上证报中国证券网讯 9月1日，A股三大股指集体高开，沪指高开0.31%，深成指高开0.61%，创业板指 高开0.85%。贵金属、半导体、通信设备等板块涨幅居前。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（8月29日）大幅收涨，开盘价3410.91美元/盎司，最高价3447.63美元/盎司，最低价3404.24美元/ 盎司，收盘价3445.48美元/盎司。 消息面： 当地时间29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定，美国总统特朗普实施的大部分全球关税措施非法。《国际紧急经 济权力法》并未明确赋予美国总统加征关税的权力，特朗普援引该法加征关税超越了其职权范围。法院表示， 这些加征关税措施可以维持到10月14日，以便美国政府向最高法院上诉。另据路透社报道，法院的这一裁决并 不影响特朗普政府根据其他规定而加征的关税，比如加征的钢铝关税。美国总统特朗普当天通过社交媒体批评 上诉法院裁决，称其"错误"地要求取消关税，并强调现有关税仍在生效。 地缘局势： 美国7月个人支出月率录得0.5%，符合市场预期，前值为0.3%；美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，符合 市场预期，前值为2.8%；美国7月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合市场预期，前值为0.3%。 分析称，美国7月消费者支出稳健增长，同时由于进口关税推高部分商品价格，核心PCE出现升温。但在劳动 力市场条件趋软的背景下，这些数据可能不会 ...

资源股迎接"戴维斯双击"时刻 20250831 摘要 Q&A 黄金股在 2024 年和 2025 年的表现如何？未来的走势预测是什么？ 商品价格在牛熊转换中表现强劲，黄金价格从 2022 年底至 2025 年最 高点涨幅达 107%，铜价同期涨幅达 42.4%，显示出商品市场的增长潜 力。 美联储预计 9 月降息将推动流动性宽松，利好商品价格，可能引发通胀 再起，提升贵金属和工业金属的抗通胀属性，短期内商品价格预计将继 续上涨。 资源股板块具备戴维斯双击条件，即 EPS 和 PE 双双修正。贵金属板块 历史 PE 有望降至 15 倍以内，若 EPS 继续上行，将进一步压缩估值空间。 央行购金是黄金价格上涨的重要动因，过去三年平均购金量远超 2008- 2022 年间水平，而高风险资金未大量流入黄金板块。 铜板块 PE TTM 约为 16.5 倍，不高。降息将提升需求，若海外风险不 明显，铜价上行动能较强，板块估值将进一步下行。 大宗商品价格上涨使资源公司财务状况良好修正，如洛钼公司自由现金 流充裕，资产负债率下降，具备进可攻退可守状态，估值重塑值得关注。 商品市场中期内预计保持高位震荡，铝企业若海外产能不大幅 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is entering a phase of slow bull market, with a higher probability of market fluctuations after a period of rapid growth [2][5][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, up 14.33 points, with a trading volume of 12.22 billion [6][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index reached new highs for the year, indicating strong market momentum [2][6] Sector Analysis Battery Sector - The battery sector saw significant gains, driven by strong performance in lithium battery-related stocks, with a focus on solid-state batteries and new energy vehicles [8][9] - The global push for carbon neutrality continues to drive demand for lithium, photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage [9] Alcohol Sector - The alcohol sector is benefiting from domestic consumption recovery, with policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending [9][10] - The report highlights the potential of the "silver economy" and "self-consumption" trends among younger consumers [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is experiencing upward momentum due to expectations of interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions [10] - Factors such as central bank gold purchases and a weaker dollar are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [10] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains a long-term investment opportunity, supported by national policies and increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution trends and the potential for growth in the semiconductor industry [11] Communication Equipment Sector - The communication equipment sector is poised for growth with advancements in 5G and upcoming 6G technologies [12] - The integration of AI with communication technologies is expected to enhance data transmission efficiency [12] Optical Communication Modules - The optical communication module sector is likely to remain in a high prosperity cycle, driven by AI computing and data center upgrades [13][14] Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth sector is expected to see strategic value due to supply constraints and increasing demand [14] - Recent regulatory measures are likely to impact the supply dynamics of rare earth materials [14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests dynamic optimization of holdings, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support and good technical patterns [3][16] - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [3][16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with key indices showing positive movements, particularly in sectors like chips, solid-state batteries, and digital currencies, while other sectors like military and finance are underperforming [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.57%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.23% [1]. - Chip stocks continued to perform strongly, with companies like Tailin Micro and Liyang Chip hitting the daily limit, and others like Huahong Semiconductor and Allwinner Technology rising over 10% [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to招商证券, the market is likely to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, driven by the accumulation of profit effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds [3]. - 中信证券 suggests focusing on four key areas for investment in September: resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and military sectors, highlighting the potential for precious metals and copper due to a possible Fed rate cut [4]. - 东方证券 indicates that the market structure is showing significant differentiation, with technology stocks leading the market, and anticipates a continued oscillating upward trend for major indices, although the upward space may be limited [5].

在此背景下，华尔街齐声看好金价行情。 近期美联储的讲话及美国经济数据不断强化美联储9月的降息预期，为金价的上涨提供支撑。另外，特朗普与美联储官员的争端也进一步驱使避险资金从 美元转向黄金，从而推升金价。 据最新的CME"美联储观察"数据：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.6%，降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，累计 降息25个基点的概率为45.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为48.6%。 9月1日，国际现货黄金高开，一度向上触及3450美元/盎司。 在上周Kitco新闻的周度黄金调查中，华尔街分析师展现出空前的乐观态度，14位参与者中86%预计下周金价将继续上涨，无一人看跌，剩余14%认为将横 盘整理。 过去几天， 金价持续上涨，国际现货黄金价格在一周内涨超80美元/盎司，创下近四个月新高，日线录得四连阳，再度成为全球投资者瞩目的焦点。 资产策略国际公司总裁里奇·切坎觉得黄金还会上涨，其认为市场对美联储9月降息超过87%的预期将推动金价续升，尤其在突破3400美元后，尽管可能有 获利回吐，但特朗普与美联储官员的争端将进一步驱使资金从美元转向黄金作为避险资产。 | ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, emphasizing the potential for a rebound in precious metals. The A-share bull market does not necessarily imply that gold will underperform, as the focus remains on the gold price itself. Three catalysts have driven the gold price breakout: 1) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising to nearly 90%; 2) Renewed geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade concerns due to Trump's 50% tariff on India; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, highlighting the potential for a rebound in the precious metals sector. The report suggests that the second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly-level resonance in gold stocks across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The report recommends increasing allocations to gold stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [6][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are in the early stages of a cyclical reversal, with copper and aluminum leading the way. The recent rebound in industrial metals is attributed to enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. The report notes that copper inventories have decreased, while aluminum inventories have increased. It anticipates that copper and aluminum demand may decline in the second half of the year, but supply elasticity will limit the extent of deterioration. The report suggests that copper and aluminum equities may outperform as the cycle reverses [7][6]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report highlights the strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, as they are expected to undergo a value reassessment. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to recover due to improved orders and government policies emphasizing resource control. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as they are likely to benefit from these trends [8][6].

以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 关税反复，流动性行情或持续；报告日期：2025.08.31 报告作者： 于嘉懿（分析师），登记编号：S0880522080001 兰洋（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070028 报告导读： 近日美国联邦上诉法院裁定特朗普关税为非法，关税博弈再度反复，鲍威尔在 JacksonHole 表态意外偏鸽后，中期维度降息确定性增强，内外流动性仍在共振过程中， 随着旺季临近，工业品、贵金属有望继续表现。 周期研判： 近期美国联邦上诉法院裁定特朗普的全球关税为"非法"，关税博弈再度面临反复，但关税目前还将继续执行到10月中旬，该案件接下来将提交最 高法院作出最终裁决，预计关税博弈还有反复空间。此前鲍威尔在JacksonHole会议表态意外偏鸽后，叠加政治性&政治压力，中期维度美联储降息的确定性 仍较强，考虑国内货币环境偏松，内外流动性共振或持续，贵金属短期受关税反复或有震荡，但或有继续修复机会。国内方面，临近工业品需求旺季，加工企 业开工率有所回升，考虑库存水平偏低，金融属性/商品属性共振仍可期待。 贵金属：关税反复，降息预期提振金价或持续。 近期美国联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].