Group 1 - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is implementing a regular visiting mechanism to support listed companies in the region, addressing their difficulties and suggestions to promote high-quality development [1] - Since 2024, the bureau and local government have visited over 60% of listed companies, with 13 companies visited this year across various industries including manufacturing, mining, finance, and information technology [1] - A total of 17 issues and suggestions have been collected from these visits, covering industrial policies, corporate financing, and operational challenges, with 7 issues already resolved and 10 ongoing [1] Group 2 - The bureau emphasizes policy promotion, guiding listed companies to leverage new policies for value management through mergers, buybacks, dividends, and equity incentives [2] - As of now, 33 listed companies in the region have announced cash dividend plans totaling 11.608 billion yuan, representing 82.5% of profitable companies; 11 companies have conducted stock buybacks amounting to 1.224 billion yuan [2] - The bureau plans to deepen regulatory collaboration with local government, focusing on enhancing regulatory services and optimizing corporate governance to foster a virtuous cycle of regulatory guidance, value enhancement, and economic empowerment [2]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][13][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][13][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value[1][13][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the stability of the overall employment data[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, a decline from the previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 previously, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19][22]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value after revision[1][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs in May, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the overall employment stability[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, contrasting with a previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in the previous month, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19]

点击图片查看完整路演回放↑↑↑ 6月4日，我们非常荣幸地邀请到了深圳市日斗投资管理有限公司的创始人、董事长王文先生做客私募排排网直播间， 王总深入剖析了当前资本 市场的关键趋势， 从人工智能产业的突破性进展，到港股市场的投资机会，再到消费行业的价值挖掘， 为我们带来了一场精彩纷呈的投资盛 宴。王总特别提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这一新颖比喻引发了广泛共鸣。以下小编整理出来的直播精华片段： （ 点击图片 查看完整直播回放 ） Q：王总，您近期提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这个比喻非常新颖，能否请您解释一下，什么是"DeepSeek崛起时刻"？ （ 点 击蓝字查看完整直播回放 ） 王文：今年春节期间，市场对贸易战的担忧情绪较为浓厚。与此同时，Deepseek公司的崛起改变了市场对中国人工智能产业的认知。此前普遍 认为中国人工智能技术与美国存在十年以上的差距，数字鸿沟难以逾越 。但Deepseek的出现证明中美技术差距远比预期要小，这显著增强了市 场对中国科技实力的信心。 从供给端观察，在A股IPO节奏调整的背景下，港股市场承接了大量内地优质企业的上市需求，为投资者提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US May non-farm payroll report is anticipated to reveal significant cooling in the labor market, as indicated by a series of concerning leading indicators, particularly the disappointing ADP employment data [1][3]. Employment Data - The ADP report for May showed only 37,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 114,000, marking the lowest figure since March 2023 and the largest deviation from expectations in nearly three years [1][3]. - Job losses were noted in the goods-producing sector, with a decrease of 2,000 positions, while the service sector saw a modest increase of 36,000 jobs, primarily driven by leisure and hospitality (+38,000) and finance (+20,000) [3]. - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) were particularly affected, losing 13,000 jobs, reflecting the direct impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on these vulnerable entities [3]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, exceeding expectations and reaching an eight-month high, with the four-week moving average also at its highest since November 2021, suggesting prolonged unemployment durations [4]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in May, indicating contraction in business activity for the first time since mid-2022, attributed to policy uncertainties affecting order delays [4]. Policy Uncertainty - Current policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs, are seen as a core factor contributing to the unclear economic outlook, with potential cost increases looming if negotiations fail [5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for understanding structural changes in employment, particularly in the goods-producing sector, small businesses, and temporary jobs [5]. Market Reactions - Market consensus for new non-farm jobs has dropped to 130,000 from a previous 177,000, with some institutions predicting as low as 125,000 [7]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, but a rise to 4.3% or higher could signal recession risks [7]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to slightly increase to 0.3%, raising concerns about a potential wage-inflation spiral due to high labor costs and declining productivity [7]. Short-term Volatility - The release of employment data is likely to cause significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, similar to the reactions following the ADP data release [8]. - Current interest rate futures reflect expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with increased bets on a September rate cut if unemployment rises significantly [8].

Report Title - Macro Weekly Report: Overseas Risk-Aversion Sentiment Intensifies, Domestic Weak Recovery Continues [1] Core Views - Overseas, there are signs of partial recovery in the US "soft data", with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising in May and inflation expectations falling from their highs. However, the manufacturing sector remains sluggish due to tariff disruptions, with the May ISM Manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months, weaker than expected, and the import sub-index hitting a 16-year low, while the price sub-index remains high. Overall, the US economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the GDPNow model has revised up its Q2 economic growth forecast to 4.6%. This week, attention is focused on the May non-farm payroll report and the services PMI. Last week, the US dollar index maintained a weak oscillation, and the gold price returned to a high level, reflecting three risks: internal conflicts in the US weakening its sovereign credit, setbacks in the US tariff negotiations with other countries, and renewed conflicts in war-torn countries. In June, attention is on the progress of Trump's tax cut bill in the Senate and the trade court's ruling on tariffs [2]. - Domestically, the manufacturing sector's sentiment improved slightly in May, with both supply and demand improving. The reduction in Sino-US tariffs has led to a marginal recovery in production driven by pre-export activities, and new orders have significantly improved due to external demand. However, price pressures remain, and the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue. In addition, the sentiment in the service and construction sectors remains lower than in previous years, indicating that domestic demand is still the main drag in the second quarter, and more policy support is urgently needed in the context of weak inflation. In June, attention is on the possibility of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [3] Section Summaries Overseas Macro - US May Manufacturing PMI Weakens: The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the "rush to import" may have ended. The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. New orders continued to shrink, external demand was under pressure, costs were high, and employment was weak. The import sub-index hit a 16-year low, suggesting that the peak of "rush to import" may have passed under tariff disruptions. The trade surplus has led the GDPNow to revise up the Q2 economic growth rate to 4.6%. Meanwhile, the final value of the US May Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, slightly lower than the expected 52.3 and the initial value of 52.3, still in the expansion range. The difference between the two may be due to the ISM PMI's high dependence on external demand, supply chains, and large manufacturers, making it more sensitive to policy shocks and external uncertainties [5]. - Consumer Confidence Recovers, Inflation Expectations Fall from Highs: After the easing of tariff negotiations, the US "soft data" has improved. The final value of the US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 52.2, higher than the expected 51.0 and the initial value of 50.8. With the significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs, consumer confidence has recovered, but the absolute level remains at a historical low, indicating that consumers are still highly concerned about the future economy. The final value of the one-year inflation expectation in May was 6.6%, lower than the expected 7.1% and the initial value of 7.3%; the final value of the 5 - 10-year inflation expectation was 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the initial value of 4.6%, ending four months of sharp increases [7]. Domestic Macro - China's May Manufacturing Sentiment Improves as Expected: The May Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 49.0. There were differences among enterprises of different sizes, with large enterprises rising 1.5 to 50.7, entering the expansion range, while medium and small enterprises remained in the contraction range. Both supply and demand improved, with external demand making a prominent contribution. Production rose 0.9 to 50.7, returning to the expansion range; new orders rose 0.6 to 49.8, approaching the boom-bust line; new export orders rose significantly by 2.8 to 47.5, showing obvious marginal improvement. Overall, with the phased easing of Sino-US tariff frictions, enterprises have seized the window period to accelerate production, and the release of export orders has driven the recovery of the production side. Prices were weak, and enterprises actively reduced inventory. The raw material inventory rose to 47.4, and the finished product inventory fell 0.8 to 46.5. In terms of prices, the purchase price of raw materials in April fell 0.1 to 46.9, and the ex-factory price fell 0.1 to 44.7, indicating that the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue [10]. - Construction and Service Sectors Remain Sluggish, Domestic Demand Recovery is Weak: In the non-manufacturing sector, the May Service PMI was 50.2, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.1 but lower than the level of previous years. Driven by the May Day holiday, tourism, travel, and catering consumption were active, and the sentiment in the transportation and accommodation industries rose to the expansion range; high - growth industries such as postal, communication, and the Internet continued to grow steadily. The Construction PMI was 51.0, lower than the previous value of 51.9 and at the lowest level in the same period over the years, with real estate construction remaining sluggish [11]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The performance of equity markets varied. In the A-share market, the Wind All - A Index was at 5074.29, with a weekly decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 2.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.04%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3347.49, with a weekly decline of -0.03%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.13%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index was at 23289.77, with a weekly decline of -1.32%, a monthly increase of 5.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.44%. Overseas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 42270.07, with a weekly increase of 1.60%, a monthly increase of 3.94%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.64% [19]. - Bonds: In the domestic bond market, the 1 - year Treasury yield was 1.46%, with a weekly increase of 1.51 basis points, a monthly increase of 0.08 basis points, and a year - to - date increase of 35.30 basis points. In the overseas bond market, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, with a weekly decline of 11.00 basis points, a monthly increase of 29.00 basis points, and a year - to - date decline of 36.00 basis points [22]. - Commodities: The Nanhua Commodity Index was at 2349.69, with a weekly decline of -1.62%, a monthly decline of -2.40%, and a year - to - date decline of -5.88%. The CRB Commodity Index was at 290.43, with a weekly decline of -2.10%, a monthly increase of 0.57%, and a year - to - date decline of -2.12%. COMEX Gold was at 3313.10, with a weekly decline of -1.57%, a monthly decline of -0.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 25.45% [23]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1953, with a weekly increase of 0.08%, a monthly decline of -0.93%, and a year - to - date decline of -1.42%. The US dollar index was at 99.4393, with a weekly increase of 0.32%, a monthly decline of -0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of -8.34% [26]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report includes data on the congestion index of 100 cities, the subway passenger volume of 23 cities, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 cities, the second - hand housing transaction area of 12 cities, passenger car sales, and the apparent consumption of rebar [28]. - Overseas: The report includes data on the Redbook commercial retail sales and the number of unemployment benefit claims in the US [32]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events for this week, including China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's May CPI annual and monthly rates, the US's May ADP employment data, and the US's May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI [39].