1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

更多分析师加入看多更多贵金属行列。 美联储降息预期、避险需求叠加投资热情，推动金价在今日（23日）亚太交易时段再创3749.27美元/盎司的历史 新高。白银也连续上涨三日，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年新高。市场正密切关注白银能否突破1980年1月的历史收 盘高点48.70美元/盎司。 金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首德花旗策略师团队预 测，"在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下，黄金和白银的 牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价又又又创新高，开启长牛模式 金价今日微涨至3749.27美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍强调 未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货币政策无疑是投 资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一步推 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and sent a dovish signal. Economic recession risks have boosted safe - haven demand, and long - term factors such as central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization support gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: In the next week, copper may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - drive has paused. The Shanghai aluminum market may focus on fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate strongly. Alumina may be weak in the short term due to supply surplus, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an excess state, and the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. Zinc prices may fluctuate in the short term [68]. - **Nickel Industry Chain**: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price movements and supply concerns. The new energy sector provides some support, nickel iron prices are firm, and stainless steel has limited downside space [83]. - **Tin**: The decline in tin prices last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. The short - term supply is tight, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Downstream demand may support prices in the future [109]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon futures is complex, and the risk is relatively high [118]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed's interest rate cut, economic data, central bank gold purchases, and de - dollarization affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, gold - silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and gold and US dollar index [4][8][15]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton in the next week [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight as the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine needs 1 - 2 weeks to resume production, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Market Data**: Provide copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data [19][24][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price Analysis**: Interest rate cut expectations and fundamentals affect prices. After the interest rate cut, the focus is on inventory, and prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Alumina Situation**: Supply surplus leads to a weak price outlook in the short term [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Rises due to tight scrap aluminum supply and may fluctuate strongly [38]. - **Market Data**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [39][54][64]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is in excess, and the market's expectation for the peak season is average. LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [68]. - **Market Data**: Provide zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [69][74][79]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Nickel Ore**: The benchmark price has increased, and supply concerns exist due to government intervention in Indonesia [83]. - **New Energy**: Supports nickel - related product prices [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Prices are firm, but high - price transactions have declined [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has limited downside space due to cost support and de - stocking [83]. - **Market Data**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, trading volume, and inventory data [84]. Tin - **Price Analysis**: The decline last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. Supply is tight in the short term, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Market Data**: Provide tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indexes [99][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate before the National Day holiday, and downstream demand may support prices [109]. - **Market Data**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data [110][112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices may rise slightly with the dry season but are limited by inventory [118]. - **Polysilicon**: The trading focus is on the establishment of the September procurement platform and the November warehouse receipt cancellation. The risk is relatively high [118]. - **Market Data**: Provide industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, production, and inventory data [119][120][141].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-09-22 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 习近平与特朗普通电话，通话务实、积极和建设性 观点分享： 据央视新闻，9 月 19 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系 和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。通话是务 实、积极、建设性的。19 日接受《环球时报》记者采访的专家认为，此次中美元首通话再次 为两国关系发挥把舵定向的作用，也再一次确认了两国关系发展的基本方向，这有助于双方 进一步管控分歧。美国《纽约时报》19 日称，两位领导人的对话本身表明，美中关系正趋于 稳定。在 19 日的通话中，习近平指出，中美两国在二战中是并肩战斗的盟友。特朗普 19 日 在社交媒体上发文称，这是一次"非常富有成效"的通话，双方在许多非常重要的问题上取 得进展。他透露，将与中国领导人在于韩国举办的亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议期间举行 会晤，并计划在明年早些时候访问中国。 | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, which is favorable for precious metals [2][3] - The London gold price is $3663.15 per ounce, up $12.05 from September 12, with a growth rate of 0.33% [2][3] - The London silver price is $42.24 per ounce, down $0.02 from September 12, with a decline of -0.05% [2][3] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - The LME copper closing price is $9982 per ton, down $86 from September 12, with a decline of -0.85% [5] - The SHFE copper closing price is 79910 yuan per ton, down 1450 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -1.78% [5] - Domestic aluminum price is 20840 yuan per ton, down 210 yuan from September 12 [7] - The supply side for aluminum is improving, with mid-term demand showing positive trends [7][11] Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price is 269010 yuan per ton, down 5560 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -2.02% [8] - Antimony price is 172500 yuan per ton, down 4000 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -2.27% [9] - Supply for tin is tight due to ongoing maintenance at smelting plants and raw material shortages [8] - Antimony demand is weak, but long-term supply tightness may support prices [12] Group 4: Investment Ratings - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to expected price increases following the Fed's rate cut [10][14] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as supply disruptions and seasonal demand are anticipated [11][14] - The aluminum industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term [11][14] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [12][14] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, as long-term supply tightness may support prices [12][14]