稳定是如今中国股市的底色 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——中国权益策略周报 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 坚定信心，持股过节 2026.02.08 转型牛：更高、更稳、更长 2026.01.18 一年之计在于春 2026.01.04 跨越，远望又新峰 2025.12.28 跨 ...

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 马年A股喜迎"开门红"，节后首个交易日，A股三大指数全线高开收涨。 针对节后A股市场行情，长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表示，A股市场有望企稳回升，当前市场存 在多重积极支撑因素。一是无风险收益率下行与资本市场改革持续深化，贴现率下行对市场估值形成支 撑，为A股营造了良好的流动性环境；二是内需政策全面发力，经济工作将内需置于首要位置，市场对 传统内需板块的悲观预期有望逐步修正，消费与投资端均迎来政策与基本面共振；三是出口景气度向好 预期明确，叠加国内新技术产业突破与全球化扩张提速，共同推动2026年中国经济预期实质性企稳上 修，成为A股上行的关键动力。 投资思路上，汪立认为，新兴科技是主线，价值股也会有春天。中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导， 并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地产企稳"预期"会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交 易出清，价值股有望迎来拐点。 军工，以及储能、电网等出海制造，因为中美的竞争不再只是贸易的竞争，更是生产效率的竞争；大金 融方向或可关注券商、保险等细分方向，作为市场稳定器，该板块将充分受益于财富管理需求的持续 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize gradually after the Spring Festival holiday, with investors advised to hold stocks during the holiday, focusing on domestic demand and emerging technology sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently fluctuating around the 4100-point mark, with a noticeable decline in trading volume [1] - Positive factors for the market include the global market pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while domestic policies are shifting towards prioritizing domestic demand [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized efforts to maintain a stable and positive trend in the capital market, leading to a surge in stock buybacks by A-share companies [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Two main investment directions are recommended: 1. Domestic demand value, with a high probability of outperformance post-holiday, focusing on sectors like food, retail, tourism services, hotels, and commodities such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2] 2. Emerging technology, highlighting the competition between China and the U.S. in production efficiency, with attention on sectors like internet, media, computing, robotics, electronics, military industry, and energy storage [2]

□本报记者王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 李坤元认为，2026年的宏观环境将迎来积极拐点。一方面，美联储降息确定性高，全球流动性趋于宽 松；另一方面，"十五五"规划开局之年政策协 ...

□本报记者 王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 她始终相信："时代造英雄，每个时代都有自己的英雄。"当前，正处于科技起舞的时代，人工智能 （AI）、先进制造、新型消费与医药等是中长期 ...

[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up 1.14% and 1% respectively, indicating a divergence in market trends as institutions provide insights on future movements [2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the adjustment of financing margins does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but impacts its structure, emphasizing the importance of performance indicators as the annual report preview period approaches [2] - Huaxi Securities maintains that the slow bull trend of A-shares remains intact, with a focus on sectors showing high growth or improving conditions as macro policies support economic recovery [3] - Galaxy Securities notes that investor sentiment is highly active, with a continuous increase in margin trading balances, indicating a stable long-term bullish foundation for the market despite short-term fluctuations [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified along two main lines: the acceleration of global changes favoring technology innovation and growth sectors, and the recovery of manufacturing and resource sectors due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5] - The first main line focuses on technology sectors such as AI and robotics, while the second emphasizes the recovery paths for industries like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [5] - Auxiliary opportunities include the continuation of consumption policies aimed at boosting demand and the trend of companies expanding their profitability through international markets [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current AI+ high beta still has support, but a more balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on performance improvements in AI hardware and opportunities in AI application sectors with lower institutional positions [1] - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan should emphasize new themes transitioning to main lines, such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [1] - The current market trend is characterized by a dual focus on technology and cycles, with price increase clues and anti-involution support making cyclical styles promising [1] Group 2 - The hardware cycle discussion highlights the concept of "stronger becoming stronger" and the potential for valuation digestion if ΔG shows signs of weakness, although no significant turning point for ΔG has been observed yet [1] - The 2000 US tech bubble serves as a reminder that during the bubble formation phase, many tech companies experienced rapid valuation increases disconnected from actual profitability, driven by blind expectations and emotions [2] - The "6+6" model illustrates the process from bubble to disillusionment, emphasizing that true market survivors possess technological leadership, clear profit paths, and sound capital management [2] Group 3 - The end of the mobile internet era in A-shares from 2013 to 2015 reflects a similar disconnect between valuation and profitability, with weak macro cycles leading to concentrated trading in high-demand sectors [3] - The acceleration of leveraged funds contributed to a lack of safety margins in valuations, and the sustainability of industry competition and business models became critical considerations post-bubble [3]

Group 1 - The next "commercial space" opportunity is emerging with the approaching inflection point in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, highlighting the importance of focusing on core segments [2] - The military industry is identified as a "value pit," with investment opportunities in the accelerating delivery of the large aircraft industry chain [2] - Overseas computing power may be undervalued, with "light entering the cabinet" potentially becoming the largest industrial opportunity this year [2] Group 2 - Improved antitrust expectations combined with AI applications are expected to catalyze a valuation recovery for Hong Kong's internet sector [2] - The discussion includes perspectives on Alibaba, particularly regarding its traditional business pressures and the resilience of its AI cloud services [2]