（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中金公司认为，随着碳排放管控严格下化工行业新上产能难度增加，化工行业产能增速将迎来下降，中 长期看化工行业景气好转趋势确定。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%，能够分享下游化工品的利润修 复。伴随行业格局优化和供需结构调整，行业中长期叙事改善。 截至2月6日13:35，石化ETF（159731）涨2.32%，持仓股浙江龙盛、华峰化学、荣盛石化涨幅居前。从 资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计14.37亿元，资金抢筹特征显 著。 消息面上，2022至2025年欧洲合计关停化工产能3700万吨，合计产能占欧洲化工总产能约9%；同时欧 洲化工行业投资呈现明显的减速趋势。2026年，欧盟密集出台的气候与循环经济新规令本就深陷困境的 欧洲化工行业更添压力，直接推升合规成本、削弱竞争力，使行业陷入减排目标与经济发展的两难中。 ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华福证券指出，化工行业2025年经历了盈利与估值的探底，2026年盈利有望触底回升。一方面供给 侧的反内卷政策正在重塑竞争格局，另一方面以AI算力、人形机器人等新质生产力将引领新一轮成 长。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和 石油石化双轮驱动，同时涵盖高股息和高成长资产，储能电池、机器人、商业航天等新兴赛道的发展与 石化行业中化工材料的创新发展高度绑定，伴随政策红利释放和供需结构优化，行业中长期叙事改善。 2月6日，化工开盘走低，随后快速拉升，氟化工、农化制品、分散染料等概念表现强势，中证石化 产业指数强势上涨超2.2%，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）跟随指数上行，近20个交易日 资金净流入超14.37亿元，资金抢筹特征显著。 巴斯 ...

瑞银表示，全球化工行业盈利低迷背景下，海外高成本产能加速退出。当前中国化工行业1.5倍的P/BV 估值处于过去20年43%分位，主动权益基金对化工板块的超配比例在2025年Q4触底回升，处于10年低 位。历史数据显示，当PPI同比转正时，化工板块多实现超额收益，而瑞银宏观团队预测2026年末至 2027年初PPI将重回正增长通道，行业配置价值凸显。 截至2月6日10:50，中证石化产业指数强势上涨2.18%，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）上涨 2.02%，石化ETF近20个交易日资金净流入超14.37亿元，资金抢筹特征显著。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和石油 石化双轮驱动，同时涵盖高股息和高成长资产，权重股包括万华化学（全球MDI龙头）、中国石油（国 内油气龙头）、中国石化（国内炼化龙头）、盐湖股份（国内钾肥龙头）等。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 6, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index opening low and rising over 2.6% during the day, led by stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng, Huafeng Chemical, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The largest ETF tracking the index, Petrochemical ETF (159731), saw a net inflow of over 1.437 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, with the latest share count reaching 1.713 billion and total assets at 1.697 billion yuan [1] - GF Securities noted that the chemical industry typically follows a five-year cyclical pattern, transitioning through phases of "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement" [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the chemical sector in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by factors such as negative capital expenditure growth, anti-involution, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion [1] - The ongoing global technological revolution is accelerating, presenting new opportunities for material transformation within the chemical industry [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43% of the index [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a 0.71% increase, with significant inflows of 1.437 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, bringing its total shares to 1.713 billion and total scale to 1.697 billion yuan [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics of phosphate rock in China are tightening due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, while demand from new fields such as lithium iron phosphate continues to grow, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for phosphate prices [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, phosphate rock is essential for the phosphate chemical industry, primarily driven by agricultural products, and its scarcity is becoming more pronounced with the expansion of new applications in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, allowing for profit sharing from downstream chemical products [2] - The industry narrative is improving due to structural adjustments in supply and demand, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the chemical sector [2]

Market Overview - The spring market has experienced a pause with significant corrections in gold and silver prices, leading to a wide fluctuation in global markets. However, the market quickly stabilized after the initial downturn, with COMEX gold recovering to 5000 points and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4100 points [1][13]. - Affected by overseas uncertainties, A-shares saw a substantial adjustment but rebounded on February 3, demonstrating strong market resilience [2][13]. Long-term Opportunities - The new productive forces are becoming the engine for economic growth, with an increasing share of "new economy" stocks in the market. AI is expected to see application results this year, alongside sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and energy storage entering a favorable cycle [3][14]. - A-shares are attractive in terms of valuation compared to major global markets, with low foreign capital positions and the establishment of mechanisms for long-term domestic funds entering the market. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents may continue in a low-interest-rate environment [3][14][15]. - Policy emphasis on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption is expected to translate into systematic improvements in corporate profitability. Following the Spring Festival, policy catalysts are anticipated to accelerate, potentially leading to better index performance post-holiday [15]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on cyclical price increases, with sectors like oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors continuing to see positive trends. The construction materials sector may benefit from major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to industry leaders, as well as a tech + dividend "barbell" strategy as a satellite approach [4][15]. Commodity Market Insights - The gold market has faced its largest drawdown in 40 years but has quickly rebounded, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet. Historical context suggests that significant narrative shifts are required to signal the end of a bull market [5][16]. - From a macro perspective, a super cycle in commodities is anticipated this year, with fundamental factors driving long-term trends. The black and chemical sectors, currently at relatively low levels, may offer better value post-adjustment [8][17]. Investment Strategies - For investors concerned about market volatility, "fixed income plus" products are recommended. These strategies focus on safety and stability while allowing for some equity exposure to capture market gains [19][20]. - An example is the Guotai Helix 6-month holding mixed fund, which combines high-grade credit bonds for the fixed income portion and a flexible allocation to equities, aiming for a balanced approach to risk and return [20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance and increasing popularity of the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), which has reached record highs in both scale and shares since its inception [1][2] - As of February 4, the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has a total scale of 1.631 billion yuan and 1.493 billion shares, marking a significant milestone [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 14 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 391 million yuan, totaling 1.4 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2 - The ETF tracks major players in the petrochemical and basic chemical industries, including the three major oil companies and Wanhua Chemical, employing a "dumbbell strategy" in its index composition [2] - The ETF has outperformed comparable chemical industry indices in terms of returns since the beginning of 2023 [2] - The management and custody fee rates for the ETF are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, respectively, which are significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, providing a cost-effective investment option [2]

【市场复盘】 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 3.上一个交易日杭州PP市场报盘部分货少资源拉涨，下游订单跟进放缓，商家谨慎高报适当让利出货， 实盘成交可商谈。截至午盘，拉丝主流价格6600-6700元/吨。另一方面余姚市场LLDPE价格下跌20-50 元/吨，去库节奏下，商家继续低出，低价成交尚可。 【机构观点】 光大证券预测，2026年"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下游炼化业 务转型，有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成长。油服方面，国内高额上游资本开支投入将有力保障上游产 储量的增长，使得油服企业充分受益，叠加海外业务逐渐进入业绩释放期，主要油服企业经营质量明显 上升，在油价下跌的同时业绩逆势上行。 【热门ETF】 截至2026年2月4日15:00，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.41%，成分股中国石化上涨3.17%，三棵树 上 ...

- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" model was constructed using a two-step screening method: first selecting brokers and then selecting stocks[35][39] - The model identifies top-performing brokers by standardizing excess Sharpe ratios and monthly win rates, then combines them into a composite score[39] - The portfolio is built by equally distributing funds among the top 10 brokers and selecting the top 20 stocks based on weight, which are then equally weighted[39] - The benchmark index for the portfolio is the Hang Seng Index (HSI.HI)[40] Model Performance - January 2026 portfolio return: 6.32%, Hang Seng Index return: 6.85%, excess return: -0.53%[41] - Full period (2020.1–2026.1) excess annualized return: 19.3%, excess Sharpe ratio: 2.45[41] - Annualized excess returns by year: 2020: 30.9%, 2021: 12.0%, 2022: 11.9%, 2023: 22.5%, 2024: 23.2%, 2025: 18.6%, 2026 YTD: -6.2%[42] - Maximum drawdown during the full period: -7.6%[42] - Monthly win rate during the full period: 75.3%[42]

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年02月04日 | 固 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 定 | | | | | | | | [T分ab析le师_Author] | 张河生 | : | 收 | Tel: | 021-53686158 | 益 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 周 | 编号: | SAC | S0870523100004 | 报 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] | 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好 | | | | | | | 高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 30 | | 《结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 21 | | 《投资者风险偏好高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 13 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险 ...