Group 1: Bilateral Cooperation and Trade - The year 2025 marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Indonesia, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, highlighting significant historical milestones [1] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Indonesia is projected to reach approximately $147.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, with China being Indonesia's largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years [1] - The first Global High-Quality Belt and Road Summit was held in Jakarta on May 25, 2024, emphasizing sustainable infrastructure and development goals [1] Group 2: Nickel Industry Development - Indonesia is a major player in the global nickel supply, with its nickel production surging from 1.04 million tons in 2021 (38% of global production) to 1.8 million tons in 2023, exceeding 50% of global output [9] - The export value of nickel products from Indonesia has increased significantly, from $1 billion in 2014 to $20.9 billion in 2023, indicating a shift from raw material exports to high-value nickel processing products [9] - Chinese companies, such as Greeenme and Huayou Cobalt, are heavily investing in Indonesia's nickel mining and processing sectors, establishing a full industrial chain from nickel resource development to battery manufacturing [5][7] Group 3: Sustainable Development and Green Technology - The Belt and Road Initiative is positioned as a pathway for both open and green development, promoting cooperation in green infrastructure, energy, and transportation [10] - A joint research laboratory for new energy materials and metallurgy technology was established in Bandung, Indonesia, with an investment of $30 million, aimed at advancing sustainable mining and resource utilization [8] - The adoption of high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) technology for nickel production is highlighted for its lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods, aligning with global trends towards green and low-carbon resources [11]

Report Title - Nickel: Short-term cost support, weak expectations limit flexibility [1] - Stainless Steel: Negative feedback leads to an increase in marginal production cuts, making a deep decline difficult [2] Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has short-term cost support, but weak expectations limit its upward flexibility [1] - The stainless steel market experiences negative feedback, resulting in an increase in marginal production cuts, and it is difficult for prices to decline significantly [2] Fundamental Tracking Nickel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,480, down 2,920 from T - 5 and 3,700 from T - 22 [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 181,192, up 79,974 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 1 imported nickel is 120,375, down 3,175 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 954, up 5 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 250, down 37 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate import profit is - 2,830, up 382 from T - 5 [2] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,690, down 190 from T - 5 [2] - The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 139,550, up 21,935 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100, down 75 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, unchanged from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 5 [2] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will take effect on April 26, 2025 [2] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [3] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial production stage, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [5] - The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the government plans to implement an export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue the shutdown and maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7] - The trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]

Core Insights - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is reported at 123,300.00 CNY/ton, with a premium of 1,130.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton for the main contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [2] - Nickel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, with a cumulative reduction of 1,022 tons (4.42%) over the past week and 2,680 tons (10.81%) over the past month [3] Price Overview - The market prices for 1 nickel (Ni9990) vary, with quotes of 124,750 CNY/ton in Guangzhou, 125,000 CNY/ton in Shanghai from Shanghai Jincang Material Company, and 123,350 CNY/ton from Shanghai Huato Nonferrous Metals Market [2] - The ex-factory price for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is reported at 124,300 CNY/ton in Jinchang, Gansu Province [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic nickel pig iron supply has significantly decreased year-on-year, while Indonesian supply remains high [4] - April saw an increase in electrolytic nickel production, and stainless steel production remained at high levels [4] - The demand outlook may be affected by ongoing trade disputes, but short-term improvements in macroeconomic conditions are anticipated to support prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental logic of Shanghai nickel may narrow the nickel price oscillation range, and market news disturbs the market sentiment. The nickel price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with news affecting sentiment but not recommending excessive chasing of highs. If the contradiction at the Indonesian ore end intensifies, the overall oscillation center may rise slightly, but the upside potential may be limited by the economics of conversion [1]. - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and has a chance of a slight recovery in the medium - term. The bottom space is relatively clear, and if the ore shortage persists and the steel mill production cut is realized, the market may recover slightly, but the recovery space is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: Indonesian high - grade nickel ore is in short supply, with the premium rising by 1 - 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars per wet ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 16 US dollars. The short - term inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the inventory decreases marginally. The smelting end is affected by stainless steel negative feedback and production cuts, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. The conversion to high - grade nickel matte may limit the upside of refined nickel valuation [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The supply and demand are weak. The seasonal inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory accumulates marginally in the off - season. Steel mills may cut production, and the cash cost is about 12,900 yuan per ton. The ore contradiction may limit the bottom space of nickel iron [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 15 tons to 43,691 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,648 tons to 197,670 tons [3]. - The nickel iron inventory at the end of April was 28,395.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 26% and 17% respectively [4]. - Stainless steel social inventory was 1,112,968 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. Cold - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 3.3% week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 110,900 wet tons to 6.9652 million wet tons [6]. Market News - Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, nickel iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will be implemented on April 26, 2025 [7]. - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel iron RKEF successfully produced nickel iron and entered the trial production stage [7]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - There are rumors about the Philippines' nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time need to be verified [1][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 123,450 yuan, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,720 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 111,203 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 64,097 lots [10]. - Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel iron prices, and stainless steel product prices are also provided in the table [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized [1] - For stainless steel, the short - term price is dominated by cost logic, while the medium - term supply and demand still face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 131,600, up 1,570 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel futures was 13,535, up 95 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 249,977, an increase of 52,503 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel futures was 206,853, an increase of 39,941 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 131,200, up 1,250 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price in Jiangsu) was 1,029, up 3 compared to T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,625, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The production line of Indonesia's GNI nickel - iron project has gradually resumed after production cuts in January - February 2025, with the capacity utilization rate increasing from 30% to 50% in March, and the output is expected to increase by about 0.2 million metal tons per month in March. It plans to achieve normal production by the end of April [2] - The Indonesian government has proposed to adjust non - tax national revenues, raising the resource tax rates of nickel ore, nickel - iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte from 10%, 2%, 5%, and 2% to the floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [3] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the United States in response to US tariff threats [4] - The Ramu nickel - cobalt project's Basamuk HPAL plant has successfully resumed full - load production, and its MHP guidance output in 2025 is about 32,000 nickel metal tons [5] - Indonesia's ESDM signaled that new rules related to increasing mineral and coal royalties will be issued before Eid al - Fitr or March 31, 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [5]