1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/25 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [2][10][15]. Summaries by Directory Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on June 25, 2025, was - 184.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared with previous days [2]. - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 [2]. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented on different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on June 25, 2025, was - 32.94 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1527 [9]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: The basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on June 25, 2025, was - 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided for various chemical products [10]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - 3*methanol are presented on different dates [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis of products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of rebar on June 25, 2025, was 74.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was - 16.5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil, are presented on different dates [15]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on June 25, 2025, was - 50 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME - related Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided on June 25, 2025 [30]. London Market - **Basis Data**: LME basis data is presented, along with Shanghai - London ratio and import profit and loss data [32][33][34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis of products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn showed different values on different dates [40]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given [38][40]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios and spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and soybean meal - rapeseed meal are presented on different dates [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different values on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 25, 2025, was 37.27 [48]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [48].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低位震荡，现货市场商谈转淡，现货基差略走强。贸易商商谈为主，本周及下周货主流在09+270附近 成交，个别略低在09+265附近，价格商谈区间在5030~5065附近。7月中在09+260~265有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+269。中 性 6、预期：伊以停火，油价暴跌，PTA期货盘面跟随成本端下跌，供需结构上，PTA自身基本面虽环比转弱，但并未累库，预计短 期内PTA现货价格仍跟随成本端偏弱震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注聚酯负荷波动。 2、基差：现货5048，09合约基差258，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比增加0.12天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向 ...

周三，玻璃、纯碱主力合约呈震荡小幅上涨格局，分别收涨0.3%至1017元/吨，收涨0.43%至1166元/ 吨。当天，内盘原油价格继续大幅下跌，油化工板块跌幅有所收窄，化工品价格波动逐渐回归到基本供 需关系。 纯碱供应处于较高水平，碱厂库存面临去化难题 近期，纯碱的供应量一直处于较高的水平，并且后续产能恢复以及新产能投产所带来的压力依然存在。 最新数据显示，纯碱开工率达到了86.12%，整体开工情况保持稳定。上周纯碱的产量为75.47万吨，相 较于前一周增加了1.46万吨，涨幅为1.97%。在利润方面，上周合成碱的利润呈现出分化态势，其中联 碱法的利润为99.50元/吨，较前一周下跌了40元/吨；而氨碱法的利润为25.20元/吨，较前一周增加了 4.50元/吨。 瑞达期货：纯碱预计供给依旧宽松，价格将继续承压 供应端来看，国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上涨，但整体上涨速度趋缓，市场供应依旧宽松，国内纯 碱利润下滑，但目前利润依旧为正，由此反馈出纯碱产量增速将进一步放缓，后续冷修有望增加，需求 端玻璃产线无太大变化，整体产量小幅增加，维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。光伏玻璃整体出现需求 下滑迹象，预计继续下滑，对于 ...

美国总统特朗普24日称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效，警告各方不要违反协议。市场对地缘风险预期快速降温，国内外油价大幅回落，截至国内商品市 场收盘，SC原油主力合约收跌停，跌幅9.00%；相关化工品也全线回落，其中高硫燃油、液化气主力合约分别以9.02%、5.98%的跌幅收跌停；LU主力合约 跌超7%。中辉期货分析指出，在特朗普单方面宣布伊以正式停火，市场情绪快速回落，原油带领油化工大面积回落。不过也应看到，当前以色列、伊朗之 间交火仍在持续，特朗普自身外交政策也过于反复。在地缘因素变数较大的情况下，原油短期隐含波动率快速提升，短线关注500大关得失。 随着原油价格的回落，原油系相关产品也都失去支撑，其中高硫燃油领跌商品市场。不过就其自身基本面来看，光大期货表示，供应方面，伊朗和俄罗斯高 硫供应下滑，全球三大港口以及美国的燃油库存处在相对低位，整体供应压力不大。需求方面，无论是船用还是夏季发电，当前燃油消费均有一定支撑。综 合来看，燃油自身基本面表现偏强，但是近期行情走势主要还是围绕着原油价格波动，后期继续关注伊以停火协议能否顺利落地，短期地缘不确定性仍然存 在。 中东局势缓和，市场避险情绪迅速回落，商品市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2400 in the short term. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline due to planned maintenance and potential load - reduction expectations. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, imports are expected to return, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2379 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 896,735 lots, down 96,724 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,080 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2020 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price spread is 600 yuan/ton, down 117.5 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 241 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 306 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 285 euros/ton, up 12 euros. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 40 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 3.68 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; South China port inventory is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. Methanol import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367,400 tons, down 11,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 863 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [3] Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons (3.10% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons (9.37% MoM). As of June 18, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons. The overall production increased slightly. The inventory in the Northwest decreased, while some enterprises' inventory increased slightly. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 88.97%, down 0.54% MoM [3] View Summary - Due to the short - term low arrival at ports, the port inventory decreased. The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. Attention should be paid to the change in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes [3] Tip for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -466 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 12185 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 373162 | | | 611529 7339 | 287981 -353 | | | | | 手) | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 22328 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 268569 | | | -13982 | 10036 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 2149 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 18 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 387144 8244 | | | 5800 935 | 1000 -4 ...