Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have significantly increased this week, with the main contract rising from 8141 yuan/ton to 8388 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton, driven by poor quality of early-ripening apples and low inventory levels [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The opening price of early-ripening apples, such as Chen Yang, Qin Yang, and Gala, is generally higher than the same period last year, with paper-bag Gala prices increasing by 0.3 to 1 yuan/pound year-on-year [1] - Current old apple inventory is at a historical low, creating a tight supply-demand balance that supports apple prices [1] - As of August 28, the national cold storage inventory of apples is 353,500 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 299,600 tons [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding new season apple production, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 759,300 tons to an increase of 859,300 tons year-on-year [2] - The current apple market fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant weather-related issues expected to affect fruit size [2] - The apple futures market is primarily focused on new season production and quality expectations, with short-term attention on early-ripening apples and weather impacts on late-ripening Fuji apples [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a possibility of price correction as the actual harvest approaches, depending on weather conditions affecting apple quality [3] - If the weather is favorable during the harvest period, apple quality may improve; however, adverse weather could lead to further price increases [3] - While apple futures prices are expected to remain strong before the new crop is widely available, medium to long-term pressures may arise if late-ripening apples grow well [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Bullish)**: None - **Sell (Bearish)**: None - **Neutral**: None - **One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Three Stars**: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and it's advisable to wait for stabilization and go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spread may widen further [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig spot prices are stabilizing with minor fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support around 13800 for the 01 contract [3]. Corn - Spot corn prices are weak, and the futures price has rebounded. In the medium - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the futures valuation may move down towards the new - season cost [6]. Oils - Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the basis quote will be boosted after the factory inventory decreases [9]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from increased supply expectations, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating weakly [11]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new - cotton prices will face pressure after listing [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: Soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.34% to 2500 yuan/ton; soybean spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.17% to 225; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased 36.36% to 75 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis increased 42.42% to - 190; the price of the 2511 contract dropped 1.13% to 13590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with the sample - point daily slaughter volume increasing 0.32% to 142240 heads [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract increased 0.97% to 2185; the 11 - 3 spread increased 40% to - 15 [6]. - **Spot**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit decreased 52.63% [6]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8740 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; the basis decreased 13.73% to 204 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased 4.35% to 46 [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 0.7%; the basis decreased 127.85% to 79 [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract dropped 0.32% to 5602 yuan/ton; the 1 - 9 spread increased 9.09% to - 10 [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning dropped 0.17% to 5910 yuan/ton; the import volume increased 160% to 130,000 tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract dropped 0.51% to 13690 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread decreased 20.63% to - 380 [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B dropped 0.06% to 15240 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory decreased 16.9% to 182.02 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract dropped 1.83% to 2843 yuan/500KG; the 9 - 10 spread decreased 10.13% to - 87 [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area dropped 0.81% to 3.26 yuan/jin; the breeding profit increased 20.84% to - 17.89 yuan/feather [14][15].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Soybean Meal: Stable US Soybeans, Fluctuating Dalian Soybean Meal" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Wu Guangjing, with an investment consulting qualification number of Z0011992 and an email of wuguangjing@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Futures and Spot Price Information Futures - DCE Soybean 2511 closed at 3927 yuan/ton during the day session, down 8 yuan (-0.20%), and 3924 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.23%) - DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton during the day session, down 6 yuan (-0.20%), and 3037 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.30%) - CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, unchanged (+0.00%) - CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 287.8 dollars/short ton, down 0.9 dollars (-0.31%) [2] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, unchanged - In East China, the price was 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with various basis levels and changes as described - In South China, the price was 2970 - 3030 yuan/ton, with different basis levels and changes [2] Group 4: Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.6 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 28, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results, with the benchmark contract barely changing. US soybean export sales improved, but Chinese demand remained a limiting factor. As of August 21, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season decreased by 189,200 tons, while the net sales in the 2025/26 season were 1,372,600 tons, a new high for the new crop and higher than the previous week and market expectations [2][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.9% to 67.28 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 fell 0.18% to 14,070 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1,889 lots to 510,700 lots. In the international market, attention should be paid to macro and weather changes, and the time for India to import cotton duty - free has been extended to December. In the US, the dollar index was weakly volatile, and the center of the US cotton futures price moved up. Domestically, the position of Zhengzhou cotton increased by nearly 60,000 lots last night. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. As time passes, the market focus will shift to new cotton, with limited supply - demand contradictions and a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. After the new cotton is launched, there is a pressure of high - yield and support from the downstream "scrambling for purchase" expectation. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price will mainly run in a firm and volatile manner [2]. - Sugar: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 72 from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 194,800 tons to 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 6.67%. Domestic spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the position of the futures main contract decreased for three consecutive trading days. The raw sugar futures price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is believed that the domestic futures price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should wait patiently for trading opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged from the previous day; the main basis was 1,266, down 1 from the previous day; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; the national spot price was 15,336 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread was 38, up 6 from the previous day; the main basis was 373, up 8 from the previous day; the Nanning spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On August 28, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,720, down 139 from the previous day, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,240 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,351 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,358 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,458 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.7, down 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On August 28, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,539, down 367 from the previous day, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, etc., but no specific analysis of the charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda ash glass, cotton, and other fields respectively, and have rich research experience and many honors [20][21][22].

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周，玉米主力 2511 合约增仓上行，期价小涨。周二，玉米 9 月合约领涨、11 | | | | 月合约跟涨。与上周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。东北玉米价格向新粮靠 | | | | 拢，目前以持续下调为主，市场对新季玉米的价格目前暂持谨慎之态，新季玉米 | | | | 干粮价格预估低于目前干粮价格。近期山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，企 | | | | 业价格窄幅下调，昨日部分企业继续下跌，但下跌范围明显缩小。当前华北本地 | | | | 陈玉米和春玉米以及早期玉米、东北玉米共同供应市场，虽然陈粮库存少，但粮 | | | 玉米 | 源供应多样化。下游企业采购意愿较弱，控制采购节奏。销区市场玉米价格部分 | 震荡 | | | 港口下跌 10-20 元/吨，市场整体采购心态偏弱，饲料厂维持观望心态为主，港 | | | | 口走货速度偏慢，贸易商报价下调，短期市场需求难有较大回暖。技术上，11 | | | | 月合约成为主力合约，新粮上市的供应压力继续影响市场，玉米期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term may have fluctuations, but the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. The Y2601 contract may have short - term fluctuations, and different strategies are recommended for different types of investors [3]. - The market expects a significant reduction in China's procurement of Canadian rapeseed. The short - term of rapeseed oil may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and import policy dynamics [3]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased in the short - term, and exports are good. The domestic consumption is weak, but the long - term view is still bullish, with short - term adjustment needs [4]. - The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 have weakened due to increased imports and uncertain Sino - US trade relations. Short - term short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - Rapeseed meal may adjust downward in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the expected reduction in subsequent rapeseed procurement [5]. - Corn and corn starch futures prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [5]. - The price of soybean No. 1 is under pressure due to the approaching new soybean listing and the continuous state reserve auction. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - The new - season peanuts have an expected increase in production, which exerts pressure on prices. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to reduce short positions [7]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, but there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - term. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [7][8]. - The egg futures price has fallen to a low level. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, and aggressive investors can consider buying the 11 - contract at low prices [8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 4145 - 4150 yuan/ton; soybean No. 2 11 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton; peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8100 - 8162 yuan/ton [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to be bullish in shock, with a support level of 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9600 - 9610 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9998 - 10343 yuan/ton; palm oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9074 - 9338 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9900 - 9990 yuan/ton [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2980 - 3000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2400 - 2431 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2632 - 2698 yuan/ton [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton; corn starch 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound in shock, with a support level of 13500 - 13750 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton; egg 10 - contract is expected to find the bottom in shock, with a support level of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see, except for the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread, which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and the live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads, which are recommended for positive arbitrage at low prices [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different strategies such as short - selling, long - buying, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended for different oil - related and protein - related inter - variety spreads [13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and开机率 (start - up rate) data of different oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory and开机率 of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19] 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock Farming - It provides daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, inventory, and profit - related data [21][22][23][24] Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, production, consumption, and other aspects of live pigs and eggs [27][29][30][34] - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, import profit, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil [37][38][41] - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and oil mill开机率 in the United States and China [44][45][46] - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory [51][53] - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and consumption in deep - processing enterprises [55][56][57] - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices,开机率, and inventory [60][61] - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and pressing profit [62][64][70] - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of soybean growth progress, inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [74][77] Part IV: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [79][80][82] Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [86][88][90]

当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.10美元，比前一交易日上涨4 美分，涨幅为0.99%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.29美元，比前一交易日上涨4.75美分，涨幅为 0.91%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.48美元，比前一交易日上涨0.5美分，涨幅为0.05%。 大豆11月合约今日交易已突破昨日低点，表明价格将有进一步下行势头。玉米12月合约已测试4.03美元 图表支撑位。由于单产超出预期，美国农民正在三角洲地区和中西部偏南地区加大玉米现货销售力度。 玉米下一轮价格突破应该由现货主导。美国和全球小麦期货价格已跌至合约新低。全球小麦价格正试图 寻找能够重建出口需求的价格。 全球饲料谷物进口争夺战已经开始，美国需要保持积极的出口销售步伐。市场分析机构认为，由于豆粕 价差承压，大豆11月合约期价突破10.50美元的可能性较低。 美国农业部已连续4天没有出口报告。 新华财经纽约8月28日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价28日全线上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国农业部28日发布的出口销量报告显示，截至8月21日当周，美国小麦出口销量2130万蒲式耳，新作 物玉 ...

Core Insights - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on August 28, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.18% to 16.50 cents per pound, while cotton futures rose by 0.90% to 67.28 cents per pound. Conversely, cocoa futures decreased by 1.04% to $7,765 per ton, and coffee futures fell by 2.49% to 375.70 cents per pound [1] Group 1 - Raw sugar futures increased by 0.18% to 16.50 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.90% to 67.28 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures decreased by 1.04% to $7,765 per ton [1] Group 2 - Coffee futures fell by 2.49% to 375.70 cents per pound [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间8月28日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨0.07%报1048.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.17%报410.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.05%报 529.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...