Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market opened strongly after the holiday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points, both reaching new highs since February 2022 [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the standout performer in the A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 77.56%, outperforming hardware equipment (59.07%) and semiconductors (58.74%) [2] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 6.67% [6] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Western Superconducting (688122.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), hit the daily limit up [6] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zhongjin Gold (600589.SH) reaching historical highs [6] Global Influences - International gold prices surged past $4000 per ounce, contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices, which reached 1160 yuan per gram [6] - The recent increase in prices for various non-ferrous metals, including copper, tin, cobalt, zinc, and aluminum, was noted during the holiday period [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "shaking upward" trend for the market in October, with expectations of continued inflow of capital and a stable upward trajectory for indices [8] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to influence market sentiment positively, while the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profitability across most sectors [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly oscillating strongly, with increased costs in each industrial chain link and firm bottom support. In Q4, the Indonesian nickel - ore policy is the biggest variable, and the new energy sector may continue to be strong. The cobalt price is expected to rise, supporting the MHP cobalt coefficient [1]. - For stainless steel in Q4, attention should be paid to the demand recovery trend. The continuous strength of ferronickel supports the bottom space, but the upward drive is insufficient. The end of Q4 usually sees a small uptick in demand. There is also a mild Fed rate - cut expectation [2]. - The expected core fluctuation range of Shanghai nickel in Q4 is [118,000 - 126,000] yuan/ton, with strong support at 115,000 yuan/ton. The core fluctuation range of stainless steel is [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Q3 Market Review - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly driven by multiple news stimuli. After the market reaction, the prices mostly returned to the oscillation range. High inventory and low demand constrained the upward movement, while the cost and production - cut expectations limited the downward space [6][7]. - From the beginning of Q3 to mid - July, the market was driven by macro and policy emotions. In August, sudden news from Indonesian parks and rumors about mine rights/quotas pushed the prices up briefly. In September, news stimuli and Fed rate - cut expectations affected the market, and the funds mainly took profit and reduced positions [6][7]. Group 4: Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In Q3, the nickel - ore market was relatively firm. In Indonesia, the mining pressure remained due to environmental reviews, and the supply was tight. In the Philippines, the production and shipment were at seasonal highs in Q3 but are expected to decline seasonally in Q4 [19]. - Policy disturbances in Indonesia may be the mainstream factor in Q4. New quota approvals are approaching, but supply release may be limited. The domestic trade ore price premium remains strong [19][20]. Ferronickel - In Q3, the ferronickel market gradually strengthened, with the price rising from 900 yuan/nickel point to 955 yuan/nickel point. The main reason was the increased acceptance of high - price ferronickel by stainless - steel mills [22]. - In Q4, the ferronickel market may be in a high - level oscillation, with limited upward drive. The supply may be affected by quota release and the rainy season, and the demand depends on the continuation of stainless - steel demand [22][24]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q3, the nickel - sulfate and intermediate market was mainly in a tight - balance state. The demand from downstream battery enterprises and the rising cobalt price supported the price [29]. - In Q4, the demand for nickel sulfate may continue due to the restocking needs of electric - vehicle and battery manufacturers. The price is expected to remain strong, and the new energy sector may support the nickel price [29]. Stainless Steel - In Q3, the stainless - steel market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the price mainly in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro and news stimuli, but the demand and inventory contradictions were not resolved [36]. - In Q4, the stainless - steel price depends on demand recovery, supply - side optimization, and policy implementation. The price is expected to be in the range of [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton, with fluctuations depending on production cuts and demand fulfillment [37][38]. Group 5: Q4 Balance Deduction - The profit game between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is intense. The supply is relatively abundant, and the main variable lies in new - energy demand. The demand shows differentiation, with limited marginal increase in stainless steel and expected marginal increase in the new - energy sector [48]. - The supply - demand balance depends on the performance of stainless steel in October and the further development of the new - energy sector. The demand in October is optimistic, and the year - end demand depends on new - energy demand growth [48].

Core Insights - The Indonesian government has taken control of approximately 148 hectares of land from PT Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world's largest nickel mines, citing violations of forestry permits, which has raised concerns about global nickel supply stability [1][4][6] - PT Weda Bay Nickel is a significant player in the global nickel supply chain, crucial for electric vehicle battery production, with a capital structure involving Chinese, French, and Indonesian stakeholders [2][3] - The government's actions are part of a broader strategy under President Prabowo's administration to increase national revenue from natural resources, reflecting a shift towards resource nationalism [9][10] Market Impact - Following the news, nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.3%, highlighting the market's sensitivity to Indonesian policy changes, given that Indonesia supplies over 50% of the world's nickel [7][8] - The incident underscores the structural vulnerability in the global green energy transition, where critical mineral supply is overly concentrated in a few countries, raising risks for electric vehicle and battery manufacturers [7][17] Strategic Implications - The government's actions signal a potential reevaluation of existing investment agreements and operational models for foreign companies, particularly Chinese and French firms [8][10] - The event illustrates a shift in Indonesia's mining regulation, where the government is transitioning from a passive role to an active one in resource management and profit distribution [10][19] Future Scenarios - Possible outcomes include negotiated settlements where PT Weda Bay Nickel may regain control through fines and compliance with environmental standards, or legal disputes that could strain relationships [13][14] - The government's strong intervention may lead to renegotiations of equity structures or profit-sharing agreements, further enhancing the role of state-owned capital [14][15] Global Supply Chain Considerations - The incident serves as a warning for global downstream industries, particularly electric vehicle and battery manufacturers, about the risks of over-reliance on a single geographic region for critical minerals [16][17] - It emphasizes the need for countries to prioritize strategic mineral reserves and supply chain security in an era where geopolitical factors increasingly influence resource availability [18][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on September 30, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in mining certificates, and light - position operations are recommended before the holiday [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are weakening [2][14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy expectations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 97,757 lots, down 65,749 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,760 yuan, down 80 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 275,456 lots, up 13,269 lots from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel production is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target. Some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month. There are also issues such as illegal mining crackdowns and forestry violations in nickel mines [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,920 yuan, up 1,040 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 465,591 lots, down 15,429 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2511 basis was - 370 yuan, down 1,090 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is building a lithium sulfate plant [12][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 392,702 lots, down 77,321 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2511 contract was 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - On September 25, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises to discuss policies for high - quality development [15] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250929: Low-level Fluctuation" [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 1,560 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 163,506 hands (-13,524), and the open interest was 83,884 hands (-15,758). The inventory increased by 48 tons to 25,153 tons [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,200 dollars (-270), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,155 dollars (-85), and the on - site closing price was 15,175 dollars (-104). The trading volume was 5,802 hands (-3,431). The LME nickel inventory decreased by 462 tons to 230,124 tons [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 85 to 100 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 175,317 hands (+45,420), and the open interest was 98,722 hands (-11,174). The inventory decreased by 298 tons to 87,505 tons [2] Spot Prices - The average prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, 304/2B stainless steel coils, etc., mostly decreased on September 26, 2025, compared to the previous day [2] Inventory Data - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 971 million wet tons (-12 million), SMM Shanghai保税区 nickel inventory decreased by 656 tons to 40,828 tons, and the total inventory of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel showed different trends [2] Group 3: Industry News - On September 25, 2025, the head of the Mineral and Coal Directorate General of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that about 35 trillion Indonesian rupiah of post - mining reclamation deposits had been raised from mining and coal enterprises. The compliance rate of enterprises in terms of reclamation deposits had increased from 39% to about 72% [2] - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang International Region held the opening ceremony of its 30,000 - ton electrolytic nickel production line, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Nickel - On September 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories tightened. On the demand side, demand for alloys and electrolytic nickel was stable. Considering that inventory pressure exists and the fundamentals are weak, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to gradually take profit on short positions [2] Stainless Steel - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, stainless steel production schedules in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. Cost - end prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. With relatively loose fundamentals but cost - end support and limited inventory pressure, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and watching [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction between pure nickel inventory accumulation and mine - end issues may increase medium - term volatility, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] - Stainless steel: Short - term supply - demand and cost factors are in play, steel prices will oscillate, and long - term buying at low prices has better cost - effectiveness [5] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and attention should be paid to the downward driving force of the market [27] - Polysilicon: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the policy implementation time [27] - Lithium carbonate: The increase in imported ore has slowed down the destocking of lithium carbonate, and prices will oscillate within a range [61] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel futures price closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,610 yuan/ton; the stainless steel futures price closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Indonesian nickel mine issues have increased market concerns, while global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply. The supply of pure nickel is increasing while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [4] - Stainless steel: Demand is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate consumption, while supply is expected to increase. The surplus has narrowed, but the upstream inventory is still high, and the steel price lacks upward momentum but has limited downside space [5] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [7] - Nickel - stainless steel: SMM nickel - iron inventory decreased by 14% month - on - month to 28,652 tons, and stainless steel factory and social inventories showed different trends [7] Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [8][9][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, and the spot price has risen. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price remained stable. The futures price closed at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday [27] Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon: Supply: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon support consumption, while the aluminum alloy and export markets are stable [28] - Polysilicon: Supply: The short - term weekly output remains high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. Demand: The silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the next restocking may occur in mid - October [29][30] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment will decline, and the price may test the cost line of Xinjiang small factories. It is recommended to short at high prices, with an expected price range of 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton next week [31][32] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have cooled, and the market has returned to fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see, with an expected price range of 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton next week [32] Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated within a range. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [61] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The weekly output reached a new high of 20,516 tons, and the Australian ore shipment increased significantly [62] - Demand: The domestic energy - storage market has exceeded expectations, and the cathode materials are accumulating inventory [62] - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the destocking speed has slowed down for three consecutive weeks [62] Market Outlook - The price will oscillate within a range. It is expected that the futures price will be between 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for arbitrage, and upstream factories are advised to increase hedging [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]