Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Neutral [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Bullish [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Bullish [2] - Platinum: Neutral [2] - Palladium: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Iron Ore: Bearish [2] - Rebar: Bearish [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish [2] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral [2] - Silicomanganese: Neutral [2] - Coke: Neutral [2] - Coking Coal: Neutral [2] - Steam Coal: Bearish [2] - Logs: Bearish [2] - Paraxylene: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [2] - MEG: Neutral [2] - Rubber: Bearish [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Neutral [2] - LLDPE: Bearish [2] - PP: Bearish [2] - Caustic Soda: Bearish [2] - Pulp: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Methanol: Neutral [2] - Urea: Neutral [2] - Styrene: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2] - LPG: Neutral [2] - Propylene: Neutral [2] - PVC: Bearish [2] - Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Neutral [2] - Staple Fiber: Neutral [2] - Bottle Chip: Neutral [2] - Offset Printing Paper: Bearish [2] - Pure Benzene: Neutral [2] - Palm Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Meal: Neutral [2] - Soybean: Neutral [2] - Corn: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Bearish [2] - Cotton: Bullish [2] - Eggs: Neutral [2] - Hogs: Bearish [2] - Peanuts: Neutral [2] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. It assesses the current situation of each commodity based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic news, and gives corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities. For example, for gold, the rising risk - aversion sentiment is noted; for copper, the strengthening of LME spot and firm price are emphasized; for zinc, it is expected to trade in a range. Each commodity's analysis takes into account its unique fundamentals and market news [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. ETF holdings have slightly changed, and inventories have different trends. Macro - economic news such as China's economic data and geopolitical issues may affect the price [6]. - **Silver**: The price is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations. Similar to gold, there are changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventories. The price of silver futures and spot shows certain volatility [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot has strengthened, and the price remains firm. The trading volume of domestic and international copper futures has decreased, and the open interest has changed slightly. The inventory of LME copper has increased, while that of SHFE copper has decreased. The premium of LME copper has increased. Macro - economic news and industry - related events such as Chile's copper mine plan and power grid investment may impact the price [10]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to trade in a range. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The inventory of LME zinc has decreased, and the premium has changed. China's economic data and EU - US trade issues are the influencing factors [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME lead has decreased significantly [16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The price of domestic tin futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of SHFE tin has decreased, and the price of spot tin has declined [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price of domestic aluminum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME aluminum has decreased. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production and the price of alumina are important factors [24]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to continue to decline. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The average price of domestic alumina has declined [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Platinum**: It is expected to trade in a box - shaped range. The price of platinum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Palladium**: It follows the range - bound trend. The price of palladium futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Nickel**: The repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, and the nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of domestic nickel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. Indonesia's policies on nickel mining and production are the key influencing factors [32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream procurement has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upstream production cuts have disturbed the market, and the price of the futures has rebounded. The price of industrial silicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The inventory of industrial silicon has changed slightly [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news. The price of polysilicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of polysilicon has increased [40]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of iron ore futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of imported iron ore has declined [43]. - **Rebar**: Affected by emergencies, the raw materials have dragged down the finished products. The price of rebar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rebar has declined [46]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, affected by emergencies and raw - material drag. The price of hot - rolled coil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot hot - rolled coil has declined [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand - side expectation is tightening, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot ferrosilicon has declined [50]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to ferrosilicon, with tightening demand - side expectation and wide - range fluctuations. The price of silicomanganese futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot silicomanganese has declined [50]. - **Coke**: Affected by downstream accidents, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coke futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coke has remained stable [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coking coal futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coking coal has remained stable [54]. - **Steam Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to have a weak adjustment. The price of steam coal in various regions has declined [58]. - **Logs**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of log futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot logs has remained stable [60]. - **Paraxylene**: The cost is weak, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of paraxylene futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot paraxylene has remained stable [64]. - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee. The price of PTA futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PTA has increased [64]. - **MEG**: The downward space of valuation is limited. The price of MEG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of MEG in ports has decreased slightly [64]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rubber has declined [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to be in a short - term weak operation. The price of synthetic rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot synthetic rubber has declined [76]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products has increased, and the spot trading has weakened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LLDPE has remained stable [79]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. The price of PP futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PP has declined [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: The downward trend still has pressure. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the price of spot caustic soda has declined [84]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of pulp futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pulp has remained stable [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot glass has remained stable [94]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of methanol futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot methanol has declined [97]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The price of urea futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot urea has remained stable [102]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The price of styrene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot styrene has increased [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soda ash has remained stable [108]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. The price of LPG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LPG has changed [113]. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The price of propylene futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot propylene has remained stable [113]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PVC has remained stable [120]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term fluctuation will decrease. The price of fuel oil futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot low - sulfur fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is expected to be in a temporary oscillation market. The price of the index futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The shipping capacity, geopolitical situation, and demand factors are the key influencing factors [125]. - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee is at a low level. The price of staple - fiber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot staple fiber has declined [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of bottle - chip futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot bottle chip has declined [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The price of offset - printing - paper futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot offset printing paper has remained stable [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation. The price of pure - benzene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pure benzene has increased [150]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of production cuts. The price of palm - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot palm oil has remained stable [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The themes of US soybeans are insufficient, and the rebound height is limited. The price of soybean - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean oil has increased slightly [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the closure of the US soybean market overnight, the domestic soybean - meal futures followed the rapeseed - meal futures to correct. The price of soybean - meal futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean meal has declined [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The price of soybean futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean has remained stable [159]. - **Corn**: The price has corrected. The price of corn futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot corn has declined [162]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be sorted at a low level. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot sugar has declined [165]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot cotton has declined [171]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment of the far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has declined, and the trading volume has changed. The price of spot eggs has increased [178]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has weakened, and the expectation of the peak season has decreased. The price of hog futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot hogs has declined [181]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of peanut futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot peanuts has remained stable [185].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Short-term high prices suppress demand, but low LME inventories and mid-term demand are still valid. Copper prices are expected to oscillate to digest short-term selling pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mid-term supply and demand are promising. Short-term inventory accumulation concerns may cause prices to oscillate at high levels, but the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. - Aluminum: The aluminum market is still dominated by macro and capital sentiment. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand and are prone to rise rather than fall [43]. - Nickel: Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. - Zinc: The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation to digest the previous increase and wait for new directional guidance [105]. Summary by Directory Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main contract reached a high of 105,500 and then fell below 100,000. LME copper also showed a similar trend. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - Supply is still at a high level, but demand is weak in the short term due to high prices. However, the market is generally optimistic about the future demand growth space of copper. LME low inventories support copper prices, and short-term spot pressure is limited. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate import TC continues to decline, and the supply of cold materials is abundant. SMM expects that the output of smelters in January will decrease by 14,500 tons month-on-month. The import window for refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of downstream waste copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire enterprises have all declined. However, after the short-term decline in copper prices, downstream orders have been released. The current decline in operating rates is mainly due to high prices rather than a substantial lack of demand [7]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased, and it is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of "loose supply and cautious consumption" next week, and inventories will continue to accumulate [16]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, driving the spot price up. The rise in the first half of the week was due to supply concerns and capital enthusiasm, and the second half of the week was in high-level oscillation due to capital selling. The destocking process was interrupted this week [25]. - Supply growth is limited, and demand has not significantly stalled. Although the short-term inventory accumulation concerns are emerging, the mid-term supply and demand situation is good, and the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 115 tons. It is expected that the output in January will decrease compared with December last year, and the growth of lithium mica output is restricted. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from raw materials has increased [26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The output of cathode materials has declined, but the orders in the energy storage field have increased month-on-month. The final business conditions of ternary materials are expected to be favorable to manufacturers, and some iron lithium plants are expected to resume production [26]. - **Spot Side**: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The destocking process has been interrupted, and short-term concerns are emerging [34][35]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - At the beginning of 2026, aluminum prices rose sharply, and the import window was closed. Alumina and aluminum alloy also showed corresponding trends. Overseas speculative funds' enthusiasm for going long increased [40]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually easing, and the price of alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The short-term supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and high prices have suppressed downstream demand. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand [42][43]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The price of domestic bauxite has slightly decreased, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. The price of imported bauxite has also decreased, and the market is trading lightly [44]. - **Alumina**: It has rebounded with the general trend, and the import window remains open. The domestic alumina plant maintains a high level of operation [47][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window for aluminum ingots remains closed, and the net import in November has declined [56][63]. - **Downstream Consumption**: High aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the operating rates of processing enterprises are differentiated. It is expected that the operating rates will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [66]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [71]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. The spot market has obvious speculative inventory phenomena. The import window remains closed [75]. - Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable this week. In November 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased month-on-month [80]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: In December 2025, the national nickel pig iron output decreased month-on-month. The supply side continued to hold prices firm, and the demand side had some activity but still had differences between upstream and downstream [87]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In December, the monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China increased month-on-month [92]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt continued to decline this week. In December, the monthly output of nickel sulfate decreased month-on-month [98]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the market sentiment is strong. The inquiry and transaction are relatively active [103]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Geopolitical risks have driven up the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals, but the zinc price has risen weakly this round. It has fallen back from a high level in the second half of the week. The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation [104][105]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. The import window for zinc ore is open, but the transaction is light. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in January will increase month-on-month [112][113]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide are different. Galvanizing has increased slightly, while die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide have decreased. The overall demand is weak in the off-season [114][115]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic inventories have increased, and LME zinc inventories have also increased [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - Supply pressure is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.00 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,502 lots, and the open interest was 93,470 lots. The highest price was 23,435 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,130 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the zinc market is under pressure due to a rebound in the US dollar and a decline in the stock market, leading to a slight drop in London zinc prices by 0.08% to $3084 per ton [1][2] - The domestic refined zinc exports are replenishing overseas inventories, causing a significant drop in LME premiums, while the disparity between domestic and international markets is decreasing [2] - The demand side is showing weakness, with a seasonal downturn and lackluster pre-holiday consumption, resulting in pressure on spot premiums and a decline in confidence among holders [2] Group 2 - The recent drop in copper and tin prices has negatively impacted market sentiment, contributing to the softening of zinc prices [1] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties providing short-term risk premium support for oil prices, which limited the decline in zinc prices, overall trading activity remains sluggish [1][2] - The outlook suggests that spot zinc prices are likely to decline further [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas spot premium remains high and difficult to decline, overseas inventory is at a low level, export profit increases, domestic spot premium shows a positive trend, domestic warehouse receipt inventory declines slightly, and the fundamentals are all favorable. The domestic social inventory continues to decline. In November, the smelting output decreased month - on - month and was significantly lower than expected. The continuous upward repair of spot premium reflects both consumption intensity and supply tightness. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline. High - altitude mines in China have entered the winter shutdown and maintenance period. The rapid decline of TC price and the decline of absolute price have caused the smelting comprehensive cost to face losses, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decline in the later stage. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December increases, and the future consumption is optimistic [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $250.98 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,700 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,690 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,745 yuan per ton and closed at 22,755 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 106,416 lots, and the open interest was 104,585 lots. The highest price was 22,800 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,695 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of the zinc market are turning positive, with low LME inventory levels, high overseas premiums, and a continuously open Chinese export window. Domestic social inventory is declining, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in the future. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption despite some fluctuations in the US December interest - rate cut expectations [4] Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $163.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,450 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 50 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,410 yuan per ton, up 70 yuan, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton, closed at 22,415 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The trading volume was 114,645 lots, and the open interest was 101,749 lots. The highest price was 22,565 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,410 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 148,100 tons, down 2,900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, up 875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are favorable. Although LME inventory is rising, the absolute level is low, overseas premiums are high, and the Chinese export window is open. Domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is falling. Despite low downstream procurement enthusiasm, spot premiums are stable due to low arrivals. TC prices are falling at home and abroad, and smelting costs are facing losses, which may lead to reduced supply - side pressure in the future [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [5]