11月14日，美股三大指数大幅低开，大型科技股多数下跌，黄金、白银跳水，比特币跌破10万美元。 不过此后，纳指转涨，标普几乎完全收复盘初失地，道指仍然跌300点跌幅超过0.6%。（编者注：截至收盘，道指跌309.74点，跌幅为0.65%，报47147.48 点；纳指涨30.23点，涨幅为0.13%，报22900.59点；标普500指数跌3.38点，跌幅为0.05%，报6734.11点。） 美股半导体芯片股逆势拉升，成为推动市场情绪回暖的主要因素。截至发稿时，闪迪涨超7%，美光科技涨超6%。全球芯片龙头英伟达股价大幅拉升，由 跌转涨，截至发稿涨0.82%。 | < > | 英伟达 G Q | | --- | --- | | NVDA | | | 188.390 今开 182.860 最高 188.390 最低 180.580 | | | 082% 1530 快手 | 0.29% 总量 7059万股 总值 4.6万亿 | | 52周高212.190 52周低 86.600 市盈 「M 52.86 | 車を | | 盘前 182.900 -3.960 -2.12% | 09:30 美东 ▼ | | 分时 | 五日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries remained in expansion. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds are being implemented faster, and investment recovery is accelerating. - Asset views: With the Fed's actions, Sino - US summit results, and policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability. - Domestic: Policy emphasis on "science and technology self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" has strengthened the focus on economic construction. The economy continues to stabilize. - Asset Allocation: Adopt a "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy, with different asset classes having different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, but there is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap stocks. Expected to oscillate and rise. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and the option market liquidity may be lower than expected. Expected to oscillate. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, affected by policy, fundamental, and tariff factors. Expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Expected to oscillate, affected by US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. Expected to oscillate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost support. Expected to oscillate, affected by special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes. Expected to oscillate, affected by overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors. - Other products in this sector, such as coke, coking coal, etc., are also expected to oscillate, each affected by different factors [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, with different influencing factors for each metal. For example, copper is affected by trade frictions, and aluminum is affected by inventory changes [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are in a situation of weak supply - demand and are expected to oscillate. Some products, such as ethylene glycol and styrene, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and trade [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - The agricultural sector shows a differentiated trend. Some products, such as protein meal, are expected to oscillate and rise, while others, such as natural rubber and sugar, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of various mining companies, driven by a surge in gold prices, which have reached a historical high of over $4,260 per ounce for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Endeavour Silver saw its stock price rise by over 8% [1] - Silvercorp Metals experienced a stock increase of more than 7% [1] - Gold Resources and Jintian both rose by over 5% [1] - Coeur Mining and Harmony Gold increased by over 4% [1] - Newmont Mining also saw a rise of over 4% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Spot gold prices have surpassed $4,260 per ounce, marking the fourth consecutive day of setting historical highs [1] - The World Gold Council's research head, Juan Carlos Artigas, noted that despite gold reaching 45 historical highs this year, speculative positions in the futures market have not yet reached historical peaks, indicating that the market is not saturated [1] - The ongoing trend of global central banks purchasing gold suggests there may still be room for additional capital inflow into the market [1]

Market Overview - The digital currency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating dramatically, dropping to around $104,000 before rebounding over $2,000 and then falling nearly $4,000 again, settling at approximately $103,500 [1] - Ethereum also saw a sharp decline, dropping over $200 to a price of $2,440, representing a daily decrease of more than 4.5% [2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, SOL, and SUI also faced declines exceeding 4% [3] Liquidation Statistics - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 investors were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounts exceeding $460 million [3] - Long positions were particularly affected, with liquidation amounts surpassing $500 million, and the largest single liquidation occurred in Bitcoin, amounting to approximately $8 million [3] Market Influences - The recent downturn in the digital currency market is attributed to several factors, including unclear global inflation prospects, high geopolitical uncertainties causing liquidity panic, an escalation in SEC policy reviews, and profit-taking by investors who previously went long [5] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, precious metals like gold and silver also saw declines, with gold prices dropping approximately $80 from a peak of $3,450 per ounce [5] Economic Commentary - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction to 1-2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually [10][11] - Trump criticized Powell's handling of inflation and hinted at possibly reconsidering his previous stance on Powell's job security [10][11]

Group 1: Spot Gold Fundamentals - The announcement of a significant tariff adjustment agreement between China and the U.S. on May 12, 2025, led to a sharp decline in the spot gold market, with prices dropping nearly $80 to a weekly low of $3245.85 per ounce [2] - Following the agreement, COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200 mark, reaching a one-month low of $3180.70 per ounce, indicating a market reaction to reduced trade risks [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, which diminished gold's safe-haven appeal, as investors shifted their risk appetite towards equities and other risk assets [2] Group 2: Physical Gold vs. Financial Market - There is a noticeable divergence between physical gold and financial markets, with brands like Chow Tai Fook showing less price volatility compared to the financial market, reflecting stable consumer purchasing decisions [3] - In Q1 2025, global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% to 380 tons, while investment demand surged by 170%, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching 124 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly level in history [3] Group 3: Spot Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold market in Asia continued to decline, breaking the key support level of $3201.00, with current market quotes around $3185.00 per ounce [4] - Technical analysis suggests a high probability of further price declines, with a trading strategy recommending short positions if prices rebound to the resistance level of $3215.40, with stop-loss set at $3245.40 and take-profit at $3170.00 [4] Group 4: Spot Silver Technical Analysis - The spot silver market also followed expectations, breaking below the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $32.510, reaching the target of $32.110, with current quotes around $32.200 per ounce [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued likelihood of price declines, with a recommendation to short if prices rebound to the resistance level of $32.510, setting stop-loss at $32.950 and take-profit at $31.950 [6]