Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report on green finance and new energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to news - related risks [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It will oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [2][10] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news has boosted sentiment [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,330 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from T - 1. There were also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [4] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental issues in Indonesian industrial parks, changes in mining quotas, production suspensions due to losses, and production cuts in Chinese steel mills [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 87,580 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain [11] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and Jiangte Motor's subsidiary resumed production [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1. The PS2511 closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of related products [15] - **News**: T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers from Corning, with expected deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 美国抵押贷款利率创四个月最大降幅（单周降10基点至6.67%），叠加美财长表态暗示9月或降息50基点，美元指数走弱支撑贵金属。现货贴水4.1元/克反映实物需求平 稳，地缘政策扰动（如美俄资源合作动向）加剧避险情绪，基本面利多因素主导短期走势。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]