Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on October 10, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Red dates rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal rose over 1%. Container shipping to Europe and live pigs dropped over 3%, and eggs and polysilicon fell over 2%. Many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:21 on October 10, polysilicon 2511, cotton yarn 2601, and rapeseed meal 2601 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2512, Shanghai silver 2512, and rebar 2601 had large - scale capital outflows [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened high, declined during the day, and closed flat. Due to mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the failure of Panama to resume production, supply concerns increased. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies support downstream demand. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are expected to rise mainly in a volatile manner [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the holiday, lithium carbonate opened and closed lower. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in the peak season. After the Tibetan Mining obtained the mining right, the supply - demand remains loose. The market is in the stage of shock consolidation [10][11]. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak season is over, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has recovered, and the expected production in October is high. The downstream demand is affected by funds and rainfall. With the weakening of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13][14]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate has increased slightly, but the peak - season demand is less than expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, PP is expected to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but the performance is not as expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, plastic is expected to decline in a volatile manner [17]. PVC - The PVC operating rate has increased, but the downstream demand is low. The export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. With the cost weakening, PVC is expected to decline under pressure [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. The supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand remains stable. The market will fluctuate within a narrow range [20]. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower. The supply is high, and the demand is affected by weather and holidays. The futures price has fallen below the key level, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, supply changes are expected to be the dominant factor for prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, which is lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. - For PX & PTA, the PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PTA processing margins have dropped, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations. [4] - For MEG, after the holiday, the operating rate and port inventory have increased, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - For BZ & EB, the pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply changes are expected to dominate prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. PX & PTA - PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PXN is expected to be weak. PTA device changes are frequent, processing margins have dropped to around 165 yuan/ton, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [4]. - Domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization is 88.23%, up 0.34% from last week. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization is 76.97% (+0.19%). PX - naphtha spread remains around $220 per ton. Some PX devices have restarted or are under maintenance. PXN is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [8]. - PTA spot price is 4,500 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from last week. The futures basis of the main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week. Weekly average capacity utilization is 77.84%, up 0.35% from last week. After new device commissioning in October, supply pressure remains, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [14]. MEG - After the holiday, the MEG operating rate has recovered, and East China port inventory has significantly increased. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,214 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization is 70.01%, up 3.27% from last week. The port inventory has increased to 443,100 tons, up 42,800 tons from last week. The futures price has declined, and the market is weak [19]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined to 78.35% but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate is 79.29%, up 0.55% from last week; the styrene operating rate is 71.24%, down 2.37% from last week. The downstream S - product comprehensive operating rate is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The short - term fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [32]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.8%, up 0.89% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.06%, up 0.94% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 14.29 days, down 1.71 days from last week. Factory inventories have increased, and the industry is under pressure [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The spot price of EG in the East China market decreased by -1.43% to 4214 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main EG contract decreased by -1.16% to 4158 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -63 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change; the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons. From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. During the National Day holiday, there were many arrivals of foreign ships, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port to replenish supplies. On the demand side, the demand was slightly boosted by pre-holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The overall balance sheet of EG has a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the inventory may bottom out and rebound [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, cautiously short and hedge at high prices. For inter - period trading, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4214 yuan/ton (a change of -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.43%), and the closing price of the main EG contract was 4158 yuan/ton (a change of -49 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.16%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -63 US dollars/ton (a week-on-week increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences were provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Before the festival, the demand was slightly boosted by stocking, and the sales of filament improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load was limited. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs attention [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons). From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of pure benzene decreased again, but the inventory pressure of styrene still exists. For pure benzene, although the port inventory decreased after the holiday and downstream提货 was still active, there are doubts about the long - term procurement sustainability of some downstream products. For styrene, the port inventory continued to accumulate slightly after the holiday, with high inventory pressure, and the downstream提货 performance was average. The supply pressure is expected to increase both domestically and from overseas imports [1][2]. - It is recommended to short - sell BZ and EB on rallies for hedging, do reverse hedging on the spread of EB2511 - EB2512 on rallies, and narrow the spread of EB2512 - BZ2503 on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (- 73), and the spread between East China's pure benzene spot and M2 is 35 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is - 28 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (+ 4 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+ 7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 69.6 dollars/ton (- 5.0 dollars/ton). Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 486 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 9.10 tons (- 1.50 tons). Styrene: East China port inventory is 201,900 tons (+ 4,400 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 116,400 tons (+ 9,600 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene's downstream products such as aniline and adipic acid increased, and the operating rate of styrene is 73.6% (+ 2.4%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 228 yuan/ton (- 90 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 72 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 34 yuan/ton (- 175 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 40.74% (- 2.37%), PS operating rate is 54.60% (- 1.70%), ABS operating rate is 72.50% (+ 1.50%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1900 yuan/ton (+ 110), phenol - acetone production profit is - 332 yuan/ton (+ 51), aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+ 140), adipic acid production profit is - 1325 yuan/ton (- 19). Caprolactam operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12%), adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00%) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is weak, with most products expected to experience weak fluctuations. Specific ratings for each product include: oil (weakly fluctuating), asphalt (weakly fluctuating), high - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), low - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), PX (fluctuating), PTA (fluctuating), pure benzene (weakly fluctuating), styrene (weakly fluctuating), MEG (weakly fluctuating), short - fiber (fluctuating), polyester bottle - chip (fluctuating), methanol (weakly fluctuating in the short - term), urea (weakly fluctuating), LLDPE (weakly fluctuating), PP (weakly fluctuating), PL (weakly fluctuating), PVC (fluctuating), and caustic soda (fluctuating) [10][11][14][17][18][19][22][24][28][29][33][34][35][37][38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price is in a stable and fluctuating state, and the Brent oil price remains within the 65 - 70 range. The SC oil price has fallen to the lower edge of the range due to high domestic crude oil inventories. The market is focused on the Israel - Hamas agreement, but there are doubts about its final implementation. The coking coal price rebounded on the first trading day after the holiday, and there is a possibility of price stabilization for coal [1]. - On the evening of October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on "regulating price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market order," which may slightly boost the sentiment of the domestic sluggish commodity market. For chemical products, there has been no effective production reduction. The supply side has not effectively responded to losses, and the chemical market pattern remains weak [2]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be weakly fluctuating, with oil as the anchor. If geopolitical disturbances gradually weaken, the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - **Oil**: The US Treasury's sanctions on entities related to Iranian oil have not significantly affected oil prices. Global supply is in an increasing phase dominated by high - growth OPEC+ production, with a surplus pressure. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to return to a downward channel [10]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ production increase, a reduction in Saudi's export premium to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in the geopolitical premium, putting pressure on asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [11]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The sudden agreement in the Israel - Hamas conflict has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. Although there is an improvement in demand expectations, the impact of geopolitical upgrades on prices is expected to be short - term [11]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the weak trend of oil, facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [13]. - **PX**: Although there are some device outages, the overall supply is still relatively abundant. With the poor performance of polyester and textile clothing demand, PX profits are expected to be under pressure [14]. - **PTA**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply - demand situation in October is relatively stable. However, the market has a pessimistic expectation of future supply - demand loosening. If there is no large - scale production reduction, processing fees will remain under pressure [16]. - **Pure benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday inventory build - up has strengthened the market structure, but the supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the year, with significant inventory accumulation pressure in October [17]. - **Styrene**: Although the supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance, the high inventory in the upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce, and the cost - side pure benzene inventory is also difficult to clear, dragging down the styrene price [18]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is gradually being realized, and the inventory accumulation inflection point is approaching. Although the inventory accumulation amplitude is limited, domestic production is expected to increase, and polyester demand may weaken [22]. - **Short - fiber**: The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber price follows slightly. Although the terminal demand has marginally improved, the procurement is still cautious, and the overall driving force is limited [23]. - **Polyester bottle - chip**: The price follows the upstream cost fluctuations. Under the joint production reduction of bottle - chip factories, the processing fees are relatively stable. The expansion space of processing fees is limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans [26]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the weakening of olefins and inventory accumulation, the futures price has declined. However, considering the potential disturbances from Iran, there may be some room for rebound after a continuous decline [28]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there is a supply - demand mismatch, agricultural demand is weakening, and there is no short - term positive news. The market is expected to be weakly fluctuating [29]. - **LLDPE**: It follows the weak trend of the energy and chemical market. The supply - demand situation is not optimistic, and the profit support is limited. The price is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Affected by the decline of PG, the price has fallen. The supply - side pressure remains, and the transmission of raw material price decline is obvious [35]. - **PL**: Affected by the decline of PG, the futures price has fallen, but the spot price has some support, and it is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [35]. - **PVC**: There are still fundamental pressures, and the cost change is expected to be small. It is expected to be cautiously weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [37]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory build - up and upstream start - up changes [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.59 with a change of 0.02, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 16 [40]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product are different. For example, the basis of asphalt is 115 with a change of 39, and the warehouse receipt is 44430 [41]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spread data also vary. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 125 with a change of 7, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 426 with a change of 39 [43]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although there are sub - sections for various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data summaries are provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity market have different performance. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.66% to 2541.25, the industrial products index increased by 0.87% to 2238.71, and the energy index decreased by 1.98% on October 9th, 2025 [287][289].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses India's strategic response to U.S. tariffs and pressure regarding its oil imports from Russia, highlighting India's reliance on Russian oil and its broader geopolitical maneuvering in the face of American economic policies [3][5][11]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and India's Response - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods due to stalled trade agreements and an additional 25% tariff citing India's purchase of Russian oil, leading to some Indian products facing tax rates as high as 50% [3][5]. - In retaliation, India announced tariffs of up to 150% on 28 categories of U.S. imports, including agricultural and chemical products, and initiated a $2.7 billion export subsidy plan [11][15]. - India's external trade with the U.S. is relatively low, constituting only 4.2% of its GDP, which provides it with leverage to resist U.S. pressure [15]. Group 2: Energy Security and Economic Implications - India imports a significant amount of oil from Russia, with the share rising from 2% before the Ukraine conflict to 34% by September 2025, equating to a daily supply of 1.6 million barrels [7][9]. - The price advantage of Russian oil, which is $89 cheaper per ton compared to Middle Eastern oil, has saved India approximately $5 billion in foreign exchange in the 2022 fiscal year [9]. - India's dependence on oil imports is high at 85%, making the energy security chain critical, and switching suppliers could lead to increased domestic inflation and significant costs [9][11]. Group 3: Geopolitical Maneuvering - India has extended its long-term contracts with Russia for oil until 2035, benefiting from discounts and the ability to settle transactions in local currency to avoid sanctions [13]. - The country has also positioned itself as a "middleman" by refining Russian oil and selling it to Western markets, becoming the second-largest exporter of refined oil products in 2023, generating around $16 billion in profits [13]. - India's stance has garnered support from other developing nations, as seen in a joint statement with Brazil and South Africa opposing unilateral sanctions at the G20 foreign ministers' meeting [15].

Group 1: Report Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol is likely to remain downward. Cost - side support from rebounding crude oil and coal prices is marginal, while supply pressure persists due to the recovery of oil - and coal - based plant operating rates. Demand lacks seasonal improvement, leading to a rapid increase in port inventories. The strengthening basis reflects the willingness of spot merchants to support prices, but the upside for futures is limited by high inventories. In the medium term, the focus should be on cost fluctuations and port de - stocking pace. Without substantial demand improvement, prices may continue to trade in the bottom range [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, indicating increased market wait - and - see sentiment. The East China spot price also fell by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 76 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, showing stronger short - term support in the spot market than in the futures market. The 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken to - 75 yuan/ton, reflecting pressure on the far - month contract expectations, while the 5 - 9 spread rebounded significantly by 47 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential marginal alleviation of medium - term supply - demand contradictions [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The main contract's open interest decreased by 6,856 lots to 314,030 lots, but trading volume increased by 18% to 136,773 lots, indicating that some funds left the market while market activity increased and short - term long - short competition intensified [2]. - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 71.31%, mainly due to a 2.5 - percentage - point increase in the oil - based route operating rate to 76.94%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 62.95%. Oil - based profits were still deeply in the red but did not deteriorate marginally, and coal - based profits were stable at - 574 yuan/ton, with no obvious relief in cost - side pressure [2]. - **需求端**: The downstream polyester plant load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal orders did not show seasonal improvement, and polyester sales were dull, resulting in raw material purchases mainly for rigid demand, lacking upward drivers on the demand side [3]. - **库存端**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons week - on - week to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, reaching a new high for the year. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, port pick - up volume remained low, and inventory pressure accumulated rapidly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货相关数据**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. Trading volume increased by 18.01% to 136,773 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.14% to 314,030 lots [5]. - **现货及价差数据**: The East China market spot price of MEG dropped by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.11% to 63 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19.05% to - 75 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.75% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.48% to 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **利润数据**: The coal - based profit decreased by 5.23% to - 604 yuan/ton, while data for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits were not provided [5]. - **开工负荷数据**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 2.19% to 71.3%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 3.43% to 76.9% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 63.0%. The polyester plant load, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained stable [5]. - **库存与到港量数据**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum's chemical subsidiary OxyChem for $9.7 billion in cash, marking the first major deal orchestrated by Greg Abel, Buffett's designated successor [1][8] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition is a cash transaction aimed at helping Occidental reduce its significant debt load, which is part of a broader plan to cut $24 billion in debt [1][4] - Occidental plans to use $6.5 billion of the proceeds from the sale to pay down debt, with a goal of reducing its debt to below $15 billion [1][4] - Following the announcement, Occidental's stock price fell by 7.3%, reflecting market concerns about the deal's implications [1] Group 2: Implications for Occidental Petroleum - The sale of OxyChem is seen as a necessary step for Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub to stabilize the company's financial situation, which has been strained by previous acquisitions [4][5] - Occidental's heavy debt burden primarily stems from the $55 billion acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019 and a $12 billion acquisition of CrownRock in 2023 [4] - Analysts believe this transaction will help Occidental meet its debt reduction targets and potentially allow for increased shareholder returns, such as stock buybacks [5] Group 3: Strategic Benefits for Berkshire Hathaway - For Berkshire, this acquisition serves a dual purpose: it aids in stabilizing its investment in Occidental, where it holds a 29.6% stake, while also expanding its portfolio by controlling one of the largest independent chemical producers globally [3][6] - The deal is characterized as a "win-win" for Berkshire, as it allows the company to acquire a quality asset at a favorable price while ensuring that the proceeds are used to strengthen its investment in Occidental [9] - The transaction is the largest for Berkshire since its $11.6 billion acquisition of Alleghany in 2022, showcasing Abel's capital allocation strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Near the holiday, EG fluctuates. The spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous trading day, and the basis is 67 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton. The inventory data from different sources shows different trends. The overall supply and demand logic is that the domestic EG load is running at a high level, there are still many overseas supply losses, and there will be more arrivals during the National Day holiday. The demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The near - term EG balance sheet has little contradiction, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but there is great pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 4224 yuan/ton (+ 11 yuan/ton, + 0.26% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton, - 0.12% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) is 67 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data in the provided content, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [17] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, and the production and sales of filaments have improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China is 40.9 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it is 40.0 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight accumulation. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed Chair Powell warned that the US stock market was over - valued, causing global capital markets to fluctuate at high levels. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately low, with supply under pressure and demand in a seasonal peak. When the seasonal off - peak season arrives in the fourth quarter, the market price may continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - The prices of styrene in the spot and futures markets have been continuously decreasing, with the basis weakening and the BZN spread declining. The profit of non - integrated EB plants has also decreased [11]. - The cost of styrene is affected by the price and supply of pure benzene. Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.26%, and its production was fluctuating at a high level. The supply of styrene is affected by capacity utilization and production plans, with the largest production pressure expected in the fourth quarter [11]. - The demand for styrene has shown a slight improvement with the arrival of the seasonal peak. The weighted operating rate of the downstream three S products has increased, and the operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS have all risen [11]. - The inventory of styrene has different trends. The in - plant inventory has decreased slightly, while the inventory at Jiangsu ports has increased significantly. However, the high - level inventory at ports is gradually being reduced [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: Fed Chair Powell warned of high US stock valuations, leading to high - level fluctuations in global capital markets [11]. - Valuation: Styrene's weekly decline was in the order of spot > cost > futures. The basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants declined [11]. - Cost: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China dropped by 1.26%, and its production was fluctuating at a high level [11]. - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of EB was 73.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13% but a year - on - year increase of 4.26%. According to the production plan, the largest production pressure will be in the fourth quarter [11]. - Import and Export: In July, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.13% but a year - on - year increase of 8.38%. The import volume of EB in July was 269,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29% [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of the downstream three S products was 45.44%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS all increased [11]. - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB was 215,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31% but a year - on - year increase of 36.08%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 186,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 323.86%. The high - level port inventory is being reduced [11]. - Forecast: The reference range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is 5,800 - 6,100 yuan/ton, and for styrene (EB2511) is 6,800 - 7,100 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The prices of styrene in the spot and futures markets have been continuously decreasing, and multiple charts show the trends of styrene's spot price, futures price, basis, trading volume, and other indicators over the years [14][18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - The profit of styrene has slightly rebounded. Charts show the profit trends of different production processes such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM [42]. - There are various inventory trends. Charts show the inventory trends of styrene in East China ports, factories, and other aspects over the years [36]. 3.4 Cost Side - The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly. The profit chart of the naphtha - crude oil - pure benzene - styrene - PS industrial chain shows the profit trends of each link [54][56]. - Pure benzene will continue to see inventory reduction in 2025, especially with a large supply gap in the third quarter. There are detailed production and investment plans for pure benzene and its downstream products, as well as comparisons of production and demand in different quarters [58][59]. - The price difference between China and South Korea for pure benzene has decreased. Multiple charts show the price differences, import profits, production rates, and other indicators of pure benzene [65]. - The downstream demand and production of pure benzene have shown a downward trend in an oscillatory manner. Charts show the production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as phenol, aniline, and caprolactam [86]. - The in - plant inventory of caprolactam has been fluctuating at a high level. Charts show the inventory trends of caprolactam and other downstream products [93]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, styrene will face a shortage starting from the third quarter, but the gap may gradually narrow. There are detailed production and investment plans for styrene and its downstream products, as well as comparisons of production and demand in different quarters [103][106]. - There are many planned maintenance activities in September, and the production of styrene has declined from the same - period high. Charts show the daily production, export volume, operating rate, and other indicators of styrene [115]. 3.6 Demand Side - The production capacity of the downstream 3S products of styrene has been forecasted. Charts show the production capacity, output, and growth rates of PS, EPS, and ABS [126][127]. - The operating rates of EPS and PS have seasonally improved. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS and PS [131][135]. - The operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level. Charts show the profit and operating rate of ABS [139][140]. - The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate. Charts show the sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of washing machines [160][161]. - The production of air - conditioners also has relevant data and trends. Charts show the sales volume, production plan, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of air - conditioners [163][165].