（来源：经济参考报） 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许多专家和投资银行认为，当前市场正在累积库存，这一趋势将持续到 2026年年初。美国能源信息署和华尔街银行也看空未来一年的石油市场，预测2026年平均油价将低于60 美元/桶。 高盛等机构的分析师表示，尽管市场对原油供应过 ...

12月22日，云南铜业盘中上涨2.08%，截至13:32，报18.14元/股，成交7.95亿元，换手率2.20%，总市值 363.46亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入3.48万元，特大单买入4980.93万元，占比6.27%，卖出6894.47万元，占 比8.67%；大单买入2.13亿元，占比26.76%，卖出1.94亿元，占比24.35%。 云南铜业今年以来股价涨51.80%，近5个交易日涨4.49%，近20日涨12.11%，近60日涨16.43%。 今年以来云南铜业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月10日。 资料显示，云南铜业股份有限公司位于云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路1号中铜大厦，成立日期1998年5月15 日，上市日期1998年6月2日，公司主营业务涉及铜的勘探、采选、冶炼,贵金属和稀散金属的提取与加 工,硫化工以及贸易等领域。主营业务收入构成为：阴极铜74.00%，其他产品12.42%，贵金属12.24%， 硫酸1.33%。 云南铜业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：黄金股、有色铜、稀缺资源、 融资融券、中盘等。 截至12月10日，云南铜业股东户数19.89万，较 ...

分红方面，精艺股份A股上市后累计派现1.39亿元。近三年，累计派现2155.30万元。 今年以来精艺股份已经9次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月10日，当日龙虎榜净买入-7605.28 万元；买入总计8810.23万元 ，占总成交额比7.47%；卖出总计1.64亿元 ，占总成交额比13.93%。 资料显示，广东精艺金属股份有限公司位于广东省佛山市顺德区北滘镇西海工业区，成立日期1999年7 月28日，上市日期2009年9月29日，公司主营业务涉及金属加工设备、精密铜管和铜管深加工产品的生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：铜管加工产品78.76%，铜杆加工产品19.80%，其他(补充)1.24%，新 能源产品0.14%，铜线加工产品0.06%。 精艺股份所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：有色铜、家用电器、增持回 购、太阳能、虚拟电厂等。 截至9月30日，精艺股份股东户数3.22万，较上期增加121.61%；人均流通股7766股，较上期减少 54.88%。2025年1月-9月，精艺股份实现营业收入34.81亿元，同比增长32.77%；归母净利润1409.16万 元，同比减少52.43% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.88% this week, with expectations of a 20-25% reduction in monthly output due to stricter environmental inspections in December [5] - LME copper price increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton, while domestic copper price decreased by 0.96% to ¥93,200 per ton [2] - LME aluminum price rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton, and domestic aluminum price increased slightly by 0.07% to ¥22,200 per ton [3] - COMEX gold price increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, with expectations of reduced imports and stable domestic supply [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with an operating rate of 79.85%, but inventory pressures are evident as production continues to accumulate [3] - The supply of antimony is expected to decline due to reduced overseas production, while demand remains stable, indicating a potential upward trend in global antimony prices [5] - Lithium carbonate price increased by 3.66% to ¥96,700 per ton, while hydroxide lithium price decreased by 0.25% to ¥87,000 per ton [6] Group 3: Export and Future Outlook - China's magnetic material exports in October increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 5% month-on-month, with a more optimistic outlook for future demand due to expected easing in export restrictions [5] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum processing sector remains weak, with a decrease in operating rates among major processing enterprises [3] - The market for tin is expected to remain strong due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions in key overseas mining regions [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector Performance**: The metals sector has shown strong performance recently, both in commodities and stocks, supported by lower-than-expected inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2][21]. - **Liquidity Expectations**: Enhanced liquidity expectations due to central bank gold purchases and rising ETF holdings are supporting gold prices, with a favorable outlook for precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium [1][4]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Surge**: Silver prices have surpassed $66 due to inventory disruptions, positively impacting gold, platinum, and palladium prices [3][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates and Japan's recent rate hike have contributed to price increases in tungsten, which is crucial for military and aerospace applications [3][13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Tin Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to macroeconomic factors and seasonal influences, with a tightening supply situation anticipated in the long term. Tin prices are also projected to rise despite current pressures from high prices and increased inventories [12][16]. - **Steel Industry Positioning**: Leading companies in the steel sector are well-positioned for a potential upward trend, with high potential for stock investments as the industry enters a strategic layout phase [6][20]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: Lithium prices are influenced by supply disruptions, particularly from key mines in Jiangxi. If production resumes quickly, prices may decline; otherwise, they could remain elevated due to inventory pressures [5][11]. - **Nickel and Cobalt Trends**: Nickel prices are under pressure from anticipated policy changes in Indonesia, while cobalt prices remain strong due to robust downstream demand and supply disruptions [8][9]. Rare Earths - **Price Trends**: The rare earth market is experiencing a decline in prices, particularly in medium and heavy rare earths, due to seasonal demand drops. However, long-term demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles is expected to support price increases [16][18]. - **Supply Constraints**: Domestic quotas for rare earth mining and separation are expected to grow at a slower pace, indicating tighter supply in the future [17]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and leading steel companies like Baosteel and CITIC Special Steel, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [12][22]. - **Focus on Strategic Resources**: Emphasis on investing in companies involved in tungsten and rare earths due to their strategic importance and expected demand growth in high-tech applications [13][18]. Conclusion - **Positive Outlook for Metals Sector**: The overall outlook for the metals sector remains optimistic, driven by improving liquidity, demand recovery, and strategic investments in industrial metals, precious metals, and energy metals [21].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4337.60 with a change of 4.25 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 65.79 with a change of - 0.51 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1924.00 with a change of 18.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00 with a change of 68.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 56.52 with a change of 0.37 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 11809.50 with a change of 95.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.71 with a change of 0.27 [1] - Euro - US Dollar's latest value is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - British Pound - US Dollar's latest value is 1.34 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen's latest value is 157.73 with a change of 2.17 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.92 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14112.48 with a change of 17.12 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 899.64 with a change of - 12.52 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.54 with a change of 0.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16066.24 with a change of 47.95 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Gold's is 1, with no change [2]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业净多头持仓处于 1990 年以来 87%分位数 ——铜行业周报（20251215-20251219） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 93180 元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价 11882 美元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国 11 月失业率达 4.6%，2026 年 1 月降息概率环比 回升。（2）供需：据 SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长单 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨（本周 TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利 润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调 排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 202 ...

有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 有色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | ♡ 위히 | \\ | | --- | --- | | | ウ咲酸缶 | | ப | 片 72 . | | | //\ www.unwu | 有色周报 铜 一、行情回顾与操作建议 本周沪铜主力运行区间在（90840、94500），总持仓为 63.19 万手，较上周 下降 2.3%，盘面价差结构近月价差为-180。现货市场，临近年末持货商抛售叠加， 国内铜现货升水重心下移，周五转为贴水 160。本周铜价高位震荡运行，宏观面 周五日央行如期加息 25BP，将基本利率上调至 0.75%，在此之前内外股 ...