Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price continues to rise due to supply disruptions and strong demand, and it may remain strong in the future. The sugar price keeps falling because of sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to decline further. The prices of live pigs, soybean meal, and cotton are all under pressure, while the egg price shows a narrow - range fluctuation [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil prices continue to rise. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' operating licenses and Malaysia's production - reduction and export - increase situation support the price. Sugar prices keep falling due to sufficient supply from new domestic sugar and increased imports and weak demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 continues to rise strongly. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' licenses affects the supply. From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.04% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. During the Spring Festival, demand may improve. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to look for support levels at 8750 - 8780 to go long with a light position [2]. (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continues to fall. New sugar is concentrated on the market, and in December, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. The pre - festival stocking has limited effect, and the downstream purchasing slows down. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 5180 - 5200 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to fall. The pig slaughter level is high, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 11600 - 11700 [5]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rebounds weakly. The downstream feed enterprise pre - festival stocking is nearly over, and the inventory may rise. The raw material import of soybeans is large, and the supply is sufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position for short - term trading [7]. (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 has a narrow - range fluctuation. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply is sufficient. The pre - festival stocking supports the price, but the downstream is afraid of high prices. Technically, it shows some strength. The strategy is short - term trading [9]. (6) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 first rises and then falls. The expected decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been digested. In December 2025, cotton imports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, and the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. The inventory increased slightly. The demand is resilient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different trends and requiring continuous attention to various factors such as policies, weather, and market supply and demand [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans significantly reduced positions and prices declined. The bid - auction of 33,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGS on Wednesday this week was fully sold at a low - price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average price of 3950 yuan/ton, with zero premium. It is necessary to continuously follow the guidance from the policy and spot ends [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - U.S. soybeans are oscillating strongly at the bottom. The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar is relatively favorable for U.S. soybean exports. However, the weather in South America has continuously improved, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 75%. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic, and U.S. soybeans continue the bottom - oscillating trend. It is necessary to follow the specific export situation of U.S. soybeans and the continuous impact of La Nina weather in South America [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesia revoked the operating licenses of some plantation - related enterprises on Tuesday, increasing the influence and assessment difficulty of policies on palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil short - term high - frequency data shows an increase in exports and a decrease in production, which is beneficial to the improvement of its supply - demand structure. The RIN market price of U.S. soybean oil is still strong, and if it continues to strengthen, it will drive up U.S. soybean oil. The overall view on soybean and palm oil is range - bound [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures fluctuated in a narrow range today, and the external Canadian rapeseed also fluctuated around 640 Canadian dollars/ton. The futures markets in China and Canada have fully digested the improvement of economic and trade relations. It is necessary to pay attention to the official announcement of tariff adjustments for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed downstream is at a low level, and the near - term supply is expected to be tight. Rapeseed meal demand is weak. It is expected that rapeseed products will fluctuate in a range - bound manner [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China are slightly stronger. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises this morning increased significantly compared with yesterday, and some enterprises lowered their purchase prices. The increase in state and local reserve auctions may gradually form pressure. This year's corn supply is relatively sufficient. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.6 Live Hogs - Live hog futures have fallen for three consecutive days. The spot price has significantly corrected today, and the decline in northern provinces with large previous increases has also expanded. The sharp decline in the live hog futures market since Monday this week may mark the end of the recent phased rebound. It is expected that there will still be a low point in hog prices in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - Egg futures are oscillating. The spot price is mostly stable today, with an increase in Hebei. In the short term, the futures and spot prices of eggs have been adjusted. In the long - term, the industry's fundamentals are gradually improving, and the inventory of laying hens is in a downward trend. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [9]

软商品日报 2026/01/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term peanut price is relatively stable due to stable prices of domestic and imported peanuts, large price difference between oil - used and commodity peanuts, sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. Peanut futures will still fluctuate at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices on a light - position short - term basis, stay on the sidelines for the month - spread, and sell pk603 - P - 8200 when the price is high [3][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7896, up 32 (0.41%), with a trading volume of 14,202 (down 33.17%) and an open interest of 26,833 (down 5.71%); PK610 closed at 8232, up 24 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 112 (up 133.33%) and an open interest of 2,742 (down 0.25%); PK601 closed at 8234, up 56 (0.68%), with a trading volume of 1 (down 66.67%) and an open interest of 2 (unchanged) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Henan Nanyang spot price was 7400, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8000. Sunflower meal in Rizhao was 3250, soybean meal was 3080 (down 10), peanut oil was 14320, and first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8410 (down 20). Imported Sudanese rice was 8600. PK01 - PK04 spread was 338 (up 24), PK04 - PK10 was - 336 (up 8), PK10 - PK01 was - 2 (down 32) [1] Part 2: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan were stable, and those in Northeast China were relatively strong. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.6 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.6 yuan/jin. Henan Baisha common peanuts were 3.65 - 3.8 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan was 3.5 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined rice was 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new rice was 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 specification rice was 8000 yuan/ton. Peanut oil prices were stable, with mainstream factory purchase prices at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and a theoretical break - even price of 7800 yuan/ton. Rizhao soybean meal was weak, and peanut meal was relatively strong [3][5] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices on a light - position short - term basis [8] - **Month - spread**: Stay on the sidelines [9] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 when the price is high [10] Part 4: Relevant Attachments - There are six figures including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil factory's profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [12][15][18]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 |数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2026/1/21 | 指标 | | 1月20日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 484 | -9 | ==== 16/17 == 2500 | == == | == == | ===== 19/20 - 24/25 | | ===== 20/21 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 日照 | 384 | -9 | 2000 1000 -500 | | | | | | | | 天津 | 424 | -9 | 1500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 364 | -9 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a high - level consolidation phase with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The limited remaining grain in the producing areas and auction premiums provide bottom support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users restricts the upside [2] - The peanut market has sufficient supply. The overall trading rhythm is dull, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in downstream stocking progress before the Spring Festival [3][4] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the Dou - Yi 2605 contract yesterday was 4338.00 yuan/ton, up 17.00 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 102, down 17 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in Northeast China were stable, and the trading enthusiasm in the trade link increased. For example, the loading price of standard first - class 39% protein medium - grain tower grain in Harbin was 2.22 yuan/jin [1] - Market situation: Yesterday, the price of the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upwards. The prices in southern producing areas were stable, with some high - protein soybeans having a price - raising intention but limited actual sales. The downstream inquiry enthusiasm in the sales areas increased, but the transaction focus remained the same. The market is in an oscillating pattern [2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7906.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton or 0.23% month - on - month. The basis was PK03 - 906.00, up 16.00 or 1.80% month - on - month. The national average price of general peanuts was 8000 yuan/jin, up 18 yuan/ton. The purchase prices of oil mills were stable, and the arrival volume decreased in some areas due to snow and rain [3] - Market situation: Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated slightly within a narrow range. The domestic peanut market has sufficient supply. The transaction prices in some producing areas increased slightly, but the overall trading rhythm was dull [3] Strategies - For soybeans, the strategy is neutral [3] - For peanuts, the strategy is also neutral [5]

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米主力 | | 玉米 | 2603 合约减仓调整，玉米期价先跌后涨，日线收带长下影线的 | 震荡偏弱 | | 小阳线。受玉米近月合约期价下跌影响，玉米远期 | | | 2605、2607 合约跟随调整。 | | | 目前东北玉米价格暂以稳定为主，有存货贸易商随行出货，基层目前也以随行出 | | | | | | 货为主，低价售粮意向暂显一般。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏强运行，受北方降雪 | | | | | | 影响，贸易商到货成本支撑下报价坚挺。下游目前备货谨慎为主，维持安全头寸 | | | | | | 滚动补库，市场未出现集中补库现象。技术上，玉米市场的近期表现主要受到周 | | | | | | 边商品及情绪的影响。玉米 | | | 5 月合约期价先弱后强，产区潮粮收购价格上涨，5 | | | 月合约期价下行，基差走强。 | | | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆小幅下跌，结束此前三连涨，投资者对美欧紧张关系保持警惕， 同时巴西产量创纪 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of soybean meal will continue, and the market will fluctuate. The harvest of South American soybeans and the export of US soybeans need to be closely monitored [3] - For corn, the current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [6] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day. The spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3160 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3070 yuan/ton respectively, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis in these regions decreased by 9 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The soybean meal inventory has decreased significantly but remains above one million tons, higher than the same period last year. The recent good performance of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and the future supply pressure will continue [3] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [4] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2280 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2550 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day. The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - **Market Analysis**: As the shipping situation has improved, the inventories at the north and south ports have increased slightly. However, due to the high price at the south port, feed enterprises have not carried out large-scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average [5][6] - **Strategy**: Neutral [7]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 21 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨跌幅0%，收于2272 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业报价小幅上涨。东北地区企业收 | | | | | 购价2179元/吨，较前一日涨3元/吨；华北地区收购均价2280元/吨，较前一日涨2 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口价格北稳南弱。锦州港15%水二等玉 | | | | | 米收购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较前一日 | | | | | 持平。 | | | | | 3、售 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内 1 月油厂大豆压榨量环比降低，叠加春节备货需求，豆粕库存连续三周下降至 94.80 万吨， 沿海库存降 8.80%。尽管现货挺价，但巴西丰产及加速收割强化远期供应宽松预期。豆粕节前受备货需求 支撑库存去化，但大豆供应充裕下，油厂豆粕库存存在修复预期，短期豆类期价整体仍承压运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...