Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.37%, while the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index fell by 0.46%, closing at 1237.37 points with a trading volume of 20.049 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index has increased by 6.04% over the past month and 6.76% over the past three months, but has declined by 1.59% year-to-date [2] - The index series reflects the performance of listed companies influenced by changes in economic and consumption structures, focusing on themes such as intensive, intelligent, and green low-carbon development [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index include China State Construction (9.44%), China Railway (6.99%), and Poly Development (6.86%) [2] - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with the industrial sector accounting for 57.81%, real estate for 31.30%, and materials for 10.90% [3] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]

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Market Overview - The market experienced a consolidation phase this week (July 28 - August 1, 2025), with fundamental factors continuing to exert pressure, yet providing space for a stronger rebound in the future [1] - A significant increase in trading volume was noted, with total transactions exceeding 9 trillion yuan and an average daily turnover of over 1.8 trillion yuan [1] - Major A-share indices showed an overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling by 0.93%, 1.58%, and 0.74% respectively [1] ETF Performance - Growth sectors performed well, particularly in communications, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, driven by favorable export conditions and positive Q2 earnings reports [1][2] - The average decline for all market ETFs was -1.17%, while bond ETFs showed resilience, increasing by 0.13% [1] - Top-performing ETFs included Communication ETF (515880) with a rise of 5.64%, and Innovation Drug ETF (517120) with a 4.56% increase, benefiting from the World Artificial Intelligence Conference and favorable pharmaceutical export news [2] Sector Analysis - The construction-related ETFs experienced a pullback after previous strong performance, with sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and construction decoration showing signs of volatility [4] - Analysts noted that the current low price-to-book ratios in sectors such as transportation, construction decoration, and coal indicate potential for valuation recovery, supported by significant infrastructure investment planned for the second half of the year [6] Fund Flow Trends - After three consecutive weeks of net inflows, the ETF market saw a cooling period with a net outflow of 2.932 billion yuan, although market activity remained high [7] - Cross-border ETFs stood out with an inflow of 23.24 billion yuan, while bond and commodity ETFs also attracted varying degrees of inflow [7][9] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Cloud Computing Industry ETF, which aims to track cloud computing service companies [12] - The new ETFs reflect the growing importance of cloud computing in the AI era, as highlighted in the recent Cloud Computing Blue Book [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market has limited downside space. After sufficient adjustment, the stock index will continue to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index has strong support below 3550 points, and the short - term decline does not hinder the medium - term optimism [11][13]. - The government's fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support the economy. The release of policy effects and the improvement of corporate profitability will drive the upward movement of the stock market [11][13]. - There are investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially in the AI field, covering computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. - The inflow of various funds, including domestic and foreign funds, into the stock market will provide impetus for the rise of the stock market [11][24][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 3500 points, and the wealth effect spread. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods has been fully allocated, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated in October [8][11][13]. - As of July 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 1.0008 trillion yuan, hitting a new high since July 8, 2015, and the total margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.962 trillion yuan [13]. - The decline in the second half of the week was due to some funds believing that the Politburo meeting's policies were lower than expected, but in fact, the economic situation in the first half of the year was better than expected, and policies after April were continuously strengthening [13]. - The decline of commodities at the end of July was a second - wave correction, and after the correction, the overall upward trend of commodities will improve the profitability of listed companies [13]. Economic Policy - On July 31, the Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, enhancing flexibility and predictability, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should maintain sufficient liquidity and promote the decline of comprehensive social financing costs [15]. - In the second half of the year, anti - involution is the focus, emphasizing the importance of the stock market, promoting the development of new quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimizing the market competition order [17]. Capital Flow - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 reached 4.6%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial to the upward movement of the stock market [21]. - In April and May, the new deposits of non - bank financial institutions exceeded 1 trillion yuan each month, indicating the transfer of funds to the stock market [24]. - The margin trading balance continued to hit new highs in July, and the financing funds accelerated to enter the market. The margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, hitting a 10 - year high [27]. - Funds in the bond market continued to flow into the stock market, and bond funds suffered large - scale redemptions [30]. Foreign Investment Views - Sovereign wealth funds and global family offices have a continuous increase in investment interest in China. 59% of sovereign wealth funds surveyed by Invesco listed China as a high - or medium - priority target, up from 44% last year. 19% of global family offices plan to increase their allocation of assets in this region, 3 percentage points higher than in 2024 [33]. - BlackRock is optimistic about the investment in China's technology sector, especially in the AI field, which covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. Economic Data - In June, China's export value reached 325.1 billion US dollars, a new high in half a year, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8% [37]. - In June, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3.75 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [40]. - In June, the fixed - asset investment in manufacturing reached 3.92 trillion yuan, a record high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% [43]. - In June, infrastructure investment reached 3.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [46]. - In June, the new housing start - up area and the commercial housing sales area began to pick up, and the new start - up area reached a new high in a year [49]. - In June, the output of industrial robots reached 74,700 units, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 40.8% [52]. - In June, the output of integrated circuits reached 45 billion pieces, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 24.4%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [55]. - In June, the export volume of Chinese electric vehicles reached 281,000 units, remaining at a high level [57]. US Economic Data - In June, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The retail and food sales in June were 720.1 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong US consumption [60][62]. - In May, the US capital goods import value was 90.9 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [65]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [68]. - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 1.4%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [73]. Strategy Suggestions - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Technology ETF benefits from the re - allocation of global financial assets [80]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed out on June 4, rose sharply in July, and entered the second - wave correction after peaking on July 25. It is expected to enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [82]. - The decline space of the Shanghai Composite Index is limited, and there is strong support below 3550 points. After technical adjustment, A - shares will continue to rise. Be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [85]. - Due to the impact of quantitative funds' hedging, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index 2512 contracts still have a relatively deep discount. In the case of limited downside risk, the discount income can be earned [88]. - The decline space is limited. Be bullish on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options of stock index options [91].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 正文 2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 前期回顾和当下形势判断：会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，表示"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产 力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"；同时也明确了目前我国 面临的风险和挑战，"要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"，说明对经济现状认识 到位，中央支持政策仍有充实空间。 各个方向政策如何定调？ 此外，本次会议针对外贸和当前宏观环境提出，要求"稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化 出口退税政策"，因此在上半年中美关税摩擦以及持续到当前的博弈下，我国目前出口增速仍能保持正增长，预计后续关税影响对实体企业的影响在政策 支持对冲下可能边际削弱。 科技创新引领新质生产力发展，依法依规治理企业无序竞争。会议仍然将科技创新放在第二重要位置。在当下经 ...

Group 1 - Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1, indicating a seasonal slowdown slightly greater than historical averages [4][6] - The decline in orders was slightly greater than production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply, with new orders index at 49.4 and production index at 50.5 [6][7][8] - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with raw material purchase price index rising by 3.1 points and factory price index rising by 2.1 points, indicating effective transmission from upstream to downstream [8][9] Group 2 - Business activity expectations reached a four-month high, with the PMI production activity expectation index at 52.6, suggesting a positive impact of price elasticity on business expectations as long as the contraction in quantity is manageable [11] - The construction industry showed a month-on-month decline, attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales, with construction PMI at 50.6 and new orders index at 42.7 [12][13] - The Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 1.6 points to 47.7, reflecting a distribution of "declining sales, rising profits" consistent with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [13][14] Group 3 - The EPMI, PMI, and BCI all pointed in the same direction, indicating a need to adjust investment strategies to focus on areas benefiting from nominal GDP improvement and structural policy cues [18]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, indicating a seasonal slowdown that is slightly more pronounced than in previous years. The decline in orders is greater than that in production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply [1][4][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.3, down from 49.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1, down from 50.5. The historical average for July over the past 5 and 10 years was -0.3 and -0.2 respectively, indicating this year's decline is slightly above seasonal norms [5][4]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4, lower than the previous 50.2, and the new export orders index was 47.1, down from 47.7 [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The slowdown in orders is attributed to several factors: a decrease in durable goods demand, with automotive retail sales dropping 19% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year; a decline in real estate sales, with a 21.2% year-on-year drop in transactions across 30 cities; and a potential contraction in production activities in some industrial sectors due to rising "anti-involution" sentiments [1][5]. Group 3: Price Indicators - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with the raw material purchase price index and factory price index rising by 3.1 and 2.1 points respectively. This suggests that the "anti-involution" policy is starting to take effect and that there is some effective transmission from upstream to downstream [2][7][8]. - The production activity expectation index for July reached its highest level in four months at 52.6, indicating a positive correlation with nominal GDP as long as the contraction in quantity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction sector showed a decline, with the construction PMI at 50.6, down from 52.8. This decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales and fiscal spending on infrastructure [9][10]. - The new orders index for construction was 42.7, down from 44.9, indicating a weakening in demand within the sector [11]. Group 5: Business Confidence Index (BCI) - The BCI fell by 1.6 points from June, with a current value of 47.7. The index reflects a trend of "sales declining, profits rising," which aligns with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [12][13]. - The forward-looking indices for consumer goods and intermediate goods prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that while short-term prices may rebound, the medium-term expectations for price increases are not yet solidified [12][15].

次会议继续将稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期作为下一阶段经济工作的着力点，要求"宏观政策要持 续发力、适时加力"。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 此次会议继续将稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期作为下一阶段经济工作的着力点，要求"宏观政策要 持续发力、适时加力"，"努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现'十四五'圆满收官"。 一、确定四中全会议程 此次政治局会议确定了二十届四中全会的时间和议程。 时间是今年10月份，主要议程是中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。"十五五"时期既 是落实三中全会改革举措，推动改革攻坚克难的关键时期，也是实现2035年远景目标、承上启下的关键 五年。 政治局会议为"十五五"确定了两个重要目标，一是"推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突 破"，二是"确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展"。随着政策节奏进入四中全会时段，制定"十 五五"规划也将成为下半年的重点工作之一。 二、形势研判 会议肯定了今 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is driving significant inflows into cyclical theme ETFs, with notable net inflows of over 18 billion yuan for Penghua Chemical ETF, 14 billion yuan for Guotai Steel ETF, and 13 billion yuan for GF Infrastructure 50 ETF from July 21 to July 29 [1][4] - The performance of cyclical theme ETFs has been outstanding, with rare earth ETFs and rare metals ETFs returning 42% and 36% year-to-date, respectively, leading the industry theme ETFs [1][3] - The recent market performance indicates a structural market shift, with traditional industries like coal and steel, as well as emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [1][7] Group 2 - Major industry indices such as steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with the steel index rising by 20.39% and the building materials index by 14.46% over the past month [2] - Several ETFs, including rare earth ETFs and steel ETFs, have shown impressive returns, with some rare earth ETFs exceeding 25% returns in the last month [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and is expected to create a long-term mechanism for enterprise transformation, moving away from simple administrative interventions [5][6] Group 3 - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" market trend is still under observation, with analysts suggesting that if demand-side policies are insufficient, the current trend may only represent a temporary rebound [7] - The market performance will vary across sectors, with traditional industries like steel and coal having clearer capacity constraints, while emerging sectors like photovoltaics will need to demonstrate technological advancements [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in cyclical stocks at the bottom of their cycles, particularly in steel and cement, as well as in leading companies in chemical, non-ferrous, and machinery sectors that can benefit from improved industry dynamics [9][10]

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵司是否涉及工程咨询服务及基建能力？ 苏州高新（600736.SH）7月30日在投资者互动平台表示，公司不涉及相关业务。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...