Core Viewpoint - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board is transforming the investment banking ecosystem, presenting greater challenges and higher requirements for business systems and professionals in the industry [2] Group 1: Investment Banking Transformation - Under the deepening of the registration system, the role of investment banks is shifting from "channel intermediaries" to "value partners," focusing on issuer positioning, project selection standards, and pricing system maturity as core issues of industry transformation [2] - Investment banks need to enhance three capabilities: value discovery and project selection, comprehensive service capability throughout the lifecycle, and pricing and sales capability in a new model of issuance pricing [2] Group 2: Future Plans - The company plans to continue focusing on "industrial investment banking" and "technology investment banking" as dual core positions, aiming to deepen regional and industry expertise while enhancing its value in serving technological innovation [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has abandoned the second round of layoffs for the second half of the year, with M&A revenue in Q2 soaring by 71% year-on-year [1] - JPMorgan plans to increase bonuses for its investment banking and trading departments by approximately 15% [1] - The investment management, insurance, and financial sectors in Hong Kong have fully recovered, ranking first globally, particularly driven by government support and policies in the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - There is a significant demand for ESG and green finance talent, as the Hong Kong government has initiated a "talent grab" plan to attract professionals in these fields due to a severe shortage [1][2] - The current market lacks professionals with both financial expertise and ESG knowledge, making such individuals highly sought after by financial institutions expanding their ESG business [2] Group 3 - The global sustainable finance market has exceeded $35 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $17 trillion, highlighting the financial impact of ESG [9] - Financial regulators worldwide are transitioning ESG disclosures from voluntary to mandatory, with over 60 countries expected to implement mandatory ESG disclosures by 2025, covering more than 80% of multinational companies [11][12] Group 4 - The introduction of mandatory ESG disclosures in China will require companies listed on major exchanges to disclose sustainability reports by 2026, with penalties for non-compliance starting in July 2025 [13] - The demand for ESG-related positions is increasing, with roles such as ESG investment analysts, green finance product managers, and ESG risk modelers emerging as top choices for financial professionals looking to transition [24] Group 5 - The rapid development of the ESG financial market in China has created a strong demand for ESG professionals, with local governments offering financial incentives for ESG practices [31][32] - Training courses and certification programs for ESG knowledge are gaining popularity, providing financial professionals with opportunities to enhance their skills and employability [33][34] Group 6 - The CFA Institute has introduced a Sustainable Investment Certificate, which is recognized in the industry and offers a comprehensive curriculum for newcomers to ESG [37] - The Registered ESG Analyst certification is gaining traction as an official ESG credential, with a lower difficulty level compared to the CFA certification, making it more accessible [39]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and extensive market coverage [1]. Research Insights - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through CICC Morning Report [4]. - Senior analysts offer real-time interpretations of market hotspots via public live broadcasts [4]. Research Reports - The platform offers over 30,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It features more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, enhancing the depth of analysis available [10]. Data and Research Framework - CICC's platform includes advanced AI search capabilities, allowing users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced that new tariffs on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries with existing trade agreements, maintaining a 15% tariff cap for partners like the EU and Japan [1][2] - President Trump declared a 100% tariff on all brand-name and patented drugs starting October 1, complicating the recently established U.S.-EU pharmaceutical tariff agreement [2][3] - European pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca, may benefit from exemptions if they have initiated drug production investments in the U.S., but most face new tariff barriers [2][3] Group 2 - The Belgian Pharmaceutical Association expressed concerns that the new tariffs violate the U.S.-EU agreement and could significantly impact multiple EU countries, creating uncertainty for investment decisions [3] - Economic analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley indicated that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for EU goods in the U.S., potentially passing the burden onto American consumers [4] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with predictions of only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than the expected 2.8% in 2024, partly due to the impact of tariff policies [4]

智通财经APP获悉，周五公布的最新美国经济数据，令所谓的"美国经济金发姑娘式的软着陆"这一乐观情绪开始主导全 球金融市场交易逻辑。最新公布的数据显示，8月份，在美国GDP测算中占据至关重要位置且在整体GDP接近70%比例 的"美国个人支出"连续三个月以稳健步伐扩张式上升，显示尽管通胀顽固，美国消费者们仍在为经济提供动力。 完美符合预期的PCE通胀数据，再加上被意外上修的美国Q2GDP数据，以及近期的初请失业金数据显示出劳动力市场 暂未进一步恶化，市场对于美国经济增长前景突然间变得非常乐观，尤其是市场对于美国经济"金发姑娘"式的软着陆预 期明显升温，与此同时市场对于美联储降息预期并未显著降温，仍然押注美联储10月与12月将继续降息25个基点。 值得注意的是，虽然核心PCE连续多个月符合预期且未呈现出上行轨迹，但是美国人仍在应对长期顽固的通胀，随着美 国总统唐纳德·特朗普主导的关税举措在美国经济中逐步传导，通胀存在长期维持相对高位的风险。 根据周五发布的美国经济分析局(BEA)数据，按通胀价格变动调整后的消费者支出上月增长0.4%，优于经济学家们普遍 预期的0.2%增幅，与经过上调之后的前值一致。美联储官员们长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Bitcoin flash crash is seen as the first signal of a market shift, indicating a potential slowdown in the previous three weeks of risk asset rally [1][4][6] Market Conditions - The past three weeks experienced a significant rally in risk assets, with momentum trading yielding notable returns, but the pace is now changing [1][4] - Bitcoin's flash crash led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, impacting nearly all major cryptocurrencies [1] - Bitcoin's price fell below $110,000, currently trading around $109,000, with the $110,000 level identified as a critical technical support [1][4] Macro Environment - The macro environment remains volatile, with consensus trades facing significant pressure, particularly those betting against the dollar and for a steepening yield curve [3][7] - There is a 50/50 split among market participants regarding concerns over inflation versus growth, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [7] Economic Forecast - The forecast for the U.S. economy includes a GDP growth of 2%, core PCE at 3%, and an unemployment rate of 4.5% by year-end [7] - The terminal interest rate is expected to approach 2.5%, with a pessimistic view on fiscal conditions [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming Fed rate cut cycle is anticipated, with predictions of three insurance rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut in October if non-farm payroll data continues to be revised downwards [9] - Factors such as the peak of tariff impacts, significant fiscal stimulus, and loosening financial conditions are expected to support risk assets [10]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs President Waldron expressed increased optimism regarding the outlook for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) due to a wave of consolidation across industries and private equity-backed transactions potentially accelerating [1] - In the first seven months of this year, global M&A deal volume reached $2.6 trillion, marking the highest level for the same period since the pandemic peak in 2021 [1] - Waldron noted that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will further stimulate M&A activity by lowering corporate funding costs [1] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals are considered quite strong, particularly in the United States, although trade and geopolitical factors pose headwinds for the global economy [1] - Waldron warned that the long-term fiscal situation in the U.S. is unsustainable, suggesting that better control of spending would benefit the health of the U.S. economy and system in the medium to long term [1]

花旗发表研究报告指，预期摩根士丹利第三季业绩强劲，有利的市场表现应可以促使稳健的财富管理业 绩；花旗又看到市场对大摩所有目光聚焦于30%税前利润率目标。考虑到背景，花旗认为大摩有可能达 成上述目标。花旗表示，虽然大摩第三季度税前利润率数字，主要取决于强劲市场表现驱动的费用收入 增长，但看到大摩在未来几个季度，将维持在29%范围，并在2027年底贷款渗透率、非咨询收入扩张 后，可持续超过30%。花旗最近与大摩管理层的会议后，对大摩建立的财富管理引擎印象更深，将其目 标价从130美元上调至155美元，评级"中性"。 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming PCE inflation report is crucial as it is expected to show a slight increase in inflation rates, with the annual rate projected at 2.7% for August, up from 2.6% in July [2] - The core PCE, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to remain stable at 2.9% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][5] - Recent economic data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy despite tariffs, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [4][5] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The PCE report is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3% in August, compared to 0.2% in July, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer prices [2] - The report will be closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on goods prices and the recent rise in service costs [2][3] - Economic indicators such as a 20% increase in new home sales and a decline in initial jobless claims suggest a robust economic environment, which may complicate the Fed's dual mandate of supporting employment while controlling inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Expectations - Financial markets are pricing in an 85.5% chance of a rate cut in October, down from 92%, reflecting uncertainty surrounding inflation data [6] - A higher-than-expected inflation report could lead to market declines, as it may deter the Fed from further rate cuts [6][7] - Analysts express concerns that if inflation remains elevated, it could derail plans for significant rate reductions in the coming months [5][6] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve and a significant GDP revision have strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold prices [8] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face resistance around $3752, with potential declines if they fall below key support levels [8] - Despite the bearish sentiment, there remains a possibility for gold to test historical highs if it can maintain levels above $3800 [8]

近期痛苦——从现在开始交易仍将⾛⾼；⾼盛的流动 专家 2025/9/23 12:59 近期的痛苦——交易量从现在开始保持⾼位；⾼盛的资⾦流动专家 | ZeroHedge 作者：泰勒·德登 2025 年 9 ⽉ 23 ⽇星期⼆ - 凌晨 1:25 我们密切关注市场的潜在阻⼒——季节性疲软、养⽼⾦⽉末抛售、企业处于封锁期（但预计流⼊年末的 资⾦将反弹）以及系统性资⾦流转为负值的迹象。 鉴于今年夏天我们看到的低波动⽔平，投资者已经对冲并增加了下⾏保护，但在这种环境下，我们认为 短期痛苦交易将从现在开始。 尽管其他⽀撑指标（即系统性指标）表现为中性，但 机构群体的平衡定位、资⾦流动以及迄今为⽌持续 的零售竞标以及下⽂概述的其他因素为逐步⾛⾼铺平了道路。 1. MF流⼊/流出 根据《全球投资报告》，过去40年中，美联储在维持利率六个⽉或更⻓时间后降息的情况有⼋次。在那些 未导致经济衰退（基本符合当前共识）的降息事件中，流⼊股票基⾦的资⾦在随后的12个⽉内增⻓了 6%，这⽀持了市场温和上涨的预期。 另⼀个要点是：在增⻓、⾮衰退的基本情况下， 标准普尔 500 指数 的六个⽉平均回报率为 +8%，⼗⼆ 个⽉平均回报率为 + ...