【导读】超硬材料板块表现活跃，AI应用方向走低 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 12月3日早盘，A股三大指数震荡调整。截至发稿，沪指跌0.15%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板 指跌0.16%。 | Wind热门概念指数 | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 培育钻石 | 超硬材料 | 错家销墨 | 工业金属 | 海南自贸港 | 能源设备 | 摩托车 | 通信设备 | 化肥农药 | 工程机械 | 0.72% | 7.62% | 4.66% | 2.06% | 1.34% | 1.29% | 2.31% | 1.25% | 1.05% | 0.83% | | 稀土 | 光模块(CPO) | 央企煤炭 | 半导体设备 | 磷化工 | 石油化工 | 钢铁 | 海运 | 基本金属 | 航空 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenyan Intelligent submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 1, after its prospectus submitted in the first half of the year became invalid at the end of November. The company faces significant performance fluctuations in 2024 due to high reliance on a single industry client, leading to pressure on gross margins and tightening cash flow [1]. Company Overview - Shenyan Intelligent, formerly known as "Pinyou Interactive," had previously applied for an A-share IPO in 2022 but withdrew the application in June 2024 after three rounds of inquiries. The company shifted its focus to the Hong Kong market, submitting its application in late May, which became invalid on August 28 [1]. - The company specializes in decision-making AI technology, focusing on AI applications in marketing and sales scenarios. According to its prospectus, it ranks first in the Chinese marketing and sales decision-making AI application market with a market share of 2.6% based on 2024 revenue, and fourth in the overall decision-making AI application market in China with a market share of 1.6% [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 277 million yuan, primarily driven by clients in the internet services industry. The revenue share from this sector rose from 24.2% in the same period last year to 43.2% [1]. - The prospectus indicates that the company is experiencing issues such as an imbalanced business structure, declining profitability, and tightening cash flow, along with some foreign exchange risks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to see an early "spring rally" in 2026, driven by positive factors from policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a focus on balanced allocation across growth and cyclical sectors [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The "spring rally" in early 2025 was characterized by a rebound after a quick drop in January, with major indices showing upward trends for two months [2] - Analysts believe that the "spring rally" in 2026 may be advanced due to a "learning effect" in the market and the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival, leading to potential early positioning by investors [2][3] - Historical analysis indicates that the performance of the "spring rally" is positively correlated with the overall market performance for the year, suggesting that sectors that perform well in December may underperform in the subsequent "spring rally" [3] Group 2: Sector Allocation - Institutions recommend a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors, with a focus on military, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [1][4] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-value growth areas such as aerospace equipment and the AI industry chain, while also considering cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals [4] - The technology sector is expected to maintain a long-term advantage, with particular attention on military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware for investment opportunities [4][5]

（一）市场回顾 本周全球股指普涨，纳斯达克指数、中国台湾加权指数和恒生科技指数领涨。A股市场方面，本周主要 指数多数收涨，微盘股、中证2000、创业板指涨幅居前。资金面来看，全A成交额已连续两周缩量，股 票型ETF资金整体净赎回，融资资金小幅买入。风格上，成长风格显著反弹，光模块、AI应用、锂电电 解液方向领涨；石油石化、银行、煤炭等红利板块下跌。大宗商品方面，金属价格上涨，伦敦现货白 银、LME铜创下历史新高；国内双焦弱势运行。 （二）市场展望：A股有望迎跨年行情布局期 展望12月，A股市场将步入国内外重要政策观察窗口，市场风险偏好或逐渐抬升，跨年行情迎来布局 期。海外方面，美联储降息概率较大，美元流动性担忧缓解和人民币汇率偏强运行，有利于外资增配中 国资产；国内方面，12月中上旬将召开政治局会议和中央经济工作会议，确定2026年经济发展目标和宏 观政策基调，反内卷、促消费、新质生产力等有望受益政策催化。以下几个方面是近期市场关注的重 点： 一、海外方面，12月美联储降息预期再起，美元流动性担忧缓解。一方面，上周五纽约联储主席威廉姆 斯表示"随着劳动力市场降温，近期仍有再次降息的空间"，其鸽派声音显著提振市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing DeepYuan Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time this year, focusing on AI applications in marketing and sales [1] Company Overview - The company is a leading decision-making AI technology firm in China, ranking first in the marketing and sales decision-making AI application market with a market share of 2.6% as of 2024 [1] - It ranks fourth in the overall decision-making AI application market in China with a market share of 1.6% [1] - The company has developed two flagship platforms, AlphaDesk and AlphaData, and plans to launch a new product line, DeepAgent, in 2025 [1][2] Product Details - AlphaDesk, developed since 2011, is an AI decision-making platform for digital advertising, enabling automated and optimized ad placements across multiple media platforms [2] - DeepAgent, set to launch in February 2025, will consist of a series of intelligent agent products aimed at enhancing marketing automation and decision-making quality [2] Client Base - The company has established a client base focused on large and medium-sized enterprises with complex decision-making needs, serving approximately 530 clients, including 89 Fortune Global 500 companies [3] - The company maintains high customer loyalty, reflected in a net revenue retention rate of over 85% for AlphaDesk and over 80% for AlphaData [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the six months ending June 30 for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 was approximately RMB 543 million, RMB 611 million, RMB 538 million, and RMB 277 million respectively [4] - The comprehensive income for the same periods was RMB 59.21 million, RMB 53.09 million, RMB 17.67 million, and RMB 6.50 million respectively [5] - The gross profit margins for these periods were 30.9%, 31.2%, 27.3%, and 27.1% respectively [6] Industry Overview - The AI application market in China is projected to grow from RMB 20 billion in 2020 to RMB 63.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7% [7] - The decision-making AI application market is expected to expand from RMB 10.6 billion in 2020 to RMB 34.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 34.3% [7] - The marketing and sales decision-making AI application market is anticipated to grow from RMB 6.2 billion in 2020 to RMB 20.3 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.0% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and market position of DeepAI, a decision AI technology company in China, which ranks first in the marketing and sales decision AI application market with a market share of 2.6% as of 2024 [1][2] - As of June 30, 2025, DeepAI reported revenues of approximately 277 million yuan, with profits increasing by 134.3% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating the effectiveness of the company's business model and development strategy [1] - The company is actively embracing AI and focusing on technology development, transforming AI breakthroughs into commercially scalable products, thereby solidifying its position as a pioneer in the emerging field of decision AI [2] Group 2 - The product matrix of DeepAI includes AlphaDesk, which focuses on public domain traffic acquisition and maximizes advertising effectiveness, and AlphaData, which enhances private customer management through data integration and lifecycle value operations [2] - The recently launched enterprise AI intelligent system, Deep Agent, combines intelligent agent technology with industry expertise to strengthen enterprise-level decision-making capabilities [2] - The Chinese decision AI application market is experiencing rapid transformation, with a projected market size of 34.5 billion yuan in 2024, expected to grow to 161.5 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36.2% from 2024 to 2029 [2]

Company Overview - Beijing Deep AI Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as Deep AI) has submitted its application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time in 2023, with ICBC International as the sole sponsor [1] - The company specializes in decision-making AI technology, focusing on AI applications in marketing and sales scenarios [4] - According to Frost & Sullivan, Deep AI ranks first in the Chinese marketing and sales decision-making AI application market with a market share of 2.6% based on projected 2024 revenue [4] Product and Technology - Deep AI has developed two flagship platforms, AlphaDesk and AlphaData, which are designed for intelligent advertising and data management [4] - The company launched DeepAgent, a series of enterprise AI agents, in February 2025, which integrates open-source large language models (LLMs) to enhance marketing automation and efficiency [5] - AlphaDesk, developed since 2011, is an AI decision-making platform for digital advertising, enabling automated and optimized ad placements across multiple media platforms [5] Client Base and Retention - The company has established a client base focused on large and medium-sized enterprises with complex decision-making needs and high levels of digitalization, serving approximately 530 clients, including 89 Fortune Global 500 companies [6] - Deep AI maintains high customer loyalty, reflected in a net revenue retention rate of over 85% for AlphaDesk and over 80% for AlphaData during the performance record period [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years ending June 30 for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was approximately RMB 543 million, RMB 611 million, RMB 538 million, and RMB 277 million respectively [6][10] - The comprehensive income for the same periods was RMB 59.2 million, RMB 53.1 million, RMB 17.7 million, and RMB 6.5 million respectively [7][10] - The gross profit margin for the years ending June 30 for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was 30.9%, 31.2%, 27.3%, and 27.1% respectively [8][10] Industry Overview - The AI application market in China is projected to grow from RMB 20 billion in 2020 to RMB 63.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7% [11] - The revenue scale of the decision-making AI application market in China is expected to increase from RMB 10.6 billion in 2020 to RMB 34.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 34.3% [13] - The marketing and sales decision-making AI application market in China is anticipated to grow from RMB 6.2 billion in 2020 to RMB 20.3 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.0% [15]

Group 1 - The upcoming central economic work conference in mid-December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, which may lead to a cautious optimism in the market [1][2][3] - December to January is identified as a favorable period for "spring market" positioning, particularly for sectors with positive earnings forecasts and less likelihood of negative surprises [1][3] - The adjustment in various sectors has reached an average of approximately 20% since September and October, making them candidates for observation in December [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut in December is likely to support sectors such as technology growth, consumer leaders, and non-ferrous metals [1][2][3] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to enhance the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially accelerating foreign capital allocation to the A-share market [2][5] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of frequent style switching, with a focus on structural trends rather than a broad market rally [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the market may see a significant recovery in risk appetite if unexpected positive policy announcements emerge from the upcoming meetings [1][2][3] - The focus on sectors such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer-driven industries is emphasized as potential beneficiaries of policy catalysts [4][5] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market has typically experienced a rally during the year-end and early January period, driven by seasonal effects and policy expectations [3][4]

Group 1 - The market adjustment has temporarily concluded, and December is an important macroeconomic window, suggesting early positioning for the spring rally [2][10][14] - The core driving force of the current bull market remains unchanged, with liquidity still in a loose state and the fundamentals undergoing mild recovery [10][18][23] - The recent market adjustment was primarily caused by the inability to form strong macro expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the transmission of overseas liquidity risks [10][12][14] Group 2 - The growth style is expected to continue, with historical data indicating a higher probability of style continuation rather than switching during market adjustments [3][25][26] - The current market environment is conducive to small-cap stocks, which tend to outperform in a loose liquidity context [4][28][30] - Small-cap stocks are likely to lead the next phase of the recovery due to their characteristics and the current macroeconomic conditions [4][28][34] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on a dual-driven approach of technology and cyclical sectors, with opportunities emerging in underperforming growth industries [5][39] - Specific sectors to consider include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside cyclical beneficiaries from PPI improvements [5][39] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and cyclical sectors to capture potential market movements [5][39]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a recovery phase, led by technology growth sectors, but with low trading volumes indicating high investor caution. Key macro events in December, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Central Economic Work Conference, are expected to be the main focus for the market [1][3][5]. Market Performance and Trends - The market has shown a rapid rotation among sectors in November, with technology and defensive sectors alternating in performance. The leading sectors for the month included banking, light industry, telecommunications, and media, while computing, automotive, electronics, non-banking financials, and pharmaceuticals lagged [5][6]. - Historical patterns suggest that accelerated sector rotation does not necessarily lead to systemic market adjustments, as market performance is more influenced by valuation levels and the ability of leading sectors to maintain momentum [6][8]. Currency and Foreign Investment - The Chinese yuan has shown a stable and slightly strong trend against the US dollar since November, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, stable China-US relations, and increased demand for currency settlement from export companies. This appreciation is expected to lower costs for import-dependent industries and improve conditions for companies with dollar-denominated debt [2][16]. - The appreciation of the yuan enhances the relative attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, potentially accelerating foreign capital inflows into the A-share market. Recent data indicates a significant increase in foreign investment in technology growth sectors, reflecting a growing recognition of China's technological capabilities [2][18]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is anticipated to provide critical guidance for the market, particularly if it introduces new policy directions related to specific industries. The last five years of cross-year market trends indicate that macro policy is a key driver of market movements, often leading to a shift from value to growth styles [3][15]. - The market is currently positioned for a potential cross-year/spring rally, with expectations of policy support for economic growth. However, the timing of this rally may be delayed due to the need for consensus building among investors [12][15]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, AI applications, and pharmaceuticals, as these areas are likely to benefit from policy support and market interest [3][15].