研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 有色金属周报-锌 短期支撑稳固 2025年9月15日 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国通胀数据升温，就业数据疲软，市场强化美联 | | | | | 储9月降息预期，有色上方压力减弱。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。考虑内外比值持续走差，进口矿 | | | | | 亏损明显，贸易商观望情绪较重，国产矿抢购热度，部分 | | | | | 的地区国产TC报价下调，进口TC则稳步上行，CZSPT小 | 沪锌基本面维持供强需弱的累库 | | | | 组四季度进口加工费定价为120-140美元/干吨。后续来看， | 格局，但随着下游开工回升，及 | | | | 矿企对国产TC持续上调意愿较低，加之高性价比下炼厂 | 国庆假期前的常规备库预期，需 | | | | 多采购国产矿，北方部分炼厂已提前开启冬储备库，后续 | 求端有望好转，累库速度趋缓。 | | | | TC调涨压力较大。 | 此外 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Spot water further expands, downstream high - price fear leads to rigid demand restocking. Under the consumption recovery and domestic supply pressure, the spot water expands compared to the off - season. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing while domestic inventory is increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but overseas factors support the price [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content a) Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $23.01/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 105 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On September 11, 2025, the opening price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, the closing price is 22,250 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 93,321 lots, and the open interest is 100,442 lots. The highest price is 22,285 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 22,145 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 154,200 tons, with a change of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 50,625 tons, with a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3]. b) Market Analysis - Spot water expands, downstream restocks due to rigid demand. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing and there is a risk of cornering the market, while domestic inventory is increasing and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year [4]. c) Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen under rigid - demand procurement. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but the overseas situation provides favorable price support. [4] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $17.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,160 yuan/ton and closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,724 lots, and the open interest was 103,054 lots. The highest price was 22,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September. The domestic smelting profit still exists, and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas situation provides favorable price support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, and potential squeeze - out risk [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] 2. Core View - Domestic apparent consumption of zinc maintains high - speed growth but cannot offset supply pressure, leading to continuous expansion of social inventory. Zinc prices show a weak and volatile trend, with the spot discount widening. There is a contradictory situation between domestic and overseas markets, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, but overseas factors provide favorable price support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $16.46 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan per ton, with a change of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 65 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 9, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,245 yuan per ton and closed at 22,125 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,465 lots, and the open interest was 108,199 lots. The highest price was 22,265 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,115 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Domestic consumption growth is high - speed but can't counter supply pressure, resulting in continuous inventory build - up. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September but still having cost - effectiveness, and import TC expected to rise. Domestic smelting profit exists, and supply pressure is large, with an 28% year - on - year increase in zinc ingot production in August. In the consumption peak season, inventory build - up is likely. Overseas, the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply contracts, consumption is stable, inventory is decreasing, the discount is narrowing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - **Cost**: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: A short - position variety among non - ferrous metals. [6] 2. Core View - The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. However, the zinc spot market is under pressure from increasing inventory, with a slight expansion of the spot discount. The smelting profit remains high, and the supply pressure persists. The domestic inventory build - up is expected even in the consumption peak season, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, while the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5] 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $2.95/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton, closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,174 lots, and the open interest was 108,718 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 65,525 tons, a change of - 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Macro and Spot**: The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, due to continuous inventory increase, the spot discount slightly expands, and traders have difficulty maintaining prices, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. [5] - **Cost**: The import TC is rising, with the general ore quote reaching $110/ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product revenue, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. Zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, with unchanged current and expected supply - side pressure. [5] - **Consumption**: Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build - up is expected. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View - The absolute price of zinc continues to decline, and the spot market is difficult to improve. Although the spot discount remains stable, the trading is still sluggish. The transportation in the Tianjin market is affected by the parade and the SCO meeting, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is relatively good. The import TC is still rising, the smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains. The current pressure on the supply side and the expected future pressure remain unchanged. The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face greater pressure [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$8.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -100 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton, closed at 22,205 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,478 lots, and the open interest was 105,576 lots. The highest price was 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,180 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons compared with the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons, a change of -3,650 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: Import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory with an upward trend [4] - **Smelting**: The industry smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with unchanged supply - side pressure [4] - **Consumption**: The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Zinc price may be relatively weak when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The decline in the absolute price center has not stimulated the improvement of the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The discount in the Guangdong region has further widened. The import TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$5.22/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of -90 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,410 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,217 lots, and the open interest was 69,630 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,445 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,310 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 135,400 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The decline in zinc prices has not improved the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]