编者按：高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但这几点仍然成立：做多美国股票（偏向 科技股）；做多价值储存资产（黄金 / 白银 / 比特币）； 做空美元（规模适中）； 收益率曲线陡峭化交易（全球适 用）。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. 本周再次提醒我们一个永恒的真理：经济周期固然重要，但股市并非经济本身。 二、市场框架 从技术面来看，整体仍呈积极态势，但在交易界大幅增持风险资产之后，接下来的操作 ...

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3647.55 points, up 0.34%, and a trading volume of 751.33 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11291.43 points, up 1.46%, with a trading volume of 1075.64 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2379.82 points, up 1.96%, with a trading volume of 530.90 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Energy Metals (up 4.82%), Other Power Equipment (up 4.57%), and Batteries (up 3.34%) [2] - Energy Metals had a total trading volume of 574.43 million hands and a net inflow of 182.96 billion yuan, with 12 stocks rising and 1 falling [2] - Other Power Equipment recorded a trading volume of 1257.12 million hands, a net inflow of 225.74 billion yuan, with 28 stocks rising [2] - The sectors with the largest declines included Needs (down 2.99%), Banks (down 0.97%), and Road and Railway Transportation (down 0.27%) [2] - The Banking sector had a trading volume of 3759.01 million hands, a net outflow of 38.92 billion yuan, with 2 stocks rising and 37 falling [2]

Core Viewpoint - The mid-year dividend distribution among A-share companies is gaining momentum, with many companies announcing substantial dividend payouts, reflecting their financial performance and shareholder returns [2][3][9]. Group 1: Dividend Announcements - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed mid-year dividend proposals, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 720 billion yuan [3][4]. - China Mobile plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 594.32 billion Hong Kong dollars (approximately 540 billion yuan), with a per-share dividend of 2.75 Hong Kong dollars (about 2.5 yuan) [3][5]. - Other notable companies like Ningde Times and WuXi AppTec are also planning significant dividends, with amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Performance and Support for Dividends - Many companies proposing high dividends have reported revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year, indicating strong financial performance [6][7]. - For instance, Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, both showing over 30% year-on-year growth [7]. - However, some companies like China Mobile and Cangge Mining experienced slight revenue declines, raising questions about the sustainability of their high dividend payouts [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Dividend Distributions - Three A-share companies are set to implement mid-year dividends next week, including Sujiao Technology and Zhongchong Co., with total payouts of approximately 0.25 billion yuan and 0.61 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - Changshu Bank is also set to distribute its first mid-year dividend since its listing, proposing a payout of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.97 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investor Insights - The trend of increased dividend frequency and the emergence of special dividends are becoming more common among listed companies, reflecting a shift towards shareholder-friendly policies [9]. - Investors are advised to analyze dividend yield, payout ratios, and sustainability when selecting dividend-paying stocks, considering the company's fundamentals and market conditions [9].

截至8月8日，A股已累计有151家上市公司披露2025年半年报，其中135家盈利，16家亏损。从净利润来 看，14家公司净利润超10亿元，中国移动、宁德时代、华能国际排名居前，上半年净利润分别为842.35 亿元、304.85亿元、92.62亿元。从净利润增幅来看，43家公司净利润增幅超50%，智明达、容知日新、 仕佳光子排名居前，上半年净利润增幅分别为2147.93%、2063.42%、1712.00%。 8月8日，A股共38家上市公司披露2025年半年报，其中35家盈利，3家亏损。从营收来看，当日披露半 年报公司中，6家营收超50亿元，中国移动、新洋丰、爱旭股份排名居前，上半年营收分别为5437.69亿 元、93.98亿元、84.46亿元。从净利润来看，当日披露半年报公司中，2家净利润超10亿元。中国移动、 常熟银行、新洋丰排名居前，上半年净利润分别为842.35亿元、19.69亿元、9.51亿元。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.45% closing at 3633.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.64% at 11177.78 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.66% at 2358.95 points [2][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17341 billion, an increase of 1380 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Industry Performance - Most of the Shenwan first-level industries experienced gains today, with the defense and military industry leading the way with a rise of 3.07%, followed by machinery equipment at 1.98%, coal at 1.89%, textile and apparel at 1.36%, and computer industry at 1.30% [2][16] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and biological, construction materials, commercial retail, social services, and banking industries saw declines, with decreases of 0.65%, 0.23%, 0.23%, 0.19%, and 0.14% respectively [2][16] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors included continuous boards, the top ten military industrial groups, aircraft carriers, robotics, military-civilian integration, coal mining, industrial internet, chemical fibers, sensors, and machine vision [3] - Notable declines were observed in sectors such as Tibet revitalization, anti-cancer, and CRO [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a continuous rise, with financing clients increasing their positions for seven consecutive trading days, leading to a financing balance of 1,968.42 billion yuan as of July 29, marking a 10-year high [1] - From July 21 to July 29, the total financing balance increased by 79.25 billion yuan, representing a growth of 4.2% [1] - Among the 31 industries tracked, 29 saw an increase in financing balance, with the pharmaceutical, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors leading in net financing inflows [1][2] Industry Summary - The pharmaceutical industry had a net financing inflow of 9.55 billion yuan, while electronics and non-ferrous metals followed with inflows of 8.05 billion yuan and 5.80 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The only two industries that experienced a decrease in financing balance were oil and petrochemicals, with net outflows of 755.66 million yuan and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery with 21.65 million yuan [3] Individual Stock Insights - A total of 248 stocks saw financing clients increase their positions by over 1 billion yuan from July 21 to July 29 [5] - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows included Xinyi Technology, Shenghong Technology, and Northern Rare Earth, with net purchases of 2.01 billion yuan, 1.25 billion yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and its corresponding ETF reflects a stable investment opportunity amid shifting market preferences towards equity assets due to declining risk-free interest rates and increasing demand for stable returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has seen a net value increase of 20.03% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's one-month cumulative return is 4.12%, with a recent price of 1.08 yuan, down 0.37% [2]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 6.18%, indicating relatively low risk compared to its benchmark [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 47.02 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 21.76 million yuan [3]. - The trading volume of the ETF reached 15.55 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.43% [2]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.093 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The current market environment, characterized by improved risk appetite and a shift of funds from bonds to equities, has led to increased interest in dividend assets due to their stable cash flow and defensive attributes [2]. - The coal sector is expected to see new opportunities due to recovering coal prices and supportive supply-side policies, with recommendations for undervalued mid-cap companies [3]. - The ETF's strategy focuses on high dividend yield and low volatility stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 20.14% of the index [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]

Group 1 - Zhongyou Insurance has acquired 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental, triggering a stake increase [1][2] - Prior to this acquisition, Zhongyou Insurance held 19.784 million shares, representing 4.8927% of the H-share capital [2][3] - After the acquisition, the total shares held increased to 20.51 million, raising the ownership percentage to 5.0722% [2][3] Group 2 - In 2023, insurance companies have made 21 stake increases in listed companies, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [1][5] - Major insurance firms, including Ping An Life and Great Wall Life, have also made significant stake increases in various companies across different sectors [5] - The trend of stake increases is driven by low interest rates, regulatory support for long-term investments, and a focus on high-dividend stocks [5]