Core Viewpoint - In January, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, reflecting a decline in manufacturing activity and indicating a contraction in the sector [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with some industries entering a traditional off-peak period and insufficient market demand contributing to the decline in PMI [1] - Production continues to expand in certain sectors, but industries such as petroleum, coal, and automotive are showing reduced market demand, leading to a decrease in production [1] Group 2: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials and factory output have both increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking rises of 3 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Performance - Large enterprises maintain a PMI above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating ongoing support for the manufacturing sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, suggesting a positive development trend in related industries [1] Group 4: Business Expectations - Enterprises remain optimistic about future production and operational activities, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.6%, continuing to exceed the critical point [1]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI index for January 2026 is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - The service sector PMI is 49.5%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 2: Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1%, indicating accelerated expansion[3] - The factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months it has exceeded the critical point[3] - The service sector sales price index improved by 0.8 percentage points to 48.9%[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 52.0% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points, influenced by low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - The construction sector's new orders and business activity expectation indices dropped by 7.3 and 7.6 percentage points, respectively[3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally with supply - demand converging and enterprise - scale differentiation intensifying, while price indices rose. The service industry PMI slightly dropped and the construction industry's prosperity significantly declined, thus more efforts are needed to promote economic - stabilizing policies [1][10][34]. - In January, the shock of sentiment was gradually digested, and the bond market recovered after adjustment. However, there were still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range in February. Two structural investment opportunities are recommended: the allocation opportunities of 5Y government - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds, and the spread - compression opportunities such as 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds [4][34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - month PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January, returning to the contraction range and being weaker than the seasonal average. The production index expansion slowed, demand was under pressure, price indices rose, and enterprises replenished inventory passively with a decline in purchasing willingness [10]. - In the non - manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the construction industry's business activity index dropped by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, both showing different degrees of deviation from seasonal performance [11][14]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Demand - side Operation Under Pressure, Both Price Indices Rising - **Production**: The manufacturing PMI production index was 50.6% in January, down 1.1 percentage points month - on - month, weaker than the seasonal level. The slowdown was due to factors like cold weather and approaching Spring Festival, especially the over 4 - percentage - point decline in the consumer goods manufacturing production index [17]. - **Demand**: The new order index and new export order index of manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. The "new order - new export order" index dropped to 1.4%. Seasonal factors and external policy changes affected demand, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased [19]. - **Enterprise Scale and New Kinetic Energy**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises decreased by 0.5, 1.1, and 1.2 percentage points respectively. New kinetic energy industries continued to lead, while traditional industries' prosperity declined [20]. - **Price**: Affected by multiple factors, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points month - on - month. The index difference reached 5.5 percentage points, compressing the profit space of mid - and downstream enterprises [23]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory index decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the finished - product inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points. The economic kinetic energy index decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the purchasing volume index dropped to 48.7%. The start of the replenishment cycle depends on the recovery of market demand [24]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Slight Decline in Service Industry PMI, Significant Decline in Construction Industry - **Service Industry**: In January, the service industry PMI slightly declined. The strong support from the financial industry, the stable development of new kinetic energy, and the good performance of some consumption - related service industries maintained its stability. However, the real - estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, and Spring Festival consumption may boost the consumption - related service industries [29]. - **Construction Industry**: Due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the construction industry's business activity index decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8% in January. Both housing construction and civil engineering construction activities slowed down, and the off - season characteristics may continue in February [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In January, after the shock of sentiment was digested, the bond market recovered. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped to the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. With insufficient broad - money expectations and increased local - bond supply in February, the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range. Two parts of structural investment opportunities are recommended [4][34][35].

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 对于制造业PMI回落的原因，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读时提到，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不 足。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年12月制造业PMI超预期回升至50.1%，产需全面改善下，春节备货情况有所前置，导致本月 数据回落。 从供需来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于56.0%，产需释放较快。 需要注意的是，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区 间。 另外，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 关注"价"的积极信号 ——1 月制造业 PMI 点评 1、制造业 PMI：短期因素叠加，景气重返收缩区间 （1）新订单：1 月新订单降至 49.2%，再度回到收缩区间，反映上月需求透 支效应。在 12 月冲刺之后，1 月需求释放透支。下游春节提前放假、降温天 气也导致需求放缓。另外，新出口订单环比降幅低于新订单总体，显示内需订 单放缓的力度相对更大。 （2）生产：生产节奏放缓，但仍在扩张区间。受需求端承压影响，生产相应 波动，增势有所放缓。其中，消费品制造业生产指数下滑 4pct 至荣枯线以下 是主要拖累，而代表新动能的行业生产仍在高景气，分化有所加大。 （3）外贸：进口偏强、出口订单转弱。新出口订单环比-1.2pct 至 47.8%，收 缩再度加剧。1 月美国针对部分高技术制造品类加征关税，美欧贸易关税摩擦 也有波动，叠加临近春节，新出口订单增势环比放缓。进口环比+0.3pct 至 47.3%，生产景气对进口需求或有一定支撑。 （4）价格：原材料购进价格、出厂价格环比+3.0pct、+1.7pct 至 56.1%、50.6%， 其中后者自 2024 年 5 月以来首次回 ...

格隆汇1月31日｜据中新网，1月31日开幕的黑龙江省第十四届人民代表大会第四次会议上，扩内需、促 消费再次成为政府工作报告里的重点工作，2026年，黑龙江省将举办"购在龙江"等促消费活动超2000 场，发放政府消费券8亿元以上。 2025年，黑龙江省开展提振消费专项行动，扩围实施消费品以旧换 新，组织系列促消费活动，拉动消费728.4亿元。激发首发经济、直播电商等有潜能消费，新设国际国 内知名首店15家，网上零售额同比增长14.7%。投资结构持续优化，高技术制造业投资同比增长 11.5%，民间投资占比提高2.2个百分点。1000个省级重点产业项目完成投资1865.7亿元、同比增长4%， 243个重点项目建成投产。招商引资效果明显，新落地项目、实际利用内资分别同比增长18.7%、 31.3%。 ...

第 1页 共 4页 2026 年中国经济形势展望——新质驱动， 能级跃迁-ciic 中智咨询 一、研究背景评估 二、范围与边界确认 三、核心摘要提炼 四、关键数据抓取与呈现 五、风险与机遇诊断 第 2页 共 4页 一、研究背景评估 三、核心摘要提炼 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | 第 3页 共 4页 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | | 1 | 经济增长换挡提质：2026 年 GDP 预计保持 5%左右增速，从高速增长转向高质量发展，依赖 | | | 新质生产力驱动。 | | 2 | 投资结构剧变：投资从房地产驱动转向"两重"建设（国家重大战略项目与重点安全能力建设） | | | 与高技术制造，设备更新、绿色能源、新基建成为关键。 | | 3 | 消费呈现"沙漏型"分层：消费升级与降级并存，高端体验与高性价比两端走强，中端市场承 | | | 压，服务消费、县域消费、银发经济等成为新增长点。 | | 4 | 外贸韧性增强：出口从"新三样"向"新新三样"升级，市场从欧美向"一带一路"多元化拓 | | | 展，进口服务于产业升级与消费升级。 ...

分企业类型看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企业 PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点。 中新社北京1月31日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局1月31日公布，由于部分制造业行业进入传统淡 季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，1月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)回落至49.3%，但企业预期仍保 持乐观。 1月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料 精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发 展信心较强。(完) 具体而言，1月份，生产指数为50.6%，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有所回 落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于56.0%，产 需释放较快；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、汽车等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业市场需求放缓， 企业生产有所回落。 受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，1月份，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 56.1%和50.6%，比上月 ...

数据显示，1月份，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场 需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 56.0%，产需释放较快；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、汽车等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业市场 需求放缓，企业生产有所回落。 霍丽慧分析，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别 为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界点以 上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。 数据显示，1月份，大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企 业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 此外，高技术制造业持续领跑。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高 水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能 行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 "生产经营活动 ...

时下，车厘子大量上市。不少消费者有这种感受：进口水果的价格更亲民了，实现"水果自由"的内涵更 丰富了。从欧洲的红酒、巧克力，到南美洲的肉类、鱼虾，再到大洋洲的乳品，全球好物纷至沓来，不 断满足人民美好生活需要。 政策引领，促需求释放。去年，消费品以旧换新政策惠及超3.6亿人次，带动相关商品销售额超2.6万亿 元。2025年，内需对经济增长的贡献率超67%，其中消费贡献率达52%，比上年提高5个百分点。英国 《金融时报》刊文："不要低估中国消费者。" 成长性，得益于产业结构持续优化。 庞大需求激发创新创造。人工智能大模型加速奔跑，脑机接口迈向产业化，低空经济振翅高飞，回望 2025年，产业向新动能强。数据为证：规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加 值的比重分别达到36.8%和17.1%，民用无人机、工业机器人产量分别比上年增长37.3%和28%。 市场成长性越强，对全球资源越具有吸引力。中国市场正是凭借极强的成长性，吸引外资布局中国 近期发布的两则新闻，很值得关注。 一则是，2025年，中国货物进口规模再创新高，达18.5万亿元。另一则是中国美国商会发布的调查报告 显示，对中国市场增长持乐观 ...