需求方面，半导体行业延续景气，国内锡焊料企业开工率呈现维稳态势。11月份样本企业锡焊料产量环比增加0.95%，开工率较10月份小 幅上涨0.69%。 分地区来看，华南地区的锡焊料厂商整体展现出更强韧性，开工水平大体维持稳定。原因在于，当地产业链更深度嵌入汽车、AI服务器 等新兴应用领域，这些下游板块的订单相对充足且预期向好，为生产端带来了较为持续的支撑与成长空间。此外，华南聚集了数量众 多、体量不大但业务链条较完整的灵活型企业，在应对短期需求变化时调整节奏更快，能够更好对冲市场波动的不利影响。与之形成对 比的是，华东地区的锡焊料企业开工情况受压更为明显。该区域的客户结构更偏向传统的消费电子与家电板块，而在11月份，这些传统 行业订单恢复节奏偏慢，"旺季不旺"的格局凸显，导致整体交易情绪偏弱，开工积极性也随之下降。 供给端：10月锡矿进口有所回升，矿端紧缺略有改善 根据海关公布数据，2025年10月国内锡矿进口量有所回升，10月份国内锡矿进口量为1.16万吨（折合约5050金属吨）环比33.49%，同 比-22.54%，较9月份上涨1482金属吨（9月份折合3568金属吨）。1-10月累计进口量为10.3万吨， ...

12月10日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报314820.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及324210.00元，下方探低312350.00元，涨幅达2.22%。 据调研国内20家锡冶炼厂(涉及精锡产能31万吨，总产能覆盖率97%)结果显示，2025年11月精锡产量为 15490吨，环比减少0.82%，同比减少6%，2025年1-11月精锡累计产量为15.85万吨，累计同比减少 1.74%。冶炼厂11月开工率为61.14%。 12月9日，LME锡库存录得3050.00吨，较上一日减少25吨，减少幅度为0.81%；最近一周，LME锡库存 累计减少95.00吨，减少幅度为3.02%；最近一个月，LME锡库存累计增加15.00吨，增加幅度为0.49%。 后市来看，沪锡期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 广州期货表示，当前市场关注点转向明日凌晨美联储12月议息会议，市场预期将降息25个基点，但任何 关于2026年降息步伐将会放缓的迹象都可能不利于风险资产表现，整体情绪偏谨慎。基本面，随着刚果 (金)局势缓和，市场对于矿端供应扰动的担忧逐步减弱，高锡价对需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

（文华综合） 当前锡价高位运行背景下，下游企业询价及挂单意愿清淡，观望情绪愈发浓厚，现货市场成交维持平淡 态势。下游订单以刚需为主，消费电子领域需求不振，终端企业当前以消化库存为核心，刚需采买节奏 平缓，终端订单恢复进程缓慢，整体需求端支撑力度偏弱。综合来看，锡市呈现"供应担忧主导价格上 涨，实际需求支撑不足"的分化格局，锡价受地缘政治扰动及供应端情绪推动显著走高，资金参与度较 高，沪锡持仓量突破10万手，短期内资金炒作氛围浓厚。 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席，美元小幅收跌，且日债拍卖 企稳，修复市场情绪，锡价震荡运行。当前刚果金武装冲突尚未对锡矿生产构成实质性冲击，但运输成 本上升，加剧市场对脆弱供应端的担忧。短期宏观中性偏好，且供应端支撑强化，预计锡价仍易涨难 跌。 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约收涨2.15%，报312370元/吨。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面： 一是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续 升温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推 动锡价走强。 当前国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have shown a slight rebound, ending a three-day decline, with the main contract rising by 1.19% to 293,370 yuan/ton. However, the recovery in tin ore supply remains slow, limiting the production capacity of smelting enterprises [1]. Group 1: Supply Situation - Tin ore supply is expected to increase on a month-on-month basis, with production levels showing a slight rise [2]. - In Yunnan, production recovery is evident as smelting enterprises resume operations after maintenance, although raw material supply remains tight, leading to intense competition among companies [1]. - In Jiangxi, production has slightly decreased due to ongoing raw material supply constraints and policy issues [1]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from downstream sectors remains weak, particularly in consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries, with November component production declining compared to October [1]. - The home appliance market has seen a noticeable reduction in orders, with November production also down from October levels [1]. - Despite adjustments in China-U.S. tariff measures, overall foreign trade levels remain weak, contributing to a sustained period of low demand [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic sentiment is expected to weaken marginally, leading to continued high-level fluctuations in tin prices [2]. - High prices are further suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, with enterprises primarily stocking for essential needs [2].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with the main contract rising by 1.04% to 286,560 yuan/ton, influenced by tight domestic ore supply despite long-term easing expectations from Myanmar's Wa State resumption of production [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic mining sources remain tight, impacting the overall supply of tin [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi stabilized at a high of 69.13%, but further increases are limited due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [1] - The seasonal maintenance of large smelting plants in Yunnan has concluded, leading to production recovery, but the supply of tin ore remains constrained [1] Market Conditions - Despite the approval of mining licenses in Myanmar's Wa State, actual export volumes are significantly below normal levels due to the rainy season and slow resumption of production, failing to fill the supply gap [1] - Recent declines in tin prices have spurred some downstream replenishment demand, but limited warehouse arrivals have resulted in a reduction of social tin inventory [1] Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures comments that recent price fluctuations are primarily driven by macroeconomic disturbances, with a slight accumulation expected under domestic baseline conditions, while overseas markets continue to experience low inventory levels [1] - Overall, the divergence between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals suggests that tin prices are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, with slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. Although the mining permits have been approved, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level, and the supply gap cannot be effectively filled. The long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support the tin price. It is expected that the tin price will remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, but the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. The import volume from countries like Congo (Kinshasa) decreased due to shipping, but it is at a normal level. The import volume from Myanmar is increasing, and short - term supply shows improvement [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is slow and difficult to increase production before November. The raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises persists, and the tin concentrate processing fee (TC) in Yunnan remains low. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin is insufficient due to a significant reduction in scrap, and the refined tin output remains low. The raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance in September, with capacity utilization likely to remain low [12]. - Demand side: Traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate show weak consumption, but emerging fields like new energy vehicles and AI servers provide long - term demand support for the tin price. In the peak season of October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. As of the end of October, the total social inventory of major tin ingots in China was 7698 tons, a decrease of 654 tons from September [12]. - Conclusion: In October, the tin price fluctuated mainly following the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply tension supports the tin price, and it is expected to remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains low [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export are presented [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - Semiconductor sales: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [44]. - Consumer electronics: The production of domestic computers and smartphones is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [46]. - Household appliances: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [48][50]. - Photovoltaic: The production of photovoltaic cells and cumulative photovoltaic installation in China are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [52]. - Other fields: Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - Downstream enterprises: The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic apparent tin consumption are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as China's social inventory and LME inventory are presented [61]