V期到日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】129 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 80045 | 80010 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 રેર | રેર | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 80030 SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 70 | 70 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 79955 SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 -35 | -35 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 1879 | 1799 | +80.00 | 4.45% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -73.11 | -72.44 | -0.67 | | 美元/吨 | | 进口图号 -109 | -79 | -29.82 | ...

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium's stock price increased by 2.03% on September 24, reaching 43.69 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.209 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 71.705 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Tianqi Lithium's stock price has risen by 32.39%, with a recent decline of 2.46% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard twice this year, with the most recent net purchase of 381 million CNY on August 11 [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium's main business includes the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds, with revenue composition of 50.54% from lithium compounds and derivatives, and 49.25% from lithium ore [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Tianqi Lithium reported a revenue of 4.833 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 101.62% to 84.41 million CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 7.868 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.137 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3 - Tianqi Lithium is classified under the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically in energy metals and lithium, with involvement in various concept sectors including fertilizers, lithium extraction from salt lakes, solid-state batteries, lithium batteries, and battery recycling [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 270,800, with an average of 5,451 circulating shares per person, an increase of 6.45% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable increases in holdings from several ETFs [3]

【公告速递】盟科药业：控股股东拟变更 每天三分钟公告很轻松 盟科药业：海鲸药业认购后持股20% 成为公司控股股东；长川科技：前三季度净利润同比预增 131%-145%；盛新锂能：拟14.56亿元收购启成矿业21%股权；天成自控：获得国内新能源汽车企业乘 用车座椅总成项目定点…… 聚焦一：盟科药业：海鲸药业认购后持股20% 成为公司控股股东 南京海鲸药业股份有限公司（以下简称"海鲸药业"）与公司签署《附生效条件的向特定对象发行股份认 购协议》，拟认购公司1.64亿股，发行完成后将持有20.00%股份，成为公司控股股东，自然人张现涛将 成为公司实际控制人；本次权益变动属于增持，不触及要约收购。 公告显示，惠绒矿业拥有木绒锂矿的采矿权证，木绒锂矿已查明Li2O资源量98.96万吨，平均品位 1.62%，为四川地区锂矿品位最高的矿山之一，生产规模为300万吨/年，目前正在积极推进矿山开发建 设。公司表示，本次收购启成矿业股权完成后，公司将实现对启成矿业和惠绒矿业的控股，进而控制木 绒锂矿。公司将充分发挥在四川高海拔地区开发锂矿项目的经验，积极推进木绒锂矿开发建设，尽快实 现公司锂矿资源自给率的显著提升，并形成稳定可靠 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

赣锋锂业今日涨停，成交额78.98亿元，换手率12.62%，盘后龙虎榜数据显示，深股通专用席位买入 4.39亿元并卖出3.04亿元，3家机构专用席位净买入4.30亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. In the absence of a clear recession forecast in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under the loose background. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The short - term aluminum price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If the subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, the aluminum price still faces the risk of falling after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term suppression of base metal prices by the Fed's interest rate cut is expected. The cost of scrap aluminum provides strong support for prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is difficult to open. Short - term prices may be boosted by macro factors, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. It is expected that the tin price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [9]. Nickel - The macro environment is improving, but the industrial fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, and the cost support is strengthening, but the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply side has increased news disturbances, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 [14][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,600 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous value. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous value [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,160 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous value. The import loss was 3,610 yuan/ton, down 315.79 yuan/ton from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin was 272,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous value. The import loss was 14,781.16 yuan/ton, down 3.90% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,181 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value. The spot - futures spread was 385 yuan/ton, down 3.75% from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.834% month - on - month; the import volume was 73,000 tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous value. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread was - 120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [14].

Group 1: Core Opportunities from the 14th Five-Year Plan - Morgan Stanley identifies two main upward opportunities for the A-share market from the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan: the anti-involution theme and the structural growth opportunities from service consumption [1][2] - The anti-involution measures are expected to be a major focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to reduce capacity and promote price recovery, which will help various industries achieve cyclical improvement [1][2] - The service consumption sector is projected to benefit from the government's goal of increasing residents' income during the new five-year plan, with significant growth potential in healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment [1][3] Group 2: Anti-Involution Theme - The anti-involution theme is anticipated to create an investment opportunity lasting 18-24 months, aiming to normalize prices and investment returns across affected industries [2] - The "local government corporatization" mechanism has led to severe overcapacity and low investment returns, which may face stricter limitations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), potentially leading to mergers and acquisitions [2] - Key sectors identified for the anti-involution measures include automotive, batteries, lithium, photovoltaics, cement, chemicals, coal, steel, dairy, pork, liquor, and logistics, with notable companies like BYD, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai highlighted [2] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth Potential - Compared to developed markets, China's service consumption has significant growth potential, with current per capita income and service consumption share resembling the U.S. levels in the early 1970s [3] - By 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of about 5%, China's per capita income is expected to reach $7,655, and the service consumption share could rise to 51% [3] - Specific sectors such as healthcare, finance, and cultural entertainment show considerable room for growth, with selected stocks in these areas including Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, and Light Media [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic in the medium term, supported by a shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market [4][5] - However, the short-term market may experience fluctuations due to the current high price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index, which stands at 14.4 times, exceeding the median since 2016 [5] - Effective implementation of anti-involution measures and moderate fiscal support are expected to sustain market expectations for earnings growth in the coming year [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant inflow of funds into the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876), which has seen a year-to-date increase of over 50% as of September 16, 2023 [1][2] - On September 15, 2023, spot gold reached a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and increased market risk aversion [1] - Analysts suggest that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper and boosting global demand, while also reducing borrowing costs for companies, thereby increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities forecasts that the ongoing monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, combined with domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors and improving profitability, will support upward price transmission for metals [2] - As of the end of August, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) have significant weightings in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), which helps to diversify risk compared to investing in single metal sectors [2] - The latest scale of the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reached a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15, 2023 [2]

Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, which has reached a historical high. The expectation is for a shift from recession trading to stagflation trading, suggesting a potential slow bull market for gold [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise if interest rate cuts lead to a soft landing for the economy. The current market sentiment is pricing in stagflation or soft landing scenarios, with domestic consumption expected to increase as the peak season approaches [6] - Aluminum prices are also projected to rise due to increased downstream operating rates during the traditional peak season, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, particularly with upcoming policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Tin prices have increased due to supply shortages, with production rates in key provinces remaining low [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan for a key mining area, although long-term demand remains strong [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6795.38, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3725.17 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 1.49%, Aluminum up 2.80%, Zinc up 3.10%, Lead up 2.07%, and Tin up 2.70%. Precious metals also saw gains, with Gold up 0.46% and Silver up 3.20% [22] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: Copper increased by 7945 tons, Zinc increased by 2724 tons, while Lead decreased by 4085 tons [30]