交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强后回落。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供应商报盘。 5月主港在09升水80~140成交，个别偏高在09升水150有成交，个别5月上主港在05升水20成交，价格商谈区间在4555~4620附 近。今日主流现货基差在09+105。中性 2、基差：现货4570，05合约基差90，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.39天，环比增加0.03天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装 ...

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 2025-04-24 | 6166 | 4370 | 4179 | 6028 | 3446 | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 2025-04-22 | 6050 | 4306 | 4180 | 5982 | 3456 | | 2025-04-21 | 6110 | 4350 | 4205 | 6010 | 3419 | | 日度变化 | 1.0% | 0.7% | -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | | 月 差 | P X（ 5 - 9） | P T A（ 5 - 9） | M E G（ 5 - 9） | PF(5-6) | PX-EB05 | | 2025-04-25 | 6 4 | 3 2 ...

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for MEG is neutral, with attention on Sino-US tariff negotiations and crude oil price fluctuations [9] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] - In terms of inventory, on Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy may lead to the exemption of subsequent ethane import tariffs. On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual progress of ethane-based plants and the adjustment of imported supplies. On the demand side, the short-term polyester load remains high and stable, but direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold. The expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the holiday situation of weaving factories around May Day and the progress of subsequent Sino-US negotiations. Overall, the current EG inventory is at the seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still relatively high, providing a certain buffer. The actual change in port inventory is limited, and the fundamental contradictions of EG are not significant. Attention should be paid to macro dynamics [3] EG Basis Structure - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] EG Production Profit and Operating Rate - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] EG Import Profit & International Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the text regarding EG import profit and international price difference Downstream Polyester Situation - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] EG Inventory Trend - On Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6]

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化工日报 | 2025-04-25 本周港口库存增加，关注乙烷关税政策动向 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4179元/吨（较前一交易日变动-71元/吨，幅度-1.67%），EG华东市场现货价 4216元/吨（较前一交易日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.45%），EG华东现货基差（基于2505合约）21元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 特朗普态度缓和后，周四市场对乙烷进口高关税导致装置停车的担忧放缓，EG价格下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-66美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-227元/吨（环比 +41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为77.5万吨（环比上涨+0.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四 发布的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为68.8万吨（环比上周-1.9万吨）。本周主港计划到港总数19.6万吨，略偏多，主 港发货节奏降低且到货相对稳健，较本周一库存总量回升。当前库存处于近五年季节性中位水平，同时隐性库存 依旧偏高，关注平衡表去库对港口库存的传导。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 整 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][12]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic spandex and adipic acid industry, with significant cost advantages at the bottom of the cycle, awaiting an industry turning point [9][10]. - In 2024, the company is expected to experience a decline in profitability due to insufficient demand and price drops in key products, despite an increase in sales volume [6][7]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the spandex and adipic acid sectors, with no new capacity expected in the adipic acid industry in 2025, which may lead to improved consumption driven by domestic technological advancements [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 26.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.220 billion yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year [6][11]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 6.559 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit to 205 million yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year [6][8]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 13.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [6][12]. Product Segment Performance - The chemical fiber segment generated revenue of 9.051 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while sales volume increased by 12.3% to 368,000 tons [7]. - The chemical new materials segment reported revenue of 5.844 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 425,000 tons, up 2.4% [7]. - The basic chemical products segment saw a revenue increase of 22.3% to 10.475 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 1.366 million tons, although the gross margin decreased by 8.8 percentage points [7].

2025年04月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱，多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多SC空PTA | 2 | | MEG：中期趋势偏弱，多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：油价暂稳，区间震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：低位震荡 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，成交偏弱 | 13 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 14 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 20 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘震荡上行，下方仍有支撑 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 33 | | 短纤：短期震荡市，中期仍有压力 | 37 | | 瓶 ...

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