Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data for ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Ferrosilicon**: - Spot prices vary by region and type. For example, Ningxia 72 natural block ferrosilicon is 5130 yuan, with a weekly change of - 20 yuan; Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon export price is 1020 US dollars, with a weekly change of - 10 US dollars [2]. - Futures prices also show differences among different contracts. The main contract of ferrosilicon is 5456 yuan, down 16 yuan daily and 206 yuan weekly [2]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions have different changes. Inner Mongolia 6517 ferromanganese has an ex - factory price of 5520 yuan, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan [2]. - Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuate. The main contract of ferromanganese is 5630 yuan, up 24 yuan daily and down 162 yuan weekly [2]. Supply - **Ferrosilicon**: - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China are presented, including monthly output, weekly output, and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The weekly production volume of ferromanganese in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [6]. Demand - **Ferrosilicon**: - Related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium. For example, the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China and the production of stainless - steel crude steel are shown [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The demand data of ferromanganese in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) are given, and it is also related to the production of crude steel [4][7]. Inventory - **Ferrosilicon**: - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including total inventory and inventory in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, are provided. Also, data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions are presented [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are shown [7]. Cost and Profit - **Ferrosilicon**: - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi. Profit - related data include the profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia (converted to the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75% ferrosilicon [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Profit data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are provided, as well as the profit of Guangxi ferromanganese converted to the main contract [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current silicon - manganese market presents a stalemate and game pattern of "strong cost - end and weak demand - end". Affected by the strong cost and downstream price - pressing, the adjustment of the spot market is limited. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The report shows the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises [6][7]. - **Annual Output**: It presents the annual output of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China as a whole [8][9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: The weekly and monthly output of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [10][11]. - **Regional Output**: It includes the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering Purchase Price**: The monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, and other steel enterprises are shown [15][16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average output of hot metal and the weekly profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are presented [17][18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export The monthly import and export quantities of silicon - manganese in China are provided [19][20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are shown [21][22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China is presented [23][24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China are shown [25][26]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from Australia, Gabon, and Brazil in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [27][28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily summary prices of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: The daily costs of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are shown [30][31]. Manganese Silicon Profit The daily profits of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - **Logic**: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - **View**: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - **View**: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - **View**: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability**: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - **Coke Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - **Import/Production**: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - **Steel Mill Purchase Price**: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On November 24, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. For ferrosilicon, with supply and demand both decreasing and cost support, and its low valuation, short - selling is not advisable. For silicomanganese, in the game between weak supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trading strategies are: in the single - side market, expect bottom - range oscillation; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5456, down 16 (daily) and 206 (weekly), with a trading volume of 360,902 (up 25,320 daily) and an open interest of 205,123 (up 2936 daily). The SM main contract closed at 5630, up 24 (daily) and down 162 (weekly), with a trading volume of 202,413 (up 64,380 daily) and an open interest of 397,984 (down 41,457 daily) [2] - **Spot**: Ferrosilicon spot prices showed mixed trends on the 24th, with Inner Mongolia's spot price down 50 yuan/ton and Jiangsu's up 120 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese spot prices also showed mixed trends, with Ningxia's spot price up 20 yuan/ton and Guangxi's down 20 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin were stable with a slight increase [2][5] - **Basis/Spread**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese basis and spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 174, down 40 (daily) and 44 (weekly) [2] - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin showed a slight increase, and the prices of semi - coke small materials in various regions remained stable [2] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies** - Single - side: Due to the weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, expect bottom - range oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] - **Important Information** - On the 24th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed different prices for different grades [7] - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5630, rising 0.50%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, the output has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 330,000 tons, and the iron - water demand has a seasonal decline overall. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 24, the silicon - iron 2603 contract was reported at 5456, rising 0.04%. The weakening of coal has led to a correction in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand replenishment, prices have declined, and the inventory in this period has decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,630.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,456.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume: 718,487.00 lots, down 32,735.00 lots; SF futures contract holding volume: 436,286.00 lots, down 12,267.00 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume: - 7,574.00 lots, down 181.00 lots; Silicon - iron top 20 net holding volume: - 10,992.00 lots, up 2,577.00 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 20,797.00 pieces, up 460.00 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 9,039.00 pieces, up 763.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 0.00 yuan/ton, down 5,500.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,130.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,220.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 236.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 180.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port: 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest China): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.263 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.13%, down 0.46%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory of national steel mills: 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; Silicon - iron inventory of national steel mills: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types: 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00 tons; Silicon - iron demand of five major steel types: 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 82.17%, down 0.62%; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 71.997 million tons, down 1.4931 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 with policy support. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase exceeding 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, aiming to focus on four aspects: planning, funds, operation, and governance [2]. 3.7 Market Pricing - HeSteel Group's final price for silicon - manganese in November was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - HeSteel's tender price for 75B silicon - iron in November was 5,680 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous round [2]. 3.8 Profit Situation - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 260 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 240 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 470 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on November 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5130, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -20; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5200, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Qinghai 72 is 5170, with a daily and weekly change of -30; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 is 5100, with a daily and weekly change of -30; the price of Shaanxi 75 is 5700, with no change. The export prices of Tianjin 72 and 75 are 1030 and 1080 respectively, with weekly changes of -15 and -20 [2]. - For silicon manganese on November 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese at the production area ex - factory price is 5520, with a weekly change of -80; Ningxia 6517 is 5460, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -90; Guangxi 6517 is 5550, with a weekly change of -50; Guizhou 6517 and Yunnan 6517 are 5500, with a weekly change of -80 [2]. Supply - The report presents the production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly production and weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), as well as the production capacity utilization rate of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is also provided, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of HeSteel Group [7]. Demand - The report shows the demand data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 (Steel Union caliber), and also includes data such as the estimated production volume of crude steel in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy by HeSteel Group, etc. [5][8]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the report provides the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025, as well as data such as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions [6]. - For silicon manganese, it provides the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, as well as data such as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the electricity price data of different regions from 2021 - 2025, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost and profit data of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy [6]. - For silicon manganese, it presents the profit data of different regions from 2021 - 2025, including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract and the profit of Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the market [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]

资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：原料端情绪降温，合金补跌偏弱 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 10.83 | -0.73% | -10.57% | 19.69 | -1.33% | 3.06% | | | 进口数量（9月） | 1.08 | 4.86% | -15.48% | 0.17 | -3.56% | -49.82% | | 需求 | 出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has been weak recently. Although the downward pressure on prices persists and market risks remain, there is still hope for a positive impact on market sentiment from a series of macro - events in December. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound rather than short - selling. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [15][98] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 4.03%. Profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were - 546, - 682, and - 854 yuan/ton respectively, all in the red. Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were 6066, 6142, and 6404 yuan/ton respectively. Weekly manganese silicon output was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year.螺纹钢周产量207.96万吨，环比增加7.96万吨，累计同比下降约2.44%；日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比下降0.6万吨，累计同比增加约3.44%。显性库存为46.96万吨，环比增加1.09万吨，处于同期高位 [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level, production profits continue to be in the red, production is declining, demand is mixed (low - level steel production but high - level iron water production), inventory is at a high level, and the tender volume from HeSteel Group has decreased while the tender price is stable. The manganese silicon futures price showed a weak trend last week, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price [15] 3.1.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 4.03%, at a relatively high historical level [20] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 546 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 682 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, - 854 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores and off - grade metallurgical coke were stable. The estimated immediate production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6066 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 6142 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, 6404 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [27][31] - **Manganese Ore Import and Inventory**: In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. As of November 14, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory was 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons week - on - week. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore and high - grade manganese ore also decreased [34][37] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was down 1.23 tons year - on - year or 0.15%. HeSteel Group's tender volume in November 2025 was 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month but up 3700 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [45][56] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.14 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 2.44%. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 1.3 pct week - on - week [59][62][63] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 46.96 tons, up 1.09 tons week - on - week, at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 36.3 tons, up 1.05 tons week - on - week. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [70][73][76] 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded at the beginning of the week and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 138 yuan/ton or 2.4%. On the daily chart, it broke below the platform since September and was close to the support level of 5600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at this level; otherwise, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [82] Silicon Iron Report 3.2.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was - 571, - 577, and - 725 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year [97] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, production profits continue to be in the red, production has decreased slightly, demand is mixed (high - level hot metal production but weak magnesium metal demand), inventory is at a relatively high level, and the tender volume and price from HeSteel Group have decreased. The silicon iron futures price showed a weak trend last week, remaining in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [98] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level [103] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 571 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 577 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, - 725 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [108] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials were stable. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5771 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 5707 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, 5895 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [111][114] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was up 5.52 tons year - on - year or 1.24%. HeSteel Group's tender volume of 75B silicon iron alloy in November 2025 was 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month but up 1216 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [119][125] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. As of November 21, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated immediate export profit of 75B silicon iron was at a relatively low level [128][131][134] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month, and the inventory continued to increase slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142][145] 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the silicon iron futures price rose sharply at the beginning of the week but failed to break the downward trend and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or 1.02%. On the daily chart, it remained in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the recent range has narrowed to 5650 yuan/ton). The price briefly broke below 5400 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The current price trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton [151]