Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on September 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.70% to 26,159.12, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.45% to 6,167.06, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.86% to 9,290.34 [3][6][10] - The market's total trading volume reached HKD 294.56 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 4.069 billion [3][10] - The industrial sector saw a notable shift, with the Hong Kong banking sector (+0.77%) and public utilities (+0.25%) gaining favor, while hardware equipment (-1.84%) and food and beverage (-1.94%) sectors faced declines [6][10] Industry Analysis - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlighted new industrial opportunities at the 25th China International Industry Fair, which positively impacted the Hong Kong machinery sector, leading to a strong performance [10] - A significant rotation in market preferences was observed, with defensive sectors like banking and public utilities attracting investment, while previously high-performing sectors like hardware equipment faced profit-taking [10] - Future growth in the Hong Kong market may be driven by AI technology and new consumption trends, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and improved liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that M1 has shown a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points from September 2024 to June 2025, which correlates with a 9 percentage point increase in non-financial corporate cash flow, suggesting a new cash flow cycle for enterprises has begun [1][7][10] - Non-financial operating cash flow saw a notable year-on-year increase of nearly 1 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, marking it as the primary positive contributor to the growth of cash and cash equivalents [7][10][17] - Historical cash flow cycles are referenced, indicating that the current improvements in operating cash flow, narrowing negative contributions from financing cash flow, and reduced negative contributions from investment cash flow align with the characteristics of the beginning of a new cash flow cycle [1][7][17] Group 2 - The overall improvement in non-financial operating cash flow is primarily attributed to reduced purchasing rather than increased sales, with a notable contraction in cash outflows for purchases, which is a rare occurrence historically [2][20][27] - Industries experiencing net inflow expansion due to downstream prosperity include automotive, machinery, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, while those benefiting from significant cost reductions include construction, transportation, real estate, utilities, and new energy [2][8][20] - Leading contributors to cash increment across the A-share market include construction (+1.4 percentage points), new energy (+1.3 percentage points), real estate (+1.0 percentage points), and electronics (+1.0 percentage points), while coal and food & beverage sectors showed negative contributions [3][8][17] Group 3 - The report highlights that the automotive and food & beverage sectors have shown healthy cash flow expansion, indicating improved cash collection and sales quality, which is crucial for maintaining cash flow health [35][36] - The construction and transportation sectors are noted for their significant net inflow expansions, driven by cost control and operational efficiency improvements [2][29] - The electronics sector has benefited from increased demand driven by AI and technological advancements, leading to improved operating cash flow and accelerated capital expenditures [3][8][35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of foreign capital inflow into A-shares has been a significant topic of discussion, indicating a growing interest from global investors in the Chinese stock market [2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflow Data - From May to the end of July, long-term stable foreign institutional funds accumulated inflows of approximately 67.7 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign institutional funds saw inflows of about 16.2 billion HKD [2]. - During the week of August 14-20, the net inflow of foreign capital for allocation reached a new high since 2025, totaling 6.98 billion CNY, with active allocation foreign capital turning to net inflow for the first time since mid-October 2024, amounting to 140 million CNY [2]. - In the first week of September 2025, foreign capital net inflow into the Chinese mainland market was approximately 5.5 billion USD, with stock funds contributing 5.02 billion USD, primarily from passive funds [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Preferences - Foreign capital tends to favor industries with global competitive advantages and strong growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the Nvidia supply chain, and renewable energy [4]. - Since July, foreign capital has shown a significant preference for sectors like technology, healthcare, and materials, particularly focusing on companies within the AI industry due to their clear technological advancements and profit growth expectations [4]. - The preference for core assets with local market characteristics is evident, with foreign capital increasing allocations in sectors like automotive, banking, and electronics in A-shares, while favoring software and services in Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics of Foreign Investment - The structural characteristics of foreign capital allocation in A-shares are focused on high-growth technology, high-dividend assets, and high-end manufacturing [4]. - Foreign investors have shown a preference for stocks with strong fundamentals, as indicated by the higher return on equity (ROE) of foreign-held stocks in A-shares (17.2%) compared to the overall market [5]. - The trend of foreign capital favoring stocks with lower AH premium suggests a strategic approach to maximize returns while minimizing risks associated with market fluctuations [5].

Core Insights - Vietnam's total exports to the United States reached $99.05 billion by the end of August, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, solidifying the U.S. as Vietnam's largest export market [1] Export Performance - The top ten exported goods to the U.S. include: - Computers, electronic products, and accessories: $26.1 billion, up 67.7% year-on-year [1] - Machinery, equipment, tools, and accessories: $15.19 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year [1] - Textiles: $12.07 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [1] - Mobile phones and accessories: $7.53 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year [1] - Wood and wood products: $6.2 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year [1] - Footwear: $6.07 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year [1] - Toys and sports equipment: $3.74 billion, up 228.1% year-on-year [1] - Plastic products: $2.45 billion, up 28.3% year-on-year [1] - Transport vehicles and accessories: $2.34 billion, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - Aquatic products: $1.24 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year [1]

Market Overview - The current bull market in A-shares began on September 24, 2024, and has lasted approximately one year, with significant performance improvements in the A-share market [1][2] - As of September 19, 2025, major A-share indices have seen substantial increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising about 39% and the ChiNext Index soaring approximately 102% [1][2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached approximately 104 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 36 trillion yuan over the past year [1][3] Policy Impact - The bull market is characterized as a "policy bull market" and a "confidence bull market," driven by a series of significant financial policies announced by the central government to support economic growth [1][2] - Key policies include promoting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, reforming public funds, and implementing measures to protect small investors [2] Index Performance - Major indices have shown remarkable performance since the "924" market, with the North China 50 Index increasing over 160% and several indices doubling in value [2][3] - Specific index performances include: - Shanghai Composite Index: +39% - Shenzhen Component Index: +61.7% - ChiNext Index: +102% - CSI 300 Index: +40% - Sci-Tech 50 Index: +112% - North China 50 Index: +163% [2][3] Stock Performance - Over 3,000 stocks have risen more than 50%, with over 1,400 stocks increasing by more than 100% [1][4] - A total of 5200 stocks have risen since the "924" market, with 229 stocks declining [5] - Notably, 424 stocks have increased by over 200%, and 35 stocks have surged by over 500% [5] Sector Performance - All 30 major industry sectors have experienced gains, with the top five sectors being: - Communication: +120% - Electronics: +108% - Computer: +99% - Media: +88% - Machinery: +76% [5] - The bottom five sectors include coal, oil and gas, electricity, transportation, and food and beverage, with increases ranging from 6% to 24% [5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market still has potential for further growth, despite recent adjustments due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes [8][9] - The market is expected to undergo structural shifts in the fourth quarter, with potential opportunities in cyclical sectors and low-position technology branches [9]

Core Insights - The visit of Vietnam's National Assembly Chairman, Vuong Dinh Hue, to Malaysia during the 46th ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA-46) signifies a commitment to strengthen the friendly relations and comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries [1] Trade Relations - Malaysia is Vietnam's third-largest trading partner within ASEAN and the ninth-largest globally [1] - As of July 2025, the bilateral trade volume between Vietnam and Malaysia reached $9.23 billion, reflecting an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Vietnam primarily exports computers, electronic products and components, oil, coffee, pepper, steel products, and rubber to Malaysia [1] - The main imports from Malaysia include computers and components, oil, and machinery [1] Investment Landscape - Malaysia ranks as the third-largest investor in Vietnam within ASEAN and tenth among all countries and regions investing in Vietnam, with 731 effective investment projects and a total registered capital of approximately $13 billion [1]

国金证券：真正的牛市还未开始 国金证券认为中国盈利基本面回升的牛市行情可能正在孕育。 目前， 降息后正在开启新的场景转换， 两类机会可以关注：一方面是流动性压制解除后， 6-8 月滞涨的港股或有补涨行情;另一方面，成长投 资会逐步从科技驱动走向出口出海。 制造业顺周期(有色，机械，化工)的机会将成为中期主线，准备好 换挡后进入真正的牛市。 A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.04%，创业板指涨1.02%。盘面上，贵金属、CPO、消费电子等板块涨 幅居前。 机构看后市 中信证券：下一波的线索 目前整体的行业选择框架依然是围绕资源+新质生产力+出海。资源股在供给受限以及全球地缘动荡的 预期推动下，从周期属性转向偏红利属性会带来估值体系重构，博弈美联储降息的资金退潮带来的波动 可以忽略。更大的中期线索还是中国制造业龙头的全球化，将份额优势转化为定价权和利润率提升，带 来超越本国经济基本面的市值增长，从而逐步打破行情与基本面背离且全靠流动性驱动的错误认知。 配置结构上，保持定力，右侧趋势品种继续聚焦资源、消费电子、创新药和游戏;左侧配置关注化工和 军工;产业趋势层面，近期重点关注AI从云侧逻辑开始向端侧逻辑扩散。 中期维 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - Consumer spending shows improvement, with automotive retail and high-end liquor prices rebounding due to seasonal effects[5] - Infrastructure special bond issuance is accelerating, while real estate sales are recovering, although land market activity is cooling[5] - Industrial production is generally declining, with power generation and steel industries adjusting due to demand and profit impacts[5] Federal Reserve and Global Market Trends - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations for two more cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy[6] - Major stock markets have generally risen, with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and emerging markets outperforming developed markets[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting market adjustments post-rate cut[6] Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - Market adjustments present opportunities, with a belief that the Chinese stock market will continue to rise, driven by a shift in asset demand and capital market reforms[8] - The consensus on economic expectations is cautiously optimistic, with signs of stabilization in corporate revenue and inventory growth[9] - Emerging technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, are expected to lead market performance, with recommendations for strategic allocations in these areas[10] Sector Performance and Recommendations - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted for its high dividend yield and attractive valuation compared to A-shares, with a cash dividend ratio of 44% versus 36% for A-shares[26] - The technology sector remains a focal point, with ongoing capital expenditure expansion and a favorable environment for innovation and growth[10] - Recommendations include increasing allocations in consumer sectors and traditional industries benefiting from economic recovery and policy support[10]

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in the fourth quarter, with increased volatility, following a strong performance in the third quarter led by technology stocks [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a structural recovery in earnings and continued credit repair, supported by a resilient export environment and steady growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][4][19] - Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a balanced style favoring both large and small-cap stocks [4][5] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a bull market with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading gains, driven by liquidity easing and improved risk appetite [10][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a low-level recovery in earnings, with potential inflows from foreign investment and new funds, although IPOs and sell-offs may increase [4][5] - The overall market valuation is currently neutral to high, with supportive policies likely to sustain risk appetite [4] Industry Allocation - Technology remains the main focus for investment in the fourth quarter, with significant opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, military industry, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [5][19] - The market style is expected to be balanced, with large-cap and small-cap stocks performing well during periods of structural recovery in earnings and credit [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in Q2 profitability, with a notable increase in revenue from semiconductor testing business [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution in semiconductor testing equipment, with a positive outlook for revenue growth in the coming years [9] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 649 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 116 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.1% [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.44 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.31 million yuan, down 19.94% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 36.05%, a decrease of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.90%, down 3.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.82 billion yuan, 2.75 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] Business Performance - The semiconductor testing equipment segment saw a substantial revenue increase of 376.52% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in the global storage and AI sectors [3] - The company has secured a significant contract worth 3.23 billion yuan for semiconductor testing equipment, which is expected to positively impact its performance in 2025 and 2026 [2][9] - The company is making progress in various product lines, including DRAM aging test repair equipment and MEMS probe cards, enhancing its position as a leading domestic equipment supplier [3][8]