Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged past 150,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the lithium sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, all lithium carbonate futures contracts were locked, with the main contract 2605 rising by 9% to 156,100 yuan per ton [2]. - The current market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate ranges from 141,500 to 154,800 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8,550 yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [3]. - This policy may influence the export rhythm of downstream battery companies, potentially leading to a "rush to export" behavior before the tax rate adjustment [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - The lithium battery industry has experienced two significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with lithium carbonate prices peaking at 180,000 yuan per ton in 2019 before dropping to 48,000 yuan per ton by the end of that year [6][7]. - The second wave of price fluctuations began in 2020, with prices reaching nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 due to high demand and profit margins, followed by a sharp decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton amid oversupply [7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since mid-September 2025, lithium carbonate prices have nearly doubled, driven by multiple factors including regulatory signals and production issues in key mining regions [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate has exceeded expectations, particularly in the traditional peak seasons, with significant growth in the energy storage sector [9][10]. - Recent increases in operating rates among phosphate lithium enterprises have further boosted demand, leading to a temporary supply shortage and ongoing inventory depletion [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face fluctuations due to simultaneous upstream maintenance and the traditional off-peak season from late January to February [10]. - The adjustment of the export tax policy may add uncertainty to short-term demand patterns, with potential for continued inventory reduction during the traditional off-peak period [10].

Battery - Demand for passenger vehicle batteries has slowed down this week, while orders for energy storage and commercial vehicles are relatively saturated, leading to stable production for companies with a high proportion of energy storage business and a noticeable decline for those focused on power batteries. Overall, market supply is expected to decrease slightly, with an anticipated reduction of less than 5% [1] New Energy Vehicles - After the holiday, the consumer market for new energy vehicles remains in a wait-and-see state, with companies continuing to implement price cuts and various financial policy subsidies, entering a phase of reduced competition. Prices for motors, batteries, and chips have increased, making it difficult for car manufacturers. According to the Passenger Car Association, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 23.779 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4%; cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 12.859 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18%; the cumulative penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 54.08% [2] - By 2025, CATL plans to establish 1,020 "Chocolate" battery swap stations and 305 "Qiji" swap stations; the goal for 2026 is to have a total of 3,000 "Chocolate" swap stations and 900 "Qiji" swap stations [2] CATL - The growth of the energy storage market is outpacing that of the power battery market [10]

锂电池出口退税调整对碳酸锂品种的影响 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 期货研究报告|新能源专题报告 2026-01-12 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 投资咨询号：Z0014660 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 报告摘要 2026 年 1 月 8 日，国家财政部和税务总局公布了《财政部 税务总局关于调整光伏等产 品出口退税政策的公告》，其中提到自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电 池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值 税出口退税。该政策是针对新能源行业"反内卷"的最新要求，再次强调了国家对锂电行 业未来发展的重视程度。本次分析将就退税调整政策及"反内卷"对锂电行业及碳酸锂品 种的影响进行探讨。 2025 年以后，我国锂电行业进入新的阶段，一方面国内企业市场占比不断提升，技术方 面全球领先，但另一方面国内企业竞争白热化，利润率不足，因此为了行业的长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices raises questions about whether it reflects genuine demand in the industry or is driven by speculative capital and potential risks, indicating a distortion of price signals and risk transfer within the lithium battery supply chain [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, lithium carbonate futures prices reached 145,000 yuan/ton, with spot market prices also rising sharply, surpassing 120,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton, indicating a continued upward trend since last year [3]. - By December 2025, the capital in the lithium carbonate futures market approached 30 billion yuan, ranking fourth among commodity futures, with speculative funds accounting for 52% of the total, highlighting a market driven more by profit-seeking than risk hedging [5]. - The disparity between futures and spot prices has widened, with futures prices trading at a discount to spot prices, indicating a detachment from the underlying supply-demand fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Downstream enterprises report that current transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with no significant stockpiling behavior observed, contrasting sharply with the heated futures market [6]. - The surge in futures prices has led to increased import prices for lithium concentrate, which rose from 617 USD/ton in June 2025 to 1,400 USD/ton by December, a 127% increase, forcing lithium salt manufacturers to pass on costs to downstream products [8]. - The actual global lithium resource situation is not one of scarcity, but rather a structural contradiction in the supply chain, with significant resources concentrated in specific regions, leading to high raw material costs for domestic industries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Predictions - Experts note that while there have been significant changes in the lithium carbonate industry since 2025, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, with predictions indicating a slight surplus in 2025 [11]. - Domestic companies are actively expanding production capacity, with new projects being launched, such as a 450,000-ton phosphoric acid lithium project and a 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project [12]. - The real issue in the market is not an overall surplus but a structural tension in high-quality battery-grade capacity, with speculation distorting the perception of a general shortage [12]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Stability - The speculative nature of the market poses significant risks to the health of the industry, leading to distorted business operations and potential over-investment in low-quality capacities [15]. - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to curb excessive speculation, including increasing transaction costs and limiting trading volumes to stabilize the market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to regulate the lithium battery industry and guide capital back to rationality, ensuring that pricing power remains aligned with fundamental industry conditions [16].

Macro and Strategy - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since the end of 2025, with industrial and precious metals leading the rise, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in global economic structure [7][8] - The demand for computing power is driving a divergence in commodity prices, with significant increases in copper and oil ratios indicating a new economic growth model centered around "computing power + electricity" [7][8] - The macroeconomic indicators show a recovery in China's economy, with December's manufacturing PMI returning above the expansion threshold, indicating effective policy support [10][11] Industry and Company - The AIDC power equipment sector is expected to benefit from the surge in data center construction, with major tech companies accelerating their investments in AI data centers [26][27] - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with significant improvements in profitability expected for lithium battery companies in 2026 due to ongoing demand for energy storage [26][30] - The global energy storage demand is projected to reach 404 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38%, driven by market demand and supportive government policies [28] - Wind power equipment manufacturers are expected to see improved profitability in 2026, with domestic installations projected to grow by 10%-20% [28] - The electric grid equipment sector is anticipated to experience increased demand, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage approvals and the introduction of new smart meter standards [29]

Price Trends - The main contract for lithium carbonate showed a "strong surge + high-level fluctuation" this week, with a weekly increase of approximately 17.96%, reaching a peak of 148,500 CNY/ton before closing at 143,420 CNY/ton [2][8] - The domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate market had a transaction price range of 135,000-141,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 138,000 CNY/ton, up 17.95% from last week [2][8] - The battery-grade lithium carbonate market had a transaction price range of 137,000-143,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 140,000 CNY/ton, up 17.65% from last week [2][8] Supply Side - Lithium carbonate production maintained slight growth this week, with a total weekly output of 22,535 tons, compared to 22,420 tons last week [2][8] - The production breakdown includes spodumene lithium carbonate at 13,959 tons, mica at 2,956 tons, salt lake at 3,185 tons, and recycled lithium carbonate at 3,185 tons, all showing minor increases from the previous week [2][8] Demand Side - According to Baichuan data, lithium iron phosphate production increased by 18.26% month-on-month, while ternary materials decreased by 7.86% [3][9] - Demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, although some lithium iron phosphate and hexafluorophosphate lithium producers plan maintenance, and seasonal factors are suppressing short-term raw material procurement [3][9] - Current spot inventory stands at 109,942 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 337 tons [3][9] Profitability - Lithium concentrate prices are following the upward trend of lithium carbonate futures prices, with mining companies showing a strong willingness to maintain prices despite ample imports [4][10] - Integrated companies are enjoying considerable profits, while processing companies relying on purchased raw materials are experiencing relatively thin margins [4][10] Regulatory Environment - On January 7, a joint meeting was held by several government agencies to further regulate the power and energy storage battery industry [4][10] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [4][10] Strategy - The lithium carbonate price continues to rise, but the inventory turning point has been reached, leading to increased divergence in market sentiment; a cautious approach is recommended to avoid high-level chasing risks [5][11] - Short-term strategies include range trading and selling high for hedging [5][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products reflects the optimization and transformation of the government's support for the new energy industry, aiming to promote high-quality development in sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [1][2][3] Group 2 - The announcement states that from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely canceled, marking the first time this has occurred since the policy was introduced in October 2013, where companies previously enjoyed up to a 50% rebate [2][3] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that the cancellation of export rebates is expected to help stabilize overseas market prices and reduce the risk of trade frictions, while also alleviating the financial burden on the state [3][5] - The adjustment in export tax rebates is seen as a policy to promote high-quality development in the industry, with a warning effect already observed from the previous reduction in rebate rates [3][5] Group 3 - The policy adjustment for battery products includes a phased reduction of the export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, aimed at guiding the industry away from mere scale expansion and towards enhancing product technology and value [5][6] - Major battery export companies include CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with CATL reporting a domestic gross margin of 23% and an overseas margin of 29% in Q1 2025 [6] - The upcoming changes in export tax rebates may lead to a short-term surge in export orders as companies rush to fulfill shipments before the new rates take effect, potentially benefiting the demand for lithium carbonate [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a historical 16 consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, humanoid robots, and resource stocks [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market rally is attributed to concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with a notable focus on thematic stocks and small-cap stocks rather than traditional allocation strategies [3][13]. - Short-term market sentiment remains high, with no signs of weakening emotional indicators, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [3][13]. - The market is currently characterized by a high level of trading activity, with a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong investor confidence [16]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from external demand recovery, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite potential short-term profit-taking pressures [19]. - The resource sector, particularly traditional manufacturing, is advised for increased allocation, with a focus on enhancing pricing power [3][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to be a favorable period for the market, with historical data suggesting that significant trading volumes often lead to sustained upward trends [16]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of basic performance evaluation after the annual report disclosures in January, which may provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth potential [17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the upward potential in the market outweighs the risks, with a focus on sectors that align with long-term growth trends, such as AI and semiconductor industries [20].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong start to the year, with major indices showing significant increases, indicating a rise in market risk appetite [5] - The financing amount increased significantly, reflecting a continued optimistic performance in the market [5] - The spring market rally is anticipated to continue, supported by improved market sentiment [5] Group 2: Fixed Income - In the credit bond market, 332 bonds were issued with a total issuance scale of 312.27 billion, marking a 30.6% increase compared to the previous period [6] - Credit spreads varied across industries, with the largest increase in the food and beverage sector (up 2.1 basis points) and the largest decrease in the telecommunications sector (down 8.3 basis points) [6] Group 3: Commodities - The TC spot price reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while domestic social inventory continues to grow [7] - Despite the pressure on demand from rising copper prices, the supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, with a positive outlook for copper prices in 2026 [7] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The small nucleic acid drug market is projected to experience rapid growth in 2026, with key players like Bluestar Technology and Lonza leading breakthroughs in critical areas [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has introduced measures against Japan, increasing the urgency for domestic substitution of key semiconductor materials [8] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The photovoltaic industry is expected to focus on coordination and method restructuring, while the battery industry is advised to prevent oversupply in energy storage batteries [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power, hydrogen energy, and upstream energy storage sectors, with a positive outlook for lithium carbonate prices in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]