production cuts at some smelters, leading to a significant reduction in supply [1][2]. - Demand is supported by seasonal factors, particularly in the automotive battery replacement and production peak, which provides a solid foundation for lead consumption [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "supply reduction and demand increase" scenario, which is validated by declining social inventory levels [1]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The strong price trend is expected to continue due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, but upward price potential may face challenges from supply recovery and the impact of high prices on downstream consumption [2]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy changes and inventory fluctuations as market volatility may increase [2].