Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flow. It shows the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as the impact of weather on soybean crops and international and domestic macro - economic factors on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather and Crop Impact**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal rainfall and cooler temperatures in the future. The Midwest has continuous showers, which are generally beneficial for soybean growth [4][6]. - **International Supply and Demand**: BMI predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover to 1.95 billion tons in 2025/26, while domestic consumption will decline. Indonesia transfers nearly 400,000 hectares of confiscated oil palm plantations. Analysts' forecasts for USDA reports on global and South American crop production, export sales, and EU rapeseed production are also provided [8][10][12]. - **Market Transactions**: On July 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The opening rate of oil mills declined. Agricultural product prices showed some fluctuations [13]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in July and September is estimated. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil. US economic data such as wholesale sales, mortgage application index, and EIA inventories are presented. Malaysia's central bank cuts interest rates [15]. - **Domestic News**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate rises. The Chinese central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's June CPI and PPI data are released, and the expected GDP scale for this year is mentioned [17]. 05 Capital Flow On July 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.597 billion yuan, with details of capital flow in different sectors such as commodity and stock index futures [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨0.62%。 美国EIA库存超预期增加712.8万桶,OPEC+延续快速 增产策略强化年内特别是四季度的供需宽松预期。但从三季度时间窗口来看,一方面石油旺季消费 对原油实货采购构成支撑，欧洲柴油的供应犹动引发炼化利润修复预期；另一方面，已被延期至8月 1日执行的美国对等关税最终博弈结构大概率弱于4月初水平,围绕伊核争端的中东地缘风险亦未彻 底消除,我们对三季度原油价格仍持底部抬升、震荡偏强判断,空头策略需等待旺季影响弱化后再 行介入。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元，基差走低存在一定期现套利机会，交割 品牌溢价成交。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维持在400- 500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，降息暂时落空后市场焦点转 向即将到期的美国关税政策，特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈判提 供了缓冲，同时他表示拟对铜加征50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents overnight market information on soybeans and rapeseed in the United States and Canada, including crop growth rates, export inspection volumes, and crop quality rates, as well as spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year; the emergence rate was 96%, up from 94% the previous week and lower than 98% in the same period last year and the five - year average; the flowering rate was 32%, up from 17% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average; the pod - setting rate was 8%, up from 3% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average [1]. - As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 389,364 tons, within the market forecast range; the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons; the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 46,253,445 tons, higher than 41,848,481 tons in the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%, up from 57.7% the previous week. As of the week ending July 2, the rapeseed in Manitoba was at various growth stages. The weather forecast for the next 15 days in Canada's main rapeseed - producing areas shows that the temperature will mostly be above normal and the average precipitation will be below normal [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/01 | 2830 | 2470 | 8200 | 8450 | 9630 | | 2025/07/02 | 2800 | 2460 | 8220 | 8510 | 9710 | | 2025/07/03 | 2810 | 2490 | 8210 | 8530 | 9760 | | 2025/07/04 | 2800 | 2490 | 8150 | 8520 | 9740 | | 2025/07/07 | 2790 | 2470 | 8080 | 8520 | 9670 | [2]

Group 1 - Ningxia is experiencing a peak season for the harvest of cool-season vegetables, with fresh produce like vegetable hearts and broccoli being quickly processed and shipped to international markets such as Dubai and Hong Kong [1][2] - The region's high altitude, cool climate, and significant temperature variations make it an ideal location for growing high-quality cool-season vegetables, with 70% of the produce being exported via cold chain logistics [1][3] - The local customs authority has implemented a "green channel" for the inspection of fresh agricultural products, which includes expedited checks and certifications to enhance the freshness of exported vegetables [1][2] Group 2 - To further promote the export of Ningxia's specialty agricultural products, the local customs has established a dedicated task force to support the high-quality development of advantageous industries, facilitating rapid registration processes for planting bases [2][3] - The establishment of efficient logistics channels has significantly accelerated the export of Ningxia's vegetables, with cool-season vegetables reaching Dubai within 8 hours via passenger flight cargo [2][3] - In 2024, the export value of Ningxia's agricultural products is projected to reach 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.3%, with vegetable exports alone increasing by 112.4% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures have been oscillating downward recently. Due to factors such as increased planting area in the US, good growth conditions, and domestic import auctions increasing supply, along with wheat's substitution advantage, the corn market is under pressure. Corn starch futures have also declined, affected by the drop in corn prices. Although the supply pressure of corn starch has weakened and the spot price is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [9][10][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [9] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the US corn planting area decreased slightly compared to the March estimate but increased by 5% compared to 2024. The US corn inventory in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 7% year - on - year. The domestic import corn auction started on July 1, with significant premiums. On July 4, the auction volume increased to 306,000 tons. Wheat has a significant substitution advantage, and the feed demand for corn has decreased. The corn futures price has been oscillating downward from a high level [10] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [13] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Recently, it has been affected by the decline in corn prices [14] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 9 - month contract of corn futures oscillated downward, with a total position of 945,346 lots, a decrease of 28,424 lots from the previous week. The 9 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated downward, with a total position of 178,348 lots, an increase of 28,954 lots from the previous week [20] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 35,964, and the net short position decreased compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 11,107, and the net short position also decreased [27] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 204,318, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 22,643 [33] Spot Price and Basis - As of July 3, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 9 - month contract and the spot average price was + 84 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2940 yuan/ton. The basis between the 9 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 133 yuan/ton [38][42] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 62 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 9 - month contract of starch and corn was 364 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [57] Substitute Spread - As of July 3, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 14.03 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 120 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - **Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, the same as the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 81.9% [70] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93% week - on - week, and an increase of 1.62% year - on - year [74] Corn Demand - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [78] - **Breeding Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 50.25 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 131.71 yuan/head [82] - **Processing Profit**: As of July 3, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. As of July 4, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 540 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 384 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan/ton [86] Corn Starch Supply - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [90] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week. As of July 2, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.313 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.31%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.83% [94] 4. Option Market Analysis As of July 4, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous week's 9.85%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]

Report Title - Bio - diesel Policy Favorable, US Soybean Oil Leads the Rise of Oils and Fats - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Internationally, the probability of abnormal weather for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy may be the key factor affecting the market. US soybeans may run within the range of 950 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the Dalian soybean meal market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing, with short - term low - level fluctuations. [136] - The oils and fats market: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies for biodiesel. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136] Section Summaries 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low level this week. The near - month contracts were pressured by the higher - than - expected quarterly inventory report at the end of June, while the far - month contracts were supported by the slightly lower - than - expected planting area report. The US Senate's new tax bill and Trump's speech also affected the market. The main contract of US soybeans fluctuated between 950 - 1100 cents. Dalian soybean meal oscillated higher at a low level, with a weaker increase than US soybeans. [6] 1.2 US Soybean Export - The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 11% from the previous week but decreased by 30% year - on - year. As of June 26, 2025, the export inspection volume was 224,787 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,851,787 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and 91.1% of the revised export target has been achieved. [12] 1.3 North American Weather - In the US, there were active weather conditions in many areas, with heavy rainfall in some parts and drought in others. There were also wildfires in the west. In Canada, the rainfall in the prairies was generally low, and some areas in Saskatchewan experienced drought. [24][30] 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - The US soybean inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. Argentina restored the original tax rates for soybeans and other crops. The EU's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, while sunflower seed production is expected to decrease. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to reach a record high of 168.75 million tons. [35][36][37] 1.5 Trade Pattern Changes - Italy will increase imports of US soybeans. Trump is rumored to reveal the progress of the trade agreement with China, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. [39] 1.6 Domestic Soybean Situation - The domestic spot and futures crushing margins of soybeans have declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 5.988 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons next weekend. The cost of imported soybeans from the US Gulf for September shipment is 4,620 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3,917 yuan/ton. [45][48] 1.7 Soybean Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the average soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills was 67.05%, a decrease of 4.44% from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal was 751,000 tons, an increase of 217,000 tons from the previous week. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 26th week was 1.7513 million tons, a decrease from the previous week. [53][57] 1.8 Rapeseed Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the weekly opening rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 13.82%, a 0.73% increase from the previous week. The inventory of imported crushed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. [63] 2. Oils and Fats Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils and fats oscillated higher this week, with US soybean oil rising significantly due to the favorable policy for biodiesel. Malaysian palm oil also rose, and domestic oils and fats followed the trend. Dalian palm oil led the rise, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil oscillated strongly, and Dalian soybean oil rose and then fell. [70] 2.2 International Oils and Fats Information - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in June, with different performance for different varieties. Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil in July. Indian importers cancelled some palm oil import orders. The US Senate's new tax bill is favorable for US soybeans and corn growers. The production of South Malaysian palm oil decreased in June. [74][75][76][77][78] 2.3 Domestic Oils and Fats Situation - As of the end of the 26th week in 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4565 million tons, a weekly increase of 188,100 tons. The inventory of soybean oil was 1.0609 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons; the inventory of edible palm oil was 511,500 tons, an increase of 113,400 tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 884,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. [93] 2.4 Arbitrage Relationships - This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds decreased slightly, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil decreased significantly, while the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly. [113][117][119] 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bearish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all entangled. For soybean oil, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all bullish. For rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. [135] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the probability of weather speculation for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy is the key factor. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing. - Oils and fats: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136]

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a continued decrease in the area affected by drought for U.S. soybeans, currently at historically low levels, which may impact soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought is decreasing [1] - Current drought-affected areas are at historically low levels for this time of year [1] - Potential implications for soybean prices due to these drought conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fresh corn harvesting season in Dou Dian Village, Fangshan District, Beijing, has begun, showcasing a successful agricultural transformation that integrates production, packaging, and sales, leading to increased income for local farmers [1][4][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Practices - Dou Dian Village has adopted ecological principles in fresh corn cultivation, utilizing biological pest control and organic fertilizers instead of chemical fertilizers [5]. - The corn variety "Nongke Guo 336," recognized as one of the top ten sweet and glutinous corn varieties in China, is a key product for the village [4][5]. - Expert guidance from agricultural scientists has improved planting techniques, resulting in an expected increase of nearly 500 ears of corn per acre compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: Sales and Distribution - The village has developed a complete fresh corn industry chain, allowing for online and offline sales across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and beyond [5]. - Fresh corn is harvested and delivered to consumers within half a day, ensuring maximum freshness [4][5]. - The brand "Fresh Corn Dou" has been established, enhancing the economic value of the corn and doubling sales revenue compared to previous years [5]. Group 3: Community Impact - The fresh corn industry has created job opportunities for local residents, with half of the workers in the second farm being from Dou Dian Village [5]. - The successful branding and sales of fresh corn have garnered consumer recognition and positive feedback, contributing to the village's economic development [5][6].

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, but the yield per hectare has been revised downwards, raising questions about the adequacy of global soybean supply pricing [1] Group 1: Production and Yield - Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise, indicating a potential increase in global supply [1] - However, the yield per hectare has been adjusted downward, suggesting that the increase in total production may not be as significant as initially anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential oversupply of soybeans globally raises concerns about whether the current pricing adequately reflects this surplus [1]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]